No Galileo telescope must be broke

Race : The Future – Grade II – $250,000
Track : Ireland
Race: 4421.5914

This race has really taken off over the last dozen years. It is now regularly used as a stepping stone to bigger and better things. Many of the winners have gone on to be top racehorses and or stallions. It is run at the Curragh which is a very fair galloping track. This tends to mean nine times out of ten the best horse wins and the form tends to be very reliable over the long term. Since 1999 the follow have won and gone onto success at stud or appear to have decent stud carriers ahead of them. It is worth noting 3 of the last 5 winners have been sired by Galileo.

Giant’s Causeway won the race in 1999 and then was a really good tough top class race horse the following year.
He has done very well at stud and regularly has lots of graded winners this is though from lot’s of runners. He is a top sire in the sim but based on percentages he does do to well in the sim versus real life. There are signs his stud carrier is on the decline sales results are not so good and he now shuttles to Argentina. He is also down on graded winners in 2010.

Hawk Wing was an impressive winner of this race and went onto be a very good horse at three and four. His win at Newbury as a 4yo was visibly the best performance of the decade so far by a racehorse. The problem is he never backed it up again. At stud he was not that good he has had some success but it appears Woodman got the best of him. Like so many of that sires offspring temperament outweighed ability in many cases. He is now in Korea and would be a good stallion out there for regional racing fans.

Van Nistelroy won probably the worse running of this race in 20 years. He was a record purchase at the sales. This was the high light of his racing carrier. He still got retired to stud and as many Coolmore stallions do had a very good first year. He failed to build on that at all and would not be much better than a 35 point sire now. I doubt he will be on the roster very much longer and could well get shipped to New Zealand where he did well for the seasons he shuttled.

Oratorio I assume it was the Aussie one that got downgraded in the sim not this one. His first crop were 2yo’s last year and did ok with a grade 1 winner in that crop. He has already had a graded winning 2yo. He is likely never to be a superstar sire but should be capable of getting a couple of graded winners per crop. I get the feeling his mares well may do well in future as he usually throws strong individuals.

Teofilo was an unbeaten top class 2yo. Problem was he never ran again. The record of this kind of horse over the last 20 years is not great think Vindication as a prime example. In fact so far you could say their real life profiles are very well matched top class 2yo’s well supported at stud with good yearling sales records. Vindication was a poor sire horrible and incorrectly over rated in the sim. This fellows rating is much more realistic and it will interesting to see how these horse do on the track.

New Approach is another unbeaten grade 1 winning son of Galileo as a 2yo as above. The big difference is he went onto classic success at three and won a couple of open age grade 1’s putting up a world leading run on his last start. He statistically is a better stallion prospect than Sea The Stars based on the best stallions of graded winners over the past decade. In fact he has been the best prospect retired to stud in the sim for basically the last 10 years. He is undervalued so far and should be well above Curlin but has been shafted. It would be no surprise to see him in the top ten sires of graded winners worldwide in 5 years time.

The pedigrees of the runners in this year’s race were as follows:-

Distorted Humor- Sadler’s Wells-Riverman
Leroidesanimaux-Saint Ballado-Capote
Danehill Dancer-Mt Livermore-Bold Bidder
Mr Greeley-Caerleon-Shairley Heights
Oasis Dream-Sadler’s Wells-Habitat
Halling-Night Shift-Groom Dancer
Galileo-Last Tycoon-Royal And Regal

It is interesting to see the field make up for this race. The pedigrees are far more diverse than in prior years. This has to be a good thing and is very encouraging. I myself have been a critic of how unrealistic pedigrees were in the past so have to give serious credit for what not only in this race but in general appears to be a move in the right direction. It also means players have to think more about what they are breeding and should be more willing to experiment.

GUNS LIKE GIRLS (IRE) DANEHILL DANCER (IRE) x UNBRIDLED x MR. PROSPECTOR

Danehill Dancer is one of the leading sires in the world right now. He is one of only three sires that have reached double figures for graded stakes winners in 2010. He has worked his way up from a very cheap sire to having one of the largest fees in the world. It is worth pointing out his best crops in terms of mares bred to have still to race. With Dubai yearling expenditure reduced considerably he will attract a better book of mares in 2011. This horse has done really well so far. He is unbeaten including on an off track. He obviously needs to step up in class and this is an ideal race to test the waters. As long as he handles the jump to graded class he holds excellent hopes of making the frame here.

