25th Anniversary of the Traveler’s Stakes

This year marks the 25^th running of the 10-furlong “Mid-summer Derby”, the Travelers Stakes in New York.   The speed record for this race has held for a good 20-years and was set by Granhee, back in 2004 and clicked off at a very sharp 122.0  (what would that be in today’s world?).  The highest odds for a winner in the race is 12/1 which has occurred four times, including the last three years, which include Lexitonian Again (2023), Nightborne (2022), Dads Rule (2021) and Rhaedgar’s Fury (2014).  Two horses share the lowest odds for a winner at 3/1 and include the above mentioned Granhee and I Seek U (2003), both of which won the Bluegrass Derby and I Seek U being a triple crown winner, Horse of the Year and Hall of Famer!

So there is prestige that could come from winning this race.  Many horses that win, go on to win an Eclipse award.  Many of these entrants are hopeful to add some cash to their point total from this $3,000,000 purse rich race.   The top three ranked colts are all entered into this race which include top ranked Alternate Xmas (4.7 million), Selfish Rage (2.1 million) and My Messiah (2.1 million) and many other runners looking to rocket up the standings.

Let’s look at the field entered into this field:

1  MEDAGLIA QUALITY  8/1  gets the inside rail for owner Stockswami and is the first born child from listed stake winning mare Lady on the Road.   Medaglia Quality appears to be in very fine shape coming into the Traveler’s race as he has won his last two starts, both grade level races.  In Mary, he ran in the G3 The Grunt and sat mid-field before taking off in the stretch to win by a half stride with a 110 speed.   Medaglia kicked the speed figure up to 114 in his last start, the G2 The Liar where he ran a closer fourth in the early phases of the race and took off, never looking back as he galloped to over a two stride victory and firing off his career best speed in the process.

Medaglia Quality has a 5-0-2 record in nine career starts and looks to make his first G1 race start.  Since his first career start, which he ran a 70 speed in a MSW, his speeds have bumped upward with each and every start.  His form looks terrific and he has been dominating at 8.5 furlong distance, winning four of five career starts.  He has raced 9f once (finished 7^th in the G2 Land’s End) and will be stretching out in distance to 10f in this race.  Ability at this longer distance is unknown and seems to be the biggest concern going into this field.

2  ALTERNATE XMAS 12/1 is owned by Given and is the son to game mare Another Lifetime, a G1 winning lady.  Alternate Xmas is a hard late running colt, sired by Frankel.  He has a 5-1-0 record in 7 starts and all five wins were collected in consecutive fashion which started in November of 2023, breaking his maiden, then winning an allowance race, followed by a listed stake victory.  Alternate went on to take the top spot in the G1 Electric Feels, charging from 15 back at the half to win by a head and 104 speed on a sloppy track.  He wrapped up the 5-race win streak with a dazzling move from running 18^th at the half to win by nearly a stride in the G1 Bluegrass Derby, with a 103 speed on a good track surface.

Alternate Xmas pursued the triple crown but came up short in the Middle Jewel, finishing second, but did impress with another huge closing move from 16 back to miss by over a stride.   Alternate Xmas probably was worn out when he took on the long 12-furlong New Yorker where he finished 15^th and the late run was lacking.

He has had a good 2-month break, which was needed after running the 3-triple crown races in just over a month time span.  He should be in much better condition and look for nice improvement.

3  ON THE UP AND OUT  14/1 is another entrant from the Given stables and he is a scratchbred colt with the Curlin x Danzig x Mr. Prospector bloodline.   On the Up and Out has 10 career starts of which he has won four times and finished second three times.     He earned an entry a fist full of points in the G1 Vermont is 4 Lovers back in February with a win and a 106 speed to earn a spot in the Bluegrass Derby.   He was a longshot in the race and ran flat throughout, finishing 7^th.  On the Up and Out rested for two months and ran in the G1 Eddie Haskell, equaling his career best speed of 106, but without the win to go with it as he again ran flat with an 8^th place finish.

