DPCD Winterthur Oaks: The Word Is Unpredictability
DelPenn Champions Day didn’t mean anything to me for my first three years in the Sim. It was for “them”. “They” had the resources, the knowledge, the luck. DPCD was just a day, and more power to “them”. That’s how it was. I wasn’t ungrateful at the day of sponsored championship racing, but it didn’t mean too much to me, because I never seemed to have the good stock that could not just fit into a race, but run well. “They” were who I thought “they” were, and it was what it was.
In 2007, “them” became “us”. I ran Jesus Walks in the Eruption on DPCD on a whim, and came away with my first, my only, Grade I win to date. And it was humbling, because I had struggled in my first three years in the Sim. Some good horses came my way, but nothing that I thought had the chance to show a moment of greatness. I went from a wee dram of jealousy to a whole lotta gratitude within 100 seconds. That’s all it takes, and it happened courtesy of the generosity of DelPenn.
This year, with the reason expansion of the graded racing schedule, more of “us” than ever have a shot at running in the multitude of races that DelPenn placed on the slot for everyone to take their best shot in. Where once I could run maybe one or two, this year I’m running five. And if I can win a DPCD race, it’s certainly a goal for everyone. And this year, there are openings galore for everyone, in all divisions. Maybe someone else will taste their first Grade I, their first million-dollar race win, on one of the many races at three tracks that comprise DelPenn Champions Day.
But with the expanded overall Sim stakes schedule comes the inevitable vacuum. Some fields have not been full ones, and that even had an effect on DPCD entries. A couple of them drew fewer than 10 runners, while this race, the $1,000,000 Grade I DPCD VIII Winterthur Oaks, drew precisely ten starters. There are a number of possible explanations for this, from a seasonal-affective disorder the Sim has seen at Christmastime to duplicate races with high stakes both within and without the DelPenn event, but regardless of the reasoning, a ten-horse field for this Grade I race is a perfectly logical happening. It’s a mile and three-eighths for three-year-old fillies, and though the field might have been hurt by New Yorker winner Corinna’s defection to the Grade I Ladies Stayer against older fillies, her possible rival next year at these distances might just have been uncovered.
In other words, The Word might just be added to the lexicon.
She is untested beyond a mile and a quarter, but she ran the race of her life to get second at 19-1 in the Breeders Bowl Distaff. She owns three graded wins at ten furlongs, but stretches for the first time to eleven furlongs here. But her back class casts a mighty tall shadow over a field which features no other graded winners in it. She’s earned a favorites role, but there are a number of fillies who don’t lack experience at the distance, even if the graded history is missing.
It’s the penultimate week of the racing season, and it’s time to seek out some holiday cheer on one of Sim’s most daring stakes events, DelPenn Champions Day.
S R Wedding [Evil Minister x Verbatim, bred in Indiana and trained by ballylynch for The Big Oil Conglomerate [Ft. LordPye]] is a bargain pedigree with a touch of old-school: back in the day, you could spot Verbatim’s sons and daughters at a claimer near you with some regularity. For this filly, it’s propelled her straight from an entry-level allowance into a Grade I marathon. It’s a gamble, but the filly is 2-for-3 at the distance, including a win in that entry-level NW2L allowance last time out, by almost seven lengths. Familiarity with the route is an important part of being able to step up in class, but her speed figures come up a bit short of world class, with her best speed figure being a 97 in her lone defeat at the distance. The fields she’s been facing have been small, but in her defense, in this division you have to dance with the race options you’re given unless you end up bidding each possible start. So she’s been facing, and running decently, out of her condition. She’s a closer, who should be making a reasonable charge from back in the pack late. The lack of a triple-digit speed figure here hurts, though with the dearth of seasoned foes here it’s rather negligible. With a little more time, she may evolve into a solid threat at these long routes, and she’s already paid back her connection’s investment nicely enough, but even taking into account a Grade I race field without a lot of heavy hitters in it, her climb is still a rather staunch one given her modest achievements.
