Ka-Boom!
The Grade I, $500,000 Eruption Handicap is the most important race in history. I won it last year. The two things are not related. Much.
When Jesus Walks won the Eruption a year ago, it was my first Grade I win in three years in the Sim. I never expect things like that to happen to a rather average trainer such as myself. But it got me excited about the possibilities of not just running with the best, but being one of the best. If there’s a trainer among us who has a DelPenn Champion’s Day entrant this year and who has never won a Grade I race, my wish for them is to have that same kind of magical feeling that a win like that brings in the Sim. You honestly can’t beat the feeling of not just getting that first Grade I, but to do it on a day and on a racing schedule that has the attention of most of the Sim, including the most revered players, looking at you with respect for your first big victory. It gives you a lift on those days where you can’t even win a $2,000 maiden claimer with a horse who’s never run a speed figure higher than 40.
An Eruption win doesn’t always lead to massive continued success. JW was second in the Cosmopolitan Mile this spring, but didn’t win a race this year until November 8. (I’m working on it, so count me and him out at your peril.) But you can have success coming off a win in this race. Rhibus went on to win the Florida Derby in 2007, and Sisson’s Chant is still going well as “the Breeders Bowl-winning filly who beat the boys” in this Grade I in 2006. And just because you didn’t win the Eruption doesn’t mean you’ve got nothing at 3: Half A World Away would win a few graded races after a strong juvenile campaign and a second-place finish here two years ago. So it can be done.
This year’s field includes seven graded winners out of fourteen horses entered, yet the favorite isn’t one of those. It’s E Five with the chalk role here, and even without a graded win, he at least was a fast-closing second in both the Hoserhead Juvenile and the Darling-Squash Futurity this year, and his speed figures, while not strictly speaking the best in the field, have been pretty consistent all year long. If you were looking for a name above the marquee, there’s Tiz Smokin’ Now, who earned the only triple-digit speed figure here when he won the Breeders Bowl Juvenile last out. Bridled Dancer won both the Hoserhead Juvenile and the Buckeye Juvenile this year, and has only been off the board once in eight starts. And that’s just some of the main contenders with fascinating storylines to follow in this year’s running of the Eruption.
It’s a mile over the fast Maryland oval, and here’s what the field shows us:
Snake Strike [Smart Strike-Whitesnake, by Awesome Again, trained by salamander for Given Stables: Fire and Blood] has won five of his six starts, but makes his graded stakes debut here. He prefers to sit just off the lead, but with an absence of runaway speed and a major pace maker in this race, he seems like a more logical choice to be on the front end here. His speed figures do sit just a touch below the most competitive in here, with some room to improve, but his competitive level against this more ambitious competition is of more concern. The fields have been tiny in his last three outings, with fields of four, six and four, respectively lining up to run against him. While he’s handled them quite easily with competitive speed figures each time out, this is a sizable step up in quality, and though he’ll be worth following at 3, it’s a pretty sure bet he will need the race going forward here. Take heart in noting that his dam suggest added distance at 3 should be a great boon to him.
Hot And Spicy [Awesome Again-A.P. Superwoman, trained by londoner for Kevoman Stables] is the first foal of a graded-placed, multiple stakes-winning mare, and even though this is his ninth career start, he is not the most experienced one in the starting gate. He’s never finished off the board in his brief career, and made his stakes debut a noble effort when he was a game second in the Upper State Juvenile last out. The speed figures got a noticeable lift through his stretching out in distance this fall, and earned a career-best 96 for his trouble. He’s game for middle distance action, and is a mid-pack closer, which should benefit him very well. Additionally, his speed figures still leave room for improving, and he’s handled the class rise with aplomb. There are more consistent runners at this high level, but his experience and abilities seem to be peaking at a right time for this particular race.
Coppola [Ghostzapper-Clemenza, by Storm Cat, trained by super29 for More Evil Than The Evil Empire!] is the initial foal out of a modest stakes winner on grass, but has developed a love of the dirt in just seven races. He has stretched out to a mile with a pair of wins in his last two starts, including a closing finish in an impressive Connecticut stakes win last time. The speed figure earned was only a 92, though, and that remains his career best to date. The mile appeals to him for good reason with his pedigree, but there’s a lot of improvement to come for his efforts, and rising in class to the graded level for the first time is an approach that raises more questions about his prospects. The pedigree does hint that there’s not a lot more room for his best efforts routing, meaning he may have charm at a mile, but going much further than that is an open question. He’ll prefer closing to stalking from a tactical position, which helps him here, but the extra few speed-figure points he’ll have to gain to be competitive raise some doubts at present.
