Annie, Get Your Run….(On)

The only thing I know about Annie Oakley is that she was the reason for one of the best musicals ever created. In that frame of mind, we have twelve fillies saying, “Anything you can do, I can do better—I can do anything better than you,” to one another in the Grade III, $125,000 Annie Oakley Stakes, a late-season musical extravaganza restricted to a cast of three-year-old fillies that feel like understudies when you look at the division rankings. Four of the top 100 fillies run here, but no filly is ranked higher than #41.

A fast track and a mile and an eighth as well as a graded win on the list of career achievements await this field of 11. Only one filly here, Slave To Ambition, has a graded win on dirt. And the only other graded winner in the field, Miesque’s Gold, who won a Breeders Bowl race at 2 on grass and makes her dirt debut here, is the only filly to have won a Grade I race. This helps to explain why eight of the eleven fillies entered are under 10-1 on the morning line. In the wide open field, there’s a visible lack, shall we say, of doin’ what comes natur’lly.

It’s a golden opportunity to make an entrance for an unheralded filly, and so there’s Bavmorda, who won her first two career races on the dirt in sparkling fashion. If you like a battle-tested two-turn specialist, there’s Retribution Angel, who won an open stakes in September and who was second in a restricted stakes last out. The well-bred Solar Empire represents the quality of those who have had a small taste of high-level experience and found that it appealed to them, the champagne-wishes-and-caviar-dreams crowd ready to take another baby step forward. There’s an angle for every filly here, and while that’s not altogether surprising in the Sim, the fact that a graded affair with a history of quality runners making an imprint has such a blank canvas from which to create a new potential star is an unexpected benefit in the ninth running of the Annie Oakley Stakes, the track record of which is 1:48, set by Berenguela in 2005.

Here’s the field:

Arseholic [Gone West x Northern Dancer, trained by arse2007 for Black Label Stables]
She’s coming off a pair of poor showings in graded events, and last won three starts back in an impressive allowance victory following a pair of turf starts.  It’s not as if this filly has no experience, as she is a stakes winner at the distance from June, but her first two tries in graded company, made because of the promising allowance win which earned a 102 speed figure, were devoid of such promise.  She’s a stalking type, preferring to sit just off the lead, but the 102 that looked so good a few weeks ago also happens to be the only 100+ speed figure she’s earned to date.  This field isn’t much in the quality-win category, but there is certainly a certain level expected in order to receive a graded win against such foes, and this filly hasn’t quite met that barrier consistently enough to be more than a strategic player here.

Bavmorda [Giant’s Causeway x Kingmambo, trained by ceclaim1 for Royal Belgian Kempen Farm]
After her first eleven races came on the grass, this filly came to life upon a switch to the dirt, in which her first two races since then have yielded speed figures of 110 and 101, respectively.  The turf starts weren’t necessarily mediocre, as they resulted in a pair of stakes placings, but the speed figures really didn’t give a lot of cause for excitement.  She prefers to make one late run from back in the field, and the speed figures have sparkled on the surface switch while gradually stretching out in distance, and this indicates that she’s a diamond in the ever-diminishing rough.  But the challenge here is transferring such potential into a graded debut on the dirt, and even with the speed figures from her allowance races, making a steep rise in class from strong allowance races into a graded stakes race may be more treacherous; still, based on those two dirt races, her future is quite clear, and it makes her a viable candidate to break through.

Unreal Wolf [Stephen Got Even x Dubai Millennium(GB), trained by graywolf17 for Wolf’s Den]
This filly has been pretty fair at stakes level, having been stakes-placed at 2, but recent form at middle distances has been quite spotty.  The last race she had at a middle distance was a fourth in a September allowance, and the last win came back in April.  She’s never had much luck against graded opponents before, and though she was third in a marathon stakes race last out, her best recent stakes result within the classic division was a third in a stakes in February.  She lacks a triple-digit speed figure to date, which, even on the cutback in distance figures to be a very high hurdle to scale here; do expect her to try and make her usual strong rally late in the race, as she is wont to do from well back in the field, but she may need the race of her life just to be in for a shot late.

Mocha Grand [Grand Slam-Weldon, by Capote, trained by madamson for Labreche Stables]
This filly has never been worse than fourth in just eight starts, and this includes a stakes win last fall and a second last out going a mile for the first time.  The speed figures fit pretty well in this spot, but she’ll be running a furlong more than ever tried before, and the pedigree is a bit questionable as the distances increase incrementally.  Previously she has gone out winging with some success, but as the class level gets much tougher, her role has been more of a tactical speed than an out-and-out pace maker.  The mile seems about perfect for her, but between the test for class and stretching out to a long route at nine furlongs, it’s a matter of her being able to allow that tactical speed to hold up in unfamiliar terrain.

Retribution Angel [Seeking The Gold-Once Wylde, by Touch Gold, trained by zewango for Black Label Stables]
She’s come close a few times on either turf or dirt, with a fifth this spring in the Grade I lool Oaks and a third in the Grade II Celine on the grass.  Yet she’s only won a restricted turf stakes and a nine-furlong stakes three starts back in Mexico for her career dossier.  She’s another closer, though one who has been showing life signs at the distance, with a strong second in a restricted mile and an eighth stakes last out and that Mexico win sandwiching a mediocre performance in the Grade I Three Smokestacks.  She’ll make her late run, and likely run back to her solid mid-100 speed figures in this slot, and she seems primed for a go at this higher level once again, but it’s indeed possible the nine furlongs might be a touch short for her, with stretching out a logical next step for the future.

