Point/Counterpoint: The Breeders Bowl Juvenile
Every year that I’ve been doing these write-ups for the BTB on Breeders Bowl Day, I’ve picked a different race to cover. It helps, believe it or not, because it gives you a perspective on what it takes for a horse to compete in the Sim’s ideal of top-flight racing, and it gives an idea of just what needs to be done as a trainer to get to that level, when you can expect to spend each fall plotting a course to send your best to go up against the game’s best.
The juvenile division always seems to hold more potential for great stories than most others. There’s less racing to examine as evidence, but there’s more and better ways to speculate, not just for a November in Kentucky, but also for roses in May. Who shows up now, and who will show up in May, and will those trains cross? History is now staunchly against it: in the history of the Grade I, $2,000,000 Breeders Bowl Juvenile, only two horses ever pulled off the Juvenile/Derby double, and it hasn’t happened since 2002, when Tower Storm won the Bluegrass Derby:
2009 Curling (6th, Bluegrass Derby)
2008 Tiz Smokin Now (19th)
2007 Fleet Daisy (7th)
2006 Degoldenstorm (14th)
2005 Half A World Away (7th)
2004 Cader Ydris (16th)
2003 Chamberlain (-)
2002 Credit Buster (-)
2001 Tower Storm (1st)
2000 Buda With The Slew (1st)
1999 Yodel Elf (7th)
1998 Dyna Form (9th)
These days, with most trainers angling to take a spot in the Bluegrass Derby regardless of whether the horse has the proper form or abilities to handle that race, it’s not too often we’d have a Chamberlain or Credit Buster, who won this race but skipped the Derby the following year. But it also doesn’t feel, due to an early racing calendar at 2 and the tendency to try and step lively with a promising newcomer instead of going slow and steady, as if a horse is in any danger of pulling a double these days. Still, talent will out, and the dream is always within the reach, if not always within the grasp, of the trainers and horses willing to take a shot.
And to say this doesn’t mean the crops of juveniles we see in the Juvenile each year are not talented. It can be said that with each year going by, the talent pool isn’t shrinking overall. With the expanded stakes schedule, it gets easier for a horse to get those important stakes points in any number of juvenile stakes, and often the hot hands grab more than their share leading into this race, which more likely than not plays a role into determining the two-year-old champion. This year, Spirit Of Boom, Charlie In The Box and the top-ranked colt Joya have all won two graded stakes, with all but four horses winning at least one graded race. All but one of the top 14 juveniles are here, with Mayfield Marauder winning a Grade III just last weekend. It’s entirely possible we could be talking in May about him instead of the winner of this race, but when it comes to the Breeders Bowl, sometimes there comes a day when you expect the unexpected. The same can be said for the write-ups of the races.
For this year’s BTB write-up, I wanted to try something a little different. The writer of any article is entitled to his or her opinion without question, but sometimes it can be like pulling teeth. Sometimes we don’t want to be wrong, to alienate anyone if our opinion is too out of the norm or too sharp for sensitive ears. Sometimes we just don’t know what it is we like. We can’t express it in a clear and concise manner, and sometimes we might be afraid of venturing out of our boxes to stand up for something. So this year, in an attempt, like you’ve been seeing the last few weeks in the BTB, at stepping outside the usual “I like so and so” write-up, I enlisted the help of someone who has never been afraid to state something, who means what he says exactly when he says it, and isn’t afraid of criticism or insult in the event he happens to be right, or wrong, or just expresses something unpopular.
You all know Greg, aka kaif, right?
There are some folks who might be wondering if I’m nuts. Speaking generally, we’ll allow the question.
I chose Greg because he’s someone I respect, who knows how to be successful at the Sim. He’s got opinions, and he is simply unafraid to share them with people. I think he has unique insights into the Sim, its players and its horses, and even if I might not agree with all of his opinions, he won’t beat around the bush, which is a good thing, in order to get at the unvarnished truth. For some of you, it might not seem worth the trouble, and that’s your right. But I think it’s better sometimes to have more than one insight into a race, because it can make you see something you might not otherwise have noticed for yourself. Besides, in the Sim shed, I’m not always the sharpest tool. Until I win an Eclipse Award as a trainer, I can’t say I’ve mastered noticing the ins and outs in the very nuanced way the Sim has been known to operate.
I asked Greg to give me some of his insights on the horses running in this year’s Juvenile. He was very gracious in taking time out to give me his assessments, which are included in the bold italic print. Mine will be the blather in normal print. Compare, contrast, and reach your own conclusions, as we take a look at this year’s Breeders Bowl Juvenile field, going a mile and a sixteenth over a fast track.
Tadpoles Doing It [Fan The Flame-Asphodel Meadows, by A.P. Indy, trained by add for Cmd Stables]
I think it can safely be said we haven’t seen an Arkansas-bred on the main stage of racing like this in a mighty long time. He’s bred top and bottom for a distance of ground; his sire was a mainstay on the Midwestern circuits around the turn of the millennium, and was a half to a speedy sprinter/miler mare, Incinerate. The dam was nothing special, but in the breeding shed, she’s been a rarity, in that she’s produced a stakes-placed full sister to this winner of the End Of The Line Futurity last month. Greg’s take: “Interesting win in the End of the Line. Place and show runners in that G1 were already graded winners going two turns. Huge indicator that the win was legit. However, I can’t get past the fact that he’s never run a good race on a fast track; He’s 0 for 5 on fast dirt, 2 for 2 in the slop. It’s not looking like rain, and I’m going to guess he’s going to regress to his fast track form and not be a contender here.” I think we agree here, because 2-for-2 in the slop is nothing to sneeze at, but the fast-track form doesn’t…well, hold water. The distance shouldn’t be a problem regardless of weather, as the two routes on dry tracks were modest and no real disgrace, including a fair fourth in the Buckeye Juvenile behind Confidently Wrong, and tactically, he prefers coming from well off the lead. This should serve him well over Kentucky’s surface: the last couple of years in California for the Breeders Bowl, speed had been holding up very well, with gate-to-wire winners of the last two Juveniles. Kentucky’s Breeders Bowls have, for the most part, been more forgiving to closers such as Buda With The Slew, though tactical speed has also played a good role here before. The pace scenario this year seems a bit dodgy, however, with just one early-speed type expected to take control early on, and you can make a case for four or five different horses perhaps getting close to the lead without supplying a ton of pressure, and that’s not a scenario that feels favorable to a staunch closer. I don’t underestimate his abilities at getting the distance, but there’s never been a winner of this race whose previous race was on a wet track which gave him a speed-figure boost—in other words, whatever he gleaned from the muddy track last out probably only confirms he likes it wet. His jockey, Gossett from California, did win on Buda With The Slew, but even with an experienced jock, I’m more in agreement with Greg: a nice horse, should like these shorter middle distances going forward, but without the mud, even his highly competitive speed figure of 94 might not be enough to sustain himself against an excellent field.
