Can Coyote Smuggler Beat Boys in Cayuga Lake Special?
This Cayuga Lake Special, which will be run in upstate NY this week, is in it’s third season. Last year, No More Chavez won the race in a speed of 108. In 2009, Agnelo won the race posting a speed of 104. In both of these races, the winner won by ½-length or less. A very small amount to win by considering the field of 4 year olds and over will be running a distance of 2 miles on the dirt. There is a purse of $500,000 up for grabs in the G1 race which is open to all horses.
1 Stone Chicken 4-1
16f Record: none to date
A month ago, Stone Chicken put in a fine effort in the New Orleans Stayer (G3), making a late run but was unable to make it to the top spot, settling for second in a speed of 108 going 14 furlongs. His prior race was an easy win as the 4-5 favorite going 11f in the Exbourne’s Alert winning by 7 strides with a speed of 100, which could have been much higher. This turns out to be his lowest speed since June and discounting this race, his speeds have been 105 or higher. Should be competitive and maybe a bit underrated.
2 Stygiophobia 5-1
16f Record: 1 starts 0-0-1
So exactly what kind of phobia is Stygiophobia? It’s the fear of hell, so yes, there is a fear for everything. In 6 graded starts, this devil of a horse has one win to his credit, winning the 14f the Big Apple (g1) with a speed of 106 running 14f. It may not sound like a lot, but considering in his first 3 graded race Stygiophobia did not finish better than 8th and over his last 3 graded starts he has a win and two shows, he has improved vastly. I don’t think this horse has Atychiphobia, which is the fear of failure.
3 A. P. Assault 7-2
16f Record: none to date
A. P. Assault has won his last three starts and four of his last five. The one race preventing a 5-race win streak was his sole start on the turf in which he proved he is competitive on both dirt and grass. His last start was in the Old Man (G2) in which he was able to make it to the front just in time to win by a stride and a speed of 110. He will be going 2 miles for the first time and is fully capable of handling the extra quarter mile distance. His speeds have been very nice lately and are good enough to win
4 Wrisky Cat 7-1
16f Record: 2 starts 1-0-0
In December, Wrisky Cat finished dead last in the Big Apple (G1), although, based on the dismal speed of 66, appeared to have sustained some sort of injury. He was away from the track until mid February where he ran fifth in the New Orleans Stayer (14f) with a speed of 106. He’s been in 13 graded races appearing on the board only 3 times, two of which were wins. This record is far from being outstanding, however, this guy is 7 years old and all three of these finishes occurred during 2010. He may not be the best in this race, but he is capable of surprising.
5 Coyote Smuggler 4-1
16f Record: 7 starts 5-0-0
Since June, Coyote Smuggler has run in 14f and 16f exclusively, finishing first or second in each race. She’s on her own as she is the only gal in this race and takes on the boys. She’s won 6 of the 7 starts since June and this includes 5 consecutive graded stake wins. It can be argued that his biggest and perhaps best race was in November in the Breeders’ Bowl Dirt Marathon where she was 9th entering the final turn, nearly a dozen lengths off the leader and he rallied hard and strong to win by 2. Coyote has won 7 graded races thus far and is fully capable of adding his 8th with this start.
6 Run the Bases 10-1
16f Record: 1 starts 0-1-0
Run the Bases’ current form concerns me. In his last four races, his speeds have been in the mid-90’s. He has one career race at 16 furlongs, and that occurred during this stint. He finished second in the High Five II Special, which isin’t bad, but he finished 5 lengths back and was the overwhelming favorite at 1-2. I’m not sure what is going on with this horse as he is capable of hitting speeds of 105 up to 109. He may need a rest but it could also be his age as he has just turned 8.
7 Jolly DM House 11-1
16f Record: 19 starts 9-2-1
This 7-year old is an expert in running the 2 mile route. Jolly DM House has also made 13 appearances in graded races, collecting 3 wins, all coming at the two mile distance. He returns to the graded level for the first time since June and he has struggled quite a bit in the higher racing levels, however, has been very competitive in allowance races, where he’s been racing since July. Speeds have tumbled, being in the mid to upper 90 range since June and this front runner will need to pick it up a bit to show he can still compete at this level.
8. Beret 8-1
16f Record: none to date
Beret made his debut at the graded level in January in the 14 Old Man. In this race, he recorded his lowest dirt speed of 88 since being maiden and finished last. This race is surrounded by two stake races where he won a 12f with a 101 and a 10.5f with a 106 rating. Hard to tell if he disliked the track, the jockey, the distance, the competition was too much or if he just had an off day in that race. Right now, I’m passing but I do believe he’ll improve in the speed category.
9 Mescalito 11-1
16f Record: 2 starts 2-0-0
In 5 graded races, Mescalito has a pair of wins, both coming at the two mile distance. He’s won both the Kegstand and the Hit Man in the later part of 2010 hitting speeds of 103 and 102. This guy has early speed, however in the Hamburg Hall and the Old Man, (both 14f), he failed to get to the lead in both and pretty much floundered. These races just mentioned were his last four starts with very varied results. While he seems to excel at 16f, the 14f races aren’t that much different and his form has not been consistent throughout. Despite liking the longer distance, he’s too much risk for my liking.
Coyote Smuggler is the #1 ranked female in the long dirt race category. She has beat the boys many times before at the graded level. No reason to think that she can’t do it again and this doll loves the 2 miles.
A. P. Assault has very good speed numbers running a mile and a half or greater. This will be his first 2 mile race and I can’t find any reason why he won’t do well in this start, thus he’s my second choice.
Stone Chicken looks like a nice fit in this race but jockey selection of Solomon (1 win in 62 starts) is horrible. Still, horse has some class and earns third spot.