Felipe Alou Stakes – Grade II
This Saturday’s top race at California is the Grade II Felipe Alou Stakes. Held at 8.5 furlongs on the dirt, the race has drawn a full field of 14 high-class 3yo colts, all of whose connections are almost certainly hoping that their colt is “the one” that gets his game completely together at Kentucky on the First Saturday in May and finds glory in the Bluegrass Derby. Let’s have a look at this solid field of precocious youngsters:
ELITE STATUS lasthope 10/1 O Brim (23%)
In just his fourth career start, this fine-looking specimen by Malibu Moon improved greatly to finish a strong 3rd in a Grade I at New Jersey in the slop. It’s really hard to tell this early in his career cycle; was the huge improvement because of the slop, or is it from a fast learning curve? Can he do this again? His dam was a Grade I winner who performed well on off-tracks, and his half-brother is a Grade I winner who also runs well on off-tracks, but on the grass for the most part. Today’s jockey is having a banner year and the trainer is one of the best… Lots of plus factors at nice odds.
COWPERS TUNE theprofit5 14/1 F Gossett (26%)
This guy is still eligible for NW2L allowances, but has picked up a $240k bankroll and a #12 ranking while finishing close in several big races. Son of Not For Sale hasn’t backed down from anyone, and tries top runners again. Tough spot for him to crack through to the winner’s circle, but it wouldn’t be that big a surprise to see him with a chance at getting some cash, especially with this rider aboard.
GEORGIE THE MOOCH 4stardave 6/1 A Lewis (12%)
The champ of the Grade II Eruption Stakes took seven weeks off after that impressive victory, then showed little in last month’s return at Vermont. Look for a return to previous form for this #15-ranked son of Distorted Humor. Would like to see a stronger rider on board, though Lewis is no slouch.
MONEYINDYTREES cheadle 7/1 M Lannoo (20%)
The first of three “Indy pun” names in the field… This one has never missed the board in five starts, and ran a pretty solid 3rd in a Grade II at this track last time out. The A.P. Indy colt out of an A-rated mare gets a little-used journeyman rider here (only 10 mounts in 2011) but has a top-level trainer. Tough call.
RUNNING SENSE fatz 12/1 L Snyder (20%)
This son of Street Sense is a speedy one, but has had trouble getting two turns successfully. This one started his career in great fashion with three consecutive wins, but has found things a lot tougher lately. He will have to go some to contend in this bunch.
BORN INDY USA desimster3 7/1 L Jones (19%)
More Indy puns! This one has already proven himself as a top-class sprinter, but takes another shot at two-turning here after a dominant, fast 7-furlong win at this track last time out. Veteran rider seems to have found a bit of a groove this year; maybe he get this A. P. Indy colt to hang on better here.
NEON LEON plugger03 11/1 F Griffen (6%)
This son of Johannesburg finished his 2yo season with a bang, pulling off three consecutive wins while blowing right through his allowance conditions with ease. This year hasn’t been quite the same. A solid 2nd in a small stakes was followed by a poor performance in the slop in his graded-stakes debut. However, the track was a quagmire. Was it the conditions or the company that caused his bad day? Good question…
GIANT’S KING kilbirnie 14/1 T Bates (9%)
This quick son of Kingmambo has spent much of his career beating up on small fields of mostly overmatched allowance foes, but was tested (and beaten) in his stakes debut last time. High-percentage trainer normally places his horses in the easiest spots he can find, but takes a shot at the bigtime here.
FASHION POLE pirates 12/1 M Staples (20%)
This son of Old Fashioned certainly doesn’t lack experience, having made four graded-stakes tries at this track, winning one and finishing a very close-up 5th in another. Ranked #11, this guy is a tough one to figure out. In his favor, he draws an excellent rider.
POKER TABLE chloedawg4 15/1 J Dekeyser (0%)
Interesting pair here… Horse has never lost, jock hasn’t won this year. This scratch-bred son of A. P. Indy has just two starts under his belt, but his runs have been impressive enough to convince his connections to make the push for a Derby berth, probably a start or two too early. This one will be interesting to watch as the season goes on, but this is a tall order.
BLIND SONNY onalark 6/1 F Allen (0%)
This son of Rock Hard Ten started off his career with three impressive wins, then took much of the winter off before returning with a strong showing in his graded-stakes debut last time. His connections wish they had been able to do better in the rider search, but have high hopes for this precocious colt.
SISSON’S WINNER v8mullet 14/1 GV Vincent (27%)
This Medaglia D’Oro colt has been a real “cardiac kid” thus far in his career, with a nose win and three very close misses. He tries much toucher here. Jockey’s 27% mark is in very limited action; he’s actually a 9% journeyman.
INDIAN’S KISS blankpoin4 13/1 R Young (0%)
This Indian Charlie colt bombed pretty badly in his graded-stakes debut last time, and hopes for a better showing here were dealt a hard blow when the jockey draw was revealed. A lot to ask here.
INDY DRIVER’S SEAT lslives 10/1 R Simcox (6%)
Whaddaya know.. another Indy pun! This particular son of A. P. Indy has only four starts under his belt, but they’ve been impressive. His most recent demonstrated a huge closing kick that could come in handy here. Of course, he hasn’t faced a field of this quality before.
Handicap:
BLIND SONNY has the most cards in his deck and should improve in the 2nd start after a layoff.
GEORGIE THE MOOCH also should come up strong after the tightener.
BORN INDY USA is the top speed horse, but will be looking for an oxygen tank in the stretch and will need a big lead to have a chance to hang on.