Confidently Wrong [Encosta De Lago-Howdoyoulikemenow, by Forty Niner, trained by torrential for Desperado Stables]
I’m actually loving the pedigree for the grass, which curiously he hasn’t tried; he’s by one of Australia’s leading sires, with Nureyev as a DDS, and when he might step on to the lawn, he might be able to keep up his striking form. The dam has turned out a slew of horses, all winners, including a stakes-placed sprinter, and seems malleable to just about any sire, and breeding her back to the Northern Dancer-line here seems to have paid off. Greg is bullish on her chances here: “I don’t want to get all googly-eyed about the stinking Buckeye Futurity, but… it was a hell of a prep race. This guy came back to dominate an allowance (as a prep for this). Second place finisher Indy Appeal came back to duplicate his fig in the Sparkling Wine (and it’s worth noting he was clear on the lead in the Buckeye and had to fight tooth and nail most of the way in the Sparkling Wine). Third place finisher Romeo’s Touch has run back to his fig in the Buckeye. Fourth place finisher Tadpoles Doing It won the End of the Line next out. Fifth place finisher Open Pit Ted ran a close third in the Sparkling Wine. It was a legit race and a legit fig and he has the benefit of having had an easy run last out (does that matter in the Sim? Hell if I know, but it can’t hurt). Four straight dominating wins, improving and legit figs, and a graded winner at this distance. I see no flaws and he’s got to be one of the favorites.” And his trainer is also enthusiastic; the Sim’s own desperado says that this is his first BB starter, and that “once he hit the route distance, he exploded, so I entered him in the G3 Buckeye Juvenile with no real consideration of the Breeders Bowl. He easily handled the distance and was able to hold on for the win. However this put me at a conundrum – it was 9 weeks to the BB: too far for me to want to train him up to it, but too short for the type of prep I wanted. After much consideration and discussion with some other simmers, I decided to run him in an allowance race as a pure prep. He was the odds-on favorite and won very easy.” Everyone seems bullish about him, so why do I feel a little bearish (no pun intended)? Very talented, solid bloodlines, should be able to run all day, and had a few good preps along the way, such as that Buckeye Futurity, and yet I’m a bit cooler towards his chances. He clearly has a strong turn of foot late, as he showed in the Buckeye, the added ground benefits him, and he has dominated his last two efforts, but that’s the problem, I think. He faced an overmatched field in that allowance, won at will, but the speed figure of 82 leaves me a little cold. In four-horse fields, featuring a heavy favorite looming over a far weaker field, you expect a dip in the number to represent doing just enough to tighten a horse up, or just to win without getting overextended. Considering the easy win in that allowance by a promising two-year-old graded winner, though, I guess I was expecting a little more. In a larger or better field, maybe that speed figure would have climbed into the low-90s, but maybe not; it’s tough to say. The 90 in the Buckeye, given how that race has turned out to be key in certain ways, also seems oddly low to me, but for September it certainly looks sparkling. The question is about how he’s going to handle a step up in class, and I don’t just mean from that NW4y to a $2 million Grade I; the Buckeye, for the world of good it did the first few finishers, seems to have missed a few names that could have added more luster to the achievement. Also, though a number of runners did match or exceed their speed figures in the subsequent start, there was still room for improvement to be had; Romeo’s Touch was soundly beaten last weekend in a Grade III over this track, while Indy Appeal, another promising juvenile who has yet to earn his stripes while routing, earned his career-best figure as the main speed in the Sparkling Wine, and faded to fifth. Despite my misgivings, I do also see future upside stretching out, and I believe he’ll certainly have a say in the finish, though I believe he might need to lie a bit closer to the front than he did in the Buckeye. And there’s some good news trend-wise: Tiz Smokin Now also used the Buckeye as a springboard to a Juvenile win in 2008, while Dyna Form went from an allowance directly to a Juvenile win in the first Breeders Bowl. That said, I need a little more convincing about his skills at this level, and while that allowance can’t have hurt him, I’m not sure that tightener may have done all that was intended to prep for this.
