GRADE-2 CORNHUSKER HANDICAP – PREVIEW
Iowa (IA)
Saturday, June 18, 2022 — 2:30:00 PM EST | Race ID : 2802342
The Cornhusker Handicap
Grade II / Group 2*CPU – Purse : $375,000
Restricted to 3 Year Olds and Older
9 Furlongs | ~1800 Meters | One Mile and One Eighth Fast Dirt
UNDERLAY / OVERLAY RACE STUDY (thru 06/17/2022):
| total races | 121 | total horses | 1696 | ||||
| underlays | 426 | wins | 35 | places | 38 | show | 30 |
| win % | 8.216% | place % | 8.920% | ||||
| avg win pay | $16.56 | avg plc pay | $8.79 | ||||
| win ROI $ | -$0.64 | place ROI $ | -$0.49 | ||||
| overlays | 484 | wins | 53 | places | 46 | show | 41 |
| win % | 10.950% | place % | 9.504% | ||||
| avg win pay | $26.81 | avg plc pay | $12.65 | ||||
| win ROI $ | $0.94 | place ROI $ | $0.59 | ||||
| non-select | 786 | wins | 33 | places | 37 | show | 50 |
| win % | 4.198% | place % | 4.707% | ||||
| avg win pay | $30.45 | avg plc pay | $13.75 | ||||
| win ROI $ | -$0.72 | place ROI $ | -$0.78 |
Here’s the capsule breakdown for the 14 entries:
| 1 | 38 | SNOWY WEEK | PACE | 11.47% | SPEED | 6.89% | CLASS | 1.16% | BET VALUE | 338.60% |
| trainer | mises | RANK | 1 | RANK | 7 | RANK | 12 | RANK | 1 |
EARLY POSITION – ON OR NEAR THE LEAD
comment … there’s a good chance that trainer mises 4-year-old colt SNOWY WEEK will manage to get the early lead in the Cornhusker and if he does that makes him a viable contender despite the fact this is his first crack at stake competition. SNOWY WEEK has won 6 of his 12 starts and finished in the top-3 11 times (91%) so he shouldn’t be taken lightly. His last win against a short field of 4 State Bred runners is hard to gauge, but his 9 furlong dirt win against 9 Open Allowance runners gives him a degree of validity, especially given the fact he produced a nice 113.991 speed figure winning the event. Given the fact there’s always the potential wire to wire threat, his 38-1 odds are very generous, beware dangerous early speed!
| 2 | 6 | JAMISON AGAIN | PACE | 5.28% | SPEED | 8.13% | CLASS | 16.14% | BET VALUE | 76.83% |
| trainer | james22 | RANK | 10 | RANK | 6 | RANK | 2 | RANK | 9 |
EARLY POSITION – REAR MID PACK
comment … with 3 Grade-1 Stake wins and over $5 million in lifetime earnings, there’s no question about JAMISON AGAIN’S ability to win the Cornhusker. The only question is current form, 2 starts back JAMISON AGAIN ran a “clinker” finishing 19th in the $6 million purse Grade-1 Sand Castle Classic. Last race he ran an even paced 8th of 14, making a very minor show of life, stretch move, but never really reached contention. JAMISON AGAIN has ran 3-121 speed figures in the last year so if he’s fit, he’ll certainly contend in the Cornhusker. His 6-1 odds are a bit light considering his recent form but possibly the step down to Grade-2 level will help him regain his top form, good chance on best!
| 3 | 22 | CHARGE THE FLAMES | PACE | 10.47% | SPEED | 6.15% | CLASS | 3.45% | BET VALUE | 216.05% |
| trainer | redhill24 | RANK | 4 | RANK | 11 | RANK | 8 | RANK | 3 |
EARLY POSITION – LEAD PACK
comment … it took trainer redhill24’s 4-year-old gelding CHARGE THE FLAMES, 8 tries to get his first conditioned Allowance nw-2L victory, but it seems that lit a fire under the son of sire Take Charge Indy. CHARGE THE FLAMES rattled off 2 more Allowance wins, so he’s coming into the Cornhusker off 3 consecutive wins, he improved his speed figure in each win, his last in a 9-furlong event was 111.556, a career best. He’s going to be near the front early and we know he’s fit, so 22-1 odds is a cause for enthusiasm, improving and fit for first Stake try!
