GRADE-1 WORLD WEEKLY NEWS 2000 – PREVIEW
South Africa (SAF)
Saturday, June 11, 2022 — 2:00:00 PM EST | Race ID : 2802238
World Weekly News 2000
Grade I / Group 1*CPU – Purse : $750,000
Restricted to 3 Year Olds
10 Furlongs | ~2000 Meters | One Mile and One Quarter Firm Turf
UNDERLAY / OVERLAY RACE STUDY (thru 06/10/2022):
| total races | 120 | total horses | 1682 | ||||
| underlays | 422 | wins | 35 | places | 38 | show | 29 |
| win % | 8.294% | place % | 9.005% | ||||
| avg win pay | $16.56 | avg plc pay | $8.79 | ||||
| win ROI $ | -$0.63 | place ROI $ | -$0.48 | ||||
| overlays | 480 | wins | 52 | places | 46 | show | 41 |
| win % | 10.833% | place % | 9.583% | ||||
| avg win pay | $26.71 | avg plc pay | $12.64 | ||||
| win ROI $ | $0.89 | place ROI $ | $0.58 | ||||
| non-select | 780 | wins | 33 | places | 36 | show | 50 |
| win % | 4.231% | place % | 4.615% | ||||
| avg win pay | $30.45 | avg plc pay | $13.78 | ||||
| win ROI $ | -$0.71 | place ROI $ | -$0.78 |
Here’s the capsule breakdown for the 14 entries:
| 1 | 13 | MONTEROSSO LAWMAN | PACE | 8.25% | SPEED | 8.10% | CLASS | 2.56% | BET VALUE | 132.60% |
| trainer | bkrclaimers7 | RANK | 6 | RANK | 6 | RANK | 9 | RANK | 4 |
EARLY POSITION – MID PACK
comment … kind of an up and down career through his first 8 races. MONTEROSSO LAWMAN has 4 wins and 4 out of the money finishes, his maiden win was over a short 4 horse field of $7.5 claimers, he was gelded and followed that with 2 mediocre attempts against allowance nw-2L. He finished a decent 6th of 14 in the Grade-3 Manatee Classic and followed that with his best career showing, winning an Open Stake at today’s race conditions against a pretty good field. His last race was a step back in the 11-furlong Grade-1 Italian Derby, finishing 8th of 9 and registering a 92.355 speed rate after posting a 103.360 in his Commander Jericho win. Getting 13-1 odds seems generous given his potential, but his actual record doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence, needs to rebound off last race to contend!
| 2 | 12 | CIRCUS WARRIOR | PACE | 3.53% | SPEED | 7.89% | CLASS | 2.88% | BET VALUE | 81.39% |
| trainer | checkmate31 | RANK | 13 | RANK | 7 | RANK | 7 | RANK | 12 |
EARLY POSITION – NEAR THE REAR
comment … it’s hard to find any major fault with CIRCUS WARRIOR’S 5 race career, he’s never been worse than 2nd, broke his maiden in his 2nd try and immediately jumped up in class and won an allowance nw-2L in his first go at that level. CIRCUS WARRIOR’S last 2 races were good, solid 2nd place efforts at allowance nw-3L and in his last race the Grade-3 Goodyear Stake, he’s improved his speed figures in all 5 races, including a career best 105.206 on an off-track last race. The only 2 things to question today is will he bounce after that big effort in the Goodyear Stake and can that outstanding speed figure translate on the normal firm turf. CIRCUS WARRIOR is 12-1 rated a minor underlay, but if he actually moves forward off that last good effort, he’s definitely one to watch as the field hits the stretch!
| 3 | 5 | IN DOMINO TABLE | PACE | 5.12% | SPEED | 4.09% | CLASS | 0.48% | BET VALUE | 14.79% |
| trainer | shadowmoss | RANK | 12 | RANK | 12 | RANK | 14 | RANK | 14 |
EARLY POSITION – REAR PACK
comment … IN DOMINO TABLE is a well-bred 3-year-old colt, Invincible Spirit x Deep Impact x Galileo. He won his maiden at 2nd asking, then finished 3rd under back-to-back allowance nw-2L and Open Stake conditions. In his 2nd last start IN DOMINO TABLE finished 7th of 14 in the Grade-3 Force Stake, these were respectable but hardly awe-inspiring efforts. Last race in the 8 1/2-furlong Joe Cayenne Turf Route Open Stake, IN DOMINO TABLE broke through with a signature win, rallying from 7th in the field of 8 to win, recording an outstanding 112.342 speed figure, much the best of his 6-race career. Don’t be shocked by the underlay percentage as my program doesn’t recognize off-track ratings unless it’s an off track in this event and you can certainly see his other 5 races hardly warrant 5-1, he’s a good-looking runner and if he runs back to his last race, he’ll certainly be in the thick of the hunt today!