Rollin Sevens [Tapit-Harmonicat, by Awesome Again, trained by jetforhome for Bigjet Stables]
There’s not a lot that is terribly special about the pedigree, in the sense of style; he’s by Tapit from a he-mare by leading sire Awesome Again. Tapit is having a strong Sim 2010 season, though, earning his first graded stakes winner in three years, and with five stakes winners in this crop, the most since his debut at stud, when he had 12. Of this nick, this is only one of seven, and it’s the most successful version of the pairing thus far. This colt has shown enough talent to scrap his way to #15 in the division, thus earning by default the last spot in the field by virtue of a third-place finish in the North Fork Stakes last out, behind Fashion Pole and Cowpers Tune, who both also will run here. Greg didn’t have a lot to say about him: “Outrun by 6+ in the North Fork last out by both Fashion Pole and Cowpers Tune. Will need to improve noticeably and have others not improve or regress. Could hang around for a bit, but is a longshot.” There’s little room to disagree here because, though the North Fork was his graded debut and he did finish third, he didn’t seem to be doing much in it. He sat just ahead of mid-pack, passed the fading speed horse late to gain third, but lost ground near the wire to the top two finishers, which doesn’t give off a lot of confidence. His speed figures are a cut below the others at their best, and his pedigree is suggesting that there are limits to his endurance and that a mile might be his uppermost boundary. In his favor, maybe? His early speed. He won his debut sprinting wire-to-wire, and showed speed winning an August allowance at a mile. Plus, there isn’t a lot of natural speed to be had here, conceivably opening this race up for a steal on the front end, or at least more pressure than anticipated on Joya. But there’s even a downside to that, because that allowance win featured horses bred in Arkansas, Washington and Ohio. I’m open-minded about regionally-bred horses, but I also know that if you’re beating them with ease but still just earning a speed figure of 74 your first try at a mile, it’s just not the best arbiter. Still, finishing third in a Grade I and making your way into this field on merit is an achievement in itself, and it could also be we haven’t seen this horse find his niche tactically, since he’s been no worse than third, and no further back than four lengths, in the early stages of any of his starts. If he’s a deep closer, might he step it up? It’s hard enough to call this scenario without speculating to excess, but we know he’s shown speed, and that he’s sat chilly much of the time, including the North Fork. That just might end up being his only role in here, barring a major sea change in his tactics. He’s up against it, I’m afraid, and he might be better off turning back into a sprint from here.
Me Gusta [Van Nistelrooy x Habitat, trained by wendel for Emax Public Stables]
I’ve been in the Sim over six years now, but I still don’t know much about Van Nistelrooy (like, how to pronounce his name) except that he’s a half to Halory Hunter and was a Group winner in Ireland. In the Sim, he seems to be turning out dirt sprinters by the handful, and produced a graded winner in last year’s crop, only his second overall. The dam-sire, Habitat, is a European mainstay of the turf from 40 years ago who passed while an active sire in 1987. I find myself intrigued by the fact he’s not tried the grass with his back end being more conducive to that, but considering the limited success rate in the stats, maybe I’m not too surprised. Anyway, this colt woke up in his debut at a mile in the Sparkling Wine last out, behind the top dog in the juvenile division, Joya. Let’s throw it to Greg: “Good second to Joya last out. Previous start was a good sprinting second to the very fast filly Rhiannon II. If he improves at all off his last, he could certainly win. It was a jump in figs, but that’s how you win big races as a 2yo – improving at the right time at the key distances. This might be the spot for him. Only real concern I suppose is that he’s never won a stakes race at all – won his first two career starts and his next four starts, all grades, he settled for two seconds and a fourth.” He certainly did spring to life…even if it was in a loss to Joya. Either Joya is that good, or this colt is peaking at exactly the right time. It wasn’t perfect by any stretch, as he was sitting about six lengths out, and could only make up four lengths on Joya after a well-run mile, but it boosted his speed figure best to a new high, and improved 10 points on his second in the Grade II Closest Friend. It was a solid run, but some things concern me beyond that effort. Like, how good is Joya, that even a closer wasn’t making much inroads late on him after he’d been on the front end most of the way? It was clearly a quality wake-up call, but how much of that was his ability at a mile when his sire hasn’t been knocking routers out of the park since his first crop? The first-stakes-win angle isn’t such a big deal anymore, since Fleet Daisy played that to a win three years ago. But the 94 just seems a little hazy. Go back to the Closest Friend, won by Rhiannon II as Greg cited. Six of the top seven finishers in that race achieved a career-best speed figure last out there as well, including Rhiannon II’s near-miss in the Frickazee with a similar bump. She’s a very talented filly, but she, too, seems more bred for sprints than for these routes, hence the second last out, although a very solid one. It’s not to detract from such a good run as this one had coming back in the Sparkling Wine, where I think he was just outfinished by a very talented colt, but I’m not sold on his abilities at a mile, even if the Closest Friend was a strong enough effort to give him a huge push going forward. As a side note, his only start over this track was a poor run in the Manor Of Bashford back in July, so perhaps there might be a little anti-track bias at play? Regardless, he’s a talented colt who seems on the verge of putting it all together, but I’m not certain he’s quite ready for the show at this particular distance. He may pop turning back, or I may be wrong, but I sense a certain bounce last out that might not last here. Still, I think the graded runs were mostly honest ones, in terms of the fact they show he belongs at this level; it’s now just a matter of placement and direction looking ahead.