| 4 | 5 | THE KINGFISH | PACE | 11.35% | SPEED | 8.87% | CLASS | 12.76% | BET VALUE | 90.95% |
| trainer | champions8 | RANK | 2 | RANK | 3 | RANK | 3 | RANK | 7 |
EARLY POSITION – ON OR NEAR THE LEAD
comment … in the first 23 races of his career, trainer champions8’s THE KINGFISH had accomplished no less than 10 Allowance wins but despite 6 tries, a stake win had eluded him. Finally in his last start, THE KINGFISH put it all together, winning the Grade-3 National Rider Club, recording a career best 121.652 speed figure. Coming off that career best race certainly makes THE KINGFISH a primary contender, he’s speedy and will challenge the early pace, possibly even setting it. He’s the morning line favorite at 5-1 and while they’re not exiting odds they’re pretty fair, there’s a bit of a stamina concern as 9 furlongs looks like the edge of THE KINGFISH’S energy limit, fast, fit, may not look back!
| 5 | 8 | SON OF THE NILE | PACE | 10.75% | SPEED | 6.37% | CLASS | 12.05% | BET VALUE | 120.97% |
| trainer | kimugle1 | RANK | 3 | RANK | 8 | RANK | 4 | RANK | 5 |
EARLY POSITION – ON OR NEAR THE LEAD
comment … trainer kimugle1’s SON OF THE NILE is another runner who may challenge the early pace, although he has already proven he can also successfully track the pace. In his best Grade-2 effort, The Scrub, ran back in January 2021, he tracked the early speed in 3rd, 4 lengths off the pace and just missed wearing down the early pacesetter by a head. He scored his only graded stake win back in May 2020, the Grade-3 Jacob Hirsch, but his only win since then is a conditioned Allowance nw-2yr. SON OF THE NILE finished 3rd in both of his last Graded Stake efforts, but he faded late in both races. He’s fair odds at 8-1 and usually can be counted on to give 100%, but he’s in tough here and needs to step his game up a level, chance on his best!
| 6 | 18 | PRUT RIVER | PACE | 2.66% | SPEED | 6.33% | CLASS | 1.45% | BET VALUE | 67.29% |
| trainer | stormboot2 | RANK | 13 | RANK | 9 | RANK | 11 | RANK | 10 |
EARLY POSITION – NEAR THE REAR
comment … PRUT RIVER was having an excellent 3-year-old campaign, winning the Grade-2 Swamps Stakes and finishing no worse than 4th in 4 other Graded Stake efforts. Trainer stormbbot2 then entered PRUT RIVER in the 10-furlong Grade-1 Breeder Bowl Classic and PRUT RIVER never got in stride and finished 16th of 20, he followed that with 2 more graded efforts and finished 14th and 6th. He showed some signs of life late in the Grade-2 Scrub Stake and so he was then entered and won a conditioned Allowance nw1-9mos. Is that enough to revitalize PRUT RIVER and jumpstart his 4-year-old season, possibly but it’s a tall order and even at 18-1 he’s an underlay given his recent performances, he’ll be running hard late so a top-5 finish looks like a realistic goal!
| 7 | 15 | ZAP THE PULPIT | PACE | 9.92% | SPEED | 6.17% | CLASS | 1.06% | BET VALUE | 113.82% |
| trainer | desertdog27 | RANK | 5 | RANK | 10 | RANK | 13 | RANK | 6 |
EARLY POSITION – LEAD PACK
comment … first the positive, in his 2nd last race ZAP THE PULPIT won a 9 1/2 furlong Open Stake registering a career best 117.373 speed rating, that rating makes him a Bonafide challenger and it showed that he has plenty of stamina to handle 9 furlongs. Unfortunately that’s the only race on his 15 race record that shows that kind of promise. He’s a bit inconsistent as his 3 wins and 50% in the money finishes would imply. His last race the Grade-3 National Rider Club may be a good indicator, he tracked the pace well in 5th for 7 furlongs but faded a bit late and wound up 9th, moving up in class today it’s easy to see a similar result. His odds at 15-1 seem fair but he’ll really have to improve to contend for this win, tough spot unless there’s a form turnaround!
