10th edition of the Mistaken Soda Identity
| This weekend’s running of the Mistaken Soda Identity will be it’s 10th edition. The winners 3 of the last 4 years have gone on to run in Bluegrass Oaks or Breeder’s Bowl races, so stakes are high. There is no “Mistaken”, the winner this weekend could form a real “Identity” in the sim.
Let’s get on to the field… |
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| PP #1 – REALMS OF FEAR(KY) | Owner: sdmf2 |
| Odds: 8-1 | (VALUE PLUS x GHOSTZAPPER x SAINT BALLADO) |
| Div Rank: 63 | Career: 6-3-1-1 $92,520 |
| Comments: Tied for highest last race SP (89), which was also a career high. Only “bad” race was 3 back in a 6f sprint in which she wasn’t able to set the tone early. All 3 wins have come from the front end. Moves inside the #7 hole for first time in career. |
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| PP #2 – OILILY JAYCEE(ENG) | Owner: zeco9 |
| Odds: 9-1 | (MEDICEAN (GB) x DEPUTY MINISTER x RAISE A NATIVE) |
| Div Rank: 295 | Career: 7-3-1-1 $56,180 |
| Comments: Tied with #1 Realms of Fear as best last race SP (89). Has seen the SP go up each of the past 5 races. Horse was running overseas to begin it’s career, but has since moved to the mainland America. First chance at 2-turns today, and running style shows it should like the added ground. |
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| PP #3 – RUN AND SLEW ME(KY) | Owner: urcstables |
| Odds: 23-1 | (RUN AWAY AND HIDE x COASTAL x SEATTLE SLEW) |
| Div Rank: 202 | Career: 4-2-1-0 $25,565 |
| Comments: Winner of two straight after a near miss (head) loss at 8f. That loss came at this same Arizona track. Most recent win had this filly continuing to add distance between herself and second place, which is a good sign when adding the extra 1/2f here. |
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| PP #4 – TIZKAUF(KY) | Owner: kauffmac3 |
| Odds: 9-1 | (TIZ WONDERFUL x DEHERE x MR. PROSPECTOR) |
| Div Rank: 38 | Career: 6-2-1-1 $87,310 |
| Comments: Most recent graded stakes race was not be kind to this filly finishing a lackluster 6th and also a 9 point drop in SP. Filly does own a race-high 90 SP after a strong closing performance two races back. Was last race a fluke or was it a sign of an early peak? |
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| PP #5 – FOREST FIRES T(FR) | Owner: tek218 |
| Odds: 5-1 | (WALK IN THE PARK (IRE) x FORESTRY x SAINT BALLADO) |
| Div Rank: 11 | Career: 6-4-0-1 $226,300 |
| Comments: Morning-line favorite gets the services of top jock W. Kewmwa. Filly has run in four straight G2’s, winning two of them, both at 6.5f. Questionmark here is the added distance. The last two losses were after some distance was added and she was fading. So does adding an additional 1.5f’s help her? Playing off her father, this favorite might not have an easy ‘Walk in the Park’. |
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| PP #6 – IRISH ROOKIE(KY) | Owner: claim2fame |
| Odds: 15-1 | (SUN KING x TIZNOW x DEPUTY MINISTER) |
| Div Rank: 111 | Career: 6-2-1-0 $42,505 |
| Comments: Took a big step last out moving into a G2 after a tight NW2L race two back. Clearly the filly did not respond finishing 10th of 10. But she returns to what appears a more suitable distance. |
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| PP #7 – NOTABLE JAB(KY) | Owner: lordbear3 |
| Odds: 9-1 | (CURLIN x NOVERRE (IRE) x SEEKING THE GOLD) |
| Div Rank: 262 | Career: 6-1-4-0 $73,780 |
| Comments: This filly never finished worse than second until her latest forray into a G1 off an NW2L second place finish. She was overmatched here, but was passing tired horses towards the end, possibly showing that yet more distance might be to her liking. Fillies best running has been while staying in contact with the leaders. Maybe trainer lordbear3 will try to revert back to that style this weekend. |
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| PP #8 – TAYLOR’S STORY(KY) | Owner: deyoto3 |
| Odds: 6-1 | (DISTORTED HUMOR x HENNESSY x PRIVATE ACCOUNT) |
| Div Rank: 126 | Career: 4-3-0-0 $112,580 |
| Comments: Morning-line second favorite coming off a second place 1/2 length loss in the G1 Walnut Tree. One of two horses to have already gone today’s distance. While this filly has not posted an SP above 83 like some of her counterparts, it appears she could be sitting on a big one today. Running style fits perfect for the added distances. |
