The Long John Silver

The Long John Silver, which is running this weekend in Minnesota is not a stakes race, as the name may seem to imply.  Rather, Minnesota is hosting a series of races focused on crowning some of the beloved claimers with a crown denoting them to be the best around.  The Long John Silver is a Start Allowance race which features long distance runners that will go a mile and a half on the dirt.  The field is full of experienced horses which is evidenced by over 570 starts combined in this 14 horse field.  Here’s a look at the field:

1.  Do You Mismay  7-2

The favorite in the race, Do You Mismay, comes off a sharp second in a career best speed of 103.  As a 6-year old, he has been lightly raced, going to the starting gate perhaps about ½ dozen times each year.  He’s done well this year with a third and the before mentioned 2^nd this year in two starts.  The longest he has raced is 10 furlongs, never finishing worse than forth, but does stretch out to 12 tags for this race but his speed numbers may be good enough to pull him through.

2.  Just Add Water  11-1

Trainer Minski2 has recently reacquired Just Add Water after briefly parting ways.  The horse has changed hands several times in his 30-race history and it’s easy to understand why.  He has won 11 of those starts which draws lots of attention from trainers.  He can get speeds up into the mid-90 range but comes off a very disappointing third in a 4-horse field going 2-miles as the 7-5 favorite running 2 miles, a distance he’s done better at in the past.  I’m concerned whether or not he’s ready for the race as he just put that performance in last week.

3. Cribart Kangaroo   13-1

Cribart Kangaroo has seen his share of barns as he’s been moved around a dozen times in his 77-race career.  He can run on both surfaces and seems to perform his best in the low claimer & starter levels.  His speeds are generally in the mid 80’s and it is a rarity that he pops a number in the 90’s.  The winner of this race will need to be able to get a speed rating of 90 or much higher and Cribart just does not fit that picture.

4.  Lugus  19-1

Lugus has fallen onto hard times.  He has not hit the board in his last 8 starts and you have to look back to November of last season to find the last time he paid supporters.  Trainer Bearpride has recently taken ownership of Lugus and will be racing him for the first time since the end of May.  The nearly 2-month rest may help Lugus, but his top speed over the last 8 was chartered at 86, which makes it hard to get excited over this one’s chances.

5.  Nudynagulch  21-1

Nudynagulch has a pretty decent breeding line of Gulch x Dynaformer x Nureyev.  The question is…why can’t this horse win.  In 14 starts, he has a record of 1-0-0.  His record is very lackluster, to be blunt.  However, Nudynagulch has not run on the dirt since last November where he sported a speed of 88.  I think this one may have some potential on the dirt.  I don’t see that coming out in this race, as he’s never gone more than 9 furlongs before and that was more than a year ago. 

6.  Hard Silence  8-1

Hard Silence name seems to fit.  He’s a hard late closer who can quietly sneak up behind you.  In his last claiming race, he rallied from 8 back in the final quarter to miss by 2 strides going 9.5f and a speed of 95.  Another furlong or two and he would’ve taken the win.  He doesn’t hit speeds of 90 often, but when he does, he’s dangerous.  If he’s on his game, he can pull off the upset.

7.  Cody Ohl   22-1

Since the end of 2008, Cody Ohl has changed stables 9 times.  The main reason for this has been his ability to consistently hit the board (over 50% career-wise).  For most of this, he was scoring speeds above 90.  Now the but part….this 7-year olds speed numbers have tailed off since October.  Over his last 8 starts he has an average speed of about 80.  Sub-par jockey SA Jackson will get the mount and has a 6% winning record for the year.

8.  Catabury  10-1

Catabury has been clocking speeds in the mid to upper 80’s of late.  He did throw in a career best speed of 100 in March going 12 furlongs.  He has a nice breeding line of Tale of the Cat x Mt Livermore x Forty Niner which has caught the eye of 7 different trainers that have owned him over his 23 lifetime races.  Unfortunately he hasn’t lived up to expectations and I don’t see this race being a break through for him.

9.  Grandpa Harlan  8-1

Grandpa Harlan is a scrappy 6 year old who has been in the money just under 50% of the time (21 of 44 races).  His career best speed is 95 which he has hit twice, both times occurring this season.  Grandpa does have a tough time getting to the winner’s circle as he only has 4 wins to date.  And all of those wins were in fields of 6 or fewer.  With that said, it’s hard to see Grandpa pulling one off in this large field, but his speeds seem to be at a career peek, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take some purse money in the 3^rd to 5^th spots.

10.  Real Fruit   8-1

Real Fruit has faced tougher in his career, racing most of his 4 & 5 year old campaign in the non-graded stake level.  In the past year, he has raced 14 times and has a record of 6-4-2.  A nice record but a foot note to be added that two-thirds of these races were fields of 6 or less, but he still came in the money against the larger fields.  His last race concerns me as he posted his lowest career speed of 79 for a dirt track.  This may be a warning sign, but I think this 8-year old still has some kick in him that can be released anytime.

11.  Bubba Joe  11-1

In January, Bubba Joe put in his lowest speed (74) in a dirt race since 2004.  After that race, trainer Thekids sent him off to the farm for a rest.  The results were great when he returned in April finishing second in a speed of 93 for 11 furlongs.  In May, he improved to win with a rating of 98 running 10 furlongs.  He’s been sitting on the sidelines since then and makes his return to the track for this race.  Historically, whenever this 10-year old gets upwards to two months off from the track, he has returned with favorable results.  He may be old, but is still dangerous.

12.    Habanera   30-1

With the steepest odds in the race, Habenera is the youngest entry at three years of age and the only girl running in the race.  Her speeds have gone up from the 60’s level a year ago to around the mid 80’s.  She has a lot of early speed and her best shot is to break away from the field and hope they don’t catch her.  She does look overmatched and I don’t think this gal will fare too well in her second effort against the boys.

13.  Dressed to Thrill  6-1

Two wins in 18 starts isin’t much to write home about.  That is what Dressed to Thrill’s record was in early March.  At the end of March, he started a win streak that has now reached three consecutive races, setting career speed records with each win (89, 93 & 103).   He’s got A. P. Indy in his bloodline and his current form is top notch.  Hard to find much fault in this one who has been very sharp lately.

14.  City King   22-1

City King has seen much better days.  The 7 year old hasn’t put a speed over 90 since last September, which also happens to be the last time he won a race.   Since then, he’s hit the board twice in 15 starts.  City King had a history of hitting speeds in the 90’s or better with reliability but those days seem to be gone now.   I have to take a pass on him and he may be in need of a rest.

Time to make my picks and I’m going with Dressed to Thrill to extend his win streak.  He’s showing the best form currently of the group and must be respected.

Bubba Joe is coming off a mini-layoff and past history has shown that he performs well on his return to the track.  I can’t ignore that.

Do You Mismay gets the third spot as he has been showing respectful speeds of late and also sports good form.