14 Duel for $3M in Surrey

King Geoff and Queen Beth Emerald Stakes

by AFC

12f turf 3 and up

It’s been a while since I’ve done this, so I suppose I can expect some sort of publishing disaster, but what the hell. May as well give it a whirl. Besides, since I’m locked down in quarantine with Covid-19, I may as well do something quasi-productive, right?

The King Geoff and Queen Beth Emerald Stakes is one of the biggest out there for three year old and up long distance turfers. It begins the summer and fall campaign for many, which will culminate in the Ark or the BB Turf. You’re likely to see some of the runners in here in one (or both?) of those races.  The field contains seven Grade 1 winners and six million dollar earners, and the top ranked long turf horse has shown up as well. It should be an exciting race. The field….

PP#1 EMPIRE OF KINGS (Galileo-Kingmambo-Empire Maker) 6-1 The five year old bay from the legendary kingab barn recently made the foray into graded stakes company, and has not disappointed. His last out was a crushing win in the G2 Kinsho Cho Classic with a whopping 118 figure, which represents a lifetime top. Prior to that, he was placed in two consecutive Grade 1 contests, as well as a Grade 3 with figures in the 112-115 range. Going off as the ML favorite, there’s one huge question for him to answer- can he carry his customary late charge 12 furlongs? He’s never been further than a mile and a quarter, so that issue looms large. A vulnerable favorite? Perhaps.

PP#2 GOLDEN JULY (New Approach-Golden Horn-Dansili)  11-1  Four year old gelding has impressed of late, and seemed to answer any questions about the distance with a sharp score in the G1 Karakuza Kinen Cup a month back. He took to the softer ground there like a duck takes to water, storming home late to win by two lengths with a lifetime best 118 figure. I think the distance questions were answered, but this is a furlong longer…..that either gives him more time to get rolling, or means he craps out late. He’s been on a nice run of late, with placings in the G1 Manha Manha Challenge and Mr. Met Cap sandwiching a stomping of the field in the G1 Sydney Cup. He may prefer it a bit softer than he’ll see this weekend, but with the advance weather forecast calling for a good shot at off turf for the upcoming Ark, you can expect him to make some noise in this division down the road. Interesting to note that while he’s been a handful at 10 panels, his top race was his last at 11f. In with a shot.

PP#3 KUMALA PANTAI (Ulysses-Theatrical-Monsun) 8-1 Five year old bay has danced in a lot of big ones over the past year, including a trip in this very race last year, one he’d probably rather forget, when he was a well beaten 8^th. He’s been a bit up and down since, showing only one win this season in the G2 Sandy Ray Handicap at 12f, where he dropped a 116 figure. Still, there are some concerning signs of losing consistency beginning to show. He’ll have to be at his best- perhaps his lifetime best- to figure in here. Another who will do his best running from off the pace.

PP#4 FB SAXON (Saxon Warrior-Dansili-Kingmambo) 25-1  Famous Frankster takes a shot. This four year old, with only 12 starts to his career, certainly has room to improve, but can he improve this much? Top figure of 113 came at 8.5f, and his last start was a total disaster, getting crushed at 12 f in a G3. Perhaps it was the off track? Frankster better hope so, and then some. He does have a victory at 11.5f in a listed event two races back, but that 111 is not likely to get the job done here. Looking elsewhere.

PP#5 WESTPAC EMPEROR (Fastnet Rock-Galileo-Kingmambo) 10-1 Four year old with only 13 career starts looks like a fat overlay to me. He’s been red freakin’ hot lately, with four wins and a third from his last five starts, and he’s now in his best form ever. His last two have been emphatic scores in the G3 Great Beer Cap at 11f, and he answered all distance questions with a similarly impressive victory LTO in the G1 Milan Grand Prix at 12f. Both came with 118 figures, and he was distancing himself from the field at the wire. History shows that wins such as those indicate there’s more to give in the tank, and if so, he’s going to be a real handful in here. He likes to sit close to the pace, so he’s likely to get first run on the early leaders, and has shown that he can go wire to wire if he so chooses. The catbird’s seat is a nice place to be…..in with a real shot at a fat price.

PP#6 YOU HAVE NO CHOICE (Dubawi-Sadler’s Wells-Deep Impact) 10-1 Talk about a meteoric rise, here it is. This guy was stuck in allowance ranks, bouncing back and forth between dirt and turf until Given tried him going long on turf. Then, the proverbial light went on. He’s only had 10 starts and is already a G1 winner, stomping one of the favorites in this race in the process. Since moving to 12f on grass, he’s run one big one after another, going from NW4L conditions to G1 winner with figs of 116/119/120. LTO was a disappointing effort, albeit on off going.  Has yet to lose at 12f, and he likes to sit close, if not on the lead. He will, at some point, say “catch me if you can!” If he goes back to his firm turf form, it’s very possible nobody will have an answer for him.

PP#7 STREET NOVELLIST (Novellist-Street Cry-Danzig) 12-1 Four year old scratch bred has rounded into the best form of his career, but still doesn’t have a big win to show for it. Lost a heartbreaker two back in the G3 The Honey Do at this distance when his late charge just failed to get up with a 117 figure. LTO, he tried some beasts in G1 company, and while he did not disgrace himself, he could only manage a fourth place finish in the G1 Milan Grand Prix with a 114. He’s lightly raced, and it would seem his best is just beginning to show….dangerous if it sets up properly.

