The only snails are on your plate

Race : Jack The Man Stakes – Grade II – $500,000
Track : Deauville (FR)
Restrictions : All horses, 3 years old and up
Distance : One mile on the Turf

We are in France this week by the seaside. This is one of the top mile turf races in the world and yet is only classed as a grade 2 in the sim. If this is a grade 2 then a race like the Shadwell Mile at Keeneland is at best an ungraded stakes. The role of honour inthis race is top class as you would expect and some of the best stallions in the world over a long period have won this race.

If we can go back to 1972 we see our first top class winner and stallion of the modern era.

Lyphard a purchase from Keeneland not from the select book along with three other horses by the Head family one of the others was Riverman. That is what I call bloodstock buying. He was a top class racehorse and was an outstanding sire both in France and then when exported to the USA. He is at present the only sire to appear twice in the top 10 active horses pedigrees in 2010 on ability this year in the real world. He still offers great ability and should be one of the best DDS in the game.

Kalamoun and Kenmare were both good French sires and have good record as dam sires in real life. They suck in the sim and do need upgrading as many French horses do. They offer that Grey Sovereign line breeding which does outstandingly well with horses such as Montjeu (in fact his best nick by miles).

Irish River the son of Riverman was another top class racehorse who then went on to be a top class stallion like his Dad at first in France and later in the USA. He still offers a lot as a dam sire. Over the last 7 years he has been the dam sire of 27 graded winners in real life. That makes him very good but some way below the very best.

Lear Fan was a serious good 2yo and won this open age grade 1 at three. He had the form to make a top sire and did not let the side down. He was really one of the last batch of horse that raced in Europe before being sold to stud in the USA. It is no surprise then that US bred horses tend to offer little now to the global bloodstock market like they did in their heyday of the late 70’s to mid 80’s.
Lear Fan has sired 20 graded stakes winners in the period compared to Irish River so is obviously below him but still decent.

Polish Precedent he was never a top class sire but did get some very good horses. Problem was these were few and far between. The very odd ones tended to be tough and as well as plenty of ability were a bit quirky. He has had 9 graded winners as a dam sire in the period above he is obviously worth using as he should get a graded winner per year. He is also very cheap to use in the sim. Worth noting when breeding sales are on.

Exit To Nowhere still stands as a national hunt sire in the British Isles somewhere. This half brother to Machiavellian probably is on no one’s list to use in the sim. His sim rating is very poor indeed. He is though a very good dam sire given the number of mares he has. He has had 12 graded winners in the period and being younger than those above shows a decent return. He is obviously better than rated in the sim requires a decent upgrade and is probably about worth 80% of the ability of Lear Fan.

Spinning World what a horrible sire he was. He had one of the best books of mares as a first crop sire and just was a total wash out he was well bred both sides of pedigree as well. He has four graded winners as a dam sire but is younger than those above. He has not sired a graded winner since 2004 which suggests he needs a very low rating in the sim at present a lot lower than his current ability levels.

Dubai Millennium was an outstanding race horse in any era. He only had one crop at stud that did well. They were out of excellent mares but his statistics hold up. He looked a major loss to the breeding industry. His best son and a winner of this race is the leading second crop sire in the world.

Muhtathir again another sire not on many people’s list but given his small crops and poor mares he has done very well. Is offspring are tough and hold their form over many years like he did. He has the added bonus of being from the Sharpen Up male line. Three of his four graded winner over the last 7 years have won grade 1 races. He is more than capable given larger and better quality books of mares to be able to sire at least one graded winner per crop and a couple of stakes winners as well. He also offers a very good way to breed back to Danzig lien stallions that do so well anywhere that is not the US and who’s sim record needs upgraded as a generic group.

Dubawi was a top class 2yo he was a grade 1 winner as well. At three he was a classic winner and an open age grade 1 winner of this race. He therefore had the perfect profile for a stallion grade 1 winner at 2, 3 and 3+ (when 3). He was the stand out potential sire of his year but not rated so in the sim. On the race course his offspring have proved it. He is by far the best second crop sire. He is deserving of a massive upgrade in to the top 40 sires in the sim come next year 9 graded winners already tells you what you need to know and he already has a 2yo graded winner in 2010. Compare his record to the pathetic Ghostzapper the horse the sim thought would be best and there is no doubt looking at past top stallions is the way to access potential ability for new stallions in the sim. It would also remove perceived bias as well.

Librettist is doing really well with his first 2yo’s he has a good percentage of winners to runners a well. He also has a dual graded winner to boot. He is based in France and therefore offers some extra interest as many French sires are grossly under valued by the sim and regional racing gives extra places to run. He should and has sired graded winner in the sim in the past. He won this and the Moulin as a 4yo very few horse have done the double and those in the past have been very good at stud Irish River and Miesque being two of the other three.

Manduro was a top class racehorse at 5. This may well be his problem as his stock are likely to take a long time to reach their peak. He should though sire some very good horses. At present there is no reason why he should be rated any better than Librettist even though he had a bigger worldwide profile. In fact given his 2y race record he should be rated slightly lower.