| 8 | 11 | BLACKENED MY EYE | PACE | 3.75% | SPEED | 2.22% | CLASS | 0.96% | BET VALUE | 19.81% |
| trainer | minglewood | RANK | 11 | RANK | 14 | RANK | 14 | RANK | 14 |
EARLY POSITION – REAR PACK
comment … trainer minglwood’s 6-year-old horse, BLACKENED MY EYE is the salty old veteran in the field, having entered the starting gate 31 times. The highlight of his career was in July 2020, when he finished a close up 2nd in the Grade-2 San Dimas registering a career best 119.601 speed rating on an off-track. But, that was almost 2 years ago, since then his best race was winning an 8 1/2 furlong State Bred Allowance, also on an off-track, he’s never won a Stake at any level in 13 career tries and in last years Grade-2 Cornhusker, BLACKENED MY EYE finished 14th. He looks like he still has a few good races left, but doubtful they’re at the Graded Stake level. At 11-1 odds he certainly not attractive at the wager window, trying to beat father time and that’s a tall order!
| 9 | 9 | DECLARE YOUR BAGS | PACE | 6.23% | SPEED | 11.12% | CLASS | 27.25% | BET VALUE | 204.69% |
| trainer | crash99 | RANK | 9 | RANK | 1 | RANK | 1 | RANK | 4 |
EARLY POSITION – MID PACK
comment … trainer crash99 bought DECLARE YOUR BAGS out of a $60K claiming nw-2L event, tried him on the dirt without immediate success, dropping him into a $20K claimer. To his credit after offering him for a loss at $20K trainer crash99 raised him in class and turned DECLARE YOUR BAGS into an Allowance winner and in February, he became a Graded Stake winner, winning the Grade-3 Khartoum Challenge II. DECLARE YOUR BAGS produced a fantastic 123.379 speed figure. He was then entered in the 10-furlong Grade-1 California Handicap where DECLARE YOUR BAGS ran a game 3rd with a minor bounce of 10 points off his speed figure. Last race DECLARE YOUR BAGS was entered in the Grade-2 Oaktree Handicap, shaving 8 more speed points. Is the bounce cycle complete, if not for his last race DECLARE YOUR BAGS odds would be 6-1 instead of the 9-1 he is for the Cornhusker. He’s definitely a value bet if you think he can reverse that bounce, I think he can, has the ability if his form’s on point!
| 10 | 9 | NOT MY UNCLE BEN | PACE | 2.29% | SPEED | 8.55% | CLASS | 3.34% | BET VALUE | 55.14% |
| trainer | mesaverde | RANK | 14 | RANK | 5 | RANK | 9 | RANK | 11 |
EARLY POSITION – NEAR THE REAR
comment … the first 15 races of NOT MY UNCLE BEN’S career showed him to be a decent allowance runner, he had 2 wins but after he ascended to the allowance nw-4L level, he finished out of the money and was switched to the turf and then gelded. After 7 straight out of the money runs at that level he was dropped into a $25K claimer and enter trainer mesaverde. After claiming NOT MY UNCLE BEN, he finished a solid 3rd and the finally on his 9th try won at the nw-4L condition, he was immediately moved up to Allowance nw-5L and not only won but recorded a career high 120.526 speed rating. NOT MY UNCLE BEN then followed with a respectable 4th in his first crack at an Open Stake and last race, eliminated that barrier by winning the 9-furlong Run Buda Dirt Route, charging home from 10th to 1st. He’s 9-1 in the Cornhusker and while those odds seem too short, it’s hard to not root for a runner that come that far so quickly, hats off to mesaverde, shades of Silky Sullivan, overachiever!
| 11 | 23 | DUELING ETIQUETTE | PACE | 8.90% | SPEED | 8.72% | CLASS | 6.12% | BET VALUE | 277.42% |
| trainer | mtkswagger | RANK | 6 | RANK | 4 | RANK | 6 | RANK | 2 |
EARLY POSITION – MID PACK
comment … DUELING ETIQUETTE is an interesting entry today, he likes to stalk the pace, usually placed 2nd thru 4th early and he’s sort of a “grinder”, meaning he doesn’t fade early and if the early speed falters he will take advantage. Looking over his past performances reveals that 9 furlongs may be right at the edge of his stamina threshold, as he seems to slightly fade late. DUELING ETIQUETTE has finished in the money in 9 of his 12 career starts, so even though he’s had that pattern in 10 of his 12 races, he usually holds together and still produces a good finish. His last race the Grade-3 Soupy Sails Classic, DUELING ETIQUETTE finished 2nd as a 29-1 shot, but still had a slight fade late. He’s 23-1 and a consistent runner, making him a value bet, I especially like his top-5 chances, don’t discount chances!
