More Witch Handicap

The More Witch Handicap is making its second appearance in California this weekend.  Last year, Rattlin Rebel was the gate-to-wire winner in this event, scoring the victory with a speed of 110, which happens to be his career best and this race was his sole graded win.  Trainer Buckbean has opted to race Rattlin Rebel elsewhere this weekend, so the More Witch trophy is up for grabs in this 6 ½ furlong turf race open to all horses age 3 or older.  Competing in this field are:

1.  Sixer Storm  5-1

Sixer Storm has one graded race to date and he was mediocre in the race.  In the non-graded stake races, Sixer looks competitive with a record of 3-0-2 in six starts, all three wins coming on an off-track.  Despite winning on the wet surface, Sixer still puts up competitive speed numbers on the dry track.  He does ship from Spain to California for the race, a long haul, however, Sixer hasn’t shown much wear travel-wise.  Could be a surprise.

2.  Westside Star  6-1

Westside Star has tried two graded races thus far and hasn’t put in any stellar efforts in either race.  Discarding those races, he is competitive at lower levels, with a career turf record of 2-1-2 in six races.  In turf races, Westside shows no early speed, rather he seems to walk out of the starting gate.  But on the dirt, he will explode out of the gate….go figure!  I don’t think running in the rear of this field will prove to be wise.  His best chance, in my eyes, would be to run near the front.  Poor jockey assignment of K Murano who has 2 wins in 46 races this season doesn’t lend a lot of promise.

3.  Water Landing  9-2

This speed bullet hasn’t missed the board in 10 career starts, scoring a record of 6-3-1 in combined dirt & turf races.  He has won his last 4 starts, all on the turf.  His last two posted speeds of 112 in an allowance race (7f) and more recently a monstrous 116 at 7.5f in a non-graded race.  This is Water Landings first graded race and he has tons and tons of speed.  He could run away with this and never look back!

4.  Moon Cat   7-2

Moon Cat has quite a bit of experience in graded races with 11 starts and a record of  1-3-1.  Not counting his last race, his recent speeds have been between 104 and 110.  Moon Cat did race on this track late last year and finished a fair fifth in an unspectacular effort.  Hard to tell if he disliked the track, the jockey or just had a bad day.  Moon Cat does get top jockey F. Gossett (28% win) for this race and he could turn things around.  Horse is a threat if ready.

5.  Inshallah  8-1

Inshallah just recently broke through the 100-speed barrier this past August and has averaged just shy of 103 in his last three outings.  Inshallah generally runs well back and tries to close late.  In his last race, he set the pace and started to wore down later in the race.  Be interesting to see if he tries for the lead, but that plan doesn’t look fruitful in this race.  Inshallah is making his first graded race appearance and I don’t see him being a factor, but the experience will not hurt him.

6.  Age of Base   5-2

In 25 career starts, Age of Base has never finished worse than forth and a record of 8-11-4.  His last race was his first start in a graded event and he performed well, finishing a strong second in a career best speed of 110.  This year, he has an average speed of about 105 and he fits well in this field.  He is traveling a bit to make this race and how this will impact him is a question mark.  Still, I think he will be fine and expect him to hit the board. 

7.  Australia 9-2

Australia has three graded starts in his career and has a second and a third.  His first graded start was two years ago and was dismal.  The other two starts were over his last 3 races and he has shown some good efforts, albeit, in smaller fields.  But he is competitive against larger fields, with a win and place earlier this year in fields of 12.  He looks promising.

Selections:

Water Landing looks to be in a very good spot to me.  I think he can get an uncontested lead in this race and it may be tough for others to catch up in this 6-furlong race.

Ace of Base is very consistent and should put in another very good effort and gets my second choice.

Australia gets the third spot, just edging out Moon Cat., but I would use both in the triples.