Bragging Rights [Pulpit-Checkered Demon, by Storm Cat, trained by mtkdynasty for Shamrock Stables]
The Pulpit-Storm Cat nick is one of the more successful angles you can find. Hell, even I have one (that I bought at auction) who just ran a 118 in the slop a couple of weeks ago. The nick is 4-for-8 this year alone for this crop of juveniles. Even in real life, it’s a pretty solid nick, with Sky Mesa and Parading being the most successful out of multiple attempts. I don’t think mtk or the diabolical super triad would mind me saying that the dam was a real cow, but she’s another G mare who has turned out a graded winner and a graded-placed half by Distorted Humor in just two crops, further selling the point that an excellent pedigree can sometimes trump being one of Wisconsin’s finest on the track. As for the colt, he owns a little braggadocio in the Pea Patch, the Grade III he won by a half-length, and he acquitted himself nicely in the mud in the End Of The Line last out…or so one might think on paper. According to Greg, “Two starts back he barely ran down Consciousness in the Pea Patch when Consciousness got clear into the stretch (Consciousness got run past pretty easily next out vs. Fashion Pole in the North Fork). Last out couldn’t keep up with slop loving (so I say) Tadpoles Doing It. Silver Moonshine (close third in the Pea Patch) hasn’t come back to do much either. Fourth place runner Cross Me Once may end up being a mudder. That win was kinda weak for a Grade 3. I’m not sold on the muddy second in the End of the Line… I actually liked this colt at first glance, now I’d need a pretty strong price (for a horse with a win and a second in two graded starts going two turns…) All that said, his dam has thrown two pretty good colts for being a 1 for 15 slug on the track that never ran over an 84.” I think the mud also played a role for him, but then, Pulpit’s foals in mud seems made of win. Anyway, the bump he got wasn’t out of character, up seven from his previous best. But the fields that he has been facing really haven’t been that strong. Toss the restricted races, as those tend to throw a wrench into viewing the horses on class (for the record, a couple of intriguing horses appeared in each restricted race, but they seem to be going in different routes than this one). Overall, the races have been good ones, but without a ton of class testing going on, as Greg pointed out. None of this talk bothers mtk, though: he’s an ardent Pulpit admirer. “I have supported Pulpit a lot this year and this is my best one, so I have high hopes for him in the BB Juvy…and this one showed nice ability right out of the gate. Ran respectable enough on the off last out but (I have a) strong hunch he would have won if it was fast so I am hoping for a fast track BB day. I feel he is a strong contender and should be running well late when others are packing it in.” I do think the distance is going to remain within his wheelhouse, as my experience has been that the nick is a good one for the sprinter-miler as they get older. A Classic horse? The jury’s still out, even with Unbridled as a DDS. The speed figure from the End Of The Line is more likely to be slightly inflated by the conditions, yet I think this horse has the potential to pull a surprise and figure in the money here. He’ll be making a run from the rear of the field, but he’ll need something to chase, and if Joya’s the only one standing on the lead, that might not be enough to make as much of an impact as he’d want. It’s about class, and whether the End Of The Line or the Pea Patch provided him with enough classy foes to understand what racing against a whole slew of them is like in this spot.
Spirit Of Boom [Kingmambo-Pedro On Gas, by Dixieland Band, trained by kingmambo for PEDRO’S RACING EMPIRE]
Lots of Northern Dancer in the 5×5 pedigree, but none of it seems directly tied through the main lines. Between the sire and DDS, you’d think he’d be well-suited for the grass, but as of right now you’d be wrong. The nick is 4-for-7 in terms of turf success, with one horse (whose DDS was Sir Ivor) having made just one start in 2007 without trying the grass. With this pedigree, the turf might be worth taking a few longer looks at down the road, at distances greater than five-eighths of a mile. The dam only tried the grass once, but was a much better filly on the dirt, and this by far is the most successful foal to date. This colt has never been worse than second on the grass, and his connections are making that oft-imitated training maneuver of stretching to two turns off of five sprints. The pedigree is erring on the side of getting the mile, and why not? Both sire and dam-sire were good at getting their foals to stretch out. Greg seems intrigued: “Another sprinter that tries two turns against the best in the Sim. He’s just as fast as Charlie in the Box; Only difference is the turf debut that was flat and a little bit of bad luck that the 90 and 93 figs in his last two were only good enough for second. His last race he was beaten a half by Joya (one of the favorites here) by only a half and was well clear of the third place runner. He’s another that if he continues to improve and can get a 8.5f, there’s no reason he couldn’t win. But you’re always taking that chance on an unproven sprinter. However, he was only a half off of Joya, so he could be right there again.” The colt is fast, and seems to have put it together very quickly after an OK March turf debut. Where we differ I think is in current abilities to get the distance. He’s got some tactical speed which could be used to shake up Joya on the front end if enough pressure is supplied. He can also come from off the pace, and it’s tricky to try and guess form over a distance of ground for the first time. Where I think he might fall a little flat is that he tried seven furlongs once, in the Hoserhead Juvenile in July, and he had the lead in the stretch before giving way to Stevie IIII late. Turning back to six and a half-furlongs, he was second again, but moved the needle up three points for a career-best speed figure of 93. The horse that beat him that day, in the Upper New York Special? Joya. He was only beat a half-length, but sat off of Joya’s flank for the last half-mile and just couldn’t seal the deal. He’s been off since then, so he’s certainly the freshest horse here, which is both good and bad news. It’s good, because he’s fresh, and we assume he has filled out and sharpened up for this stretch-out. However, only he and Charlie In The Box have not prepped for this by stretching out to a route; the only two horses who have used this angle successfully in this race were Curling last year, and Dyna Form in the first BB Juvenile 12 years ago. If the pedigree says so, it’s fine—we’re talking about Curlin and Dynaformer, respectively, in previous years and both were strong commodities when routing on the track and as sires. Kingmambo, though…we’ll see. Anyway, there’s good tactical abilities with this one, and he’s been facing some heavy hitters all year, so he’s battle-ready. I wish I felt better about him having a race under the belt at the distance, or about having a race in the fall campaign thus far, but well-rested as he is, I suspect his next start might be something to behold, wherever, and on whatever surface, his connections might see fit to try.
