Louisiana Oaks

Grade II
A mile and one sixteenth
Sloppy Dirt
$400,000
Fillies and mares, 3 years old

Welcome racing fans to soggy Louisiana. It has rained cats and dogs and now we have horses, oh my. As if we were not testing these young lasses enough with just the competition, Mother Nature decided to throw in her own wrinkle. Normally they charge extra to see pretty young girls romp around in the mud, but there is no additional cover charge here at the track. Who said going to the track was not bargain entertainment?

 The rain allowed most of the trainers down here to try and hide beneath their umbrellas and duck me. I managed to catch up with a few of them though. Qwikvett who is never publicity shy said that his long shot filly would love the off going.  As we chatted we both found ourselves far more interested in looking at who Balata had brought with him than talking about his his horse. Actually I am not sure if Vett did talk more. I was too busy gawking to listen either to his or Balata’s ramblings. Our favorite Canadian golfer was walking around, carrying his putter, accompanied by a ravishing Aussie. The 6 foot tall beauty, I later learned was his filly’s name sake Elle Macpherson. Elle told me she wearing El Prada, not El Prado. I asked her to stick to modeling and leave the jokes to me. Still in a semi-daze I accidentally interrupted the Paz’s prayer. Needless to say when I asked about their pair of horses I only got glares. Gowand5 only wanted to discuss the Jets free agency moves (nice signings by the way). I gotta Goomba quote but can’t repeat it or he would have to kill me. So after wasting the rest of the day in the bar reminiscing about Sports Illustrated swimsuit issues gone by, I realized I would not have a lot to go on other than my own underwhelming handicapping skills. Hmmmm maybe I will just cut and paste Kaif’s universal horse commentaries. Think anyone would notice?

THE FIELD

1 IT NEVER WORKS(KY) TR goomba1 JKY Bo Ryan ML 9/1

Well it did this time… Work that is… Goomba1’s copycat breed of the last Kentucky Derby winner may have netted him a Kentucky Oaks filly. Who says there is no such thing as sim nicks? We know she is fast but will the speed carry for today’s race distance? She tired a bit at the end of her last graded try before coming back with a superior sprint effort in her last. She will be near the lead as long as she lasts, which may just be the wire. First time in the slop.

2 STAKE YOUR CLAIM(IRE) TR qwikvett1 JKY D Hogin ML 17/1

The Giant killer shows up with his slingshot at yet another graded event. You always have to beware of the ‘vett when he is morning line double digits. This time I think he may have bitten off more than his horse can chew. The spf’s don’t match up with the best in this race and earlier tries at this level have not been good. She is cutting back to a distance she seems to like better and she hit the board closing in her only slop run.

3 INSOME GOLD(KY) TR tenpin8 JKY F Oxon ML 5/1

Simple math- Great trainer + top jockey + Eclipse nominated 2 year old = Big chance. This young lady has done everything asked of her and more while finishing in the money in each of her 8 starts. A new question mark is raised however, how will she handle the slop?  Her mother never saw a wet track so the mystery will be revealed on Saturday. She likely will set the fractions and avoid having too much mud kicked up at her. The one to beat.

4 DRU(KY) TR axemjack86 JKY D Coleman ML 8/1

After a slow start to her career in stakes level sprints, Dru has begun to make a habit of having her picture taken at the end of the race. She comes in off 3 straight scores in mile races and stretches out a bit here. She has the same style as the favorite so pace will be a big factor. Never run on an off track before and makes her debut at the graded level. If she gets a trip she likes she could make it 4 in a row.

5 LA GALERNA(KY) TR galicia JKY B Moore ML 9/1

La Galerna owns to huge wins in the slop and has to be moved up the list as a result. Her two efforts at this level on dry surfaces have left a lot to be desired. She looks to have a style perfectly suited for this race, she should track the leaders and try one big move at the third call. If B. Moore flips the switch and gets ignition La Galerna may break her graded maiden.

