Desert Lady Stayer
The Grade One Desert Lady Stayer may not have the moniker but is one of the many big races in the lucrative Sand Castle Festival. Run annually in Dubai the festival attracts the best of the best in the game and this year is no exception. This particular race is run over a mile and three quarters in distance over a dirt course which this year is rated fast. We have just two fillies lining up to face eight mares this year and the field seems very evenly matched. Eight of the entrants are in single digit odds. Let’s take a closer look at this tight field.
#1 Tapitus 21/1
Tapitus is the first of our two entrants in double digit odds but don’t be too quick to scroll by her. She’s only four years old with just nine starts under her belt. Two of her last three starts have come against males. She won the first of those, a local bred allowance at this distance and then was second in her most recent start, a local championship going two furlongs shorter. Sandwiched in between those two dirt starts was a fourteen furlong listed against fillies on the turf where she ran third but also ran her fastest speed to date, a 104. That’s the rub with this filly, her speeds just aren’t up there with the rest of this field. But she’s been in the money in seven of those nine starts and obviously likes this distance. There is a lot of upside to her and while this may not be her coming out party she will almost certainly have one as she matures and gains experience. Interestingly she is a scratchbred daughter of sprinter First Defence with a Pulpit x Unbridled backend, undoubtedly where she gets her stamina.
#2 OG Quality Xmas 5/1
For a five year old OG Quality Xmas is relatively lightly raced with just eighteen career starts. In those races she’s tried just about everything imaginable, especially recently. Last September she earned the biggest victory of her career in the Grade One Great Dane over this surface and distance going wire to wire. She dropped back to a mile and a quarter in the Grade One One Eyed Viper, run over a good track where she never picked up her feet, breaking eleventh and finishing ninth. She followed that up with another poor dirt race in a six and a half furlong listed event. Her most recent start saw her going a mile and three eighths on the turf in a grade three where she finished a solid fifth with a career best 112 speed. In that spot she again failed to challenge for the early lead and her best races have seen her forwardly placed. One wonders whether her connections have played with the jockey instructions to get her into position early. She’s a scratchbred daughter of Quality Road x Nureyev x Fappiono.
#3 Countess Balain 9/1
Once available for a claiming tag of $3,500 Countess Balain has outrun expectations. She’s won seven times from twenty five starts and been eight times placed. Most of her races have come over the turf but she’s 6-2-2-1 on the dirt. She hasn’t started on this surface since April of last year where she was second in an allowance. One race prior to that she ran this distance over a yielding turf course and was third in a listed. She was third in another listed back in December. Again on the turf and this time run at a mile and five eighths she was just off the early pace before fading in the stretch. She’s never finished better than that in a stakes race making this a very ambitious spot. She’s a five year old daughter of Al Ain out of a stakes winning daughter of Shamardal x Lemon Drop Kid.
#4 Woette’s Explorer 36/1
The longest shot in the field is this five year old daughter of Volatile out of a graded placed stakes winning Zensational x Storm Cat mare. Of those three sires the only route influence among them is Storm Cat who is not necessarily known for his marathoners. That said dam Walk to the Moon was best at these longer distances including two graded placings at this distance and at two miles. This mare has been available for a claiming tag five times in her career, with the lowest price a $35,000 asking price back in June. More recently she was in two claimers in November and December and ran second in both. She moved into an allowance going a mile and five eighths two starts back and was an easy winner but only ran an 82 speed. Most recently was was second, beaten just a quarter lengths in a two mile allowance where she ran a 98 speed.
#5 Only Hearts 7/2
Our favorite Only Hearts is the defending champion here. Last year she sat midpack early on before swooping to the lead to win by three lengths with a 112 speed. She made two more starts on the dirt after that with the best run coming in a two mile grade two versus males in which she was third, but well back. Switched to the lawn she was third in a grade two and then second in a grade one with solid speeds of 111 and 109. In December she returned to the dirt in the Grade One Saturday Night Girl at two miles where she again made a strong move down the stretch but she came up a length and a quarter short, finishing thid with a 104 speed. Her prep for this race came over the lawn in a grade one going a mile and a half where she finished seventh. She’s a six year old daughter of New Approach out of a Sunday Silence x Seattle Slew mare who produced two other stakes winners.