Tamayuz was a serious racehorse and won this as a 3yo. This means given the profile of the top stallions in the world he should have been given a high sim rating. He should have been rated above Big Brown form the same intake. When you consider his pedigree as well it is the best around his dam is a half sister to a grade 1 producing sire. Herself a half sister to class producing winning sire King’s best and of course Arc winner and multiple classic producing mare Urban Sea herself dam of Galileo best sire under 20 in the world and of course new sim starlet Sea The Stars. Another half sister is the dam of a multiple German classic producing sire of the last 5 years a well. He deserved to have a very good rating and plenty of Shadwell mares would not have harmed his prospects as well.

GHISCARI (KY) DYNAFORMER x GONE WEST x RAISE A NATIVE

Dynaformer has had another good year so far in 2010 with 6 graded winners so far. He is though close to being signed off and it would be no surprise to see him retired from stud duties later this year. I did not realize until recently he is meant to be a bit of a nut case if this is true then mixed with Gone West that is not a good idea in a breeding. This horse has been well managed by his owner and he or she knows how to give him a soft run when the bounce is likely to take place. This I believe benefits horses in the long term. The bounce came last out after a top class run the race before. He is looking to come back to top form here. There is no reason why not and in a tightly matched field he has decent prospects of making the frame.

CHINCHILLA (IRE) MONTJEU (IRE) x KINGMAMBO x MILL REEF

The first thing to say about this horse is there is no way he would be effective over such a short trip in real life. His sire is top class and has had 7 graded winners this year and 45 over the last 7 years this is better than Dynaformer who has had 32. Kingmambo got his first grade 1 winner of the year as a dam sire at the weekend. This is a solid horse but of late he has been a bit in and out at his best he can win this. The problem is there is his best and then some pretty poor runs. The only thing you can hope is the owner is saying ease when beaten to save him now he is past 30 races. If he is that maybe a smart move in the long run. You would have to think from a betting perspective he would not be top of your list.

THIS TIME (CAN) GILDED TIME x SEEKING THE GOLD x STORM CAT

This horse really has no place in this field on breeding he fails the quality test on all counts. His sire though does share his sire with Timeless Times who won 16!!!! Races as a 2yo I bet no horse will do that in the sim. Saying that the structure of racing has changed so is likely never to happen in real life again in Britain. This horse has a good turf record from a few runs the problem is his route record is very poor. In fact he has no wins he has the ability to win a graded turf race but it would have to be a big surprise if he did it in this race. This is down to the trip not lack of ability. He may well off been better served waiting for the Hungerford Stakes or whatever it is called in the sim.

NORTHERN FRONT (KY) NORTH LIGHT (IRE) x AWESOME AGAIN (CAN) x STORM CAT

I have written plenty of times in the past on how bad I expected North Light to be as a sire based on his race record and what that was likely to lead at stud. This has been borne out by the dire results on the track. You do have to feel sorry for people trying to sell yearlings by him this year. A big los has to be expected. The whole front end of this breeding has it ability in the sim with nothing expected in real life both sires at the same stud need massive reductions in ability. This is a very good horse but the problem is he is not a great horse. He always runs his race and usually puts up great speed figures as well. The negative is 5 wins 28 starts. That is not great. He can once again make the frame but a win would be somewhat of a surprise though.

SURLY (KY) MINESHAFT x DEPUTY MINISTER x KINGMAMBO

Mineshaft is having his best year ever in real life with 3 graded winners. This actually doubles his total. Mind he still looks poor when you compare that to his sim record and that of the best sire from that years stallion in take Oasis Dream who has had 11 graded winners this year alone. This is a very good dirt breeding but as for turf racing it is skid time. The only place at Deauville you will see a horse like this running is on the fibresand in a claimer. That being said this is a very good sim horse. His speed figures are excellent and his form very good indeed. The negative maybe is four really good runs and last time he ran a 114 suggest a bounce is about due. If though he runs true to form again he has to be in the mix at the end of the race. This horse has to be a pleasure to own.

NOTHIN’ TO PLUNDER (IRE) EXCELLENT ART (GB) x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY x DANZIG

This horse’s sire was a good racehorse with a nice finishing kick. He was somewhat unlucky he did not win more races but was a graded winner at two and three. His first yearlings go on sale this year it will be interesting to see how they do. He did have a foal sell for 130,000gns last year. This horse does have a miler’s pedigree and on the quality control test passes with flying colours. On breeding he should win this race. He has been doing well lately running good speed figures and has won two graded races this year. His last two runs have been solid but he does need to step up to win this. Age is on his side though and he has decent chances of making the frame.

GAVOTTE (KY) GRAND SLAM x SINGSPIEL (IRE) x BE MY GUEST

Grand Slam is doing ok with his southern hemisphere runners but is not that good a sire really. He has 16 worldwide over the last 7 years. Singspiel has 34 we can see who really has class in fact that is more than Dynaformer which shows how poor Singspiel sim rating is. It is fair to say that Grand Slams sire rating Is not to bad he has 7 graded winners in the last 5 crops Singspiel has 1 bit of a problem there me thinks. Dynaformer has 29 which is not too far out and Mike has done a good job, but when compared to Singspiel who should be his equal seems somewhat unfair. Singspiel therefore obviously needs a massive boost in his ability shame he died. This horse has been running well in graded races but not winning them. You do think he might benefit from a couple of easy wins before coming back up to this level as well. He can run well and make the frame.

As for my selections:-

1 Surly deserves a big win
2 Ghiscari class act
3 Nothin’ To Plunder getting better