Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to deliver world peace

E5, Duetoburst Stakes-G1, 2yo M 7F Turf
race 4477.4909

We are a the headquarters of horseracing this week for the Dewhurst Stakes. This is not only the best 2yo race in the world but in fact the second best race in the world. This is based on the rating of the top four finishers over a ten year period when compared to international ratings. In other words this race in real terms is the second hardest to win in the world.

If we look at the list of winners since 1970 that is no surprise apart from many being outstanding racehorses they are many of the most important stallions in the world.

Nijinsky the last triple crown winner in England. He was the horse that put his sire on the map. He himself then became an outstanding sire and broodmare sire though it is fair to say due to time he is no really only a n influence as a dam dam sire in real life.

Mill Reef in fact an even better racehorse than Nijinsky and himself an outstanding sire and dam sire as well. He also is now really only a influence as a dam dam sire in real life.

Grundy was another top class racehorse only slightly inferior to Nijinsky. He was not a great success at stud though. He was soon exported to Japan you do see his name in pedigrees way back of some really well bred horses.

The Minstrel another very good racehorse and was closely related to Nijinsky. He was a success at stud but not nearly as good as his close sibling. He again is now more of an influence as a dam dam sire. Many of his offspring have temperament issues.

Storm Bird was an outstanding 2yo but never trained on at three. He went to stud where he did well as both a sire and dam sire. His male line relies on one horse Strom Cat who has been the most commercial successful of the last 20 years though his runners on the track do not reflect this.

Diesis was another really good 2yo how did not train on. He was not as good a racehorse as his full brother Kris or sire and dam sire for that matter. He is still very good as both a dam sire and dam dam sire. he works really well with Danzig line horses which is a massive benefit for real life racing though that line is massively undervalued in the sim.

El Gran Senor was an outstanding 2yo and classic winning 3yo from an outstanding crop of horses. He went to stud and had fertility problems. This of course affected the quality of mares he covered. His results though in percentage terms are good and he is a good dam sire. His stud carrier was a matter of what if…

Scenic has been a very good sire in Australia and is starting to do well as a dam sire as well. He is a son of the outstanding sire yet underrated in the game Sadler’s Wells and offers something different down under. He should be more than capable as a dam sire of throwing a few graded winners per crop.

Generous was a really good racehorse in fact in terms of merit better than Nijinsky. His stud carrier was not a great success to be honest and he now stands as a jump sire. It is fair to say though the mares from his early years a t stud have done well as broodmare sires.

Zafonic was a brilliant 2yo who won a classic at three. He went to stud and did well as a stallion. He is now a decent broodmare sire and would have to be rated above Scenic. He should be capable from a full crop of getting around 4 graded winners. He is helped by many of his mares being in the Juddmonte broodmare band.

Grand Lodge was a decent sire and is doing well as a dam sire, better than many people would think. In 2010 he has 8 graded stakes winners as a dam sire including a grade 1 winner this last weekend. He is doing really well in this area and need a considerable upgrade in the sim to reflect his ability. He has as much ability as Zafonic and should produce similar results.

Tobougg has done better at stud than most people think. He is not a superstar but given a full crop should be able to sire at least one graded winner per full crop. In real terms a sire like Awesome Again should be on that level given his results over the last 3 or 4 seasons.

Rock Of Gibraltar was a very good racehorse. He has done well at stud and is just below that top level of stallions. He has 4 graded winners in 2010 down as he stood a year in Japan (never a good move for a sire). He is one of the better sires in the world but no superstar.

Shamardal is a superstar already. His dam is also a sister to the leading US sire Street Cry which is where much of his ability comes from. His record this year for a second crop sire is top class he has 11 graded winners worldwide this year at present only 10 sires have got into double figures. He will require a massive boost in the sim next year. He is already one of the world’s leading sires.

Sir Percy won this and was a classic winner at three. His star was not bright when he started out at stud though. It is early days now but his sales results have been encouraging so far. It would be no surprise to see him get a better book of mares next year. His offspring will be worth following on the track.

Teofilo was a brilliant 2yo problem is he never made the racecourse at three. His first yearlings sold this year and they sold very well indeed. If we base results on probability Sir Percy is likely to do better as a sire as he won a grade 1 in two seasons. Time will tell how things pan out.

New Approach I have written about him in the past. I still believe based on race records and the profiles of other top sires he should be a t present rated above Sea The Stars.

Frankel well it will be interesting to see what happens with him. If he develops as expected he will be the top rated sire in the sim for 2012. The other Juddmonte 2yo to me looks like having more potential as he settles. That does not mean he has as much raw ability.