#6 La Choette D’or 6/1
La Choette D’or is the shortest priced non-graded winner in the field. She’s a four year old daughter of Tapit out of the grade three winning Giant’s Causeway x Sadler’s Wells mare Curseofoakisland. ‘Curse’ won the biggest victory of her career going two miles over the lawn although she was effective down to about a mile and three eighths. La Choette D’or has never run beyond a mile and a half and indeed only has one race going that far. Interestingly in that June 2023 start she won a listed stakes with a 99 speed, close enough to what she had been running at shorter distances at that point in her career. With maturity her speeds have increased and she most recently ran a 110 going a mile and five sixteenths at the beginning of February. The biggest question for La Choette D’or may not be distance but surface. She’s run on the dirt twice and did get an allowance placing last summer but given her dam’s preference for the turf and the form La Choette D’or has currently the switch to the dirt might give her more trouble than some of the others with dual surface form.
#7 Dootsin Maximized 7/1
Looking to regain top form is Dootsin Maximized. This six year old daughter of Medaglia D’oro out of a Speightstown x Alleged mare won the Grade Two Radiant Stakes in November of 2022 going a mile and three quarters on the dirt. After that run she made five starts in 2023 with her best finish coming in a grade one in March. She was off the board in her subsequent runs and was shelved after a fourth place finish in a grade two in August. Dootsin Maximized was rested until the end of January of this year when she returned to the races in the Grade One She Deserves Revenge at a mile and three eighths where she ran a dull eighth. So what to make of her? Certainly it would be easy to toss that race out if you think she was out of form but considering she had failed to hit the board in her prior four races as well it is a tougher call. If she does run back to her Radiant form she’s in with a shot.
#8 Sensawaza 5/1
Hailing from the legendary Kamikaze foundation mare for trainer Given is Sensawaza. She’s a daughter of Street Sensebased on a stakes winning Uncle Mo x A.P. Indy hemare. He did his best running around a mile but Sensawaza has shown great form going much longer. Last April she won the grade three Charlotte Cup going a mile and three quarters and then immediately followed that up with a win in the Grade Two two mile Turtle Bridge. Her form fell off slightly from there but she seems to have found it again. She’s won both of her 2024 starts. Both races were allowances over this trip with the first victory resulting in an impressive 109 speed. Her most recent start saw that drop to only a 92 but she won by open lengths in the easiest way possible.
#9 Nchuthnkarst 4/1
Another Medaglia D’oro mare is Nchuthnkarst who is a scratchbred with Deputy Minister x Tapit on the backend. She had easily the best season of her career in 2023 when she won the Grade One Little Rock Stayer and was placed in three other graded stakes including losing another grade one by just a head. She’s made only one start in 2024 and that came at the end of January in the Grade Two Old Lady at a mile and three quarters and she ran a somewhat dull third with a 102 speed. She likes to sit a bit off the early pace, usually second or third but she can be rather far back at times for all that. She did close three lengths down the lane in that spot, it just wasn’t enough to factor for the win. Her prior race saw her finish second in the Grade One Empire State Stayer over the same trip and she ran a 109 speed so it could just be that the Old Lady was a bit of a blip and not necessarily a sign that she’s losing a step.
#10 Running Donkey 9/1
Running Donkey is a five year old scratchbred daughter of Blame x Ela-Mana-Mou x Seattle Slew. She is in the best form of her career having started the year with a listed win (just the second of her career) followed by her first graded stakes triumph in the Grade Three Miss Bourbon Street. Both of those races came over a mile and three quarters on the dirt and she won with a 98 and then 106 speed which is just two points shy of her career best earned in November of 2023. She’ll be well off the early pace but she’s got a great closing kick. In the Miss Bourbon Street she turned a seven and a half length deficit at the top of the stretch into a three length rout of the field. This is a big step up but her form suggests she’s capable of taking that step.
Good luck to all!