| 4 | 15 | MAFIA MAN | PACE | 5.32% | SPEED | 2.04% | CLASS | 0.71% | BET VALUE | 23.07% |
| trainer | deyoto4 | RANK | 10 | RANK | 14 | RANK | 13 | RANK | 13 |
EARLY POSITION – REAR MID PACK
comment … trainer deyoto4 has been very patient handling his 3-year-old colt MAFIA MAN. After winning his initial maiden effort and finishing a very good 2nd in his initial try at allowance-nw-2L conditions, MAFIA MAN stalled a bit and it took 7 more races at the nw-2L level to finally produce a victory in MAFIA MAN’S 2nd last race. He did manage a nice 3rd place finish in an Open Stake just before his nw-2L win. In his last race MAFIA MAN moved up to challenge allowance nw-3L and he finished 3rd of 7, but he did post a lifetime best 97.430 speed rating. I guess deyoto4 has decided MAFIA MAN has progressed enough to tackle Grade-1 competition, it’s a big step up for a runner that has only a MSW and an allowance nw-2L win on his 11 race resume. Needless to say even at 15-1 he’s a significant underlay, to his credit he does rally late so it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see him manage a top-5 finish!
| 5 | 19 | GOLDEN DECLARATION | PACE | 2.18% | SPEED | 3.80% | CLASS | 57.78% | BET VALUE | 595.22% |
| trainer | brainpain | RANK | 14 | RANK | 13 | RANK | 1 | RANK | 1 |
EARLY POSITION – NEAR THE REAR
comment … Trainer brainpain’s GOLDEN DECLARATION has earned over $800K in just 8 races, almost 3 times as much as the 2nd highest and yet he has the longest odds in the field at 19-1. In his last race the $3-million-dollar Japanese Derby he ran a bang-up 2nd producing a 103.477 speed figure and he was let go at 27-1 odds, the highest in that field. I see a parallel there. GOLDEN DECLARATION is a late stretch running closer, so he’ll have to pass a bunch of horses to earn his finish, but he’s shown he’s capable of that at this level last race. If we could bet this race, I’d certainly jump all over the generous 19-1 odds, should be major factor through the stretch, beware!
| 6 | 16 | EL SNITZOR | PACE | 6.84% | SPEED | 5.37% | CLASS | 0.80% | BET VALUE | 72.31% |
| trainer | lionsfan | RANK | 8 | RANK | 11 | RANK | 12 | RANK | 9 |
EARLY POSITION – MID PACK
comment … EL SNITZOR’S resume consists of an initial MSW win, 2 conditioned State Bred allowance wins, a 3rd place finish in an Open conditioned allowance. His Open Stake efforts produced a 10th place finish in a field of 11 and a 4th place finish in a field of 7, now EL SNITZOR is moving up to challenge at the Grade-1 Stake level. This seems a daunting task for a runner whose best speed figure is the 98.469 earned last race in the Commander Jericho Turf Route, which was won by MONTEROSSO LAWMAN, one of today’s opponents. He’s 16-1 but given his past performance resume those odds represent an underlay, he’s improving and could run a decent race today, but he’d need to really up his game to challenge for the top prize, tough spot, needs more seasoning!
| 7 | 5 | COLDEST WORLD | PACE | 9.82% | SPEED | 8.92% | CLASS | 6.25% | BET VALUE | 71.21% |
| trainer | redhill14 | RANK | 3 | RANK | 4 | RANK | 4 | RANK | 10 |
EARLY POSITION – ON OR NEAR THE LEAD
comment … co-favorite at 5-1 trainer redhill14’s 3-year-old gelding COLDEST WORLD is coming into the Grade-1 WWN 2000 of a nifty win in the 9-furlong Grade-3 Goodyear Stake, where he stalked the early leader made a winning move at 7 furlongs and held sway in the stretch for a 2 length victory. The Goodyear win was preceded by a similar victory in a 9-furlong conditioned allowance nw-3L win. COLDEST WORLD topped the 100 speed figure in both wins, with a dazzling 107.513 figure in the Grade-3 win, although it was on an off track condition. He’s got the usual distance questions and COLDEST WORLD’S 5-1 odds aren’t exciting as a betting proposition, but he’s a pretty legitimate favorite and most likely a top choice as he’ll be close to the lead early, fit and ready to roll!