On the Up and Out had a terrific 2-year old season last year with 3 wins and 3 places and included a G3 win in the Charcoal Breeder’s Cup.  He has become erratic since turning three but does have capability that needs to be exerted.  Looks like an outsider on paper but capable of getting things back together and may surprise.

4  RATIONALISED NOIR 16/1  was sired by Justify and was mothered by game mare Cat in The Dark.  Owened by Fdllodge20, this colt sports a 3-4-1 record over 10 lifetime starts.  His last four starts have all been in graded stake races, the first came as a 2-yo in the G2 Club Stakes which Rationalised Noir easily by over a stride.  He came up short in the Vermont is 4 Lovers, finishing 2^nd with a 105 speed figure and a bit more than a stride off the winner (On the Up and Out who starts in the adjacent gate in this race). 

Rationalised did not like the wet surface in the Bluegrass Derby and finished a mid-field 10^th, never  being competitive in the event.

His last start, the G1 Clerk of Scales Stakes  showed some promise as Rationised notched a 106 speed while finishing second, but had a three stride gap behind the winner.   He has been at double-digit odds in his last four races, but has finished in the top two spots in three of these races.  Rationalised Noir likes to run in the mid-field area and he comes in again at double-digit odds that could pay off!

5  OUTBACK HANKER 18/1 is a scratchbred colt owned by Nikkik.  He has a nice bloodline of Justify x AP Indy x Danzig.  Careerwise, he has raced 9 time with a 3-1-2 record.    Outback Hanker is a late runner with a strong kick that needs to be respected.  This year, in February, he finished second in a listed stake race with a 102 speed, rallying from 12 back at the half to be within just over 3-lengths of the winner.  He followed this nice effort up with an appearance in his first grade level race, the G3 Chicago Derby, slicing off a career best speed of 107 while taking the win by 3-parts of a stride, again, coming from well back at the half.

Outback Hanker disliked the wet surface in the G1 Wooden Indian and finished last with no effort shown.  But he made a comeback in his last outing, the G1 Clerk of Scales making up about 10 strides from the half to finish third (105 speed).   The track should be dry, a big benefit to this runner.  He adds a minimal ½-furlong in distance from his last start, which is also helpful.  Race conditions should be ideal for Outback who has the steepest odds in this field.  May pop at huge price.

6  MY MESSIAH  5/1  is the favorite with the bettors in this field and is owned by Worldclass.  He has a 3-1-3 record in 8 lifetime starts.  Five of his starts have been in grade level stakes and My Messiah has a 2-1-2 record within this elevated racing class.  He is a scratchbred colt with the pedigree of Curlin x AP Indy x Kris S.  My Messiah took thirds in his first pair of grade level races, the Nashua Special and the Giant Slayer Classic, finishing a bit over a length behind the winner in each of these races.  Things fired up significantly for My Messiah in the G2 Land’s End, in which he rallied from a mid-field spot to just miss the top spot in a photo finish, losing by a head and a 106 speed.

Wins came his way over his last two starts, in the G2 Buckeye Derby (winning by a length and a 114  speed) and in the Eddie Haskell, where he trailed by 9 at the half and drew away to a 2+ length win with a 115 speed.  My Messiah is in excellent form and his 110+ speeds of late support his favor with the bettors.   Three-in-a-row grade level wins are a very good possibility for this entrant.

7  BIG RON  9/1   is the son of game mare Wister Road, who is an Eclipse winner and Hall of Famer.  She has had great success with breeding as three of her ten children have G1 victories with another four winners of a listed stake race.  Wister Road has been sired by Redoute’s Choice and is yet another one of Given’s army of horses in this race. 

Big Ron has been on a roll this year taking three victories and finishing second twice in the five starts he has made.  He kicked 2024 off with a pair of gate-to-wire wins in allowance company by decent margins.  After these wins, he made his first stake appearance in a listed race, cranking out his first 100-speed (103) and was overtaken in the stretch, finishing second.   Big Ron quickly recovered and wired the field in his next start, another listed stakes race, leaving the field more than 2 strides behind in his dust, with a boost in speed to 108.

