Vermont BB Juvenile Filly – Grade II – $250,000

I’ve got my skis on my shoulder and my stomach is filled with syrup-drenched pancakes, as I attempt to stereotype Vermont as much as possible in one sentence…Oh, yeah, and there is a race too. The grade II Vermont BB Juvenile Filly is the reason we are all here and it should be a dandy. If there is one thing I can say about this race for sure, it is that it is wildly unpredictable. With no runner having more than two previous races, we know little about these fillies and big jumps or dips in form seem likely to occur.

1 – OH HENRY(KY) – winsalot – 8/1

Sire-HENRYTHENAVIGATOR

This filly broke her maiden first time out (67spf) and followed that victory with a 4th place allowance finish (69spf) in her only other race. She will likely be on the pace early, as she went wire-to-wire when breaking her maiden and then led early before fading in the stretch against allowance company. Both previous races were 6F on turf, however, so with the slightly shorter course and new surface, this youngster could finish just about anywhere in this field.

2 – SONG ON THE WIND(KY) – farm304 – 7/2

Sire-STREET SENSE

This impressive daughter of Street Sense, has just one career race. She handled a Louisiana field of six maidens in impressive fashion (75spf), taking the victory in the 6F race with a stalking trip. If she gets the same sort of trip and is able to match or improve her first-race speed figure, she should be right there with the leaders at the finish.

3 – BINISSALEM(JPN) – cadiz – 13/1

Sire-PYRO

She broke her maiden last time out with a solid performance (66spf) at today’s distance of 5.5F. It was a significant improvement over her first career race where she came third, posting a 55 speed figure. It appears she will have to make another such jump to compete favorably with this graded field, so it would be a surprise to see her in the thick of it as they head to the wire.

4 – FLEETWOOD FUNNY(KY) – fleetwood – 7/2

Sire-DISTORTED HUMOR

This filly will likely be charging from the back of a tightly bunched field as they turn for home. In her two cracks versus maiden company, she took a late charging 3rd (72spf) at 5F and a victorious run from off the pace at 5.5F (73spf) last time out. It will be interesting to see how many horses Fleetwood Funny will be forced to pass and whether she will be able to do so against fillies of this quality.

5 –MOGARD CELISE(ITY)– pastrax – 38/1

Sire-MUJAHID

She may be the longest shot in the field, but the buzz around the track is that there is value here. Her first start was an admittedly poor 11th and a 49spf, but that one was on turf and in her second time out on dirt, she took a massive step forward, getting the victory and posting a 70spf at 6.5F. It would still be an upset for this filly to hit the board, but she is more of a player than her long odds might indicate.

6 – THE LOOT IS GONE(KY) – foals2010 – 11/1

Sire-MIDNIGHT LUTE

This filly seems a great value based on the morning line. She is 2-for-2 lifetime, including the GIII Arizona Shoot Out last time out. She has run from a stalking position in both victories and posted respectable winning speed figures of 72 and 71. The two races were at 5F and 4.5F, but it looks like the additional ground will benefit this undefeated gal.

7 – MUCHO GRACIAS(KY) – mrenforcer – 5/1

Sire-INDIAN CHARLIE

So here we have a filly with a win in her debut and a 5th against graded company. Sounds like 5/1 is somewhat reasonable, BUT the speed figures are 65 and 67 (average or below for this field) and the graded 3rd was in the Arizona Shoot Out where she, of course, lost to The Loot Is Gone, who as we just discussed, sits at 11/1. Too much tequila for the odds maker me thinks. Mucho Gracias will have to take a significant step forward to figure in this one.

8 – FOR THE TAKING(KY) – joenova – 7/2

Sire-EDDINGTON

This filly is flashy. She spanked the field in her only previous race, as she broke her maiden in Florida. Her 77 speed figure in the 5F race is the fastest figure of any horse in the race. It was an impressive wire-to-wire performance and she was not coming backwards in the stretch. If she is able to avoid a speed duel in the early going, she may very well be the one to beat in this race.

9 – NOLOOT(KY) – mano – 21/1

Sire-MIDNIGHT LUTE

The second Midnight Lute daughter in the field, she has made both of her career starts here in Vermont. Each time she face allowance company, taking 2nd (68spf) at 5F in her debut and winning last time out with a 67 speed figure at 6F. She will look for a mid-pack run and will have to jump forward in this one to hit the board, but as we’ve been saying, anything is possible with these lightly-raced youngsters.

10 – HARD SECRET(KY) – sportoking – 8/1

Sire-HARD SPUN

Another filly who will need to improve to be a factor. She faded to 5th in her first career race (57spf) at 4.5F and then won from the front with a 68 speed figure at 5F in her second start. If she can show that kind of improvement again, then she becomes a real factor, but sans significant improvement, an early battle for the lead and a late fade seem in the cards.

It should be a fascinating race with every horse’s connections having at least some hope, considering the untested nature of this field. Good luck to all those involved in this graded stake.

My prediction for this wide-open race: 6-8-2