Who is the next graded winner, in The Next Episode

After some crazy storms earlier this week the sun is back shining in New Jersey. Sixteen races have been carded, with the fourteenth being the feature race. The Next Episode G3. The Next Episode has been carded for three year olds and up going a mile and a sixteenth over a firm turf course. Only six have entered to vie for the $150,000 purse. All entrants however are four and five year olds, with one mare entered as well..

Drawing the rail is sandcastle’s D.C. Bluegrass, who comes into this race off a disappointing effort after winning seven in a row. D.C is a four year old son of Bluegrass Cat out of Nightector, who was by Nigh Shift. Nightector was a stakes placed runner in his day, and has produced a multiple listed stakes winner in D.C. Bluegrass. In seventeen starts DC has won eleven times, with three thirds, that’s only three times off the board. In his last effort he took a trip up to the Spa for the Bernie Baruch, starting eleventh and never changing order throughout the race, he lost by over twelve lengths, but still posted a 102, the race was won with a 116. Today he turns back in distance by a half a furlong, and takes a slight drop in class. D.C’s running style is from well off the pace, he’s usually last until they turn from home, and then shows he’s great turn of foot. At 3/1 I worry that there isn’t enough speed in this race for him to run at, a horse closer to the pace may be better suited today.

Naracing9’s Lucky’s Nigel returns to New Jersey quickly after a poor finishing just three weeks ago in the G3 Crimson Bank. Lucky’s Nigel is a four year old son of Pivotal out of and unraced Rainbow Quest mare. In thirty-two trips to the track, he’s found the winner’s circle thirteen times, finishing second seven times and third three times. Nigel is a multiple allowance winner, who seems to be allergic to stakes, finishing second and third only once. Lucky Nigel’s racing style is slightly varied, he can run from fairly far off the pace, or within a few lengths and finish well. At 7/2 I think his best bet today would be to be fairly close up on the pace since there won’t be much to run at. If he falters again today, I would take him to a listed stake or back to allowances where he has shown he loves to win.

Super9 sends out Soldier, which looks to be a rabbit for another horse in this field possibly. Soldier is a four year old son of Marcus Andronicus out of Miswaki’s Revenge, who was by Vindication. On the track Miswaki’s Revenge never won or placed in stakes, but had nine wins to his credit, but has produced a graded stakes placed stakes winner in Soldier. In twenty seven races he has won six times, placed twice and shown five times. As of late Soldier has been severely off form, with not seeing the winner’s circle since February of this year. He comes into this race off of a second place effort in a NW3Y allowance race in which he finished second. In his last win he managed to come from off the pace, but most of his efforts have him on the lead. At 6/1 he’s facing a bought of bad luck, but is the lone speed of the race, that is possible for him to stretch his speed out for this race and wire the field. However I am not convinced that he is not in here to be a rabbit for another horse in this race that needs a pace to run at.

Drawing the four hole is the lone mare of the field, Rena, who will be saddled by vertigo. Rena is a five year old mare by Red Ransom out of Red Bean Soup a daughter of Sadler’s Wells. Red Bean Soup on the track won just three times, never placing in a stake. Red Bean has three horses of racing age, with two to start, a four year old full brother to Rena has never started. Rena’s half sister has not faired well on the track, and has been eligible to be claimed in the past. Rena however is a graded winner, with nineteen starts, eight of them being wins, and three places and two shows. Today won’t be the first time that she’s tried run against the boys, she did that at three as well, and finished third that day. Rena won a G3 just three races back, but does come into the race off of a last place finish in a listed stake. Rena’s typical running style has her within a half a dozen lengths of the lead, however two years back she was winning on the lead, so maybe she’ll change up her racing tactics here today. At 4/1 running against the boys is no easy task, but this race doesn’t look to be too tough. If she does go for the lead it would change the way this race was won with just one other definite speed horse.

Topicount3 sends out Going West, another finisher in the Bernie Baruch last time out. Going West is a four year old son of Gone West, out of Cotton Sock who was by Unfuwain. Cotton Sock on the track won fourteen times, but was never in the money in a stake. His only progeny however is a graded winner. In twenty-none starts Going West has won six times, placed eight and shown four times. Going West comes into this race off of a poor effort in the Bernie Baruch where he just couldn’t hang with the super fast speed that was being set, dropping back in lengths at each and every call during the race. Today should pose to be an easier position, with just five other entrants in the race. Going West is usually just a few lengths off the pace, which should bode well for him today with only one real pacesetter to run at, all he has to do is close at the right time. At 7/2 my only concern is that the race may be too short for him. The pacesetter may need to run out of gas for Going West to make his move in time.

Finishing off the field is liam’s Dollis Hill. Dollis Hill is a five year old son of Afleet out of Red Duhlert, a daughter of Deputy Minister. On the track Red Duhlert was a spectacular race mare winning a grade one, placing in four others, with three grade two wins, and five additional placings. As a broodmare she’s produced seven horses of racing age, with six to win, one graded placed, one graded winner (Dollis Hill) and another who has won over one hundred thousand in his racing career. Dollis Hill is by far her best progeny to date. In thirty-five starts he has won and placed eight times, finishing third three additional times. He is a winner on both dirt and turf, with more wins and earnings on the dirt than the turf. His turf record is two wins, three places and a show in nine starts, which isn’t bad at all, but is about $300,000 less in earnings from his dirt starts. He also comes into this race off of a long win drought, not winning since December of last year, and that was an allowance race on the dirt. Dollis Hill has a varied running style he usually runs from slightly off the pace, but when there isn’t much pace in the race he has found himself on the lead before. I doubt he’ll be dueling with Soldier on the lead, so watch for him to be sitting in mid pack with two or three others by his side. At 3/1 if he can run like he did back in July during that listed stake where he barely lost by a quarter length he could be tough today.

That’s the field, short but sweet. Its very hard to tell who is going to win with half the field going through a win drought, but my favorites are D.C Bluegrass, Rena and Dollis Hill. Good luck to all may your horses run fast and return to their barns safely.