His last start was his first try in graded company, finishing second in the G2 Fake Honeymoon, and getting caught in the stretch after setting the pace.  The 111 speed looks very good as he ran 10-flanks in this race, which he will again contest in the Traveler’s.  Expect to see Big Ron cutting the fractions on the front and he could keep enough in the tank to take the field to the wire.

8  HE WANTS GUNS  6/1  was sired by Into Mischief and his mother She Wants Biceps is an Eclipse winner for owner Dochman2.  He Wants Guns has won four of his eight career starts with a second place finish.    2024 has become a stakes race season for this colt, who has race four times in graded company with one listed stake start.   He started the season in the G3 Good Cow he ran mid-field throughout the race and finished in a mid-field 8th spot.

One start later, He Wants Guns earned a listed stake win, with a solid 107 speed, running 2^nd early on and pounced out to a 2 length victory.  Things soured a bit in the next pair of starts, where he ran mid-field in both the California derby (G1) and Princess Cup (G2), concluding in similar mid-field positions of 7^th and 5^th with decent 105 and 107 speeds.  He found his career best speed of 113 in his last race, the G2 Fake Honeymoon, racing third in the early stages then struck in the stretch to rally to a 1-1/2 length win.

He Wants Guns looks best if he can get close to the lead early, perhaps the first to third slot.  Anything further back has not worked as well.  Positioning early on is the key to his success.

9  MERCHANT OF DEATH  14/1  is another entrant in this field from the Worldclass  stables and he is a scratchbred colt with the Gun Runner x Danzig x Tapit bloodline.  He has raced ten times over his career and has a 3-4-0 record currently.   He has quick “out of the gate” speed and will be pushing to get to the front early on.  All of his wins have been gate-to-wire rides with two of these in the allowance class and an early 2024 listed stakes win.

Since the listed stake win, Merchant of Death has competed in a trio of graded stakes with a second in the G2 Moises Alou Cap, 7^th in the G1 Corkscrew (he was unable to get the front spot in this event) and second in the G1 Rod Edwards Commemorative Derby, overtaken in the stretch and hit his career best speed of 107 on a wet track surface.    Speed is a concern as others in the field have been hitting 100+ levels with more consistency.  Taking control of the field on the front end is a task he will have to achieve and holding that spot all the way is his road to victory. 

10  LIVE A LIL 16/1 is a scratch bred colt, representing Beerkeg, and has the breeding line of Tapit x Danzig x Mr. Prospector.   Live A Lil has a record of 5-1-0 over a dozen career starts.   Live a Lil concluded the 2023 season with a nice win streak of three in a row, consisting of an allowance wing and pair of G1 victories in the Sparkling Wine and Breeders’ Jewel.  He took several months off and returned to compete in the Bluegrass Derby and finished well behind, seemingly not liking the wet track surface.  Live would have another poor outcome in the G1 Roed Edwards Commemorative Derby, faltering again on another wet surface.

His last start was in the Eddie Haskell where he finished an improved fourth with a career best 108 speed.  Live a Lil looks most comfortable when he is running near the front and looks to make a turnaround in this race.  The 2023 Eclipse Award winner hopes to take this race as a pivot and move back in the right direction and catches a dry track which could point him back to the winner’s circle.

11  DERRY CHURCH  10/1  is the child of game mare American Destiny, who is a listed stake winning mare with two of her five children becoming graded stake winners.   Derry Church is one of the grade winners and he was sired by Twirling Candy and is owned by Dixiedotcom.  Derry has a record of 4-3-2 over 10 lifetime races and has been performing very well in the 2024 race season finishing first or second in five starts this year.