Solar Empire [Empire Maker-Crazy Eight, by A.P. Indy, trained by basscat for Lsumark Stables]
She relishes slop and distance, judging by that strong allowance win last out at a mile and a quarter in the mud that earned her a 106 speed figure.  And yet despite looking very solid, she’s not a veteran, in that this marks only her tenth start and just her second stakes race, her last being a sixth in September’s Ontario BB Oaks.  She’s won three of her last four, comes off an impressive mid-pack closing victory last out, cuts back in distance and returns to drier conditions here, but the lack of marquee wins and stakes experience is always something that gives one pause.  Still, even a star has to start somewhere, and her brief career has yielded a lot of positive buzz surrounding her; then there’s the excellent recent form which makes her a good value play for being a co-third choice.

Miesque’s Song [Miesque’s Approval-Bride’s Song, by Unbridled’s Song, trained by dabears for Smokeglack Stables]
Her connections have tried everything but the last resort of dirt, so this 2006 BB Juvenile Turf Filly champ makes her first start ever on the dirt in this lighter graded race.  She hasn’t won since January and if we’re going to be honest, each race has been a little less impressive than the one before it since that last win, yet all of which have come against some very, very serious competition.  She’s certainly not been ducking anyone even when she’s struggled, and her pedigree is ideal for this distance on dirt, so stepping into this Grade III should feel like landing in a whole new universe.  She has preferred sitting in mid-pack and closing late; while there’s nothing to make one think that should change in this slot, such a (perhaps long overdue) surface switch may give this filly a spark of life that could do anything for her beneficially.

Foolish Kitten [Kitten’s Joy x Foolish Pleasure, trained by marto2 for Marto Stables]
She’s bred for the distance, but has yet to pop a figure over 100 in her career.  Yet her stakes efforts really have not been too bad, as she was fourth at a mile and a sixteenth this spring.  She’s trying graded opposition for the first time, though, and her recent form has been spotty: she won a NW2x allowance last out going nine and a half furlongs and turns back off that effort, but it was just her first win since May and her other efforts since then have been only modestly competitive.  This field isn’t so tough that she couldn’t be in for a piece at the end, but she’s another mid-pack runner hoping to his the jackpot here, and there are others whose form has been sharper or whose abilities to close the deal have been more impressive; making her graded debut in here doesn’t quite help fully.

Stormcreeper [Unbridled’s Song-Storm Mouse, by Gone West, trained by amandas for ‘Chief Stable Enterprises]
Beware the bosses’ horse: this winter she was a multiple stakes winner while trying long sprints, but she’s managed to stretch out with some effectiveness more recently, finishing second last time out in a nine-furlong stakes in the slop and winning a similar effort three back, also in the mud.  She came from well out of it to close for second last time in Massachusetts, and both of those off-track efforts earned her career best speed figures of 106 and 105, respectively.  The difference in this slot, though, is that unlike those off-track races, she’ll be facing straight three-year-old fillies again, on a fast racing surface, and the last time she had both those conditions, two back in the Grade I Durocher Rebellion, she didn’t like much of any of it, finishing eighth, albeit at ten furlongs.  She’s a deep closer hoping for a lot of speed here, although that looks a bit doubtful, and maybe she loves it wet, but with no off track and going maybe a touch longer than she might really prefer, and with only one 100 speed figure on a fast track, she may be looking at no better than a minor share.

Slave To Ambition [Distorted Humor-Anuenue, by Aptitude, trained by gwyneth for Chilcoat Stables]
There’s a ton of upside here: she’s got the best speed figure by far in the field (a 114), she’s got the only dirt graded-stakes victory here (in the Ontario BB Oaks in that same 114 race), and she’s got more stalker speed than a closing kick, bucking the trend of others in the field.  But then, there’s also the downsides: her best race was at a mile and a sixteenth and not nine furlongs proper, no other speed figure of her own ever comes close to that 114, plus she bounced last out when she was eased in the Grade II Cotton Handicap last out.  It’s her first race in about seven weeks, so there’s a comeback story emerging here, and against a lighter graded field in this spot, she might not need to be fully 100% for her best effort here.  The distance is on the high end of her range, to be sure, but she should have enough class to be reckoned with in the latter stages of this race; a deserving favorite who may need the race, but it might not matter a lot….possibly.

Tax Deductible [Vindication-Hi Jinx, by Danzig, trained by mtk76 for Shamrock Stables]
She too has had about seven weeks of rest coming out of a taxing (no pun intended this time) race.  She had an allowance field going a mile and a quarter under her command in the slop, but let that race slip away from her to lose a five and a half-length lead and a photo by a nostril, and may have come out of the race less than ideally; she’s expected to make the pace in this race and go out winging against this bunch, but sometimes it doesn’t work as much as it has been successful (in stakes wins on turf in July and on dirt in March).  Alas, her 100 speed figure last out was the very first in her career, and in spite of stakes wins at this level and distance she has not done well when aspiring to face graded opponents.  There’s not much to challenge her on the front end, and the distance certainly suits her, but her stamina off the lengthy rest is a question mark to be addressed, and while she returns to a fast track here, maybe she just likes the going to be muddier than usual; in any event, she’s a factor in a race without a pace dictator in it.

My selections:

1. Solar Empire
2. Bavmorda
3. Slave To Ambition
4. Miesque’s Song
5. Tax Deductible

Good luck to all, and happy American Thanksgiving in advance.