Premier Oak Lee GII Promises to be a Good One!
The Oak Lee Plate Stakes
Grade II
Five and one half furlongs on the Firm Turf Course
$300,000
All horses, 3 years old and upStakes record – Premier Race
This is the time of year where some of those older turf horse change their colors. That is to say that some of those three and four year olds seem to find new found speed that they never showed before and become long time turf monsters. We may be looking at horses that are fairly dominant for a year to come on the grass. There are several horses here that look like they could be on the cusp of that or will just kind of fade away. It should make for a great race and lively conversation afterward so let’s take a look:
1 – ETHICS PARADOX(KY) ODDS STABLE WIN% JOCKEY WIN% TOP SPEED EARNINGS RANK Super Stables 6/1 GradeTwo 17.5% N.Hartel 54 – 4 – 6 – 6 – 7% 111.24 $ 364,696 34
( GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x GULCH x SEATTLE SLEW out of STORM THE SEAS) It’s not often that you find a horse that runs equally well on the fast and firm and in the mud as well but this four year old colt ran a swift 109 SPF last time out after doing the same in the race previous. He came in second in both of those races for trainer GradeTwo and the Super Stables and he has hit the board in 11 of his 17 races on the grass. He likes to come from the way back and the inside post won’t help much there as will the early season record of jockey Hartel who is barely making a blip on the win recorder. This colt should be in the mix at the end but he has a few things against him.
 | 2 – ARTICULATOR(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro’s Racing Empire | 4/1 | Turbo1 | 15.4% | D.Evans | 116 – 41 – 24 – 12 – 35% | 114.06 | $ 467,195 | 19 |
( MORE THAN READY x CURE THE BLUES x GREEN FOREST) In 25 races on the grass this five year old saved his best race for last time out with a sizzling 114 SPF and an easy win in the NIGHT HANDLER Stakes race. He is looking for that elusive 10th win and looks poised to compete for it here. Trainer Turbol has brought him along nicely and he looks better than ever right now. He is a stalker that should benefit from both this post and having jockey Evans in the leather who has been red hot this year. This guy might be tough to beat here and let him gather his second Graded win.
 | 3 – SCAT AWAY(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LadySierra Stables | 99/1 | LadySierra | 11.7% | C.Crockett | 15 – 3 – 0 – 1 – 20% | 89.72 | $ 135,060 | 27 |
(SCAT DADDY x A.P. INDY x CARR DE NASKRA out of A.P.BABY) This three year old is trying to make the big step up to the older Graded circuit and he is going to have to jump way outside his comfort zone to compete here. His fastest speed so far is under a 90 SPF and trainer LadySierra will try to get him some experience here although it is hard to imagine that he is ready to compete against this field. It’s always tough with these three year olds to decide when it is beneficial to run against the older crowd. He has Crockett on board and he has three wins in only 15 outings this year so should be good for the youngster. I just don’t think he can make the jump to this level yet though.
 | 4 – LEGENDARY HEART(IRE) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nickesyd Racing Club | 58/1 | Claim4Fame | 9.5% | J.Garcia | 11 – 1 – 0 – 0 – 9% | 99.64 | $ 22,035 | N/A |
( MONTJEU (IRE) x FAPPIANO x MILL REEF) Interesting to see a four year old colt with only seven races under his belt. He has two wins and two seconds but will be looking for his first triple digit SPF and will be in his first Stakes race of any kind. He was running maiden claimers just four races back and it is hard to imagine a scenario where he could win here. He has Garcia holding the reins with only one win this year and he probably won’t find that second one here. A nice horse but possibly a bit out classed in this race.