Elizabeth Swann [Smart Strike x Deputy Minister, bred in Kentucky and trained by spqr for Winterfell Racing] would count as a graded winner in this field, but for one oddball quirk of the expanded schedule. She won the Fast Feline in New York in September, which historically has been a Grade I at nine furlongs in New York, and run in real life as the Gazelle Handicap in New York. In moving the Gazelle to November in New York, it somehow caused the Fast Feline to lose its graded status. A look at the past performances here denies any grading to the race, interestingly. This changes nothing about the assessment for this filly, graceful as a swan this year at middle distances but swinging for the fences here. For the Fast Feline, she earned a figure of 112, which was matched next out by a game performance in the Grade II King Classic at a mile and three-sixteenths. She owns five stakes wins, four of those on dirt, but only one of those dirt stakes victories came against open company. I’m of the opinion that most of the time, the residency stakes races can be tougher than an open race, but the form doesn’t necessarily always follow. The Fast Feline was a good field, as was her race against elders in the King, and this field isn’t quite so hardcore, plus she has a win at a mile and a quarter. So, the catch? The catch is that a mile and a quarter has been the furthest she’s run to date. The pedigree is solid for routers, though I think there are built-in limits here. She’s another closer from near the back of the field, and certainly has the skills in her past to keep up at a high level, and yet her choice of races in recent times are a little questionable in trying to make a case for her here against the favorite. Still, she’s the other 800-lb. gorilla in the field, and class is class. If it comes down to it, her jock has the better numbers on the year on this circuit, and sometimes it’s all in the intangibles.
Ethelferth [Mineshaft x Danzig, bred in Kentucky and trained by belsup for Royal Belgian Kempen Farm] might just be Cinderella. She’s relatively lightly-raced, and marks a stakes debut here, but has bloomed suddenly in her last two starts stretching out to a mile and a half. Though the fields in her last two races, indeed her last several races, have been very small, averaging just over four a race over the last seven starts, the numbers last out are stakes-quality for this division, earning speed figures of 107 and 104 in two victories going long. The wildcard is the layoff. This filly has had four months of hay, oats, water, a defrag, and no activity. The last start was back in August, and it can go both ways: either she’ll relish the extra time and is kicking down the barn door to run, or she’ll come out flat as a pancake. The pedigree is ideal, and she’s got the competitive speed figures that make her a threat to step up here. She’s versatile enough to close or set the pace, but it’s tough to say what she might do here. There’s not a lot of speed to be had, so going to the front and hoping to get lucky is an option, and yet the other speed types are just a little more experienced at it. Ditto the closing kicks, so the happy medium might be to stalk and rate well. Coming off the layoff, though, one should keep hopes high…and expectations lower.
Off The Hinges [Giant’s Causeway x Seattle Slew, bred in Kentucky and trained by mjk07 for Shamrock Stables] has been off the hook in nine starts in the European division. She’s won her last two by over eleven combined lengths, and last time earned a 104 speed figure at a mile and a half. She’s regally bred to run all day, and steps right into a Grade I. She’s a closer, and should need something to close upon, which is uncertain amongst these. Having cleared her allowance conditions through a NW4x, she’s been tested in a brief period of time, but this is the big time. Yet she’s won four of nine starts by a combined 20 lengths, so winning comes very easily for this newcomer. Sometimes, horses are just ready, no matter what level they aspire to, and this one certainly looks like that type, and so she’s a strong threat to run big in her debut in the Western Hemisphere. Her inexperience is a drawback, as is making her American debut under uncertain circumstances, but you honestly can’t go wrong with this kind of blueblood running in her veins, and there’s quite a bit of potential here, not unlike Ethelferth; another star in the making like that one?