Bridled Dancer [Unbridled’s Song-Skip Dancer, by Skip Away, trained by russ for Russ Stables] won a pair of early-season graded races for the juvenile set, the Hoserhead Juvenile and the Buckeye Juvenile in the summer, but that form has not translated into success in the latter part of the year. A two-month break entering the Breeders Bowl did not pay off, as he ran somewhat flatly while finishing eighth after hanging out near the pace much of the way, and the subsequent third in the Arizona Diamond was just alright, neither fish nor fowl. His speed figures are relatively lower than what top-flight runners here are capable of, having peaked at 91 in the summertime graded wins, but his dam at least was a graded winner who did her best middle-distance running in the heart of her three-year-old season. There’s time to blossom yet, and the pedigree is quite strong for longer distances, so that won’t stop this colt. Yet, on form, the pieces do not appear to be fitting perfectly at present.
Incredible Law [Lawyer Ron-Incredible Mojo, by Storm Cat, trained by tg for Tg Stables] also isn’t the most-raced colt here, even with the colt making his tenth start in this season finale. The sole foal of a multiple stakes winner, he has been busy, with a win in the Grade II North Fork back in September. It earned him a career-high speed figure of 93, one he came close to duplicating in the BB Juvenile, but with a no-factor sixth-place finish accompanying it. Last time he was fourth in the Arizona Diamond, but has been coming from off the pace, an ideal tactic here, with some effectiveness. This is his first start at a mile since the North Fork win, which may help as there are hints of distance limitations. That said, his recent form too is a tiny bit suspect, his speed figures in need of a kick, but he has a ton of racing experience that figures to help him out more than some others here.
Misty Whisper [Latent Heat-Misty Woodbine, by Miswaki, trained by vertain6 for Vertain6 Stables] is the first foal that actually achieved much success for his graded-winning dam Misty Woodbine. He won the Vermont BB Juvenile back in May, but his success has come in fits and starts since then. No more graded wins have come, but he was third in the BB Juvenile and the Darling-Squash Futurity with improving speed figures into the mid-90s. He’s another one preferring an off-the-pace approach to a late run, and has the hunger to break through to a late-season win here, though some improvement really must come for a best effect here. The return to a shorter distance helps, as the pedigree doesn’t hold out many routing possibilities. But even if a mile might possibly be his outermost limit, that’s all it may take to show a life sign before 2009.
Tiz Smokin’ Now [Smoke Glacken x Tiznow, trained by flyingtail for Out in Front Inc.] only has three wins in six starts, but he has hit the board each time out, and, oh, by the way, is the ’08 BB Juvenile winner last out with a best-in-show 100 speed figure. That was his second graded win in a row, with a victory in the End Of The Line preceding it. This horse faces a bit of a conundrum: he’s won beyond a mile, but his pedigree, in particular his sire, has uncertainty about producing routers en masse. The bottom of the pedigree is pretty sharp about stretching out, but the sire has earned just over a third of his money in the last five crops while routing. There’s a certain uncertainty about any Sim pedigree, but it does seem to fly in the face of certain accepted principles here to think a son of SG might be a solid router. That said, he keeps right on truckin’, with improving speed figures and definitive victories as the season winds down. He’s done no wrong from a tactical perspective that likely applies here again, and who can knock what they have not beaten since September? The favorite and division leader until someone says otherwise, and thus a potent threat.
Osotogari [First Samurai-Straight Eight, by Forty Niner, trained by ontarget for Ontarget Stables] started his career with three wins in a row, including the Grade III Television Stakes and the Grade III Abject Juvenile, as well as the Cryogenics Juvenile in September, but he disappointed in the BB Juvenile last out, finishing fourth. He closed in the Cryogenics, but used his tactical speed in the other two graded wins, so he’s quite versatile. But the pedigree does have certain limitations in distance, even as they show he may be likely to bloom at 3. There’s not much loose speed to chase here, so he’s more likely to revert to what worked two back, with an impressive closing kick at a mile. The cut in distance helps, and his speed figures are lighter but reasonable to improve upon in this slot. He’s experienced, but with a two-month rest, is he fresh and fit for this? That’s the question to address.
Relax Wolf [Relaxed Gesture-Opera, by Joyeux Danseur, trained by graywolf21 for Wolf’s Den] is a bargain-bred running well beyond his meager start as a Czech-bred. The most raced horse here, approaching start #12, he’s only missed earning a payczech(!) twice thus far, but the credentials are a bit light on heft, with only a pair of stakes-placed finished dotting the landscape. He was seventh in the Sparkling Wine in October, in his only try at this graded level, but hasn’t always caught the best break for him when catching an off track, even when hitting the board, including an allowance win, in two of three wet-track races. He’s up against it on a speed-figure basis, having yet to crack the 90 barrier in eleven races, and though he’s been modestly successful at a mile, his pedigree is iffy when routing; his dam was usually better as a sprinter. The vast experience advantage helps, as does a tendency towards speed at times, a tactic not quite on full display here. But he’s a little low on the class experience and his successes at stakes level are modest, indeed; a minor share, but not much more seems within his scope.