PP#8 SOMETIMES EVIL (Deep Impact-Montjeu-Kingmambo) 6-1. The co-morning line favorite hails from the always evil texasace barn, and if history is any indication, he doesn’t play around when the big races come up. Winner of nearly $4M in his 20 race career, he showed no signs of tailing off LTO with a facile 5 ½ lengths score in the G2 The Princess of Whales with a 116. He’s also shown he’s capable of much faster runs, what with a sensational 121 while taking down the 13f G1 The Winter Cap, and a downright dirty beat when second in the G1 Sand Castle Turf with a 119.  He does, to an extent, evoke memories of one of texasace’s all time greats (and one of the all time Sim greats) Horseshoe Bay with his late, mow them all down style. Of concern….he’s starting to do the yo-yo routine: one huge race followed by a down race. He’s going to have to break that pattern to win this race. That said, it’s hard to discount this barn in a race of this magnitude.

PP#9 ROCK KRONOS (Fastnet Rock-AP Indy-Sadler’s Wells) 11-1. Here’s one of the big mysteries in the field. 10 starts, five wins, including one in the G2 The Carlsbad Lessons with a scorching 121 at this very distance two starts back. And, he’s seven years old? What the hell? Out of the HOF mare Dynawells, who was a Breeder’s Bowl F&M Turf winner, as well as the dam of another G1 winner, one wonders why he’s just ramping up at the ripe old age of seven. He’s proven he can run fast enough to win here. His last out was a bit of a downer, a fourth place finish in the G1 Saint Cloud Grand Prix where he faded late and ran a 109 number. How the Sim factors age into the wear and tear equation is one of the great mysteries of our time. What’s not so uncertain is where he’s likely to be at the beginning of this race. You’ll likely find him winging it out front. His PP’s show that if he makes the early lead, he’s one tough customer. On the flip side, if he doesn’t…..well, that tends to end up a stinkfest.

PP#10 DOWNDRAFT (Galileo-Kingmambo-AP Indy) 7-1 Co-second choice is another who seemingly woke up out of a long slumber and turned into a beast. Mired in NW3L conditions for a long time, he stretched out to 12 furlongs and went on a tear. Last four races? 117/118/119/118. Included among those were a G1 win in the New Zealand Derby, a listed stakes win and a second LTO to You Have No Choice in the G1 The 5 Series. Comes in off a three month plus break, freshening him for the summer-fall campaign (I hope). Full brother to four other G1 winners, out of HOF mare Lufthansa Heist- all by Galileo. Will come from off the pace, but he’s gonna have to run the race of his life to get up against these.

PP#11 VARIN’S AXE (War Front-Kingmambo-Sharpen Up) 14-1 The top ranked long turfer goes off at 14-1? A testament to the difficulty of this field. Out of the Evil Empire lenny barn, he’s won over $5M in his early 12 race career, and three of his last four W’s have been in G1 company, including his last two races. So? How the hell is he 14-1? Well, quite simply, his career best 115 isn’t likely to figure in here, and against You Have No Choice and Downdraft, he got obliterated in the G1 New Zealand Derby. So, there are questions to answer. He’s got G1 wins against lesser company, a testament to Lenny’s ability to spot him, but he’s wading into very deep water here. On the flip side, after only 12 races, it’s entirely possible we haven’t seen his best. He’ll need it to figure in this race.

PP#12 TETE IMMACOLATA (Mastercraftsman-Heart’s Cry-High Chapparal)  9-1  Five year old roan gelding will be easy to spot. He’s in the best form of his life recently, save for one race clearly beyond his distance limitations at 16f two back. In his last three tries at 12f, he’s run figs of 115/115/116, getting a G1 placing in the Equinics and a third in the G1 Milan Grand Prix where his furious late charge saw him make up some nine lengths in the final three furlongs. Still, he wound up three lengths short there, but he sure can light the afterburners when prompted. Still hunting for that elusive G1 win, he’ll be coming late, but will it be enough?

PP#13 ONE LOVECRAFT (Snitzel-Deep Impact-Sea The Stars)  12-1  Yet another deep closer, his form seems to suggest that this may be too short for him. He’s run some nice numbers, but his best have come at 13-14f. In his two graded stakes tries at 12f, he just hasn’t been able to muster enough to figure in the outcome. Doesn’t mean he can’t fire a career best and get up here, but it looks like it’s going to have to completely fall apart for him to figure.

PP#14 NGARURORO (Australia-Montjeu-Danzig) 19-1 Best I can figure is that this guy is going to try to give some early pace pressure to set up Sometimes Evil. He can run on the front end, although his preferred style is to sit back in the first pack after the leader. He won a G2 two back, but he is in need of some serious improvement in his figures to make a dent here. Lifetime best of 112 in that G2 win is surrounded by efforts in the 104-108 range, which don’t figure in here. If someone is going to apply pressure to Rock Kronos, this guy may be it. How he stays on is anyone’s guess.

PICKS:

YOU HAVE NO CHOICE I’m willing to discard his last as an off track misadventure. Has a gigantic upside, and should run huge here.

WESTPAC EMPEROR Has been running giant figs of late and his last two facile wins suggest there’s more to give.

DOWNDRAFT Consistent lately, but comes up just short in the lane.

Good luck to all!