Romans, Vikings and Chocolate it must be York

Race : Judgemont International – Grade I – $600,000
Track : Surrey (ENG)
Race:4414.3409

We travel to York this week for the Juddmonte International Stakes. It seems strange there is not a sim race track for Yorkshire the world’s oldest classic horse race is run here and with York they have one of the top racecourses in the world. There are in fact over a dozen racecourses in Yorkshire. When we have tracks in North Korea (no racing) Greece one course and Belgium (one tracks hared with trotting) it just does not add up. Yorkshire is also one of the three main bases for training horses in the UK. Plenty of good studs are there especially for raising yearlings on the moors.

This is a top class race and has been won by many good horses over the time it has been raced. In fact it is the bad horses that have won which are easier to list.

The track at York is galloping by nature and has a nice long straight. The ground is on clay so can become sticky when wet and at times can be soft on top and hard below somewhat like a sloppy dirt track. Plenty of horses do not handle the surface even though the track is flat and fair. A few other things to mention on the round course up to 10 1/2furlongs a draw in single is very important. The other fact which may seem strange is that front runners or horses near the pace do very well at York. This is rare for a galloping track with a long straight.

The first running of the race was won by Roberto in the fastest ever time standard measured by Timeform for some reason they downgraded the rating. He went onto be a very good sire and dam sire at stud. He should still be a top class dam dam sire in the sim.

Caerleon won this race and was a very good sire. He has built up an excellent record as a dam sire as well with 50 graded stakes winner in the last 7 years. Worldwide that puts him in tenth place over the period in terms of graded stake winners. Two of the sires have built that record in South America and are not in the same class as him. There is no reason or excuse for him not to e ion the top 10 dam sires in the game right now. If he is not he needs an upgrade ASAP to get there.

It is worth noting 4 top class fillies have won this race in Dahlia (twice), Tryptich, In The Groove and One So Wonderful.

Ezzoud won this race twice in the mid 1990’s but was not that good as a sire and or a dam sire to be honest.

Halling also won the race twice and has gone on to be a very good sire even though he has been badly managed by Darley. He spent several years in Dubai. He has had 19 graded stakes winners in the last 7 years. That is a solid record which is not reflected in the sim. He should do far better than he does. He is an excellent source of stamina as well.

Singspiel as mentioned over the last several weeks is a good sire with a top class record. He recently passed away but he really does need a massive boost in the sim he should be in the same class of Dynaformer. He has plenty of good mares and should make a decent dam sire.

Giant’s Causeway has been a very good sire and is one of the highest rated in the sim. In truth he is over rated based on percentage of stakes winners to runners. He is also not doing so well in the sales ring of late and that would suggest the quality of his mares has been dropping off. He is though in the top 20 sires in the world.

Nayef has done ok at stud so far and is getting bred to better mares after a decent start. Those yearlings should come on line this year. He is capable of siring graded stakes winners and with a full crop should get 2 a year based on his stud record so far.

Notnowcato has been well supported so far at stud by some shrewd owner’s and investors. He is not likely to sire many sharp 2yo’s but with horses that improve with age he is likely to do well. As most people breeding to him are owner breeders he should do well and get stakes winners. He will likely do even better as a dam sire in time.

Authorized was a very good racehorse. He went to stud with a top class profile and should be rated highly in the sim. He was a grade 1 winning 2yo grade 1 winning 3yo and more importantly a grade 1 winning 3yo in open age company. That is what the majority of the best stallions in the world do as racehorses. There are plenty of unproven sires rated higher than him in the sim with less chance of making the grade. His foal yearling sales so far have been positive. He is also from the same family as this year’s classic winning 3yo Makfi.

Duke Of Marmalade same name as another very good horse which is not a help. He was a very good racehorse at 4 but his record at three was nothing to get excited about. He should be rated some way below Authorized based on the record of the vast majority of the world’s top stallions. Dylan Thomas has much more to offer.

Sea The Stars is the sim buzz horse this year after an outstanding 3yo season. He got an excellent book of mares. I cannot see him having many winners before August and most of his offspring should improve with age. In truth I cannot see how he was rated higher than New Approach who based on statistics was the best horse to retire to stud anywhere in the world for several years. In all honesty he should not be rated any higher than Authorized. This probably tells you more about Authorized undervalue in the sim than that of Sea The Stars.

