The ESR Ladies Day Challenge – Time for Girl Talk

We’re back with Week 2 of the contest!  It’s the same format as last week except that these 4 heats are restricted to fillies, all first-time starters. 

Last week’s boys races were chock full of blue-bloods which appeared as yellow “capper” ratings – a total of 51 of the 58 juveniles earned that distinction from the CPU.  This week boasts the usual murderer’s row of top Kentucky stallions, but a few more trainers are taking shots with less regally-bred babies.  And like I’ve been saying, what matters now is how fast the horse is NOW, not what it will do next May.

As we approach the entries deadline it looks like we’re going to have 61 entrants across the four fields (Group A through D), so one lucky heat will get that wildcard 16^th competitor taking a single shot at dethroning Kingab and Trotter and friends… if only until the next race.

(Cut and paste from the last article – because why not?) Instead of giving a full prognostic rundown – how could I do that with ALL first-time starters? – we’ll just compile some interesting observations and talk about notables or intriguing pedigrees in the field.

I’ll try to sprinkle in some compliments and insults, that part is new!

Heat A

Runners    –  16

“Yellows” –  13

Common Sires –  Curlin(2), Into Mischief (2)

Let’s just cut to the chase with both the sire power and the trainer power coming from Kingab’s #2 PICOLLO DISPETTO, who couldn’t be more intimidating.  He sports the powerful parentage combo of Into Mischief and MISS VINOTINTO (Giant’s Causeway x Americain), the latter being the winner of the 2020 G1 Superfilly Handicap.  She in turn is the only foal (1 of 1 collector’s item) from he-mared RUCIO MORO (Mr. Prospector damsire), who won the G1 Japan Cup and the G1 Barry Foster.  Madone!

One of those three “non-yellow” types caught my eye as one to watch, and that’s Valesa’s #3 CALL OF BEAUTY, who is a juicy 27-1.  He’s by NY stallion Solomini (Curlin x Storm Cat)  so perhaps there are other ESR New York bred races in mind, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a good effort in open company.  The dam SHE WALKSIN BEAUTY (Distorted Humor x Seattle Slew)  won a G3 race at two, mixed it up with some good ones while G1 placed, and went on to produce 4 stakes-placed runners from her 4 foals to race.  Solomini has sired three G2 winners, and their breeders were Valesa, Trotter, and Kingab.  Naturally.

Another sleeper could be #14 STG GREYADINI from the Ace contingent.  Two of her other Seize The Grey colts were rapid pacesetters in the boys’ version of these races, and this one was he-mared from single race winner LUKADINI (Bernardini x War Front).    That one race, though, was a monster 88 Speed Figure earned in his first start at today’s 8 furlongs on dirt.  He even matches on the calendar (September 3^rd was his winning debut). 

Beisbol (me) shows up with an “A” horse for Group A by virtue of 7-1 favorite #8 DODGER BEISBOL, one of the two Curlin colts in the race (CURLINUPFORWINTER is the other, slightly more obvious.)  ‘DB’ the horse is a very expensive scratch bred using Storm Cat and A. P. Indy at the back end slots, which means this is not a Beisbol bred.  He was a surprise gift from a much more successful, anonymous trainer who is DEFINITELY not a Padres fan!

Heat B

Runners    –     15

“Yellows” –     11

Common Sires – Tapit(2), Gun Runner(2)

So far I’ve been offering capsules on a handful of horses each race, and always including one about the morning line favorite.   But what do you do in this race where there are FOUR 7-1 shots?   You skip them, that’s what!

It really is a deep field (don’t be surprised) but I was taken aback at seeing 15-1 next to a Tapit filly, Lbailey’s #4 TAPPIN THAT LEMON.  She’s He-mared from the fast Lemon Drop Kid x Dehere stakes winner BERNIE LOVES LEMON, who did not win a single race at two… but also did not race at 2!  He was a first out winner in May of his 3yo year, which is what you can do with a scratch bred of this quality.  My point- I see literally untapped potential in this family tree.

#7 SWEET THUNDER is another one that looks not quite like the others – she is a Candy Ride x Bernardini x More Than Ready scratch bred.  Trainer Sremel just recently won the G1 Hopeless Stakes (2yo 7f) so we know the ability to develop a good youngster is there, but the wrinkle here is that SWEET THUNDER was bred by ‘etestcase’.   I’m thinking maybe this was some sort of Twitch prize with a crowd sourced sire combo?  In any event the 2.00 Dosage Index and 0.50 Center of Distribution scores align with the anecdotal impressions that this horse should be speedy at the distance.

I’m rolling into Heat B with another gift horse, this time a bigger price at 21-1 with #13 CAITLYN KIRAMMAN.  Valesa was kind enough to offer one of her surplus breedings, which is a sleek-looking Constitution out of a very fast Speightstown x Mission Impazzible he-mare (WHY THE MISSION).  I was already optimistic about my chances, but when told that WHY THE MISSION had been bred and given to Valesa by Kingab, well, it seemed like a positive omen.  A wise man once said “To be the man, you’ve gotta beat the man” so in this case I am hoping Kingab metaphorically beats himself!  #10 DYNAMIC FLYER (Flightline) may have other ideas…

Heat C

Runners    –     15

“Yellows” –     11

Common Sires –  Gun Runner(3), War Front(2)

Gun Runner is definitely emerging as the favorite 2yo sire of the ESR dirt breeders so far, but there’s always a Tapit or Candy Ride or one of their sons lurking nearby.  I always think of War Front as a turf mile or dirt sprint kind of sire, so it’s surprising to see him show up here at a dirt mile so many times again! 