6 ARAGORN’S PRAYER(KY) TR pazfour JKY P Sullivan ML 8/1

After a moment of silence apologizing for my transgression at the Prayer meeting, I noticed that Aragorn’s Prayer was lacking a bit in the high end speed results. She also has never been across a wet strip. Her best lifetime effort came at the race distance in a graded event so she may be “the rise to the occasion type”. Her closing style also could be a real asset with the pace looking like it might be steamy.

7 SAKI TO ME(KY) TR jgaudet JKY RJ Rehberger ML 34/1

Saki to Me may just have her wish granted and her opponents may well “sock it to her”. Jgaudet hopes her experience on turf is useful in the wet going down here. She may need a bit more than just taking to the off track… She needs a lot of things to go right for her and a lot to go wrong for some others. Who knows what a big step forward might bring.

8 TONS OF HONOR(KY) TR gowand5 JKY Ma Scott ML 13/1

Talk about team loyalty… Gowand5 has brought in a relative of Bart Scott, the latest Jet savior, to ride his fine filly today. Fittingly this one has shown some talent in “the swamp” like conditions. Not sure she fits speed wise, here without a big forward step. She has not shown she is able to handle this level of foes either. She is still eligible for NW2x which does put her in higher conditions than her NFL team counterpart.

9 CK ZABRIO(NZ) TR ckstables3 JKY T Campy ML 9/1

If you focus on the effort in the Miss Minny, and at this distance she could be a favorite. She is super talented having already secured stakes wins on both surfaces and turning in one of the fastest efforts of any 2 year old in the sim. Zabeel  x Darby Creek Road x Con Brio does not sound like a La. Oaks champion’s pedigree, but it very well might wind up being it. If her turf ability translates to the mud here, she might just win this thing.

10 ELLE PRADO(KY) TR callaway JKY M Bailey ML 9/1

I am going to name my next horse Eva Mendes and see if she wants to come to races with me. Man that Balata character is sharp. Not only does he get a super model to tag along with him, he also got the rain that seems to make his filly super too. She stretches out and faces tougher, but if Elle MacPherson was rooting for me to score I would be inspired. Lets see if her special fan and a hot pace brings out the best in Elle Prado too.

11 K’S NEC PLUS ULTRA(KY) TR kasavage JKY O Euler ML 14/1

This one is named after some wacky Russian band that was very hard to listen to with a hangover. It felt like this Filly was running and my ears were her front shoes. She tasted defeat for the first time in her career last time out despite a career best effort speed wise. She has never been over an off strip but she has tackled ever first in her career with great skill. She will need to step up quite a bit, but has showed signs of willingness to do just that.

12 SNOW ANGELS(KY) TR topicount4 JKY R Romero ML 19/1

If we got snow instead of rain then this one would have been named to win, but alas it is mud we are running on not powder. She comes into this race off a maiden score and is sired by Dynaformer, whose foals rarely like off going. Perhaps the wily trainer knows a bit more than we do, but I think it will have to be more than a bit to get a win here.

13 TURN TO STONE(KY) TR checkmate2 JKY C Morris ML 10/1

If she follows her pattern of second. win, second, win, then she is due for a win here. Turn to Stone will have to avoid being melted up front by what is certain to be a rock solid pace on the front end. She has been improving in each start and perhaps with a step forward here she can emerge a star. She will have to overcome this being her first trip on a wet strip and her first taste of graded competition to do so.

14 STREETSMART PRAYER(KY) TR pazthree JKY D Joines ML 7/1

The wiser albeit Street Smarter of the two prayers in the race is Streetsmart Prayer. Not only a bit savvier than her barn mate, but also a bit more talented so far. Her deep closing style and triple figure speed number in her last make her very appealing in this race. The downside is she has not won since November and has never made one of her big finishes over a sloppy track. If she handles the surface and gets a great trip she could be a prayer answered.

ANALYSIS

Past performance wise you have to love Insome Gold, but picking the favorite is almost against the rules so I will just keep her in the trifecta. I am going to put Streetsmart Prayer and Elle Prado in there with her and look to cash a big wet ticket. Good luck to all, I am off to pick up Elle MacPherson from the hotel as it seems Balata met someone younger and ditched her there.