Charlie In The Box [Zensational-Royal Kitty, by A.P. Indy, trained by picaso]
“No child wants to play with a Charlie In The Box!” Well, maybe his trainer is an overgrown, sympathetic kid at heart. This barn is new, but it’s hit the ground running, going 6-for-24 to start its career. Whichever veteran it belongs to, if applicable, seems to have gotten off to a whizbang start, and the key is in the first-crop sire hooking up with a mare who also has hit the ground running. This colt is a half to Muninn, who has won six of his first fourteen races and earned over $157,000 lifetime while specializing in longer routes. His sire was one of the best sprinters on the West Coast a year ago, which feels these years like being the best speedskater in all of Guatemala. He was a fast one, and a multiple graded winner, though it’s arguable just how good that division was overall on the West Coast. I’m pretty impressed by the “unbeaten in four starts” angle, and it seems as if Greg concurs, if just to a point: “Four for four sprinting including two graded wins, he’s been a clear winner each start. Back to back 90 figs would have to be improved upon to win this, but there’s nothing that’s saying he can’t. Unfortunately, there’s nothing that says he’s going to either. Obviously a contender that will get some action, but at this point – it’s still a guess. My guess is that he’s going to run a 90 and be disappointed in fifth, but if he runs them all down and is undefeated as a 2yo – well, I won’t be too shocked by that, either.” Unbeaten is still unbeaten, though, and it’s been known to happen; both Cader Ydris and Dyna Form went unbeaten through their Breeders Bowl Juvenile wins, though Cader Ydris did it in four starts and Dyna Form took six races to get the prize (and remained unbeaten for one more race before the streak was snapped). A deep closer in each of four starts, he’s chased the pace and closed well late, winning with authority while extending himself through seven furlongs. This is his first route race, though, and while he possesses some strong closing speed, and has the dam on his side for getting the distance, the sire’s pedigree is largely built for sprinting. The off-the-pace style is exciting going shorter, but there’s a worry when facing a horse with controlling speed, insomuch that no matter what kind of rally he unleashes, it might not make a lot of impact. He’s been training up to this since early September, after he won the Dell Computer Futurity, so he’s in the same boat as Spirit Of Boom: fresh, he is, but he’s without a fall prep for his first two-turn race. What also gives me pause is who he beat in the Dell Computer, which is to say…not a whole lot of quality there. Aside from a pair of good, developing talent that finished second and third behind him, there’s no one that has made an impact this fall finishing behind him. In fact, the only horse in this field he has faced was Me Gusta, in the Manor Of Bashford. The speed figures while sprinting are excellent, and all of this isn’t to say he might not turn out to be a quality miler later on, it’s just some strong cautionary notes against expecting him to move forward chasing the lone speed off a two-month break. I’m inclined to watch him back from this effort, as his follow-up start might be curiously strong; I’m just having a hard time feelin’ him in this slot off a long rest before a big race right now.
Secret Elixir [Bertrando-Secret Prospector, by Secreto, trained by slim for Tees Stables]
For those folks who suggest that only top-class blueblooded types can ever hit championship-level racing, take a good look at this California-bred. This is a full brother to two stakes winners, including Our Little Secret, who has excelled on the grass and won a Grade II doing so in March of last year, at age 7. This should bode well down the line in other arenas for this colt. His trainer “tees” off on the future and the present: “He was one of my early breedings and one of the cheapest of the year at around 220 credits. To be honest, I’m a little surprised he has managed to do so well this season. His win in the Cryogenics last time out was a real shock, it catapulted him up to 4th in the rankings and it was all systems go for the BB since then. His pedigree is not very fashionable and it looked like a weak field he beat in the Cryogenics, so I think he’ll be quite big odds, 20/1 possibly?” (Well, 15-1.) “On the plus side; he’ll be coming off a real nice 8 week break and also, there are quite a lot of strong closers in this field and this might just favour a couple of aggressive frontstylers. Not sure where he’ll be ‘fitting into the picture at 3’. I don’t think he’ll stay (a classic distance), so I’m not thinking Bluegrass…yet. I think that’s about it. As you can probably tell, I’m not too confident.” Our tees doesn’t need to be confident, because Greg’s got a little more for them both: “Another that’s undefeated around two turns including a graded win. He was all out to win with a fig of a 90. He’s had an uncomfortable 8 weeks off since then, which would be about the last amount of time off I’d want prepping for a big race. His fig looks pretty legit (others have come back to run similar figs to what they earned), but he’ll have to improve and we may have seen what he’s capable of.” He’s 4-for-6, and has shown noticeable improvement stretching out to the mile, with his speed figures getting better with that last run in the Cryogenic. Again, the Cryogenic run has the same problem as a couple of others in here, in that the field contained a few fair horses, but no buzzsaws to judge for quality. Furthermore, it was his stakes debut, which does make the win impressive, but if the field might not have been much better than a listed, how good is he really? Bertrando had tons of natural speed on the track, and won out to a mile and a quarter, so I’m not inclined to suggest he can’t get a classic distance, because, after all, his brother managed to do that on the turf. Of course, his other full brother wound up to be a solid stakes-winning sprinter, so who’s to say? He’s shown early speed against small fields, and some good stalker speed versus bigger fields, which makes him a prime candidate to add some pressure to Joya on the lead, and that’s a tactic that might help the closers in here chase something down late. He’ll need to improve the speed figures here, because that 90 is good for these, but not great, especially with an eight-week break coming into this. I’m no expert, but my personal philosophy is to not let them rest for too long between important races if they have a semblance of quality; I think you want them primed and ready to go without needing the race you’re pointing towards going forward. So, third horse in a row: fresh, but fitness might be a question mark, although it has to be said at least this one got a mile race in, and made it count—if he’s sharp, and willing to rate just enough speed to stay out of Joya’s hair without getting sucked into a front-end duel and leaving enough in the tank, this horse might be more ready than his trainer thinks he is. That Cryogenic field, however, might have missed something that could be key to whether or not he’ll fit at this level at 3.