Three co-favorites each 7-1 in this heat, and of course it’s two of the Gun Runner’s and Spinround’s Nyquist filly #14 MARCH OF MAEDHROS.    Flagdown has one gigantic egg in this basket with #4 ZIGGY’S GOT A GUN, a scratch-bred Gun Runner x A.P. Indy. Danzig  who’s capper color is a ‘dark yellow’ the likes of which I have not seen since that day I forgot my water bottle for the hike.   Ok hell, let’s mention the other Gun Runner – it can be a rivalry.  That one is also a scratch bred, Gun Runner x Deputy Minister x Mr. Prospector, coming out of the 8 hole for Lbailey.  GUNS OF THE DEPUTY also a dark yellow and I’m probably going to quit with the similies while I am ahead.

Will throw a last plug for scratch-bred #7 STAR LAWS (Trotter) who caught my eye not only for the sire Constitution (I got one of those!)  but also the backend consisting of GALILEO(IRE) x FORTY NINER.  That’s a decidedly surface ambiguous if not turf curious pedigree combo – Galileo 17% dirt and Forty Niner 30% turf earnings as dam sires, per game stats.  I’ve seen it time and time again where Galileo, Sadler’s Wells and the likes are paired with Dirt Classic sires to get Champion Dirt horses… but not when I try.  Gonna keep my eye on this guy!

I agonized quite a bit over the breeding of leased mare GOOD QUALITY CRY (Quality Road x Street Cry), knowing I’d get a route horse that might mature later & had plenty of Mr. Prospector, to the point that I needed to avoid him on the tail-male side.  The mare has only a 3yo American Pharoah filly in her produce, and she’s yet to break maiden, so I was looking for something with a little more speed at a shorter distance.  Like a mile. 

I settled on 2021 Breeder’s Cup Dirt Mile winner Life Is Good (Into Mischief x Distorted Humor) who isn’t putting up Gun Runner numbers but does have a fast SIM G2 winner out of a Street Cry mare (Trotter’s LIFE IN SEATTLE).  So once again its me trying to mimic the residency’s best in order to beat them.  It was a coincidence, I swear!   #13 GOOD GAWD  not beloved by the oddsmaker at 12-1.

Heat D

Runners    –     15

“Yellows” –     14

Common Sires – Into Mischief (3), American Pharoah (2)

Saving the best for last?   Almost a clean sweep of “yellow” breedings here for the final heat, with only bargain sire brainiac Deeprock holding out with a 25 point sire on #13 TOROSA (Two Phil’s x Audible x Curlin) … as one does when you’ve produced a $10 million winner DARK MANDU from a stallion named Mountain High. Scary.

Wanna see something really, really scary?   Tisjuliet unveils #2 MASAYA (a nifty play on the stable name bliss), an extremely well-meant daughter of Into Mischief and ARRONAUTICAL (Arrogate x A. P. Indy) who was a GSP stakes winner but more importantly sports 119 and 120 Speed Figure efforts in her dirt route past performances.  The stereotypical analysis “could be any kind” would fit here, but I’d upgrade that to “probably gonna be some kind of awesome”.

The morning line favorite is #14 CHANCE OF STRIFE, one of the three Into Mischief fillies, out of Given’s maiden Curlin x War Front mare named WARACUKAZA.  She won three times at two and never ran a race as short as today’s flat mile, but we should expect the Spinround charge to be charging late.  This would be a great calling card for the Lease Mare program if she gets there in time.

Speaking of lessees, my entrant #5 TWO A’S FOR JANE was also produced from a mare leased from the Supertaffy band of broodmares.  The young JANE PENDELTON (Awesome Again x Kingmambo) never really settled into a niche, but she did win at 8.25f and 8.5f in her first two tries going long, which I liked.  Her first and only foal to race is a filly by Nyquist named NIGHTTIME JANE, and the now 4yo seems to be a 12 furlong specialist.  I hoped to introduce some different genetic combos to the excellent backend and decided I would flip two A cards, and take my chances with a strong dirt sire.   Two A’S for Jane, get it?

I got Honor Code.

Hmmm.

He hasn’t been producing great for awhile now, but a small consolation is that of his 13 Grade 1 winners in the game, 4 of them are out of Awesome Again mares.  One of those even has Kingmambo at the DDS – it’s PURPLE HONOR, winner of the 2022 Exam Stakes (G1 at 7f dirt for 3yo fillies).  It might have helped that her dam AWESOME PRINCESS won the 2012 The Priceless (G1 at 6f on the dirt for 3yo fillies), but now is not the time or place for pessimism.

If you think I am gently nudging the Sim Gods to bless my horse with G1 powers, well yes, you got me there.  Either that or let me win and beat Kingab, just this once.