G3 – Django Cup

The EURO residency sponsored this race in Belgium and it has attracted a nice crowd of competitors. One G2 winner, three G3 winners and six stakes winners (along with an allowance winner that placed in a graded race). Eight of the eleven entries are listed at single digit odds. Lets take a look at them…

1 – MERMIDON 13/1

This colt sired by LOPE DE VEGA (a top 80 sire over the past 4 seasons) started off its career in a GR Simster owner restricted stakes win and then went on to win two back to back non-restricted stakes as a 3yo. Debuted after a 3 month break as a 4yo with a speed number of 111 at 6.5f. One of the longer odds in the race, this could be a good pick for trifecta bets. Can he close over the shorter distance?

2 – BONITERO 8/1

One of two GOLDEN HORN (GB) sired entries, this horse has had poor runs in its most recent runs at 7f and 8f. its last three wins were stakes at 7f and 5f as a 5yo. A short race might be the shake up needed for this horse.

3 – PERIL THE FIRST 5/1

Right behind the favorite, this horse out of G1 winner IN HONOR OF ABBY has put up some great speed figures (recently 117 at 7f stakes). Appears to be a consistent closer that has not closed its recent 7f races. Its last race below 6.5f was a second place early in its 3yo career at 5.5f. It has one route as an allowance, I would be curious to see this horse run at 8f in better company. Also curious to see if it can close in a shorter length race like this one.

4 – TETE KLENVED 7/1 – Best Rank : # 17

After a late start as a 2yo and early in the 3yo campaign this horse was gelded. After a six month break it came back to a 103 speed figure and reeled off a 4 win streak (ending with a stakes win as a 4yo). Has a history of setting the pace. Recently ran 114sf in a 6.5f and has never run a 5f race. This one looks to be a contender if he is able to maintain early dominance.

5 – WAKE UP MAGGIE 4/1 – Best Rank : # 49

The favorite of the race, this horse is a front runner that has fallen off fairly hard in recent 6f races. Its most recent speed figure peaked at 115 in a second place showing in a 6.5f stakes race. With a much shorter race this horse should be in the mix, but last year it also fell off the lead in a similar G3 5f race.

6 – DARK OBJECT 16/1

The official longshot. After six straight 5.5f stakes races (one win and two 2nd places), this horse steps down to 5f. The horse has not approached its 107sf from over a year ago. It will be a very tough race for this one.

7 – BRILLIANT PLAY 8/1

Claimed in a summer of 2021 good dirt race, this horse continued on to a 5 win streak with a mix of claim and allowance races. After putting in a couple of 2nd place performances during the summer of ’22, this horse was turned to focus on 4.5f and 5f sprints: four 1st place and two 2nd place finishes (along with one failure to show in a 5.5f). Hit a speed number of 109 twice during these most recent races. This one seems trained and focused on the shorter race lengths.

8 – ARYA’S DAGGER 6/1 – Best Rank : # 7

The only filly in the race (and the second sired by GOLDEN HORN (GB)), she has a legit resume for this race. Out of G1 winner ARYA’S STORM, she has been running 6f or below since January 2021 with a mix of open races. Her last run at 5f against the boys was a G2 win back in May ’22. Should be in the mix.

9 – COOL CHEST 7/1

Some really good finishes in graded company (most recently 109sf in a 6f G3), this horse has had some trouble securing the win. This horse has solid experience at 5f, but no wins at the stakes level (Seven races with 3 wins).

10 – JUSTICE DELAYED 15/1

The latest TWICE OVER (GB) sired horse to gain a stakes race win, this horse has a mix of good performances in both route and sprint races. He is coming off of a 8f allowance race with a 107sf. Has not been able to finish with a show or higher in a stakes race since Feb 2022. As one of the longer shots in the race, its not likely that he will be a factor here.

11 – TETE KARG 7/1

One of the most impressive records in the race. On a seven race win streak, it is coming off of a 114sf victory at 6.5f. The race before it was able to close to finish the win in the G3 at 106sf. This looks like it might be one of the better fields it has faced quality-wise. Will it be able to maintain the win streak? The third G3 winner out of TETE APPROVAL makes me think – yes!

Some likely placements:

1st place contenders: 4, 5, 7, 11

2nd place contenders: 1, 4, 5, 7, 8, 11

3rd place contenders: 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 11

My superfecta pick: 11-7-4-5

Maybe a trifecta with 11-7 and put 4, 5, 8 in the third spot?

I especially like BRILLIANT PLAY for this race – having won in a 5f Stakes going into a 5f G3 is a big lift imho, but not sure he can over take the streak of TETE KARG.

I noticed a number of fading front runners during this review that don’t have a long history of 5f races. Is this a blindspot in the sim? It might be interesting to build a sponsored sprint series if there is a short fall in the schedule.