Night Of Terror [Candy Ride x Mr. Prospector. trained by fastvett1 for Qwikvett Stables]
Recently, Candy Ride was given a boost in the sire ratings by Mike, which allowed more sons of this sire to become top-class colts. Where once upon a time you could still find him on a Saturday evening in the low-100s or even lower, now he’s gone quickly, and stays above 200 credits. The reclamation of this veteran to the ranks of the first-class sires has born fruit quickly with this horse, and within a week, he’ll have three times as many foals in this crop as he wound up with in all of 2008. They’re mostly sprinter-miler types at this juncture, but coming from the Mr. Prospector line has he does, a grandson of Cryptoclearance who himself is a grandson of Mr. Prospector, it’s not surprising that they tend to like shorter distances a little more than routes. What is surprising is that they used Mr. P proper as the dam-sire, and achieved such success with him; conventional wisdom would have suggested another Mr. P-line sire other than Fappiano, but if it bears fruit, why quibble? The unique breeding choices have led to a colt who showed some strong early baby-race form; as Greg points out, “After a fantastic run going 7f the first weekend in April (a 76 fig going that long that early is huge and the 3rd place horse in that race hasn’t lost since then, peeling off four wins in a row), he’s surprisingly avoided longer races for almost five months. He also avoided wins and was still a maiden. Finally stretched out to 7.5f at the end of August, challenged stakes company while winless, and drew away with ease running a lifetime best. Aggressively placed next out trying 2 turns for the first time vs. Graded company… and won again running a lifetime best of 96. Likes two turns, can win at the graded level, what’s not to like? Unfortunately, after my short love affair with this horse, I looked at the competition last out. The Winner (Terror) improved by 13 points. The place improved by 11 points and the show horse by 18. Fourth by 11, fifth by 15, and sixth by 15. Sure, graded 2yo are expected to improve, but every horse in the field by almost 15 points? I’m not completely buying it. His 96 is pretty close to the best last race fig in the field and he’s 11-1, but when you can get 10-1 on the undefeated Charlie in the Box and 10-1 on Confidently Wrong, I think the longshot value might be more valuable elsewhere.” A 96 last-out figure is very good this time of year. Chamberlain earned a figure of 96 in his last race before the Juvenile; Cader Ydris picked up a 102 before his; and that doesn’t even account for Dyna Form’s 109 before his win, which I tossed because it came in the opening weeks of the Sim. Odds are good it might take triple digits to win this race; Fleet Daisy’s 93 three years ago was the lowest figure to be awarded to a winner of this event, so we know it requires most everyone to raise their game in order to be considered a threat. The Bluegrass Juvenile likely may have been a fluky run, if by nature of the opposition not exactly measuring up to par; Greg points out most of the field increased their personal bests considerably, and I would add only that just two horses were stakes winners in that Grade III to begin with. Those numbers will come home to roost in their subsequent starts shortly, since no one has run back to prove or disprove the notion about inflated figures. As for the horse, he’s as much of a deep threat as this field gets, if the Bluegrass Juvenile is an indication of what he likes, and he should also prefer some kind of speed duel to chase. The last was a promising first try beyond a mile, and the speed figure is what it is, it’s not the best last-out number but it comes close. He’ll need a repeat of that against a field far better than any he’s faced before, and with him facing the other thirteen for the very first time, the prospects appear on paper to be rather dim; it’s make-or-break time for this colt.
Cowpers Tune [Not For Love-Debbie Dearest, by Seattle Slew, trained by theprofit5 for Coomer3 Stables]
With this sire, there’s limited directions to move, seeing how it’s literally Mr. Prospector out of a Northern Dancer mare. One needs to be rich or creative to figure out how to get the right dam-sire to work with the two main sire lines in all of racing. I guess when in doubt, look for the third popular line, Seattle Slew. The mare is a prolific one, producing seven foals, including three stakes-placed ones, all the while being stakes-placed herself. Each stakes-placed one came from the Mr. Prospector family on the sire side, which would fit here, but the trend is continuing in terms of achievement, as this colt has only managed a second in the North Fork last out. The 94 was a solid number for the race, but when challenged by Fashion Pole, he offered no resistance in being beaten three-quarters of a length. Greg picked up on this: “Maryland bred was somehow 8-1 in the North Fork and somehow ran second and I somehow don’t really believe any of it. Still eligible for N2L. Hey, he missed by 3/4 of a length in one of the major G1 preps for this. Based on that he belongs. Somehow. I just don’t really believe in him.” I can’t say I disagree; though the distance of ground is still likely to appeal to him, his credentials don’t measure up with just a maiden win and a second in a Grade I to his credit. He’s likely to get the seasoning he needs as he matures, but it’s very unclear if this race will provide him with enough of a kick to contend. Tactically he’ll come from off the pace, sitting mid-pack until late, but with two seconds at stakes level and a no-factor sixth in the Hoserhead Juvenile this summer, it’s really uncertain whether he has the proper gravitas to play a role at this level right now. He’ll need to show the 94 wasn’t just an inflated speed figure, and he’ll simply have to close the deal a lot better than he had tried in the North Fork.
Adjust The Fun [Distorted Humor-Fumetsu, by Storm Cat, trained by topicount2 for Bush League Stables :)]
This nick has power. In fact, of the sire’s last two crops, six of the top 15 money earners each year had this specific nick. It’s like a neon sign saying “Success! This way!”. It’s produced eight graded winners in just the last five years, and seems to be exceptionally popular among those willing to shell out a fortune for it. The dam, Fumetsu, is a he-mare who won a stakes race at 3 on the turf going long, and the trainer is a picture perfect representation of Malibu Barbie, according to Dr. Dipper Lip. Seriously, as one third of the super grouping, she knows success at the highest level of the Sim. Between the nick and the connections, pencil in a win…right? Hold on, there, pardner, Greg dissents thusly: “Horses like this are why I hate handicapping 2yo races. He’s done nothing wrong, he’s improving every race, he’s a graded winner around two turns, yet it’s so hard to bet with any confidence at all. The LA Juvenile was a decent key race: The second, third and fifth place finishers all came back to win graded races (Fun here was second). His comeback win was beating almost nothing in the mile G3 Trixy Delight’s in Argentina. He improved on that run by running a good third in the sloppy End of the Line. He’s a graded winner around two turns, has a key race in his background, is well bred and has to be considered a serious contender. Something smells fishy, but that might just be me after looking at too many 2yo.” Greg’s man-scent aside, he does have a point. He’s been improving and rounding into form with each start, moving his speed figures up the ladder in five races from 78 in March to 90 last month, and does have that graded win in Argentina. Yet, you would think that after debuting with a strong speed figure in that early maiden win, that the sky would be the limit. But his graded near-miss in June in the Los Angeles Futurity was a narrow photo lost to Navajo Humor, who may has failed to back up those credentials since then. The only horse he beat in the Trixy’s Delight down Argentine way was Pioneer Park, who is now making his bones on the turf with a recent Grade I win. And the End Of The Line last out, in the slop, as was mentioned earlier, has sent everyone’s form scattered every which way because of the track conditions. He’s getting the class test in the fall that he didn’t get earlier on, which should be of more help going forward; his best speed figure is respectable and competitive, if only just so; and the distance has proved to be in his wheelhouse. As for his running style, he likes to come from well out of it, which should keep him competitive late. It’s that he got his biggest speed figure boost between starts while running over this track in the mud that is more concerning than much anything else about him. Everyone seemed to enjoy something of a boon, and as Greg has pointed out, that’s not uncommon, but it makes things unpredictable, especially when everyone on paper in the postmortem of a race seems to have experienced similar boons—was it the mud or a form growth spurt that got him there, and which shows up this weekend? He can get the distance, the nick is gold, his running style is most likely to keep him in the mix in terms of the purse at the least, and he’s got class in bloodlines and connections, yet not unlike Greg I find it difficult making a case for this nice colt to become something much more adventurous than nice in this spot.