| 8 | 10 | WOETTE’S PLANET | PACE | 9.06% | SPEED | 7.30% | CLASS | 6.30% | BET VALUE | 105.38% |
| trainer | wonder6 | RANK | 5 | RANK | 10 | RANK | 3 | RANK | 6 |
EARLY POSITION – LEAD PACK
comment … it took trainer wonder6’s 3-year-old colt WOETTE’S PLANET 5 tries to finally crack his maiden win, but since then the son of sire Showtime has been on fire. WOETTE’S PLANET won his next 2 races after his maiden triumph, a conditioned allowance nw-2L and then a good step-up in class to win a conditioned allowance nw-4x. Trainer wonder6 then decided to enter WOETTE’S PLANET in the Grade-1 French 2000 Guineas and while he didn’t win, WOETTE’S PLANET took a substantial step forward finishing a very respectable 4th in a field of 14, recording a very good 104.914 speed figure. WOETTE’S PLANET has registered a higher speed figure in all 8 of his lifetime starts and looks on the cusp of a big step forward. His 10-1 odds are fair and he has the look of a bonified Grade-1 runner, major threat to win, stalker may be ready to pounce!
| 9 | 10 | OMEN OF THUNDER | PACE | 8.05% | SPEED | 8.71% | CLASS | 1.53% | BET VALUE | 89.48% |
| trainer | givennomercy | RANK | 7 | RANK | 5 | RANK | 11 | RANK | 7 |
EARLY POSITION – MID PACK
comment … everything in OMEN OF THUNDER’S career was going smooth until he was entered in the Grade-3 Goodyear Stake last race. The 3-year-old gelded son of sire Harbinger had won a conditioned allowance nw-3L race and then moved up in class and added a 9-furlong Open Stake victory, recording an excellent 105.817 speed rating. All systems looked “go” but in the Grade-3 Goodyear OMEN OF THUNDER “bounced” and never reached contention, finishing a lackluster 7th in the field of 9 while shaving 10 points off the 105-speed rate. Maybe he didn’t like the off-track condition or maybe he went off form? OMEN OF THUNDER is 10-1 a bit light for a runner that took 2 steps back last race, if it was the off-track, he may right the ship today, otherwise proceed cautiously!
| 10 | 6 | THE SILENT SOLDIER | PACE | 5.19% | SPEED | 10.19% | CLASS | 6.64% | BET VALUE | 63.77% |
| trainer | checkmate24 | RANK | 11 | RANK | 1 | RANK | 2 | RANK | 11 |
EARLY POSITION – REAR PACK
comment … THE SILENT SOLDIER is the 3rd choice in the morning line odds at 6-1, but the3-year-old gelded son of sire Choisir can make a pretty good case for favoritism in the WWN 2000. In his 2nd last race, THE SILENT SOLDIER easily bested 13 other 3-year-olds, winning the Grade-3 Manatee Stake by 3 1/2 lengths drawing away, under today’s exact conditions. In his last race follow up, THE SILENT SOLDIER rallied late to finish 2nd in the Grade-2 Dante’s Inferno, making him the only runner to record a top-3 finish in Grade-1 or 2. His speed figures were 104.300 and 103.474, consistent and certainly competitive in today’s field. My program has him listed as a fairly significant underlay, but I’m not sure I agree, THE SILENT SOLDIER looks to be a legitimate favorite and I think the one to beat, legit class choice!