 | 5 – BASESTEALER(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Given Stables | 26/1 | Yunkai | 22.2% | A.Snappa | 39 – 5 – 2 – 3 – 13% | 109.60 | $ 388,936 | 45 |
( DISTORTED HUMOR x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x PEINTRE CELEBRE (IRE) out of BRANDON’S GIFT) This nicely bred four year old has been kind of up and down for trainer Yunkai and the Given Stables. He seems to have a nice streak then throw in an uninspired race or two. His last couple haven’t been much to write home about so it may be time for solid outing. He likes to stalk the leaders and the five hold might help him there. He has a solid jockey in the irons in Snappa and could surprise a few folks here. He is still rather lightly raced and could break out at any time.
 | 6 – MAXIMUM DENSITY(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Bonus Racing | 15/1 | Aces1211 | 15.9% | P.Spratt | 19 – 4 – 2 – 4 – 21% | 107.95 | $ 140,669 | 364 |
( GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x SEEKING THE GOLD x DEPUTY MINISTER out of MAXIMUM EXPOSURE) After seven months without a win, this five year old big chestnut beauty ran off a couple of nice wins in a row in allowance races and trainer Aces1211 decided to move him up to see if he can do some damage against the big boys. He is going to have to put forth his best effort as he hasn’t shown the kind of speed yet to compete here. Jockey Spratt is a good one and will push him to his best but it will have to be better than before to get in the mix.
| 7 – DEAD WORLD(IRE) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Danby Road Connection | 13/1 | ICBomber3 | 33.0% | I.Pegram | 11 – 1 – 2 – 3 – 9% | 109.95 | $ 191,408 | 124 |
( DANEHILL DANCER (IRE) x SPINNING WORLD x THUNDER GULCH out of STRANGE WORLD) This four year old had a nice streak of triple digit SPFs go by the wayside in his outing on an off track last time out. He still won the race though and is looking rather tough with 11 0f 12 on the board and two straight Stakes wins. Trainer ICBomber3 thinks this colt is ready to move up to the Graded level and I’m not one to argue. Pegram is holding the reins and has been a bit spotty this year but colt seems to have a mind of his own and should be an easy ride if he can get to the front where he likes it. Could surprise a few folks here.
 | 8 – DRUNKEN LULLABIES(IRE) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sipe Stables | 6/1 | Blinkers | 18.4% | B.Couzens | 32 – 6 – 3 – 4 – 19% | 111.81 | $ 1,532,045 | 20 |
( DAYLAMI (IRE) x BLUSHING JOHN x SEATTLE SLEW out of RIGIDLY WITHIN SEA) This beautiful seven year old charcoal colored horse has been amazingly consistent over his career including a couple of Breeders Bowl runs. He doesn’t seem to be slowing down much but he’s been getting some long layoffs from trainer Blinkers. He looks capable of putting up a big number although he had a draining outing last time with a 110 SPF win in the muck in a G2. He really likes this distance though and has Couzens holding the reins and he is a good one. If he bounces nicely he should be in the mix at the end.
 | 9 – DANE’S FOLLY(IRE) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BigKev and BJBandit Farms | 5/1 | Rapier | 13.7% | R.Bailey | 103 – 8 – 16 – 16 – 8% | 115.72 | $ 631,024 | 24 |
( THEATRICAL(IRE) x DANEHILL x MACHIAVELLIAN) Before an off race on an off track last time out, this six year old brown horse had quite a series of races going. He ran 13 straight firm track triple digit SPFs and finished on the board in all but one of those races. That is consistent with a capitaly C and trainer Rapier has been keeping him razor sharp. With no rain at all in the forecast, and a nice family tree to build on, this guy should be right there in the stretch run. He likes the front and there isn’t a bunch of speed in this race which should work well for him. Jockey Bailey is in the leather and has been a little off this year but should be able to guide this fellow to the top of the field.
 | 10 – NOFEARRE(IRE) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GateToWire Stables | 9/1 | Bulletday9 | 19.0% | B.Stephen | 7 – 0 – 1 – 2 – 0% | 114.12 | $ 251,420 | 112 |
( NOVERRE (IRE) x A.P. INDY x IN REALITY out of MANILLA PAIN) Trainer Bulletday9 was praying for rain here as his seven year old chestnut horse likes an off track best. He should put in a solid effort either way but will be hard pressed to get to the front with this crowd. To make it worse, jockey Stephen is in the saddle and hasn’t even sniffed the winner’s circle this year. They will be doing a rain dance before the race but unless those clouds part and bring a downpour, I’m afraid that this guy will have a hard time finishing on the board.