Joya [Redoute’s Choice-Freelance, by Giant’s Causeway, trained by kido for The Diver Stables]
Oh boya. You would have thought that a sire who is one of Australia’s finest, and a stakes-placed mare bred top and bottom for the grass, would be gold on green. And yet, that’s not the case here. In fact, the dam was stakes-placed on dirt and showed an affinity for the mile or thereabouts. This colt hasn’t yet tried the turf, but judging by his experiences thus far, it’s quite possible he won’t need to. Joya has been on fire this year, and has gate as well as tactical speed to burn in his past performances. It didn’t start out that way, though: he was second in his wet-track debut, got a wire job next out with a high quality speed figure for June, and then burnt himself out in a speed duel in a Vermont stakes to lose a photo to Tapitstry. But when the action switched to Upper New York, he discovered how to hang out close to a pace without getting burned up, and he won the Upper New York Special with enough left to hold off Spirit Of Boom. That set him up from there, as Greg points out. “G2 win at 6.5f, G1 win at 8f. Decent tactical speed – can win wire to wire but won’t auto-quit if doesn’t get the lead. Picking him certainly seems reasonable. Win in the Sparkling Win is slightly confusing as all of the other Graded Winners kinda crapped the bed and were also-rans, the other cashers all improved by about 10 points. However, the also-rans ran to their figs: This isn’t unusual in 2yo races where the good sprinters figs flatten out in their tries around two turns and some surprises pop up from what looked like marginal contenders as they find their more correct distances.” That Sparkling Wine race, he just about had the lead from the start, though it was more by default when Indy Appeal got worn down after a half. The graded runners really didn’t seem to do much running, as Greg said, but then, no one was coming to Joya late. Not Me Gusta, who got as close as a length and a half but wasn’t really closing hard, not Open Pit Ted, who ran evenly but wasn’t moving up from third, nobody. There’s no Indy Appeal here, and in fact, there’s enough pressure to make things interesting, maybe, but there’s no one who would want the lead, judging by past performances alone. Joya has the option if he wants it, and if the pressure doesn’t materialize in massive doses, it’s possible he’ll try to go wire to wire. The difference between this and the Sparkling Wine is that he had someone to play with, let do the heavy lifting, and then he took over and was never really headed. Add another sixteenth, and would it make much of a difference? Me Gusta may have caught a little more of a tiring Joya, but the margin of victory for Joya likely would have been just a smidge less. The speed figure is the best last-out one here, a 97, and it seems possible that with his pedigree, the extra sixteenth might send the speed figure towards triple-digits. Without much in the way of truly speedy stalking horses or really fit closers trying to chase a strong pace, he’s earned his favoritism honestly.
Cader Ydris, Half A World Away and Curling last year all won gate to wire on the front end, in times ranging from 1:42 3/5 to 1:43 2/5. Joya won his Sparkling Wine at a mile in 1:35 2/5. The fractions might have to be a little more reasonable to sustain against a more talented field, but if he’s on the lead and letting some pressure come to him, if there’s a reserve left, those times seem reasonable to beat. What might beat him is only having faced three of the members of this field. The races he’s run in have been worthy of their respective graded statuses, but they haven’t attracted a steady and comparable field to a couple of others here. As sparkling as that Sparkling Wine was, he might have needed to dazzle against a tougher crowd, much like this field. But he’s shown he is capable of turning it on, and the script for this certainly shapes up that way. Unless someone ad-libs it in the lane, he’s going to be a tough out.
Open Pit Ted [Tapit-Tarnished Medal, by Medaglia D’Oro, trained by refinement]
This is the second Tapit in the field, and we’ve established that Tapit has been pulling out all the stops this year. The dam was a multiple winner at 2, specializing in the middle distances on the grass, and Medaglia D’Oro, a relative newcomer to being a dam-sire, has already been the dam-sire of a Grade I winner this year, Silver Stealth. He swings both ways between turf and dirt, but certainly adds staying power to a pedigree. Whether he can add enough to get an extra sixteenth isn’t up for debate, but Greg’s opinion of whether it adds to his class among these is: “Beaten by 2 by Joya running third in the Sparkling Wine got him his points to get here. I think he’s slower than the best horses here, but good enough to maybe catch a piece in fifth. I don’t think he’ll get badly outrun, but I don’t think he’s going to pop that big fig needed to be a contender. The one interesting thing about this horse is actually his running styles (I’m not looking at start speeds). He’s switched freely from being a front runner to being a closer in various starts, but two of his best starts have been while settling and rallying, and if you told me he was going to be 9th down the backstretch, I’d like his chances of cashing a lot more than if you told me he was third.” He’s certainly versatile enough to choose a way of running and sticking to it, and if need be he might be an intriguing candidate to run with Joya early on. But since more recently he’s been rating and holding off the pace for a nice closing rally, there’s no reason to expect he’d switch gears here. Thing is, though he ran third and picked up that 94 speed figure in the Sparkling Wine, he wasn’t exactly gaining on the winner. It was a nice leap forward for him, but settling and rallying seems to work if you can close the gap considerably on a runaway leader in the case of the Sparkling Wine; if he could run back to the effort in the Vermont BB Juvenile, where he rallied furiously for second and was coming on at the end, it might make more of an impact. That race had runaway speed early on, and he made strong inroads at the finish, but this is a large step up from that field, with no one from there in here. There’s no logical reason with this pedigree why he can’t step up and extend himself a sixteenth, or even a few sixteenths, and I think his 94 was legitimate, but I just don’t think he’s quite there yet, either. A minor share sounds about right, maybe more if he can match the tactics to the class level, with hopefully no repeat of his Buckeye Juvenile experience, where he stayed too close to a solid pace and got burned for it.
