In the Meon time I am off to Argos to by a Hoover

Race : Filly Grand Prix – Grade I – $500,000
Track : Surrey (ENG)
Restrictions : Fillies and mares, 2 years old
Distance : One mile on the Turf
Number: 4449.3413

We are at Ascot today for the fillies mile. For some strange reason Ascot has moved Counties to Surrey this could be rather confusing for anyone using a satellite navigation system to drive to the meeting. This race is usually won by a very good filly and this can be seen by some of the past winners.

Quick As Lightning the last classic winner sired by Buckpasser.
Height OF Fashion multiple classic producing dam and one of the best mares in the stud book over the last 20 years.
Oh So Sharp won the fillies version of the triple crown (which includes a race against the colts).
Diminuendo top class race mare.
Culture Vulture a very good race horse and her offspring have done very well as well.
Bosra Sham top class racehorse.
Reams Of Verse another top class racehorse that has been very good at stud.
Gossamer another good filly from a very good family.
Soviet Song another top class filly.
Playful Act world record breaking price when sold as a broodmare.

The real race is sponsored by the Meon Valley Stud they are one of the leading breeders in the UK. Here is there website http://www.meonvalleystud.co.uk/

As for the horses in the race this year at the four day stage here are the pedigrees.

George Washington-Rainbow Quest-Home Guard
Doyen-Ballacashtal-Scottish Rifle
Galileo-Storm Cat-Mr Prospector
Bernardini-Summer Squall-Roberto
Galileo-Pennekamp-J O Tobin
More Than Ready-Zafonic-Golden Fleece
Dynaformer-Seeking The Gold-Storm Cat
Danehill Dancer-Sadler’s Wells-Mr Prospector

Of those 8 horses only one has a pedigree that does not include a grade 1 winner on turf in Europe though two of the sires in the pedigree are sons of horses that won on turf in England.

RAGING INDY (IRE) CAPE CROSS (IRE) x A.P. INDY x FORTY NINER

Cape Cross as a sire in the sim has been given a really raw deal at the expense of sires like this horses dam sire on turf. His record is top class. In 2010 he is 11th on the list of sire in the world by number of graded winners. He has 33 graded winners in the last 7 years. A look at his sim record leaves you think what has happened (well that is the printable version). He is the sire of Sea The Stars and has another top class horse this year Behkabad who could well win the Arc next weekend. This filly has shown a progressive profile and has proven herself at the trip. She will have to run faster than she has before and handle the jump in class. If she does she has a decent chance of making the frame.

INCREDIBLE GLOW (KY) GHOSTZAPPER x SEATTLE SLEW x STRIKE THE GOLD

Mike has downgraded this sire who has had a bad sale at Keeneland massive losses for consignors of his stock. He really needs another massive downgrade this year as he will struggle to attract mares at all in 2011 and is really not much better than a 20 point sire. This horse’s whole pedigree says I hate the turf. The filly has done ok expect for one bad run. She stays the trip a bonus and has won in stakes company. If handling graded class should run well. The filly will probably want further in time.

MAJOR DIG (JPN) DAIWA MAJOR (JPN) x MINING x NUREYEV

This horse has a believe able breeding so gets credit for being well thought out his dam sire spending time in Japan at stud. I like this kind of horse and it is nice to see someone using their brain to good effect. On a side note I part owned a filly that used to wear Mining old head collar from when he was at stud in the USA. The sire was a very good racehorse over a number of years in Japan and was versatile in terms of distance. He has his first yearlings so we cannot tell very much about him so far except that he would have been popular at stud in Japan. This horse has been graded placed which is a bonus. She was well beaten over 7f last time behind some other runners in this race. Unless the step up in trip makes a big difference her chances look slim.

A.P. PRINCESSA (KY) A.P. INDY x EL PRADO (IRE) x DANEHILL

You have to go back to 2002 to find three horses by A P Indy who have run in Britain with a rating over 100. That horse in 2002 was Mineshaft his form was so bad he as a 3yo colt would not of been good enough to make the frame in this race. A P Indy needs a massive downgrade in terms of turf ability in the sim. This horse has done well so far and improved for a step up to this trip last time. It may well be this trip is on the sharp side for her in time. Her speed figures have to improve and she has to prove she handles graded class and one cannot be sure of this. She has outside prospects of a place.

D’S SPIRIT (IRE) INVINCIBLE SPIRIT (IRE) x DIESIS (GB) x DEPUTY MINISTER

The front end of this horses breeding is classic use of Danzig to Sharpen Up which works so well. Invincible Spirit is doing very well at stud with 7 graded stakes winners in 2010 which put him in the top 20 sires in the world. He seems to be doing well with the better mares his initial results attracted. He is probably a sire that may well get upgraded next year in the sim and offers value for money. This filly is a graded winner against colts a the course as well. She is stepping up in trip today and needs to show improvement on her last few runs to be in the shake up at the finish. That is not beyond the realms of possibility.

SHAKETHEGROUND (GB) AUTHORIZED x MR. PROSPECTOR x DANZIG

This is another sire with his first yearlings in 2010. He has though seemed to have not done as well as one would expect in the sim given his race profile as a grade1 winner at two and three included in open age company. He has the profile of a good sire to be. This horse has done well so far she really liked the step up to 8f on her last start running a very good speed figure to boot. If she handles the jump up to graded company she has to have a big chance in this race.

