Miscalculation vs. Sabbath Point
The Cecil Roo Classic gives us the Matchup of two of the greatest 3yo fillies, Sabbath Point, and Miscalculation face head-to-head for the first time, both so far have been in a league of their own for a great part of the season, but have struggled recently. Now they’ll meet likely in a serious Breeders Bowl Prep Race, over 1 mile, which should be about the best distance for both, with miscalculation perhaps liking a furlong less, and Sabbath Point, wanting a furlong more. So the ground seems even, but hey, wait, there are 7 other runners, let’s take a look at all of them.
#1 BONE OF GOLD(KY) 66/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=142851
6 Races – 1 Win – 29,160$
Remember, if the odds maker gives you 66/1, it’s highly unlikely your horse is entered into the wrong race. This Storm Cat filly, showed some nice progression in her last races, finishing 2nd 3 times in a row after her maiden win, in the third race of her career. She only sprinted so far, and her lifetime high was a 86. Sorry, wrong race, when we expect the winner to crack the 110 mark.
#2 MISS SULLIVAN(KY) 6/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=130919
13 Races – 5 Wins – 226,660$
This 3yo A.P. Indy Filly has been switched from dirt to turf a couple of times, and to me it’s mysterious, why after 3 good performances on turf, the filly gets another shot at the dirt track. She ran three consecutive 100+ speeds over 8f Turf in a row, winning an ALW and landing in the money in 2 Grade 2s. Her best performance on the dirt was a Stakes win in March scoring a 99 speed. Looking at her progression, she may surely be able to break 100 on dirt, but not much more, would be my pick in a turf race, but this race is scheduled for the fast dirt track here in Kenntucky.
#3 I’VE SEEN IT ALL(ENG) 9/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=11973
9 Races – 4 Wins – 53,357$
The 3yo Sakhee Filly comes off 2 ALW wins over 8f dirt, so she knows how to win over that distance. Both wins have come with 100 speeds and a lead of a couple lengths, so she may be able to go a tap faster. However has yet to win a Stakes Race, so the step up to Grade 1 remains doubtful, is coming along nice, but the field may be a little over her head.
#4 WONDERGIRL GITTE(TUR) 7/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=135716
14 Races – 5 Wins – 174,960$
The 3yo Mountain Cat filly has a lot of experience in Grade 1 Racing, her last 3 starts came in Grade 1s, unluckily experience was the only thing she most of the times could pick up. Her best finish came in the Cevian Stakes, when she finished 3rd, beaten by Vheissu and Miscalculation, who she will face again, this race also brought her lifetime high of 107 over a distance of 7.5f. Her last win came back in February in a Stakes Race in Oklahoma, likely looking for a third place finish again.
#5 SISSON’S MARK(ENG) 4/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=134378
15 Races – 5 Wins – 1,103,514$
Looking at her lifetime earnings, the most prominent challenger to the 2 top fillies, but she has struggled in her last two outings, finishing 4th in a Grade 2 and 5th in an preparing ALW race. She can’t afford such a poor effort. The 3yo Mark of Esteem filly was on top of the word, after winning the 8f Smackdown Grade 1 over 8f in July, beating top fillies like Vheissu. She was also one of the main challengers to Sabbath Point in the Triple Tiara, which she entered as the Iool Oaks winner, and finished 4th in the Bluegrass Oaks. Those results show her class, which topped out with the 108 she ran in the Smackdown race, given one of those top performances she can challenge for the win, rating her last races she will have no saying, choose your Sisson’s Mark showing up this week.
#6 SABBATH POINT(KY) 5/2
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=146452
14 Races – 6 Wins – 1,613,500$
The 3yo Seeking the Gold filly entered the Chestnut Stakes on top of the world, after winning both the Bluegrass Oaks and the Black Middle Flower Stakes, she came out like most first two leg winners, well short of the Chestnut Stakes, and well beaten, a 10th place, 89 speed finish showed she can’t stand 11f, which most expected, but a heads up for connections going for the immpossible triple Tiara. That defeat may have robbed her of some winning power, as she is surging for win No. 7 since that day, finishing 2nd in her last two races, however the 8f Equinics race showed it can just be a question of a short time, until she wins again. Scoring a 108 and finishing just beaten by Gold for the Grave, she is in line to win her next Grade 1, and keep her high lifetime earning mark building. Expect her going for the win today.
#7 MEAN GIRL(KY) 10/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=92407
16 Races – 3 Wins – 474,230$
Her low winning percentage shows the owners of the 3yo Came Home filly have a high aim, and most of the time run her in tough competition. All of her 3yo starts came in Graded racing, which prevented the 2yo Grade 2 winner from scoring in further races. Her lifetime high 101 was good for a 2nd place in a stakes race in July, apart from that, most races have been bitter flops, like the try on turf last time out. It showed she is not made for turf, and we better forget that start, however, mainly running sub 100 speeds even in Graded Racing don’t earn you a lot of cheques and respect, so I expect another out of the money finish today.
#8 MISCALCULATION(KY) 5/2
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=148868
10 Races – 8 Wins – 1,614, 120$
Being unbeaten for 7 races, 3 of them Grade 1s should tell a great story, and it does, Miscalculation has been one of the stars of this 3yo season, mainly tackling 7-7.5f races, she was beaten for the first time in the Cevian Stakes by Vheissu. Looking back at defeat, she ran one of her worst races in July, when she finished 4th in the restricted Smackdown Race, but still scoring a 104. If anyone doubted her strenght or her class to last longer than 7f, she denied every one in the check her Challenge Stakes in August, and owner restricted Stakes Race she ran the race of her life over todays distance of 8f , scoring a 109. To me that makes her a slight favourite over Sabbath point, whos high is a 108, but the bookies see them even, and at 5/2, this should be a two horse race, pick your winner.
#9 HOLY SOUP(AUS) 15/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=147019
17 Races – 3 Wins – 225,424$
Greywolf enters this 3yo lonhro filly as the last entry, and well, she likely will face an upside challenge. Her lifetime high is a 103 but that was back in April. It seems the number of races already has taken some energy out of Holy Soup, and she ran some bad flops recently, only if you look at the 13th Place in the Cevian Stakes, you see the cross reference to todays favourites, don’t expect her in the money.
The race is a 2 horse race, and everybody should sit tight come racetime Saturday, Miscalculation and Sabbath Point will let it fly, expect the winner to crack 110, and score a new lifetime high, they should chase each other into a great race, perhaps one, that will be spoken of a long time, pick your winner, I give a slight edge to Miscalculation.