Bargain Bred Series – Cemetary Winter Distaff

The Cemetary Winter Distaff Bargain Bowl race for fillies and mares has a terrific field of ten lined up for today’s race including past champions from 2008 and 2009. The 2010 division lead is currently tied at 16 points between last year’s champ Slave to Tradition and rival Meat Cleaver who has had an excellent campaign. The one that finishes ahead of the other will be crowned division champion and get the bulk of the 250,000$ purse. Let’s meet today’s field.

1.       Mcgahee – Six year old Cali bred has had an interesting but uneven career over her life. She has failed to make any major noise in the Bargain Series events after several attempts so everything would have to go her way today to play a factor in the race.

2.       Whatdya Expect – Whisper trained 4 yr old daughter of Brief Truce (Irish River) makes her bargain series debut on the biggest of stages. She has 6 wins in 16 lifetime races and is in good form off of an alw win at 8.5 furlongs where she posted a 99 speed figure in the process. Her speed figures say she can be competitive so she is an interesting factor and a bit of an unknown in today’s race which the public obviously likes as she is the 3-1 co-favorite today.

3.       Meat Cleaver –Axe trained entry finished 5^th beaten 13 lengths in the 2009 edition of this race but perhaps she did not take to the water in Mexico because she has become a totally different horse in 2010. Finished 2^nd in the Death Valley Distaff to Slave to Tradition but then impressively turned the tables winning the Bargain Summer Distaff by 1 ½ lengths over that same rival 3 back. Form has nose dived last 2 races but I suspect the shorter distance was the main culprit and she should thrive at today’s longer distance. From an odds perspective I can not believe she is 11-1 and she is definitely the wagering value of the race.

4.       Mileish – Axe’s 3 yr old mare has progressed some speed wise since her near miss in April’s Ozark Diamond race so that makes her a live play as a young horse on the improve today. She will likely have to improve her speed figs another 6-8 pts to win the day today but stranger things have happened.

5.       Slave to Tradition – Won last year’s edition in good ole Mexico setting the Winter Cemetery Distaff speed record in the process with a 102 figure. Has managed 3 series wins and 4 additional place/show finishings so she has had a solid campaign although not up to her 2009 gold standard. Was leading in the newly created mile division but passed a chance for glory there to try and repeat in the Filly & Mare Dirt division which she will do as long as she bests perpetual rival Meat Cleaver. Should once again fire but question is can she hold off a big late effort from one of the other proven runners that will seek to dethrone her.

6.       Scapola – Plano’s daughter of Blazonry (son of Hennessy) finished a non threatening but even 5^th in the Bargain Summer Distaff and has plodded along in the claimer/starter ranks since that time. Hard to get too excited about her chances since she has proven she is not quick enough to contend with today’s foes and her recent form appears suspect.

7.       Nuremberg Trial – PA Bred has been a steady bargain series performer with career in the money finishes in bargain events. She finished 4^th beaten 12 lengths in last year’s Cemetery Winter Distaff vs. many in today’s field. She has primarily raced at the 12 furlong distance since that day and she has been respectable in the allowance ranks so it is a bit of a surprise for her not to try the Marathon event today. She should be up front early pace wise but it is hard to see her hanging on to pick up a check as the 25-1 long shot in today’s race.

8.       London Guest – Trainer Dragnil has aggressively run this 4 yr old daughter of London News as she already has 30 lifetime races under her belt coming into this race. She has been in the money 18 times which is consistency you like to see but she has never been able to gain a foothold in the Bargain Series finishing well beaten in most of her attempts. Hard to forecast a breakthrough here today against this top field.

9.       Cuvee Power – Lgbost’s 7 year old mare by Schossberg (Broad Brush) has been running high 90s speed figures (and even broken 100) and loves a route of ground so she is very dangerous today. She is returning to the scene of her biggest glory where in 2009 she finishes 2^nd in this race only one length off of the winner. She makes a powerful late move but I think she is at a big tactical disadvantage given her running style and everything is going to have to go her way today to get in the winner’s circle.

10.   Rundo – Hawkz’ 6 yr old daughter of Wando was the 2008 winner of this race, finished 7^th in 2009 and now gives it another go. She has amassed 322k in 35 lifetime races and her form is a bit perplexing having run a 102 speed figure 3 back while still giving off form indications.  Hard to know which Rundo is going to show up today but it is hard to get overly excited based on her recent series efforts.

Prediction:

Look for the same old contenders to fire big today and round out the trifecta. Slave to Tradition is my pick to win and Meat Cleaver/Cuvee Power should round out the trifecta with big late moves. The one intriguing horse that could play spoiler is series newcomer Whatdya Expect who could be any sort and for that reason is getting solid support at 3-1 but I’ll need proof before backing her at that low price.

Thanks to everyone who participated in this year’s Bargain series races and knightmare for putting on the show.