Fashion Pole [Old Fashioned-Crassly A La Jess, by Polish Numbers, trained by pirates for Lsumark Stables]
Old Fashioned is a freshman sire with his first big runner, and he should theoretically give this one the mile and a sixteenth he’ll require, considering he excelled taking the Arkansas route to the Kentucky Derby before fracturing a knee when second in the Arkansas Derby. Perhaps that’s a sign in itself that there may be distance limitations that need to be accounted for in future crops. The dam has turned out six winners from seven runners, and specialized in sprints, and was sired by a horse who could be a versatile sire in the Sim, turning out sprinter-milers on both surfaces, and it never hurt that the dam-sire was a half to Private Account. Greg points out that he managed to go from sprints to a route with no issue regarding form—but there’s a catch here, too: “I normally love this pattern – reasonable form, tries two turns and BAM, good race. Makes complete sense to back again in his next start at this level. My concern is that his breakout race, the G1 North Fork, came up pretty darned weak. Only two dirt graded placed horses at all in that field going into the race (maybe 3, I kinda dozed off in the mediocrity of the field while looking it over and may have lost count). However, he has proven that he can win a G1 at 8.5f and that means a heck of a lot, so he’s a contender, but I like Joya more.” I’m not certain that winning a Grade I automatically turns a two-year-old from a jack to a king, but his trainer likes Fashion Pole, especially considering the family he comes from: “I wanted to give him a couple of sprints, and knew he wasn’t ready for those two races and really thought two turns would be his game. He has been razor sharp two of the last three weeks. So, I am looking for a good race. I am hoping to get a good pace up front to set up his late run. As to the breeding, his damn dropped a Grade III winner for me with her first foal (Ma’Adim Vallis). I have bred mainly grass sires to her, but they all seemed to run better on dirt. None had the success as her first foal. So, this year I decided to go with a young dirt sire. He has the breeding to like the classic distances, so we will hit the trail next year and see what happens. I have been around for a long time, but this is only my second BB entry. My first was in the Filly & Mare Turf (Norse Princess). She had several grade I wins that year, but didn’t fire at all that day. I have done much better with older horses than younger ones, and this is my first 2yo graded winner that I can recall.” It’s always exciting when you get a juvenile that seems like a flash—for me, Jesus Walks went from pretty good to awesome Grade I winner and Eclipse finalist three years ago in a blink of a fall, and it was incredibly satisfying to hit a home run with him at 2. I’m less than convinced, however, of the routing prospects he has down the line; still, this distance should be properly suited to him. Where the problem comes is that North Fork: it wasn’t the weakest graded race for two-year-olds this year, but it wasn’t the pillar of strength I think many were hoping for. He’s certainly got closing speed, and should be running late, but he’s got the same problem others have, I think: Joya being more or less the only confirmed speed source likely to take matters in hand to some extent. Closers need something to close on, and any horse getting loose on the lead under moderate to challenging fractions isn’t guaranteed to fold like a tent later on. Make no mistake, his three-quarter length win earned him a 95, respect from the oddsmakers, and was still a solid performance, but what he closed on a month ago didn’t include any other graded stakes winners, and only one other listed winner. The good-performance-over-a-bad-field angle isn’t helpful, but there were signs of legitimacy in that race, considering it was his first route and he woke up singing; compare that to his other graded tries when sprinting, in the Closest Friend (seventh) and the Midsoil in Spain (fourth, closing late in the mud), and those fields weren’t horrible, but he couldn’t get the job done in them anyway. So, two turns should continue to appeal, to an extent. Can he parlay that North Fork into a win? It’s possible, but I’m suspecting without a contested pace, his late kick might suffer for it.
So, we’ve reached the end of an intriguing, puzzling race preview. What says Greg? His pick seemed short and sweet: “If I had to bet, I’d bet on Confidently Wrong at a price. Three wins going two turns and the only horse that has the luxury of an easy prep last out.” We’ll hold him to that. For me, though, I have to say I’m pretty impressed with how Joya‘s been running. I don’t really see anyone here trying to outrun him early on unless I’ve missed my guess, the pressure will exist but not full-throated, and I think the closers may be at a disadvantage here if Joya gets loose. Second money I think might be headed to Spirit Of Boom, who I think is the one most likely to be ready for his first two-turn mile, as his pedigree hints at on paper, and his break might have done him the most good, or at least the least harm. I like Confidently Wrong for third money, as he should be ready to roll, though I differ with Greg in that the final prep might have been too light in preparing for this Grade I race. If you’re looking for longshots, Me Gusta and Fashion Pole have risks, but potential rewards. Me Gusta’s time might be drawing near to break through with a big win, and has been consistent enough to warrant a look, and Fashion Pole should like the mile and a sixteenth again, and has a late run that could morph into something interesting to watch if the race unfolds differently than I’ve been assuming.
That’s it from here. Thanks very much to Greg for his insights, which were welcomed and valued by me in this attempt to do something a little different. Thanks to the trainers who sent comments, and who have bred such solid racehorses for this big day in Sim racing. Good luck to all, and remember…it gets better.