Rock Slew [Rock Of Gibraltar(IRE)-Must Be A Slew, by Slew City Slew, trained by newvictory for Wjobsports radio farms] has come to life recently thanks to a surface switch which he adored. An unexpected, tiring second in the Grade II Club last out that got him a by-far career highlight of a 96 speed figure earned his stripes here while turning back in distance. He has appeared much more at home at a mile than going longer, and has some of that tactical speed, and he should have an appreciation for a change in tactics and scenery for this. That said, his pedigree has an awful lot of Seattle Slew in it with significant inbreeding within it, and even with a Grade II-placing he’s light on stakes wins overall on either surface, while admittedly a gamer. Was the speed figure a fluke, or is he on an upward developmental curve? Regardless, he needs to show more at stakes level to prove himself.
Sisson’s Sunday [Any Given Saturday x Northern Dancer, trained by levers for Binzaman Stables] won the Club Stakes last out with the second-best speed figure here, a 98. He gleaned experience from a poor showing in the BB Juvenile two back and has applied what he learned in winning a pair of stakes races late this past summer. He’s a real deep-threat closer, and should make one very long run late for his best effort. He’s a strong runner in this field, and should appear on the scene in the final quarter-mile. The speed figures fit, growing by leaps and bounds, and truthfully, shaving a quarter-mile off the distance may prove to be a major breakthrough for this promising colt. He’s definitely in the hunt, but might need some action on the lead to make that stretch kick as demoralizing as it was in the Club last out.
Running Samurai [First Samurai-Bride Will Run, by Unbridled’s Song, trained by meguire7th for Meguire Stables] won the Grade III Pea Patch Juvenile in the summer with a 93, but has yet to live up full-time to that promising outcome. A fifth in the Darling-Squash and a ninth in the BB Juveniles, with middling speed figures to boot, have set this colt back a bit, and express a need to find a start that can regenerate his promise. The two 89 speed figures in his last two races aren’t horrific, after all, but the lack of competitiveness doesn’t serve him well right now, and even the distance doesn’t seem to fit him; his dam was good at a mile, but a stakes winner when running at six and a half-furlongs. His best finishes have come either at or near the front end of things, and might be his best hope to begin to reverse recent trends. Still, it’s likely a return to maybe long sprints could do more for him in the long run. On recent form, the prospects are rather hazy here.
E Five [E Dubai-Ideally Suited, by Red Ransom, trained by cardinals for Fortune500] has the numbers that sit just below the marquee names, but his speed figures have a remarkable consistency to him that make him a justifiable morning-line favorite. He has four straight races with figures in the 90s, and they’ve shown improvement in recent weeks, up to a peak of 96 two starts ago. A staunch closer, he’s gotten better while stretching out, and it’s paid off with a pair of stakes wins since August. The knock on him may only be as simple as a lack of a graded win to date, but he’s been super-competitive in his graded outings. He just missed by a long neck in the Darling-Squash back in August, and give it a game try in the Hoserhead Juvenile his first try at a long sprint when third back in July. But close isn’t close enough at a Grade I level, and he may need this race to prove how serious a threat he might be at 3. The closing run is aces and might be the best late speed in the field, and he has experience while never finishing off the board in eight starts; he’s certainly one to look out for as thoughts turn to the Triple Crown trail, and the return to a flat mile may tell the tale.
Summer Fleet [Afleet x Summer Squall, trained by zooomr4 for Zooomr Stables] showed a ton of early speed last out in a wire job in a Montana stakes that earned him a 91 speed figure. He’s won two in a row at the distance, and in a field in which early speed is lacking, he does have the capability to try and go out winging for as long as he can. His pedigree is solid for a miler, and if he does go to the front instead of playing things tactically cool while stalking, he could be a player here. That said, the speed figures lack pop, having gotten no higher than the very low-90s, and he was no factor in his only graded race back in July, though he did finish fifth, his worst showing in six starts. He’s certainly fast, and the distance appeals to him clearly, but one isn’t quite sure if he can hold on at this point in his young life and widening developmental curve. The last three outings also didn’t produce much in the way of strong competition to get him better prepped for a return to the graded ranks; he’s more likable should he get a clear trip just off the front end of things without much other competition pressuring him.
My selections:
1. Tiz Smokin’ Now
2. E Five
3. Hot And Spicy
4. Sisson’s Sunday
5. Snake Strike
Good luck to all, and happy holidays.