As for the pedigrees of the runners this year they are as follows:-

Galileo-Danehill-Rainbow Quest
Galileo-Danehill-Kris
Leroidesanimaux –Saint Ballado-Capote
Oasis Dream-Persian Bold-Northfields
Diktat-Cadeaux Genereux-Green Desert
Street Cry-Galileo-Rainbow Quest

It is fair to say the uplift in Galileo’s ratings does not seem to have worked in the sim so far. He still appears underrated considering he is the best sire in the world right now. The other factors worth noting are how Danehill seems to be badly rated in the sim given how strong he is in real life. It is silly that in turf races that I cover A P Indy turns up more than Danehill.

The other note to make is four of the six runners were by sires in the top 10 stallions in the world which is what you would expect from the world’s best 2yo race.

ROQUE HARD TEN (KY) ROCK HARD TEN x STORM CAT x BUCKPASSER

Rock Hard Ten arrives again in a turf race. Why I ask myself US dirt horses equal poor turf sires. His record at stud so far has been poor and a massive downgrade is required come next year. This and many horses in this race raise serious question over the rating systems applied to the sim. This horse has only won a maiden but is graded placed on the turf as well. The horse looks like a sprinter as well so the drop back in trip and back to turf should be of help here. The horse has place claims in this race.

DIGGSTOWN (AR) FAN THE FLAME x SEATTLE SLEW x MR. PROSPECTOR

I have to be careful what I say here. How does a sire 67th on the Arizona sires list produce 7% stakes winners. You have sires like Dalakhani with 1.5% who in real life has over 12% stakes winner to runners up to the end of 2009 including classic winners and breeders cup winners. This sort of thing does the game no favours. People who have bred to Dalakhani should get a refund for credits as compared to this sire he should be producing something like 80% stakes winners if this fellow can produce 7%. This horse should not be able to sire a winner of a $2k regional maiden claiming race. Well done to the owner for exploit this though. This horse bombed out on graded race debut and for common sense I hope the same happens again. If he reproduced his allowance form he could sneak a place.

BAD BLAKE(KY) KINGMAMBO x A.P. INDY x DANZIG

I have been looking into Kingmambo and in real life he appears to have sired less than 100 horses since 2005. This marks a big difference to the sim. It does raise questions and there are several sires like him including another in this race Green Desert who have limited usage in real life. Maybe these kind of sires should only be of use for 10,000 credits or bps to reflect their nature. This horse ran a monster speed figure on an off track last time. That is hard to believe for a 2yo on an off turf track, I could understand on dirt as that plays different. If he does not have an adverse effect to that outstanding run he has to be a major player in this race as he likes the trip and can handle the class. If he runs like that again he wins easy (maybe a sim Frankel).

PROMOTE (IRE) RAVEN’S PASS x ALDEBARAN x STORM CAT

What a farce Raven’s Pass has 1.6% stakes winners. He was a grade 1 winning 2yo multiple grade 1 winning 3yo including in open company the most important factor is successful stallions and retired to stud with excellent broodmare support and a very fashionable sire line to boot. yet fan The Flame has better statistics this is just such a joke it makes Tsunami running hopeless horse in grade races as a non issue. An error of this proportion is just not really acceptable. There is more chance of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad winning the noble peace prize for the next 75 years in a row than this happening. This horse ran well and won nicely on debut. My personal view and if you look at players who are far superior to myself then tend to run in an allowance race second start and build up to graded company over a few races if they pass the ability jump test. It is hard to make out a case for this horse here with so many x factors but hopefully he will do well in the future for connections.

DEMON’S EYE (GB) GREEN DESERT x A.P. INDY x SADLER’S WELLS

As with Kingmambo I believe Green Desert should have restricted sim use as he does in real life. As long as this is consistent then I do not see it as an issue. In real life we could not get him to cover our mare so why should he be able to in the sim. A P Indy has only sired 2 graded stakes winners outside of the USA (only grade 3 winners) on turf in fact 7 overall over the last 7 years and obviously needs a substantial down grade of around 80% as a turf dam sire come the next upgrade. This horse again jumps from maiden company up to graded class. Some horses do make the jump seamlessly but as with real life many struggle. As a selection for this race he is passed over in this filed. That is not to say he is not capable.

OBEY (AUS) COMMANDS (AUS) x RED RANSOM x SIR TRISTRAM (IRE)

I like the name of this horse. Commands has had 3 graded winners this year which is not bad going and 17 in the last 7 years. He is a far better sire than Fan The Flame but has a lower percentage of stakes winners. In real terms he has around 95% more ability than that sire. This horse is a true Australian horse in terms of pedigree and should therefore be better at sprints. The cut back to 7f today should help. He was stakes placed last time. He has to improve for the step up in class as well and you would expect there are a couple in this field that will beat him.