 | 11 – REZURRECTION(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tees Stables | 13/1 | Dog | 17.3% | G.Adler | 18 – 4 – 3 – 0 – 22% | 108.88 | $ 266,617 | 48 |
( DAYJUR x STORM CAT x SEPTIEME CIEL out of YOUR TIES) There is still time for this four year old colt to improve but not enough time before this race. He seems to be fine until he runs in Graded company where his best finish was a seventh place. Trainer Dog has brought him along nicely but he looks like another seventh may be his best in this crowd. Jockey Adler will try to turn that around and he has been really hot this year but I’m afraid it is too much to ask at this stage of this career for this horse.
 | 12 – DOCTOR G | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| River Ridge Farms | 14/1 | Kauffmac | 6.4% | S.Perkins | 9 – 0 – 0 – 1 – 0% | 114.36 | $ 753,805 | 179 |
( GRAND SLAM x AFFIRMED x TOM FOOL) This six year old horse has had some solid times and some big wins but unfortunately they were all on the dirt and this will be only the third outing on the grass for the big brown horse. His turf runs weren’t bad but they were too few and far between to get a real read on what he can do here. Trainer Kauffmac is really going out on a limb but since winning two Grade ones in a row last fall, this horse has really fallen on hard times. He has Perkins in the leather but he has had some hard times this year as well. There is a possibility that this horse could come from nowhere and throw a big race but it’s too hard to predict.
 | 13 – SCIENTIFIC PROOF(IRE) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dixiedotco Racing | 9/1 | Brightvalr | 19.5% | J.Kohlmorgen | 82 – 13 – 8 – 13 – 16% | 107.30 | $ 513,318 | 22 |
( GALILEO (IRE) x SEEKING THE GOLD x DANZIG out of SEEKING SECURITY) This nice looking four year old is bred for the grass and has been tremendously consistent but with only one Stakes win to show for it. I think that there are still really big things on the turf going to happen with this guy and it could happen at any time this year. Brightvalr is part of the Dixiedotco Racing stables, which are one of the best in the business and should get this pony just right. Kohlmorgen is in the irons and is real solid so should help this closer shine through at the end. He just needs to bump his SPF a bit to really start hitting these Graded races.
 | 14 – SATRUS(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafa Stables | 8/1 | Bagur | 15.6% | B.Smith | 8 – 0 – 1 – 2 – 0% | 114.37 | $ 678,392 | 18 |
( WAR CHANT x FORTY NINER x SADLER’S WELLS out of SATRUSTEGUI) Since two Graded wins last summer and fall, this five year old chestnut horse has been a bit up and down. Trainer Bagur has moved him around some in regards to distances and class but he has just been a bit off. He might need a layoff or he might throw a big number here that tosses it all out the window. That’s what makes the racing game fun. Jockey Smith is holding the reins and is still looking for his first win of 2009 which doesn’t bode well for this team. The fact that he has the outside post shouldn’t bother them though as he loves to come from way back. Tough to tell here.
Morning Line = 2-9-1-8-14
Paz Picks = 2-1-8-5-7
There are a lot more questions than answers here but some of them may find out what they need to know at the finish of this race. I like BASESTEALER to finish fourth. He has had a roller coaster ride the past few months but I think he may be on the upswing. If DRUNKEN LULLABIES can come back from that last big outing, I think he has enough to finish in the top three. That leaves me with the two horses closest to the rail for the win and I think that ETHICS PARADOX could definitely challenge for the win here but it looks like ARTICULATOR by far has the better jockey and that should be enough to help him get the win.
Good luck to all runners!
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