Even field in the GIII Tokyo Sports Stakes

TOKYO — It’s a week after the best horses in the world raced in the Breeders’ Bowl, but there’s still plenty of great racing to be had. Here in Japan, we’re set to host 3-year-olds and up over a dirt mile for the Grade III Tokyo Sports Stakes.

The weather is clear and the bettors are anxious, so here’s a look at the runners who will contest the $750,000 purse, including two top-100 horses in the division:

PP1      K’s Branderburgh(KY)       pygmalion                   K Ledwith                  4/1

Kingmambo x Seattle Slew x Danzig                                     Hispano Parlante

The top-ranked horse in the field (No. 81) and morning line favorite, this son of Kingmambo enters this weekend in possibly the best form of his career. Last time out, K’s Branderburgh ran a 113 speed figure but was barely edged out by a nose, his closing effort coming up short in the listed Lord Jeremy. Prior to that he brought home the listed Bengal Carson going away. He ran a career-high 114 SF in a listed effort back in April, but between then and now has not found success at the graded level. Two Grade IIIs, the Salvatore Mile and Hambone Cup, resulted in ninth- and third-place finishes, respectively. When he wins, K’s Branderburgh dominates the field with his mid-pack close, but can he get over the graded hump here?

PP2      The Jokes On You(KY)        e2912                          I Suzuki                       14/1

Ghostzapper x A.P. Indy x Summer Squall                            Ohio Thoroughbred Racing

Lightly raced as he rounds out his 4-year-old campaign, The Jokes On You has hit the board in 8 out of 10 races. Three of those have been wins, including his last time out, when he posted a career-best 110 SF. The kicker is that every effort has come against allowance company, and conditioned races at that. So there is a lot to prove here for this son of Ghostzapper. The speeds are improving and the pedigree is there, it’s just a matter of whether he has the class to compete at this level. He’ll jump right to the lead and look to run away, leaving it up to the field to catch back up.

PP3      Inside The Lines(IRE)          redturkey                     L Fenner                      8/1

Sadler’s Wells x Roberto x Ribot                                           Great Plains Residency 2009

This redturkey-trained colt began racing as a 3-year-old, and after some quick success had a troublesome stint in some stakes tries. His connections wisely scaled back, and he repaid them by showing them he could compete at the listed level as a 4-year-old. Two runs back, Inside The Lines was given a try on the dirt for the first time, and he took a liking to it. An open allowance win and a convincing victory in the listed Cherry Hill have him building momentum as he comes to Tokyo. This will be a step up in level, but he seems to be finding his stride at the right time, and will look to come through as a deep closer. He has run well at a few distances, so it’s hard to say if the mile is his best or not, although he seems capable.

PP4      Ojai Masked Man(FR)         ojai08                          C Szott                                    22/1

Miesque’s Son-Ojai Vixen, by Kingmambo                           Minnesota Downs

The longshot in the group, Ojai Masked Man broke maiden in his first race as a 2-year-old, and quickly leapt into stakes races. The showings were OK, but not great, and he soon settled into the allowance circuit as a 3-year-old. The result has been a top-two finish in 8 of the last 10 races, but his best effort may have come one race ago with a 107 SF and a ½-length victory in an open allowance. That performance has led the colt’s connection to give him another try at big money, and he’ll go at it here from the back of the field with a stretch close. Might not be a bad money play for the bettors, as he is mostly untested, but many of the other runners are as well.

PP5      Devilish Scheme(KY)            crracers                        A Hudson                   6/1

Devil His Due-Buck The System, by Gone West                   The CR RACERS

The morning line odds setters have certainly given this one a shot, but Devilish Scheme is still looking for his second win of 2009. After opening the year with a victory, he’ll attempt to close the year in similar fashion. But that win was in an nw4l allowance, and he’ll face much tougher here. Since that win, he has run nothing but stakes, showing well but not coming out on top. Speed figures have improved, with a career-best 113 last time out. Devilish Scheme is coming off a two-month layoff heading into the weekend, and he’ll need a rejuvenated effort to overcome his string of second-itis. His only graded attempted was in the Sheba Alley (GIII) back in May, where he finished fourth. It’s hard to say that Devilish Scheme will suddenly get his graded breakthrough here, but he has seemed to settle in to the distance as a stalker and faces a manageable group here.

PP6      Urban Lawman(KY)                        5alive                           D Davis                       6/1

Silver Deputy-Thunder Queen, by Thunder Gulch                Ireland

This 4-year-old chestnut colt will look to make it three in a row as he takes on his first ever graded field. Urban Lawman is coming out of a gate to wire win in the Prill on Oct. 17, and has been in the money more often than not over the last 12 months. This is another horse that seems to be running as well as he ever has, and the distance seems right. His speed figures show he is capable of running a big race, although he’ll still have to run the best race of his life here. The pace of the race does not set up well for Urban Lawman, who’ll have to contend with other speedy frontrunners and avoid getting into a duel.