INCANDENZA (NY) COSMONAUT x NIGHT SHIFT x TIZNOW

Here we go again another Muppet horse in this race. This is the second time in three weeks a NY bred horse has popped up in a race I have covered last one was an impressive winner! Number of NY bred horse to reach the international rankings on turf over the last 10 years nil. Therefore how wrong I come across two in three weeks. Obviously NY stallions need a massive downgrade on turf. If regional racing is to work sires form regions states have to be graded reasonably against their real worth at present this is not happening and the level of errors are massive as we have two horses that could not win a race in Britain in this grade 1. The sire offers nothing wit a few grade 3 wins and those were at 4 or above how does he have a better percentage of stakes winners than Raven’s Pass and Dalakhani. He should not be even able to sire a stakes winner on turf. This is a very good horse that can handle the class as well being a graded winner already. The one negative is he was unplaced over 7f before but has to be considered to reach the frame at least here.

GHOSTLY TALE (IRE) INVINCIBLE SPIRIT (IRE) x TALE OF THE CAT x RED RANSOM

This horse’s sire is by far the best turf sire in the race on current form and will be going forward as well. He has 7 graded winners in 2010 which easily put him in the top 20 in the world. He has just had a very large fee increase for 2011 in his stud fee. He should be within the top 20 turf sires in the game and top 25 sires all told in the game. He needs a massive sim upgrade come 2011. This horse has done well and has been graded placed but ran poorly last time out. If it was me I would have given the horse a soft win boost for this start but we all play the game differently. If he can bounce back to his best he can run into a place in this race.

GITANILLO (JPN) ALKAASED x VINDICATION x GREEN DESERT

Alkaased did not really reach his peek till the age of five. He won a couple of graded races at this age. He also suffered a lot of injuries. As I said many times this sort of sire tends to do poorly at stud and I see no reason why this horse should be any different than the others. It is not a surprise he could not find a place at stud in Europe. It is amazing his record is better than Ravens Pass given the statistical evidence on how racehorse performs as sires. As a group sires in Japan are massively over rated and need downgrading by at least 25% except in about two cases (Sunday Silence and Tony Bin). With the evidence at hand this horse has done very well and has been well managed by connections so far.
His last run was below par but that may have been the trip and can be forgiven. On all other form he has the class to be on anyone’s shortlist in this race as a selection.

PIONEER PARK (KY) STREET CRY (IRE) x DANZIG x STORM CAT

Street Cry is the best young sire in the USA and by a long way he is in the top 10 in the world easily. As mentioned before many of his European runners get the Timeform squiggle (un genuine) and do not stay very well. Anyone how saw the real Dewhurst Stakes this year would see why. His runner very talented horse lost it in the head and would not settle and beat himself by half way. If that horse is to reach its potential it will have to sprint as the fast even pace gets rid of these issues. That is why the sire does so much better in the USA as races are run at a more even pace or at least run faster at the start of the race. This horse improved for a switch to turf and on his dirt form seems better at less than a mile. A reproduction of his last piece of form would give him a decent shout here.

LASERBLAZE (KY) GHOSTZAPPER x CERTAIN STORM x ELUSIVE QUALITY

I have spoken on this horse many times before at the Keeneland sales only 8 of his 56 horse’s offered sold for 6 figures this is dire for a stallion that stood for six figures when those foals were conceived. He looks likely to struggle to keep his stud fee as high as 2010 next year and drop to $10k seems realistic. He has to be due another massive downgrade in the sim for 2011 given he has sired only one graded winner so far. If you look at his AI against mares AI with other sires the results are horrible. This fellow switched to turf after a maiden win on dirt and was unplaced in a graded race. He ran well though. It is hard to see him breaking the top three here and is well worth another try on the dirt.

PROTRACTOR (IRE) SEA THE STARS (IRE) x STORM CAT x ALYDAR

I have talked on Sea The Stars before just to say I think he may well be over rated as he did not win a grade 1 at two. A few sires have had better profiles than him over the last few years. Absolute racing ability does not always make a great stallion. This horse has had a lovely preparation for this race gently being increased in class and passing the tests easily. He worthy of a jump up in class and as long as the trip is not to sharp for him at this leave he would appear to have a very good chance of making the frame. He is worth keeping an eye out for the future. Well prepared horse and a credit to connections.

As for my selections:-

1 BAD BLAKE
2 PROTRACTOR
3 GITANILLO