The horses that ran in the race this year had the following pedigrees.

Maria’s Mon-Fabulous Dancer-Riverman-Hail To Reason
Peintre Celebre-Woodman-Rainbow Quest-Nijinsky
Halling-Highest Honor-Silver Hawk-Hawaii
Halling-Danzig-Mr Prospector-Seattle Slew
Galileo-Stravinsky-Don’t Forget Me-Shareef Dancer
Choisir-Thatching-Crytsal Palace-Faunus
Observatory-Caerleon-Blushing Groom-Cloudy Dawn
Arakan-Sharrood-So Blessed-Charlotesville

The winner was the Galileo colt Rip Van Wrinkle that took him a clear second in number of graded wins worldwide in 2010 to Oasis Dream with Danehill Dancer the only other horse with double figures. When we consider the number of graded runners to runners it is obvious Galileo is the best sire active at stud right now.

The other graded stakes winners on the day were Waiter’s Dream (excellent 2yo colt) Oasis Dream-Persian Bold-Northfields-Dancer’s Image. It is worth noting that Oasis Dream has had a graded winner on the first three days of the meeting so far. Repeating a feat he also achieved in 2009.

Rewilding half brother to Do Ra Mi very easy winner Tiger Hill-Top Ville-Abdos-Venture he just shows how those Aga Khan female families are so strong.

DANEHRO (AUS) LONHRO (AUS) x DANEHILL DANCER (IRE) x RED RANSOM

All the sires here do really well in Australia. Lohnro was a very good race horse and has done well at stud so far. He has had 4 graded stakes winners of 4 graded stakes races in 2010. This puts him equal 57Th in the graded stakes winners list in 2010 along with the likes of Distorted Humor, Pulpit, Singspiel and Tiger Hill. This horse was very good this time last year. In 2010 his form has fallen off somewhat, this can happen though. He is still capable of running a decent speed figure though. I doubt he will win but if putting his best foot forward he could make the frame.

LOONEY TUNES (JPN) FORTY NINER x DEPUTY MINISTER (CAN) x NUREYEV

This horse’s sire is one of those you just have to shake your head to. His real life record and sim record bear no comparison. He really needs a rating reduction of at least 50%. It is really hard to make out a case for this horse in this race. His recent form has been pretty dire and would struggle to see him make the frame here. He has been running in sprints. I am guessing that the change of trip is seen as a way of improving form but I see no obvious reason why. He looks more of a miler and a graded win over that trip this year seems to back the theory up.

QUAINT (IRE) MONTJEU (IRE) x CAERLEON x PRINCE JOHN

It is nice to see a horse with a breeding that backs up my pre amble. His dam sire Caerleon a previous winner of this race and outstanding broodmare sire. On a side note Caerleon is by Newport in Wales and was the seat of the knights Round Table therefore a very well named horse. There is a son now making fun of the Jay Z song on the internet that was used at the Belmont Stakes by some people from Newport. This horse is still on the upgrade. He is in good form as well. He appears to like the trip as well. He is building up a common pattern of good run not so good run that many sim horses have. He therefore is due another good run and has a very good chance of making the frame.

JOHN DEERE (JPN) ALKAASED x SUMMER SQUALL x FAPPIANO

This horse’s sire showed all the signs on the racecourse of not making it as a stallion. He hardly ran due to injuries until the age of four. He then improved with age and racing. None of these are good signs especially given he is a son of Kingmambo a stallion that produces many horse’s prone to injury. He is at stud in Japan and to be honest it would be a major shock if he sires anything of any note or worth. He should be rated the same as horses like Ibn Bey. This horse has been run ok of late. He was second in a graded race over this trip in a decent speed figure recently. He would need a repeat o that to have a chance of winning. That is not the most amazing thing that could happen in this race and he could make the frame.