County Road [Street Cry-County Zarb, by Unbridled, bred in Kentucky and trained by beach for Beach Stables] has won five of her last six, dating back to her maiden win, and she’s also run up the score in those wins, capturing the five races by a combined 19 lengths. And she’s another who sees dollar signs in a field without a major headliner at the routes. Her figure claim-to-fame was a 104 in an allowance win at a mile and a quarter two back in the slop. But she’s also won at this distance as well as two miles, so she’s certainly versatile. She’s got stalker speed to burn, to be sure, and could be a pace influence, especially if no one opts to take the bull by the horns and control the pace scenario. Still, one can’t get past the 104 speed figure, because it sticks out among a patch of average numbers—94, 81, 98—that seem a bit flat for a contender at this level. She likes the mud, but this track is a fast one, and that can make a difference. By now, you know, even if you’re new at this, that these marathon races, particularly on the female side, do not often draw big fields. She’s faced four straight four-horse fields in a row, and this marks the largest field of foes she’s been involved with since her debut versus winners back in September. It’s not a stretch to suggest she can get a distance only a furlong longer than her best previous start. It’s also not a stretch to suggest that at this point she’s still trying to feel her oats in allowance company, and to see her aim a little higher might be a good thing long term, there’s some doubt about her fast-track abilities at this point. The pedigree is solid for the distance, and there’s some upside in a still-youthful competitor, especially if she can get the lead to herself here, but in the absence of proof that she’s ready to fire her best shot in ideal conditions at a marathon distance, there’s an equal need for caution.
Sommlikeithot [Medaglia D’Oro-Sommelier, by Mineshaft, bred in Kentucky and trained by devineequ2 for Devineequi Stables] and, like the song goes, somm sweat when the heat is on. She’s another stepping up into stakes company for the first time, and coming out of short allowance fields in marathons in doing so. With a win at the distance and a pair of career-best speed figures of 99 in her past, she’s got some abilities in her past that should aid her here, and yet the same nagging question for others applies here, too: what about experience? Her numbers aren’t as strong as some others here, and facing some established foes for the first time without a lot of support coming from her on-track results, she’s at a competitive disadvantage. She does turn back from a fourteen-furlong race that didn’t suit her much, and is a deep threat, the likes of which seem pretty rare in the field, so there’s always the possibility that the conditions are right for an ideal trip. Yet the best numbers in the field overall are hanging in the mid-to-high 100’s, which means she’ll need the race of her life to get to where she’ll need to be to contend. She’ll need a hot pace to help that late kick, and tactically, the odds are a little long on the chances for that to happen here.
Conquering Builder [Arch x Conquistador Cielo, bred in Kentucky and trained by sand133 for Npark Thoroughbred Villas] has stakes experience, and here it’s just not that often that we’ve been seeing a lot of that. What’s more, it’s been positive experiences. She’s won three stakes in a row, at distances ranging from a mile and five-sixteenths to a mile and seven-sixteenths. Most of those runs have come from gate to wire, except for the stakes win two back, in which she trailed by up to four lengths. Call me crazy, but I would think this makes her most likely to have a say in the early speed tactics here. She’s fast on the front end, and able to close as needed, so she’s a multiple threat here. Having been battle-tested by stakes foes, her speed figures of 101 and 102 in her last three starts—sandwiching a 90 two back—look pretty solid, even if they’re still a little behind the curve of the other veterans. The fields here also haven’t been big, but they’ve been pretty decent for three-year-old stakes races. It’s not a division that gets too many headlines, unless you’re Corinna, yet you still have to have the skills to get the distance at a high level. She’s got some skills, clearly, and she just now has to apply them against a couple of graded-caliber opponents and a slew of newcomers with a ton of potential. There’s fillies here that can lead, but only one has a solid history of wanting the lead. This may be it, and though predicting tactics are like herding cats, she’s certainly capable of taking them out. Without a challenge, she could go pretty far here.