| 11 | 15 | ORDERIST | PACE | 10.92% | SPEED | 7.55% | CLASS | 3.06% | BET VALUE | 150.55% |
| trainer | amir1763 | RANK | 1 | RANK | 9 | RANK | 6 | RANK | 3 |
EARLY POSITION – ON OR NEAR THE LEAD
comment … despite being a modestly bred 3-year-old-colt out of sire Order Of St. George, ORDERIST has an important trait early speed. ORDERIST is fast out of the starting gate and a prime contender to set the early pace of the WWN 2000. That makes him a dangerous competitor today, of course, there’s always the nagging question of stamina that goes hand in hand with early speed. ORDERIST has shown he’s not a faint-hearted sprinter as he already has stalked and won an Open Stake at 9 1/2 furlongs, but in his last 2 races, he faded in a comeback 9 1/2 furlong Open Stake and badly faded late in the Grade-2 South African Derby. It should be noted that was a 12-furlong race, but ORDERIST lost the lead and was fading at 7 furlongs. You’re getting decent value at 15-1 if you think ORDERIST can handle the 10 furlongs, I think he’s more an 8 – 9 furlong runner at this level, speedy and dangerous, prominent early!
| 12 | 7 | INVINCIBLY | PACE | 5.98% | SPEED | 9.14% | CLASS | 2.44% | BET VALUE | 53.98% |
| trainer | 17away | RANK | 9 | RANK | 3 | RANK | 10 | RANK | 12 |
EARLY POSITION – REAR MID PACK
comment … It’s hard to ignore INVINCIBLY’S last race, he won the 10 1/2 furlong Steel Tequilla Open Stake Turf Route, making a powerful move at 6 furlongs and overcame an 8 length deficit in the final 2 furlongs to win going away. There weren’t any Stake winners in the 10 horse field, but INVINICIBLY did register a 107.197 speed figure which is the highest of any runner in todays WWN 2000. While the win was impressive, I’m not sure it warrant’s the low 7-1 odds, INVINCIBLY has shown a very good late burst of speed and the ability to handle the distance. It’s a big class hike today, but his last win is a good indicator that he’s going to make the jump to Graded Stakes level, if not today, soon must respect ability!
| 13 | 12 | JUNGLE STAR CAT | PACE | 9.96% | SPEED | 7.67% | CLASS | 2.87% | BET VALUE | 122.70% |
| trainer | grenoble4 | RANK | 2 | RANK | 8 | RANK | 8 | RANK | 5 |
EARLY POSITION – ON OR NEAR THE LEAD
comment … there’s several reasons to downgrade JUNGLE START CAT’S chances in the WWN 2000, the most obvious is the fact he’s never faced Stake competition (at any level) yet. He’s a speedy colt as 2 of his 4 wins were wire to wire, so there’s always the nagging question of distance and stamina. Throw in the fact he’s modestly bred on top, the son of Jungle Cat, shares are less than 100 bp’s and you’d think you’re looking at a 40-1 shot. But a closer inspection of his 8 lifetime starts, shows he’s won 4 of those 8 starts and he’s never finished out of the money and always gives a good account, 4 lengths is his worst margin of defeat. JUNGLE STAR CAT has been given respect at 12-1 in the morning line and it’s hard to discount a runner’s chances when he always gives 100%, difficult hurdle, determined runner!
| 14 | 15 | HEART’S RAGE | PACE | 9.78% | SPEED | 9.22% | CLASS | 5.70% | BET VALUE | 180.01% |
| trainer | given2ndchances | RANK | 4 | RANK | 2 | RANK | 5 | RANK | 2 |
EARLY POSITION – LEAD PACK
comment … with 10 starts under his belt, HEART’S RAGE already has a number of quality accomplishment’s, first and foremost his record, 6 wins (60%), 9 of 10 in the money (90%), a 4th place finish in his 3rd career start in an Open Stake is his worst finish. Given the fact HEART’S RAGE has won 3 in a row and is coming off an impressive 3 length win in the Grade-3 Force Stake one of only 3 Graded Stake winners in today’s race), it’s hard to imagine that he’s listed at 15-1 in his morning line. Let’s see good tactical early speed, class credentials, a win at these exact conditions and the 2nd highest earnings in the field, he’s a no-brainer bet at 15-1 and without a doubt one of the top choices to win, everything suggests success!
My opening charts show you the results of my underlay and overlay spotlight selections since 01/15/2022, I’ll try to update them weekly so you can see how effective they are at highlighting potential winners! As usual, good luck to all entries!
Here’s the program Spotlight runners:
| UNDERLAY SPOTLIGHT | OVERLAY SPOTLIGHT | |
| COLDEST WORLD | HEART’S RAGE | |
| OMEN OF THUNDER | GOLDEN DECLARATION | |
| THE SILENT SOLDIER | ORDERIST | |
| INVINCIBLY | WOETTE’S PLANET |
Thanks Cheech!