Star Of The North and Black Tuesday head Michigan Market
Race 16 on this week’s
Let’s work through the formguide for this event:
The inside gate is the starting position for
From stall 2 will jump Surgewell as she lines up for the biggest challenge of her career. While she is very much unproven against the cream of the opposition, having run second and eighth at her only two Graded attempts, she does earn big ticks in both the distance and time columns. This is not the race I would choose to try and score the initial Graded win, especially given the current form of those top ten ranked runners, but lets concentrate on her efforts over the mile and a quarter. Nine times she’s tackled these conditions (plus once on an affected track, but we’ll dismiss that). How’s her record? Eight wins and a second, beaten a nose. Therein lies the quandary. The nose defeat was her first tilt at Graded racing. So it can hardly be called a failure. Let’s look at times. Elsewhere in this preview we’ve discussed the reasons for anticipating a sub 2.01 for this race. There are very few opponents here who have done, or look capable of, that time. This mare is one of those who can. There are plenty of reasons for connections to be confident. Surgewell is a daughter of Sadler’s Wells, based on Forty Squalls (Summer Squall / Forty Niner), a five times stakeswinner exclusively raced by breeder / trainer Isisbabe. She’ll get back a bit in the run, but probably not as far back as some of the more fancied runners. The quick early pace will suit and although I’m not game to tip her as a winning chance, a top run will come as no surprise.
Gate 3 is the starting position for Disasterpiece, a million dollar earning four year old whose form simply cannot be faulted. Boasting a 50% winning strike rate, she’s taken home the prize in five of her last six, but a closer look at her form in detail cannot but create enormous respect in the opposition camps. She’s had five career runs over the dirt mile and a quarter, and has been victorious in every one of them. And her two most recent outings saw her running against the elite in the G1-First State Distaff and the G1-Mayo Foundation at the Equinics. The last two occasions where she has tasted defeat were both at longer trips than this, and yet, three starts back, she ran third over a mile and a half in the G1-Smackdown. Desperado’s Mambo was one of the pair to best her that day, so the rematch here will create plenty of interest. A scratchbred daughter of Mineshaft / Halo / Deputy Minister, Disasterpiece does not appear to have an Achilles Heel. She’s likely to drop out early, but looks equally at home midfield or bringing up the rear, while she has, in the past, led all the way. The options are endless. Zewango1 can come to the races once again, full of confidence. She enjoys the services of a top hoop, and 8/1 represents enormous value for the second ranked mare in her division, lining up in such exemplary form.
Awaiting the starter in stall 4 we see To Live Is To Die, a filly with a good record over this trip, and with an excellent strike rate, having won nine from thirty. She has to rate as one of the great bargains of the sim, having changed hands following a $2000 claiming race in May 2007. She took a little more time to mature, and it was just twelve months ago, at her eighteenth run, that she posted her first triple digit speed rating. Connections would obviously have been thrilled with that allowance win, but even the most optimistic would hardly envision that, a year on, she’d have established herself as a genuine Grade 1 contender. Three starts back, in the slop, she failed by just a head to overhaul Black Tuesday in the G1-The It’s Almost Friday Handicap. A couple of ordinary runs since explain the price differential this weekend, but she’s proven that, on her day, she can mix it with the elite. To Live Is To Die is a scratchbred (and now very valuable broodmare prospect) daughter of Lemon Drop Kid / Deputy Minister / Bold Ruler. Owner / trainer 4gone has pulled off one of the achievements we all dream of, turning that cheap horse into a star. She hasn’t won in over six months, and will need a personal best to beat these, but she’s only a whisker shy of $400k in earnings, and an elevation in that sum won’t really surprise.
Drawn stall 5 is Seekhee, a filly who hasn’t gone home empty handed in fourteen starts since June last year, and who steps up to her biggest challenge this weekend, following a string of triple digit performances. Just a couple of months back, she could fairly be described as a handy allowance / stakes type runner, but her last three runs have elevated her beyond that, and it’s the run two starts back that we’ll focus on here. The G1-First State Distaff in July was her first ever tilt at Graded racing. Disasterpiece and Black Tuesday filled the exacta positions in that race, but this filly, with only two runners longer in the market, ran fourth in an impressive, career best effort. There is that lingering fact that she’s never won a black type race of any description, but she won’t be intimidated by the company she meets, and with a repeat of her best form, she can be expected to feature prominently. Seekhee is a daughter of Sakhee, the first progeny of Wild Seeker (Seeking The Gold / Wild Again), a three times stakes placed runner raced exclusively by owner / breeder Eliza. While I can’t see her turning the tables on the duo who bested her in that previous Grade 1, I’m not game enough to predict that she’ll end that exciting run of checks, especially if she sits in the front half of the field and several other contenders give away unrecoverable starts.