Derry Church has a pair of wins and a second in allowance competition at the onset of this season.  His last two starts have been in graded stake races, appearing first in the G3 Affirmative where he made up ground from a mid-field position to finish second by under 2-strides and a 105 speed.   His speed boosted up to 109 in his last race, the G2 Swamps and came from 7 back in the 5^th spot to power to the lead and won by two open lengths.   Derry has been added small bits of distance every few starts and has not been dissuaded by the ask.  He adds a furlong going into the Traveler’s and that should not be a heavy lift for him.  Speeds have been 100+ over his last four starts and could improve yet again.

12   NO MAP IN HELL 7/1  is owned by Crawf68 and this colt is a scratchbred out of Flightline x Seeking the Gold x Nijinsky 2^nd.   No Map in Hell has scratched out a 3-0-3 record over 11 lifetime appearances.    Over his last seven starts, he has raced in a mix of listed stakes and graded company events.  Over his first five tries in stake races, he muscled out a third as his only on-the-board result with no serious challenges in the other races.

Things have changed over his last two starts.  In the G1 Rod Edwards Commemorative Derby, on a wet track, No Map in Hell fired hard after passing the mid-point of the race and tore his way from 10^th to the top spot, winning by over two strides, with a solid 110 speed.  This was followed up with a similar maneuver in the G1 Eddie Haskell, coming from 11^th to finish 3^rd with a career best 111 speed.    No Map in Hell is showing quite a turn around in ability and is now flaunting his ability to close late and hard.  He could be mapping his way to the win as he adds a furlong which looks like it may be helpful in the long run.

13  OUTATIME  7/1   has been sired by Uncle Mow who was married up to game mare Jess Killin Time, a G1 winner who is also an Eclipse Award Winner.  Despite winning over $8 million over her career in racing, she has found a large amount of success in the breeding barn, with four of her six children winning grade level stake races.   Outatime has a 5-1-0 race record over 8 starts.  He is currently on a 3-race winning streak with the first victory coming in April in a listed stake event, coming from last to first by two strides and a 109 speed.

This slow starter next took a win in the G2 Princess Cup making up a ton of ground after trailing by 13 lengths at the half to power his way past everyone in a 2-stride victory and career best 111 speed.  His last race, the G1 Clerk of Scales, had this rocket blaster closer in last place at the half and exploding to the front and cruising to a three stride win.  Owner Canyongate could see this one add another notch to the win streak!

14  SELFISH RAGE  15/1  is owned by Tenpoint and is a scratchbred 3-yo with a breeding line of Frankel x Dynaformer x Storm Cat.  He has raced on both turf and dirt courses and has a career record of 3-6-0 in 10 starts.  On the dirt (which the Traveler’s race will compete upon) his record is 1-2-0 over 4 starts.  Selfish Rage has a G1 win earlier this year in the Vermont is 4 Lovers, on the turf, with a 109, coming from last to first and walking off with a 1-1/2 margin win.

After this race, he was refocused to the dirt, running in the Florida Derby and seeking the Bluegrass Derby lock.  He performed well, marching from the back end of the field and rallying to finish second in his first dirt race with a 109 speed.  He earned enough points to enter into the Bluegrass field and Selfish Rage fell to the backside of the field and charged hard on the wet surface to finish second by under a stride and a 103 speed.  The New Yorker was next and he was exhausted finishing miles behind the winner. 

Selfish Rage last start was in a Hot race prep for this event picking up an easy win against a weak field.  Selfish can take on either surface and is lethal with his late run ability.  He should be ready to run and may light up the tote board at the steep odds he will enter the gate at.

My Picks:

Outatime has won his last three starts all by healthy 2+ lengths and has nice late run ability, can take this one.

My Messiah has the best recent speed numbers in this field and has top 3-finishes in his last 5 starts, all grade level outings.  Favorite can do it again.

No Map in Hell may have made a turn for the better.  He’s last two speeds of 110+ are very favorable and could be  on course for much better things.

Selfish Rage looked very good prior to his run in the New Yorker.  This one could be a big spoiler.