G1 Birmingham Stakes Preview

The Favourite

#12 She’s Dangerous (GR Simsters) 5/1 : What is there really to say? The name says it all. On the verge of winning $2 million in her 10th start. Winner of 6 straight which include wins in the G1 Iool, G1 Bluegrass Oaks, and G1 Sister Hen. So, not only has she won all those in a row, she has been doing it against the best 3 year old fillies in the game. Definitely not like she has been squeaking by either as the closest rival was still 1 ¾ lengths behind her. A few new names in the mix here, and she ONLY owns the 2nd best speed figure coming in. Let’s just enjoy her show!

The Closest Rivals

#2 NYSP Justifyarrest (Universal Racing Club) 8/1 : Winner of 6 of 9 and comes in with the highest speed figure in the field. She has been heading to the starting gate in residency stake races and took down both the URC Oaks and URC Ashland in easy fashion. She battled graded company for the first time in her last and that was another easy victory in the G3 Meadow Oaks. She sure has been impressive in those last three, but this is a big step up. Does she have the talent to keep rolling?

#8 Outback Halberd (Down Under Racing) 8/1 : She got off to a lackluster start to the year facing graded company and one had to think that maybe she was in over her head at that level. Patience paid off and she has started to turn it around in her last 3 races. She has been much more competitive, which has included a win in the G3 Timber Stakes and a second in the G1 Sister Hen. Likes to come from way out of it and hope that she will have some pace to run into here. Can she get the jump on the others late?

#13 Wordskeptreturning 8/1 (All-Stars Racing) : Appreciate the name as I think we all have been in that cycle before. The start of her 3 year old campaign had her connections thinking about what could be with her. Two straight wins including the G1 Yes OK. Unfortunately, the last two in the G1 Bluegrass Oaks and G1 Sister Hen have been solid, but not spectacular. She finished in the middle of the pack in both and her connections hope she can find the form that gave them so much promise. Are these just too tough for her?

The Next Best

#4 Malak Bukpal (MIDAS) 10/1 : Took her a bit to mature and break her maiden, but once that happened she sure put together a nice stretch. Got her graded win two back with the victory in the G3 Selena. Tried the G1 Sister Hen next and finished a disappointing 9th in a race where she couldn’t make up very much ground late. The speed figure dipped and one has to wonder if these are too tough for her at this point in her career. Will need a boost in speed figure, can she rebound from the last?

#5 Genuine Depth (MIDAS) 9/1 : That win percentage is a thing of beauty as she has taken home victories in 7 of her 10 races so far in her young career. The issue with her is when she doesn’t win, she doesn’t compete at all. The outliers are extreme and make you think which one of her will show up today? The good news is she is a graded champion with a win in the G3 Whitetail Stakes and she did rebound nicely in her last with the effort in the listed stake. Can we trust her today?

#9 Arsenal Charm (East-West Connection) 10/1 : Looks like she was trending up in May when she put a 108 on the board and took down the G2 Black Middle Flower. Unfortunately, she bounced off that effort with that disappointing performance in her last. She takes a step up to face better today and sure it is hard to forget that professional effort two back, but where has that been any other time? Might be in over her head, but what if she runs back to that race?

#11 Airborn Skittles (GR Simsters) 9/1 : One who was just on the brink of something special with the 2nd in the G1 Iool Stakes, which was followed up by the 3rd in the G1 Bluegrass. Sure, it is nice to win, but those were two very good performances that put her in the mix with the best in this division. She took a step back trying a mile in the G1 Chestnut in her last, so I have to think she will like getting back to the longer distance today. Threat to make the podium, especially if she can get loose on the lead in this one.

The Lower Tier

#3 Sia Siberia (MIDAS) 11/1 : Most experienced in the field as this will be her 13th march to the starting gate. She found the winner’s circle back in April with the victory in the G1 No Rain. Unfortunately, it has been a tougher go in her last two. She faded to 9th in the G1 Bluegrass Oaks and decided to try the 12 furlongs last out in the G1 Royal Heiress. She came 4th, but was 14 lengths behind the winner who is one of the “longshots” in today’s field. Can she get back to that winning effort?

#7 Fits of Rage (Orphan Racing) 14/1 : Hasn’t really run a bad race in her career as 4th is the lowest position she has ever finished. She comes in off a nice jump in speed figure and a win in the G2 Los Angeles Oaks. She ran away from that field and this seems to be the next logical step for her to try. The only other G1 she has participated in was a 4th in the G1 42 Days Out, which showed she belonged at that level. Been on the shelf for a couple months, but is a quality addition to those who have battled each other in this division lately.

#10 On A Jet Plane (No Residency) 14/1 : Definitely did not like the distance in her last as she faded to 8th in the 12 furlong G1 Royal Heiress last out. As mentioned, the winner is back here as a “long shot”, so her connections must really hope she likes getting back to 9 furlongs today. She was a hard closing 4th in the G1 Bluegrass Oaks, so that has to give some confidence she will bounce back. Will still need to improve that speed figure. Odds seem fair on her.

#14 Ooooook (GR Simsters) 12/1 : This front running filly has been patiently handled by her connections. Tried the G1 Yes OK back in March but faded to 5th down the stretch. Instead of continuing to push her, she has run in back-to-back listed stakes where it looks like she could get some confidence back. She led by as many as 7 lengths in her last and will look to push the pace in this one. The question of course becomes can she hold them off late. Not a ton of pace here, so will be interesting to see how far she can go on the lead.

The Longshots

#1 Winter in SF (All-Stars Racing) 18/1 and #6 Pictures Crazy (All-Stars Racing) 20/1 are the longshots in today’s field. Winter In SF is 2 of 7 lifetime, but came 2nd in the G1 Bluegrass in her last. She is also a G1 champion with a victory in the Vermont Is 4 Lovers. Keeps producing at longer odds. Pictures Crazy is coming in off a 3 race winsteak which includes the G1 Royal Heiress. She is ranked the #1 D/L for this division. These long shots both look like they could make a case to be included in the discussion today. I wouldn’t forget about either one of them.

Field In Numbers

Horse	Speed – Career	CPU Value	D/R Rank	Total Points
She’s Dangerous	112.6	1093	1	41
Outback Halberd	109.3	992	14	33
NYSP Justifyarrest	113.3	1036	59	30
Wordskeptreturning	106.4	985	8	30
Genuine Depth	109.1	969	42	25
Arsenal Charm	108.9	918	25	24
Airborn Skittles	106.1	949	18	24
Winter In SF	105.8	852	6	21
Fits of Rage	108.1	896	30	20
Sia Siberia	105	888	9	18
Pictures Crazy	110.6	836	67	15
Malak Bukpal	104.5	942	47	14
Ooooook	105.3	893	62	11
On A Jet Plane	103.7	818	28	9