Starting from gate 6 we find War In Heaven. Winning form is good form, and you can’t ask for better current form than a Grade 1 victory at your most recent outing. She’d put in a couple of sub-par efforts prior to that, but bounced back with a vengeance in the G1-Go For The Gold Stakes, motoring home with better than a length to spare, and boosting her bank account to more than a million dollars. She’s been given a bit of a let up for this, that winning run having been achieved eight weeks ago. If we search for possible problems, the standout appears to be that, for some inexplicable reason, she simply doesn’t like the mile and a quarter. While that last victory was over nine furlongs, and she’s a Grade 1 winner over a mile and a half in the World Cup twelve months ago, she just doesn’t put her best foot forward over this trip. She won an allowance a little over two years ago, but since then, half a dozen runs, against various grades of opposition, have seen her unable to take home the trophy. Of course, the way the was running on last start may make this observation totally meaningless. War In Heaven is a five year old daughter of War Emblem, from Fourteen Screw (Nureyev / Secretariat). She’s by far the pick of the five progeny of her dam, herself a winner of six from nineteen. Waremblem8 would have been thrilled and relieved to see the rebound last start, and a repeat here, even if it’s only good enough for a top three finish, will secure the coveted “A” grading for her future stud career.
Barrier 7 is the starting gate for Isle Of Pigs, a five year old mare who has picked a tough assignment for her first foray into Grade 1 racing. On the positive side, she’s displayed a definite liking for this trip, having won ungraded stakes at each of her last two starts over the mile and a quarter. Her overall strike rate is also very impressive. She’s been first home in eleven of her thirty one starts, so she knows where the wire is. It’s when we look into her graded history that the worries begin to surface. She’s only ever lined up twice in Graded races, for an eleventh of fourteen in a Grade 3, and a well held eighth of thirteen in a Grade 2. This race has more than it’s share of established Graded quality runners, so I feel she’s facing a monumental task in this event. Isle Of Pigs is a scratchbred daughter of Point Given / Nureyev / Secretariat. I’d expect her to settle midfield, or perhaps a tad further off the pace. She’ll need a substantial personal best to be in the mix when the race gets serious. Trainer / breeder Salamander has had a lot of success with this mare, racing her at her correct level and she’s certainly earned the right to mix it with the higher ranked opposition. But I’m sure this race will be run sub 2.01, and that may be a time just a tad beyond her.
Gate 8 is the starting position for Dance Of Death, a four year old filly who, like many of her opponents here, is looking to secure that first, elusive Grade 1 victory. No stranger to racing at the highest level, this will be the fifth time she’s faced the starter in Grade 1 challenges. Therein lie both the positives and negatives for her chances this weekend. The fact that she’s been unable to win in all four previous tries is of some concern, but a couple of those efforts prove that she’s not out of her depth at this standard. Back in May she ran third in the G1-The It’s Almost Friday Handicap, but safely held, she finished eight lengths astern of Black Friday and To Live Is To Die. Next start, again at the elite level and over a mile and a half, she ran fifth in the G1-Smackdown, but was only a length inferior to the victor. Desperado’s Mambo and Disasterpiece both finished ahead of her there, but not by much. I can’t help but feel she prefers those longer trips, but with her last five wins coming at nine and ten furlongs, it’s hard to argue with the stats. Dance Of Death is a daughter of Mineshaft, based on Last Minute Ticket (Deputy Minister / Unbridled) a lightly raced winner of just one from thirteen. Breeder / trainer Sdmf8 would probably like to see his entry settle midfield, well positioned for a late charge.
Star Of The North, drawn 9, has earned her position as the nineteenth ranked older female with a couple of recent victories at Grade 2 level. In fact, her career boasts four wins at that penultimate grading, making her a more than worthy participant in this standard of contest. She does have a couple of significant questions to answer this week, however, and she’s chosen a very tough assignment in which to answer them. This is her first ever tilt at the mile and a quarter. Despite invariably running out her races strongly, she’s once been set a nine and a half furlong race, but never further. The other question concerns her Grade 1 attempts, but again there is a bright light at the end of that tunnel. Two of her last three races have been at this top level, both over a mile. On both occasions she ran fourth, and both times she was making solid ground at the end of the race. These facts have not escaped the attention of the oddsmakers, who have installed her as equal favorite in a wide betting race. Star Of The North is a scratchbred daughter of Seeking The Gold / Northern Dancer / Seattle Slew, bred and trained by Snappa5. She’ll settle down the back with the other fancied runners. If the bookies were a tad more generous I’d be very tempted, but in this field of proven performers, with those couple of queries, I’ll declare her a definite chance, but a somewhat risky investment
Go Ireland lines up in barrier 10. When Jerry makes a rare trip across the pond, there has to be a good reason. And four consecutive victories in European black type races is obviously a good enough reason to venture to where dirt reigns supreme. There is plenty to like about this filly. A bold front runner, three of her last four wins have not been just wins, they’ve been demolition jobs. She’s going to encounter no opposition up front, and so she’ll be able to set whichever degree of fast tempo she chooses, despite the fact that she hasn’t been blessed with a rider from the top of the crop. Her presence here is really going to sort the wheat from the chaff, as only the strongest of the opposition will be any hope of maintaining a reasonable position, while leaving enough in the tank for a late challenge. There are a couple of runners here, proven Grade 1 performers, who can run the ten furlongs in 2.01. With the swift early sectionals likely here, that time could be well and truly shattered. Go Ireland is a daughter of Refuse To Bend from Franks Footballs (Mr. Prospector / Auction Ring), obviously not a Sabbath homebred herself, but a producer of two earlier black type performers. A real advantage for this filly is the fact that her main dangers are all likely to drop out. If she can gain and maintain that customary huge gap, she’s going to set the closers a monumental task.