CAT ROCKER (IRE) ROCK OF GIBRALTAR (IRE) x STORM CAT x MR. PROSPECTOR

Rock Of Gibraltar has had a quiet year this reflects he was leased to Japan for a year. He therefore only has 2yo’s racing over there in saying that he has had 4 graded winners this year which is not bad. He is a decent sire without being top class and should be popping out about 3 graded winners per full crop in the sim. This horse has been improving for steps up in trip which is good news. The bad news is she was beaten in a nw1x last time out. There is a big step from there to wining at graded level at best she can run into a place in this field.

MIDNIGHT STRIKE (KY) SMART STRIKE (CAN) x DANZIG x SEATTLE SLEW

Smart Strike has a very similar record to Rock Of Gibraltar in that he has 4 graded winners this year over the last 7 years he has 35 where as Rock Of Gibraltar has 33. You would expect them to have similar level of abilities in the sim as well. The one thing Smart Strike has going for him is he tends to throw to his dams in terms of surface and race type always a good thing as they say he transmits class. This horse won her first three races but was beaten last time. That may have been a bounce run and her trainer is the person in the sim who tends to understand these form cycles better than others. If this was the case and she handles the step up in trip she has good prospects of making the frame.

K’S EGO ‘N DENIAL (KY) GIANT’S CAUSEWAY x A.P. INDY x NIJINSKY II (CAN)

I had a look in two places to see if I could see any proof of Giant’s Causeway and A P Indy doing well together in real life and I have found none. Giant’s Causeway has had 6 graded winners in 2010 and there does appear to be a drop of in his records. He is also becoming less popular at the sales. He is obviously over rated in the sim by a long way compared to real life. This filly is unbeaten including in graded races so can handle the class. She is off a long rest and trying a mile for the first time. Her class is not in question and if the trip is not a problem breeding suggest it should not be she should be in the mix at the end of the race.

THE EMPIRE STATE (IND) MARCUS ANDRONICUS x EMPIRE MAKER x THEATRICAL (IRE)

I think we have the worst rated sire in the sim. This horse has over 6% stakes winners to runners. He only ever won a maiden as a 2yo lacked size and substance (I know I saw him racing) and had questions over his mental attitude. He should not be in the best three sires in India let alone a 6% stakes producing sire. The best sires in India are by a long way Placerville and Razeen with Noverre being the other based on a solid record in Europe. This horse has to be rated a long way below all three there is no way he is rated below Placerville and Razeen he needs a 95% reduction in his ability straight away. This filly has a good record and has won a stakes race. Her poor run was over 7f so the trip could be an issue but she was running on in that race. If she stays she has chances of making the frame.

BIG BROWN ROBOT (KY) BIG BROWN x DEPUTY MINISTER (CAN) x DANEHILL

It is worth noting that big Brown’s sister an in England and was a very poor horse indeed. It is hard to see him having much influence outside of America to be honest unless eh shuttles to Argentina where he should do well. This horse has a poor breeding with the terrible Deputy Minister as a dam sire. He has a poor record outside of the USA as so many of his horses bleed. If you introduced regional racing in the sim then these well know characteristics which make sires unpopular in certain areas need to be considered. This horse has done well with the switch to turf and has proven a liking for the trip. As long as they handle the class rise they have decent prospects of making the frame.

LUCKY’S DODIE (KY) A.P. INDY x GHOSTZAPPER x SADLER’S WELLS

This horse’s breeding s dire and even Sadler’s Wells could not save it for turf racing. This horse has a place and that is in sellers at Southwell mind with Sadler’s Wells in the pedigree it would struggle to act there. Poorly bred horses should result in failure just throwing names together is not a recipe for success. There are several well thought out pedigrees in this race which deserve any success coming their way. This horse improved speed wise for a switch to turf. The increased speed figure could well have been down to the soft field in that race. The jury is somewhat out. In time this horse may do well over further though that is not always the case with a closer. On turf speed figures the horse has place prospects.

CARRIE CARRIE (KY) FIRST SAMURAI x FERDINAND x MR. PROSPECTOR

First Samurai has his first yearlings selling this year. He has done very well indeed which should be seen as a positive sign. It is interesting he is a son of Giant’s Causeway and his stock now he is being bred as a dirt sire more seem more unsound than when he started out. This does raise the question of whether it is the surface or poor training methods causing the breakdowns. It is worth noting several owners from the US are sending horses to Europe to be trained as 2yo’s over the past few years. This filly has to have a very good chance in this race she was second over 7f last time in a graded race and was finishing like an express train. The extra furlong should suit and will probably bring about improvement has a very good chance here.

THE BEE’S KNEES (IRE) SEA THE STARS (IRE) x STORM CAT x FUSAICHI PEGASUS

I cannot see this sire getting sent many mares with this breeding to be honest with you. He has been given a lofty sim rating which based on results of other sires somewhat kind. In truth you could argue Authorized has better statistical prospects of being a top class sire. Time will tell if that is the case. This filly is unbeaten so far and tires a mile for the first time. That is not given to suit on breeding but looks like it will do so. She is a graded winner and open to improvement as well. She should run well and has obvious claims in this race.

As for my selections:-

1 Carrie Carrie
2 The Bee’s Knees
3 K’s Ego ‘N Denial