Lostogulous Looks to Remain Unbeaten, Earn 12th Win in Big Bazooka

As far as simulated horses go, Lostogulous has been a pretty good egg through her short career thus far, and Saturday she’ll try for an even dozen wins without cracking as she takes on four rivals in the five furlong Big Bazooka Turf Filly Sprint in Colorado.

Nextbonus’ 3-year-old daughter of Lost Canyon is undefeated through 11 career races and is the 9/5 morning line favorite here. She’s won multiple times on both dirt and turf, and even dispatched with a male rival in an open $10k starter allowance race last July. The only thing we don’t know if she’s good at is racing beyond the distance of 5 1/2 furlongs, as she has been kept to a narrow band of distances throughout her career.

Though she has won on both dirt and turf, she relishes the lawn the most, and all four of her stakes wins have come on that surface. Those stakes wins have come in her most recent four races and the last three of which have seen her win by over two lengths in each race, which is quite impressive as these short sprints tend to create close finishes in the Sim. Lostogulous has early speed, but is the tractable type who doesn’t need the lead and if she has an Achilles’ heel in this spot, I just can’t find it.

One person in the Sim who may not be enjoying the success of Lostogulous is Adrian, who bred the filly and entered her in a $10k claimer in her first race, out of which Nextbonus nabbed her. If you look up sire Lost Canyon using the find sires tool and click to see the history of his progeny, you may notice the only horse above Lostogulous is Lost Oases, a horse owned by Nextbonus and bred on the same Lost Canyon/Oasis Dream mare cross. The recently retired Lost Oases won four career stakes wins and won those all in a row as her juvenile season turned to sophomore (she even won one at 1 1/16, though she was primarily a sprinter). Canadian sire Lost Canyon is currently available for 42 breeding points or credits as I type this.

There are two other previous stakes winners in the Big Bazooka. Of these, Beerkeg’s Yozi Turkey (claimed for $5k out of her first race) is the fastest. The daughter of Conveyance (Washington state, 45 points/credits, Yozi Turkey is her top of the list product) earned a 90 speed figure in winning a six-furlong allowance race on New Year’s Day, then got her stakes win and an 89 speed figure in the 5 1/2-furlong Red Bond Turf Filly Special. She’ll have to step up to match Lostogulous’ 93 and 94 speed figures from her most recent two races, but Yozi Turkey is certainly in range and a contender here. She’s the co-third choice at 7/2.

Cuetec’s Koz Heavy Leg (Sea the Stars, out of a stakes winning Cracksman dam) was fifth in the Red Bond, and fifth in the grade three Celine D Stakes before that, all that coming after she won consecutive stakes races in August and September. Her top speed figure of 88 came at six furlongs and she may prefer distances a bit longer than the five furlongs of the Big Bazooka. She drew the rail and is 7/2 on the morning line.

Equus Non Grata is 2/1 second-choice here, just behind Lostogulous, but that’s primarily based on her main-track form in longer sprint races. Whocares’ daughter of Flightline placed third in a pair of dirt stakes races in November, earning a 79 speed figure in a five furlong race, then her career best 92 in a 7 1/2-furlong race. That 92 would make her competitive here, but can she get back to it here? Directly following that speed figure top race, she wheeled back for a third November race and narrowly won an n4x allowance at five furlongs on turf, notching a speed figure of 82. A dirt race at the same distance just over a month later saw her pull down an 85 speed figure when fifth in a listed stakes race, a figure she has failed to match in two subsequent starts, though racing here on a month’s rest may help.

The longshot in the field at 6/1, Est Angry Packed also seems likely to continue a streak in the Big Bazooka. Corza’s daughter of Frankel has finished fifth in two consecutive stakes races, earning identical speed figures of 78, and that finishing place may be in the card again Saturday. Prior to those two races, she wired an n1x allowance race to earn her career best speed figure of 81, which is a fair gap away from her foes in the Big Bazooka.

Twelve-race winning streaks don’t fall off of trees in the Sim but Lostogulous has more than a fair shot to accomplish the feat Saturday. The 7/2 odds of Yozi Turkey seem fair, though not value, and I may be inclined to take a shot here if I’m feeling prickly. Good luck to all.