| 12 | 7 | PADDACK | PACE | 6.73% | SPEED | 9.12% | CLASS | 5.26% | BET VALUE | 83.05% |
| trainer | peeps2 | RANK | 8 | RANK | 2 | RANK | 7 | RANK | 8 |
EARLY POSITION – MID PACK
comment … after starting 2022 with a pair of decent but unspectacular Graded Stake efforts, trainer peeps2’s PADDACK finally put it all together and won the Grade-3 Billy Donald in May. PADDACK has pretty much moved up the class ratings in step ladder fashion, winning his conditioned Allowances and then a pair of 9-furlong Open Stake and last race another rung up at the Grade-3 level. All of his best wins are at 9 furlongs so that seems to be his “sweet” spot as far as distance is concerned. He’s getting support on the morning line listed at 7-1, they’re not terrible odds, but not exciting given the fact he’s facing 4 runners that have won at Grade-2 already, but he’s fit and in form, so climbing another class wrung wouldn’t be a big surprise, movin’ on up!
| 13 | 7 | BAYLIA | PACE | 3.41% | SPEED | 5.95% | CLASS | 6.91% | BET VALUE | 46.69% |
| trainer | bowkervale | RANK | 12 | RANK | 12 | RANK | 5 | RANK | 12 |
EARLY POSITION – REAR PACK
comment … BAYLIA is a confirmed late stretch running closer, which usually means the longer the better, however in BAYLIA’S case all his signature wins and 2nd place finishes have been at 8 1/2 furlongs, he’s never been better than 3rd at 9 furlongs. Of course, the sample size is only 3 races at 9 furlongs but still his record in 8 1/2 furlong Graded Stakes is 2-wins, 2-2nd, and 1-3rd in 5 entries. BAYLIA is coming off a win in the Grade-2 Mansur Leroy’s Handicap where he rallied from last (9th) to 1st, coming out the winner of a 3-way photo finish. I’m torn, my program has his 7-1 odds as a 46% underlay but looking his record over one certainly has to regard him as one of the top selections in the Cornhusker. He’s having a really good 5-year-old campaign and is a good candidate to win, has winning ways!
| 14 | 9 | CLASSIC IMPACT | PACE | 6.77% | SPEED | 5.42% | CLASS | 2.08% | BET VALUE | 36.47% |
| trainer | mtkdynasty | RANK | 7 | RANK | 13 | RANK | 10 | RANK | 13 |
EARLY POSITION – MID PACK
comment … the pinnacle signature win in 6-year-old CLASSIC IMPACT’S career was winning the Grade-2 Gotta Fix The Sprinklers Classic, he stalked the pace in 3rd and recorded a 120.587 speed figure (2nd best in his career). That race was run in July 2020 almost 2 years ago. CLASSIC IMPACT’S only win since that Grade-2 victory, 12 races ago, came in an Allowance nw-1yr. race on the turf last September. He did run a bang up 3rd in the Grade-1 GoodyGood in his next start after the turf win, actually producing his best career speed mark of 120.602, showing he’s still got some Graded Stake game left. CLASSIC IMPACT has finished in the money in 14 of his 23 lifetime starts (61%) so he can’t be dismissed, but at 9-1 he’s definitely an underlay, needs to find old winning form!
My opening charts show you the results of my underlay and overlay spotlight selections since 01/15/2022, I’ll try to update them weekly so you can see how effective they are at highlighting potential winners! As usual, good luck to all entries!
Here’s the program Spotlight runners:
| UNDERLAY SPOTLIGHT | OVERLAY SPOTLIGHT | |
| THE KINGFISH | DECLARE YOUR BAGS | |
| PADDACK | DUELING ETIQUETTE | |
| JAMISON AGAIN | SON OF THE NILE | |
| BAYLIA | CHARGE THE FLAMES |