The Word [A.P. Indy-Smiling Knight, by Sadler’s Wells, bred in Kentucky and trained by persuader for Given Stables: Fire and Blood] is “talented”. She looms big over this field, coming out of the midsummer classics and winding up almost pulling a stunning upset on the biggest day of racing. She picked up steam rapidly in May, exiting allowance company to take the Grade III Goddess of War on the day of the Middle Jewel. She then went on to win a pair of Grade I races in New York in the summer, the Players Club Oaks and the Birmingham Stakes, before heading to the Breeders Bowl Distaff in November. It was there where she was dismissed at 19-1 in the Distaff, and summarily went on to circle all but the winner of the race from well off the pace. She wasn’t more than seven lengths out of it, but she made a late rally that almost shocked the Breeders Bowl, missing Slave To Ambition by a long head. So…what’s she doing here? She’s never been eleven furlongs before, and can easily blend into a number of other starts on the DPCD card. What she’s doing here is taking a chance. This is the perfect place to take a shot in the dark. She’s got back class to spare, the field lacks a standout, and she’s won at a mile and a quarter, so what’s an extra furlong between friends? Speed figures are as good as Elizabeth Swann’s peaking at a 112 in the Birmingham, and her last speed figure was a 109 for the Distaff, the best last-out number here. She’ll be closing late again, as per usual, and she’s definitely got abilities. About the only things that could displace her here are one of the up-and-comers coming up quick and unpredictably, or Elizabeth Swann stepping up and into the breach late, or maybe even if no major duel on the front end develops. She’s the class of the field by virtue of her graded experience, but she’s not without vulnerability, stretching out like she is here. Still, she’ll be tough in an open slot like this.
Hurtin Gordon [Giacomo-Jack’s Rythem, by Unbridled’s Song, bred in Kentucky and trained by ibanez for Bigrick Stables] is twice graded-stakes placed in her lifetime, but without a smashing success at that level. Third in this spring’s Grade II Miss Bonnie, and third also in last month’s Grade II Rocky Top Oaks, she doesn’t lack experience, but the failures on the big stage of graded levels occasionally outweigh even modest successes. It’s not to say she isn’t talented, it’s only to say that she’s been around the block a couple of times without that smashing success. This might be the best chance in recent weeks, as she turns back from a two-mile jaunt in the Rocky Top Oaks, where she was a soundly beaten third. She’s got some speed, as she led the Birmingham Stakes for a few furlongs before fading to fifth, and she also can come from off the pace as needed, which she may need here. Her speed figures are pretty good, peaking at a 103 back in September in the Grade III Northern Oaks, with a 1002 not far behind from August. She has won at ten and a half furlongs, so an extra sixteenth shouldn’t matter, and the cutback in distance from two miles should give her a boost. This seems to be the right field for her, without many clear standouts to tackle, and her running style is flexible enough to go with the flow. She should find a field like this to her liking, and so her chances hinge on just which tactic she opts here. She’s good enough to run with the best, and she’s overdue for some positive juju.
Tirillas [Seeking The Gold-Mantovas, by Unbridled’s Song, trained by bossross for Rafa Stables] has a win at the distance in allowance company, and was third in the fall in the Grade III Northern Oaks. A stalking type, she’s been able to stick pretty close to the pace of her starts and remain a game foe in recent times. The speed figures are a touch below the main contenders here, but they hold their own in this field. The 103 in the Oaks is the best to date, and she was just beaten a length and a half going a mile and an eighth, so she knows how to stick close to a top-flight cast of characters. She’ll need to step it up a touch here, but she does have a strong allowance win at the distance dating back to May. Her wins have been rather powerful, but her misses can be pretty severe, as the Fast Feline proves (seventh). The distance should be alright for her, and the recent near-misses in the test for class hint that when she finds an optimal distance she should likely be a threat to some of the division’s best. The class angle is good, but the extra ground versus some allowance horses who have been making a solid living doing this with regularity is more of an unknown. At 4, if form holds, she might find things like this to her liking.
The selections:
1. The Word
2. Off The Hinges
3. Elizabeth Swann
4. Hurtin Gordon
Good luck to all, and happy holidays, no matter which holidays you choose to celebrate.