PP7      The Rock Quarry(KY)         wfstables                     N Tippins                    13/1

Rock Hard Ten-The Champ Is Here, by Coronado’s Quest   GR Simsters

This 4-year-old is as battle-tested as any horse in the field, having run in five graded races. Things looked outstanding for The Rock Quarry when he won he hung on to win the GIII Pea Patch Juvenile as a 2-year-old, but he never took the next step. The rest of his graded efforts been no better than fourth, which came in the San Dimas (GII) in July. He’s coming off a two month break after struggling in the GII Brookline Handicap. The son of Rock Hard Ten has shown flashes of ability, but hasn’t put it together consistently yet. This should be another good test for the handsome chestnut, but he may not pass it. Will tug at the lead from the get go and provide some more speed for this race.

PP8      Gideon’s Trumpet(KY)        floralpark                     G Arnold                     6/1

Awesome Again x Forty Niner x Secretariat                          Northwest Racing Circuit

This finely-bred specimen has had as much success as anyone in the field while earning the division No. 99 ranking. But with 26 races under his belt in a 2-year career thus far, it looks like he might be tuckering out a bit. He seemed to hit his stride this spring, winning three straight races, including the GIII Double Barreled Mile, and topping out at a 116 speed figure. However, since then he has been on the decline, picking up an allowance win in late summer but only pulling out a ninth-place finish last time out in the Save A Buck (GIII). Gideon’s Trumpet has the bloodlines, the talent and the resume — boasting six stakes wins, including three graded — so this will simply come down to stamina. He seems to run best as a mid-pack stalker, so if he can find his groove there, he may challenge.

PP9      Vorreedi(KY)                                    vor                               W Lloyd                      8/1

Bernardini x Danzig x Unbridled                                           GR Simsters

This uniquely-named brown colt hits the track for the omnipresent GR Simsters and trainer Given. That alone should indicate that this horse will be in the mix. But this horse is still trying to find itself, with a Grade III victory on the resume from a year ago, but otherwise inconsistent performances. He has raced at all sorts of distances and at different levels, but hasn’t found much momentum. Vorreedi is coming off a respectable runner-up finish in the listed Bonnie’s States a month ago. There’s a lot here to like, but at least as many question marks — Is this his distance? Is this his level? Can he continue to improve? He’ll look to provide answers by shadowing the pace from a couple of lengths back.

PP10    Winter Is Coming(KY)         sunshine34                  C Roser                       6/1

More Than Read-Broad Project, by Broad Brush                  GR Simsters

Another GR Simsters entrant, Winter Is Coming has won 11 races in his career, including last time out against open allowance company. Always competitive, the 5-year-old still hasn’t broken the graded glass ceiling, instead settling for a few listed wins. His most impressive performance came in June’s listed Carby’s King Special, running a 116 SF over a sloppy track to run ahead of the pack. Winter Is Coming still hasn’t proven graded ability, but there’s little doubt he will make his presence felt and, at worst, finish respectably. He’ll provide more pace in the field, which could cost him in this group.

PP11    Irrational Demand(KY)       astinator8                    B Van Houten             8/1

Storm Cat-A.P Geisha, by A.P. Indy                                     EAAA Racing

With the blueblood that this 4-year-old colt boasts, you know his connections are looking for big returns. His trainer actually claimed him in January, making him unique amongst a group of one-trainer horses. Since moving to the astinator barn, Irrational Demand has shown improvement, finishing in the money eight out of nine times, with four wins. But it was only one race ago that he was moved up against stakes competition, and that was his one troublesome run. The colt finished eighth and fading in the GIII Save A Buck in October, and his connections will hope he learned from that run. The speed figures are there (career-best 118) and he seems fully capable at this distance. This could prove to be a breakout race, with his last, fading effort coming at 8.5 furlongs. He’ll be a tight stalker, right behind the pace.

The morning line spreads the money around here, and there’s a reason for that — there’s a lot of capable horses, but none that are dominating. All have questions to answer, mostly in the consistency department. That makes it hard to handicap the field, knowing that it could click for any runner at any time.

I think what it will really come down to is pace. This field boasts a ton of speed, and things certainly seem to set up perfectly for a closer. In this field, that means K’s Branderburgh, Inside The Lines, Ojai Masked Man and to a lesser extent Devilish Scheme and Gideon’s Trumpet. I’ll set my allegiances with Inside The Lines, who seems to be gaining momentum and running well. I’ll throw in K’s Branderburgh for the exacta and Devilish Scheme finishing third and The Jokes On You in fourth. Watch for Ojai Masked Man as a sleeper.

Enjoy the race!