RIVER SUN (NY) SUNRIVER x ICECAPADE x DR. FAGER

I know someone who is a pickpocket and he recently went to Saudi Arabia and got caught twice. Luckily he was on hand (or should I say stump) when I was checking the number of grade 1 turf horses of an international rating of 120 bred in the last 10 years from stallion based in New York state. I was able to count them on his fingers that’s right zero. This horse is bred to be a skid and should be a pedigree like this has no place in a top class international grade 1 race. To make matters even worse this is a very good horse indeed. He is in excellent form and has been well managed by his trainer as well. A few subpar runs of late but he appears the sort that could well bounce back to form here and make the frame.

TEE JAY ‘S GREAT KRIS KIN x KAHYASI(IRE) x DIXIELAND BAND

This horse’s sire is now a national hunt sire and is not doing so well in that field. The dam sire Kahyasi was a very good race horse and decent sire and is now doing very well as a dam sire. He has had 16 graded winners as a brood mare sire in the last 7 years. This is not bad and there are plenty of sires much higher rated with records not much better for example Forty Niner who has had 20 winners in the same period. There should not be much of a difference in the ratings of these two horses in truth. This horse is now an 8yo and in truth his form and ability has slipped from its peak. It is very hard to make out a case for him in this race and maybe it is time to retire the horse and breed to a very good son of Danehill.

RED FOG (KY) SEEKING THE GOLD x THEATRICAL (IRE) x DANZIG

This horse has been in decent form and running well of late. The obvious thing that jumps out of the horse’s form is his record at races over 12f+ a second and two wins. If it was me I would be going next for a race like the Irish St Leger. HE looks ideal for the race. This horse is still improving and that has to be an added bonus as well. He looks like he can make the frame but in my opinion could be a really serious horse in the top staying races if given a chance. This is really hard to believe as STG offspring in Europe cannot stay an inch more than 10f really nice horse.

IN THE CROSSHAIRS (KY) DYNAFORMER x ROYAL ACADEMY x KINGMAMBO

Royal Academy has an excellent record as a dam sire in real life. He has been the dam sire of 35 winners worldwide in the last 7 years. This puts him well up the list and he should be within the top 50 in the game based on these statistics. He therefore offers good value for money as he is usually available to use most weekends. This horse is still improving and was placed in his first graded race in his last start. He has to step up again to make the frame here. The good news on that side is he is an improving horse and can do so. I do think there are one or two in here that are better and should beat him.

LIGHT TRIPPER (IRE) SADLER’S WELLS x MR. PROSPECTOR x BUCKPASSER

Sadler’s Wells is easily the leading dam sire in the world right now by some way. His total of 13 graded winners so far this year leaves him well clear of the rest. He needs to be rated the highest in the sim which suggest there are plenty of sires that need a large downgrade. How can Storm Cat be rated above him makes no sense at all that horse has about only 75% of his ability and needs a substantial downgrade to reflect this. This is a very good horse indeed. He has won his last three races including 2 graded races. The trip is ideal as well. The only major concern would be the dreaded sim bounce that seems to follow these good runs. If that does not happen he has to have an excellent chance here.

I AM MISTER ED (KY) THEATRICAL (IRE) x MILL REEF x LYPHARD

Theatrical was downgrade in the sim a couple of years ago. It is obvious this downgrade was not enough and the horse is still overrated. He is an inferior sire to Halling his record of 13 graded wins in the same period as Halling’s hall of 19 shows. His sim record is far better. It blatantly shows he needs a large down grade and Halling needs a big uplift. This horse again shows the need for the reduction in ages of dam sires in the sim after the horse’s death. I have stated before how long it is since Mill Reef had a foaled horse as a graded winner. This horse won over this trip on his last start after some decent runs over further. This appears his ideal trip today and a reproduction of his last effort could well see him make the frame again.

LAMBASTE (ENG) DENOUNCE x THE MINSTREL x ELA-MANA-MOU (IRE)

This horse’s sire stands in England has about as much chance of siring a graded stakes racehorse as I do. If we take this with the New York bred horse we have two horses here that given the mathematical probability are over 10,000-1 of either being a graded horse let alone two in the same race!!!!! This has been a very good horse for a long time now. He continues to run well in this sort of race and grade usually making the fame. His sped figures continue to hold up and as usual he should be a threat in this race.

As for my selections:-

1 Quaint good horse and in right sort of form
2 Light Tipper loves trip class horse
3 Lambaste good tough type