Mile will not be Sterile or boring
It’s always a pleasure to cover the graded stakes in New York, and this week is no exception with the ninth running of the G1 Sterile Mile. The $450k stake features a full field of the bet main-track milers in the game, including the top 4 finishers in the Breeders Bowl Dirt Mile. Duke Ali set the record of 1:33.1 way back in 2000, but this group has the talent to break it.
The brlliant 3yo Panhandling drew the rail post, which perfectly suits the A.P. Indy colt’s frontrunning style. He’ll be able to break real fast and save ground if trainer Dixiedotco has any say in the matter. Panhandling was a very close second (by just a head) in the Breeders Bowl Dirt Mile, where he ran a lifetime high 114SP. Assuming he’s not bouncing to the skies this time around, look for another 110+. Looks like the backup to the mile is just what the sim doctor ordered for multiple graded winner. 9-1 but looks better than that.
Zaza’s Staff Trouble gets the second post. Fourth in the Breeders Bowl Dirt Mile, the 4yo son of Storm Cat is very fast. The 118 he earned in the Cosmopolitan earlier in the year os proof positive. Staff Trouble regularly pops 110+ although it is rare for him to put together 3 straight strong efforts. After the challenge of the Breeders Bowl and a tough race in the Middle Gournd Mile, hard to believe the colt can keep up the speed a third time. 6-1.
Tap Dances runs for Gg from post 3. The 3yo Kingmambo colt was the hero of the Arkansas Juvenile, locking a derby spot handily. He really struggled most of the summer however, not finding his racing feet again until winning an 8.5f allowance with an out-of-nowhere 111SP. A quick trip to a listed stake showed the 111 was no fluke, and off Tap Dances went to the G3 Hudson Hawk last out. He ran sixth, but the 107 was enough to support trying again. The last three have all been at 8.5, and at a mile tap dances has been decently fast though seems to like a little more ground. Some big questions, but he seems to like giving bold answers occasionally.16-1.
Three Lemons enters the race with a beautiful 10:6-2-1 record (his only board miss was a fourth in CR Racers company) but very limited graded experience. Indeed, just one graded attempt so far, but it was a solid third in the Hudson Hawk. Big question is how he will take to facing elders. The backup to a mile should suit the Lemon Drop Kid colt perfectly, but Bobcat’s horse still has much to prove. 16-1.
Calvados has been a pretty handy miler in stakes company for trainer Sonsierra. The 5yo son of Sadler’s Wells popped a pair of 112s a few races back at a flat mile, winning an allowance and a listed. What I like here is that he prepped at 8.5 and will drop back a bit, which can often be a great angle to play. What I don’t love is the relative lack of graded experience. he’s run in one g3 and one g1. the g3 was way back in May 2007 and resulted in a fourth place at 8.5. The G1 was a 10f affair in May of this year and was pretty much a disaster of a race. Can he make it happen in grades? This will not be an easy place to find out for certain.
After a nice listed win last out, Armed and Ready looks like he really is armed and ready. Zewango2‘s 5yo son of Coronado’s Quest is a half-millionaire and a graded winner at a mile. His strength here will be front-end speed. Armed is capable of taking the lead right out of the gate or breaking slightly slower before demanding the front position. If he can keep up the pressure 8 panels, could be dangerous. 12-1.
My own A.P. Precedent gets to start from post 7. He pretty much tanked in the Breeders Bowl Dirt Mile, finishing ninth albeit only losing by 7 lengths. The 5yo son of A.P. Indy can be fast when the mood strikes, otherwise the 117SP he earned in winning the Lil Leprechaun Mile four back would never have happened. He tends to run from well back, which makes him rather vulnerable when there are speed horses in the field with the ability to stay out front in the stretch. A.P. Prec is capable of winning but doesn’t tend to show up on big racedays. 7-1.
Deejai2‘s Boogalee is fresh off three straight mile wins including a pair of stakes including a huge 118SP last out. Can the 3yo Seeking The Gold colt keep up his big speeds? That last race was super-impressive, but rare to see a horse win off such an extreme effort. Good news is he has beaten elders in every mile start against them, bad news is his only graded effort to date was a G3 against elders that he lost. Have to like him for a board finish at least. 9-1.
Composition is a 4yo by Victory Gallop still looking for some real success. The 18-1 Woof trainee does have three lifetime wins, but none in stakes company. A high SP of 112 shows the colt is no slouch, but he just doesn’t seem quite up to this big task. I’d like to see how he does dropped back to long sprints again rather than run at two turns.
How on earth does a Breeders Bowl champ go off at odds of 14-1? Looneylopo’s Snarky Remark is inexplicably being very overlooked at the betting window. The 3yo son of Invincible Spirit has found a comfortable home at the mile distance. He ran second ahead of A.P. Precedent in the Middle Gournd Mile three back in his first start versus elders, and is very comfortable at the G1 level. He is an extreme deep closer, so don’t be surprised to see him ten or more lengths back at the quarter pole. Lots to like about this talented colt.
Godmother’s Sahara Desert is just a few hundred bucks shy of the half-million mark, and is more than capable of running way past it here. The 3yo son of Encosta De Lago frequently runs 108+ at a mile, and I have to like his cutback from 8.5 in the Hudson hawk last out to a flat mile today. He is a G2 winner in his only start versus elders at eight panels. 10-1 makes him an attractive betting option.
The old man of the field, Biting Insects, runs for Mcjonny4 from post 12. The 7yo son of Fusaichi Pegasus is closing in on $2million in earnings and if he runs up to his abilities could be joining an new set of elite sim horses with this race. Biting Insects is a multiple graded winner both sprinting and routing, and has the kind of classy PPs that show he’s a real threat even if lightly regarded at 10-1. As recently as June he was pulling off graded placings, so despite his advanced age cannot be counted out.
Third-place in the Breeders Bowl Dirt Mile went to #13 here, Watergate Scandal. Jonsnow’s 4yo son of Empire Maker has a strong preference for running wire to wore and an extreme love of speed. He popped a huge 120SP in a G1 in June, and since has posted 111 and 113 as highs. This is a superfast horse and I suspect he’ll be back in the winner’s circle after this race. 5-1 odds are generous indeed.
The final runner is Sanchez’s Swiftsure. Already a millionaire, the 3yo son of Dehere won at Smackdown in a G1 with a super 111SP. He’s a confirmed frontrunner and capable of putting up big numbers but two losses in restricted company (in Equinics and the GR Simsters Championships) since Smackdown do raise some questions. 16-1.
I really like Watergate Scandal, Panhandling, and Snarky Remark here. All three are excellent horses in good form.