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| PP #9 – JERSEY KATE(KY) | Owner: latekick2 |
| Odds: 11-1 | (BERNARDINI x SUNDAY SILENCE x RAISE A NATIVE) |
| Div Rank: 279 | Career: 5-1-1-2 $50,286 |
| Comments: One-time race winner has the bloodlines to run, but hasn’t had that signature performance to show she is ready to explode. Comes into today’s G3 off a second place in NW2L. |
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| PP #10 – WESTERLY BREEZE(KY) | Owner: cozman19 |
| Odds: 11-1 | (STREET CRY (IRE) x SAKHEE x GONE WEST) |
| Div Rank: 127 | Career: 3-2-0-0 $67,620 |
| Comments: Lighest raced filly in the race comes off a nice NW2L win. Ran in G3 two back and appeared to not care for the off-track but still finished a semi-interested 5th place. Biggest last race SP jump in the field tells us that either she peaked a bit early or the best is yet to come. |
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| PP #11 – AIRBRUSHED(KY) | Owner: munson |
| Odds: 9-1 | (SKY MESA x BROAD BRUSH x SPECTACULAR BID) |
| Div Rank: 86 | Career: 8-4-0-1 $61,960 |
| Comments: One of the veteran’s in the race today with 8 races under the belt. Really perked up with the added distance three races back, winning two of those. SP’s have been consistent in those races and are on par with most in this field. The major concern here is the speed. Does she have enough? |
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| PP #12 – BROKEN KEY(KY) | Owner: putter |
| Odds: 10-1 | (BROKEN VOW x ROBERTO x KEY TO THE MINT) |
| Div Rank: 45 | Career: 6-2-0-1 $64,980 |
| Comments: Took 5 races before going two-turns for the first time in last out, but it showed positive results as the filly posted here best SP by far. The filly is definitely battle tested having a pair of G2’s and G3’s. Filly looks to get out front and go a far as she possibly can. |
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| PP #13 – SOME PARTY(LA) | Owner: isittrue |
| Odds: 26-1 | (ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ x BLACK TIE AFFAIR(IRE) x EXCLUSIVE RIBOT) |
| Div Rank: 281 | Career: 5-2-1-1 $47,988 |
| Comments: ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ…oh sorry, nodded off there for a minute. Fillies dad has arguably the best name in the race but filly has yet to run two-turns. Did show some life last out posting a career-high SP. Unfortunately, the overall SP’s show the filly needs to wake up. |
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| PP #14 – GRAND MOM(KY) | Owner: graywolf8 |
| Odds: 13-1 | (SUAVE x GRAND SLAM x DIXIELAND BAND) |
| Div Rank: 24 | Career: 9-3-0-2 $92,804 |
| Comments: This ‘Grand’ filly is the “Grandma” of the race having run a race-high 9 races. Winner of three races with most recent coming at 8f. G2 two races back was also a nice effort. Another of those “catch me if you can” fillies, but has shown the strength to go all the way at a distance. |
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| Sledge’s Analysis: The thing I am looking for here is the horse who has not peaked prior to this race. The filly needs to be running on the upscale, but hasn’t quite showed everything. That horse for me is Taylor’s Story. You ask yourself…”She’s won 3 of 4 races, how can she not have shown everything?” True, she has won 3 of 4 races, but her SP’s haven’t had that huge bump up that shows up when a horse finally hit it’s stride. Those types of races are usually followed by a leveling out or a “bounce” (negative drop) of the SP. A prime example of the “bounce” is Tizkauf, while a “leveling out” effect has been shown by morning-line fav Forest Fires T were she had that big-time jump in SP, then the next race she drops 9 points. Horses that fall into the category of horses who peaked and are due for a level-ing off or bounce are Realms Of Fear, Oilily Jaycee, Jersey Kate, Westerly Breeze and Broken Key. Does this mean any of those horses can’t win this race, certainly not. But i’m looking at the trends. To round out the exacta and triple, i’m looking at Forest Fires T to hang on for second, while closers Tizkauf and Notable Jab fight it out for third. Longshot Alert: Westerly Breeze Good luck to everyone!! |
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