Gate 11 is the starting position for Desperado’s Mambo, a winner of ten of her twenty five starts, and who drops back to the shortest trip she’s faced in twenty three starts. Not since her second start has she faced a race of less than eleven furlongs. That has to be a question mark in a field studded with top level performers who live and breathe the mile and a quarter. She skipped across the ocean last start for a turf run in the G1-Brisbane Distaff and put in the worst run we’ve seen since her very early days. Best to forget that effort and concentrate on the start previous, which was the best run of her career. In her second tilt at Grade 1 competition (the first being a forgettable two miler) she was beaten a nose in the mile and a half G1-Smackdown. She beat Disasterpiece home in that event, and if she can do that again here, she won’t be far away from winning. Four starts earlier she won a Grade 3 in
Drawn in gate 12 we find Black Tuesday. A winner of thirteen of her twenty three starts, that stat in itself indicates that she wins more times than she doesn’t. And those searching for patterns have another interesting fact to consider this week. In her entire career, she’s never lost three consecutive races. Staring down that possibility this week, it would be a brave punter indeed who expected it to occur now. She boasts three Grade 1 wins over this trip in her resume and would have added another two starts back, had the jockey gone a stride earlier in the First State Distaff back in July. Giving the leaders nearly fifteen lengths that day, she absolutely flew in the stretch to fail by a neck to collar Disasterpiece. Black Tuesday is a four year old daughter of Storm Cat, based on the Graded placed King Of Queens The Second (Kingmambo / Sadler’s Wells). She only needs to collect prizemoney to send her winnings over the two million dollar mark, but Fairhaven2 has every right to expect her to be well in the hunt for the major share. She’ll give backers plenty of worries as she shows virtually no interest in the first half of the event. With plenty of speed up front, she may not want to let the leader get too far ahead, but she’s sure to have the crowd on their feet as she unleashes that finishing burst.
Reefer Madness, drawn 13 is another quality scratchbred from the Super conglomerate. She can fairly be described as something of a specialist over this trip. Although she’s only run the mile and a quarter four times from her thirty five runs, she’s won three of those four, and comes into this off a win in a strong Delpenn Stakes at the identical trip. Of some concern are the facts concerning class. She’s only attempted Grade 1 competition on one previous occasion, and she didn’t flatter when seventh in The Hummingbird Sings, just over two years ago. That’s a worry on two fronts. It’s the only time she’s been beaten on a rain affected track, and it’s the only time she’s been beaten over this distance on the dirt. However: to the good bits. She’s won a couple of Grade 3’s and has run second in a Grade 2, so she’s clearly not without her share of ability. Super24 put this mare together using the blood of Mineshaft / Fappiano / Private Account. She needs less than 60k to chalk up the million dollars in earnings, and although I can’t see her running the time required to beat all of her more fancied rivals, it will not be at all surprising if Reefer Madness does enough to reach the magical seven figures.
Gate 14 sees Mister Rabbit line up in what would ordinarily be the outside stall. The rank outsider of the field, she really cannot be accorded much hope in this star studded field. Ranked at 329 in this division, she lines up against three of the top ten, and she’s one of only three starters ranked outside the top one hundred. Looking to put her form into perspective, this race is almost certain to be over in less than two minutes and one second. That’s about six lengths quicker than her personal best. While several of her opposition are multiple Grade 1 winners, this mare has never previously contested any sort of Graded event. Mister Rabbit is a five year old daughter of Testa Rossa, based on Little Bee Bee (Belong To Me / Polish Navy), a triple stakes winner. It’s possible that she’ll show a bit of toe in the early stages of the event, but Breeder / trainer Larsonistu will be most unlikely to be showing much excitement once the racing gets serious
From the outside stall jumps Rose Crown comes into this off a last start victory in an ungraded stake. She gets a tick in the time column, having won a couple of races over this trip in 2.01 and change. She’ll need a length or two better than that this week, but she has established the ability to produce it on her day. Where she does face a question mark is in the class arena. She’s only faced Graded quality opposition twice previously, for a fifth of ten in a Grade 2, and a well beaten eleventh in the Equinics Mayo Foundation, a race where Disasterpiece,
Summary and Selections:
I really can’t go past the established Grade 1 performers here. While several runners can put in very good efforts at a lower level, often running the types of times we expect this weekend, the top ranked runners consistently run similar or better times, while winning races at the highest level
Disasterpiece to win. Top form at the top level….And that price! 8/1 across the board forever
Black Tuesday for second. She’ll look no hope with half a mile to go, but will storm home
War In Heaven for third. Just because I’d like to see her get that A
And I won’t be surprised if I live to regret leaving Go Ireland out of the picks.