BLAST OFFF (AUS) NORTHERN METEOR (AUS) x AGNES TACHYON (JPN) x FLYING SPUR (AUS)

This horse’s sire has done well in the sim so far. He got a good book of mares at stud so should get graded runners in real life. The dam sire has sired four graded winners in Japan this year but that means little as there is no real open competition over there and effectively the races are still restricted stakes races and should be judged as such. This horse has done well and improved for each run. His last was a stakes win in a massive speed figure over this course and distance. A repeat of that run makes him a leading player here and the one to beat.

KFAST BB (JPN) SAKURA BAKUSHIN O (JPN) x PRIMO DOMINIE (GB) x MOSSMAN (AUS)

This horse’s sire is based in Japan as the name might suggest. He has 15 graded winners there in the last 7 years. We have to take into account none are grade 1 winners and more importantly they are basically restricted stakes races as well. As an example I am sure they have some graded races in Canada for horse bred their how do players judge that from in North America. This is how all form from Japan should be judged. It is evident sires based in Japan are over rated as a generic group considerably and need downgrading by 20-25% as a whole except Sunday Silence as a dam sire. This horse broke his maiden in his last start. This is a massive jump up in class. His speed figures are a long way below the best horses here as well. He would appear to be a long shot to win this race on the evidence at hand. As a side not the sires pedigree in the sim is wrong the sires sire is TESCO BOY not Raise A Native.

K.M. RED ROCKER (IRE) ROCK OF GIBRALTAR (IRE) x RED RANSOM x CAERLEON

ROG has done well at stud without setting the world alight. He has built up a solid record of 3 graded winners over the last seven years. That is pretty decent and put him in the top 30 sire’s worldwide in terms of graded winners over that time period he is level with Distorted Humor in fact. Red Ransom is interesting as a dam sire as he has only sired 3 grade 1 winners and except for the very good filly in America this year the winners came in South Africa and Brazil not exactly top notch stuff. This horse is unbeaten and that includes a graded race over 5f. He is stepping up in trip now. As long as the step up in trip is not an issue he has to be considered a player in this race as we know he handles this sort of class.

FENWAY PARK (KY) FORESTRY x CAME HOME x PULPIT

Forestry got downgraded in the sim this year but not by enough. He is a terrible turf sire as well 4 winners none above grade 3 level as well and all in the US tells us how bad last week’s Arlington Million showed the gulf in class between US turf racing and that in Europe and elsewhere. In fact he should not be able to sire a horse capable of making the frame in a graded turf race especially with the back end of this pedigree. His record on dirt is much better and he should sire graded winners on dirt. This horse has done well winning his maiden on his second start and then running second in a graded race. He has to improve to win this but based on his ability to handle the class can run a place.

LOSTAGULCH (AUS) MAGNUS (AUS) x GULCH x FORESTRY

This horse’s sire has not had any runners yet. I can remember him running in a lot of top international sprints and always losing. His race record does not suggest e would be a top line stallion by any stretch of the imagination. At his stud I would rather use God’s Own. His foals have not sold very well a top fee of Aus$67k is not that good many have made a loss against stud fee. He would appear to have an uphill struggle to make is as sire. This horse has a nice progressive profile and it would appear should like this step up in trip. He has to prove he can handle graded company which is not a given but if translating his speed figure last time out and what would appear to be a liking for longer trips could mean he make the frame here.

JOSE RIVERA II (FR) NAAQOOS (GB) x AGNES TACHYON (JPN) x A P VALENTINE

This horses sire was a good 2yo how did not train on a three. He is a son of one off the leading sires in the world right now in Oasis Dream so would have had a good book of mares at stud this year. S for this dam sire having two runners in a race like this no chance ever. I mean my chances of winning the 100 meters at the London Olympics in 2012 are greater. I could not even win the women’s 100 meters if I had a South African passport. This horse is a dual stakes winner. The negative being he was unplaced in his only try in graded company. It would appear that stretching out suits him. He has to be considered in this race although I think one or two maybe will have his measure.

As for my selections:-

1 Blast Off looks an improver and will like the trip
2 Guns Like Girls nice profile and can step up here
3 K.M. Red Rocker proven ability in this class of race