GRADE-1 DERBY DE ENGLISH – PREVIEW

Surrey-ENG (SUR)

Saturday, June 4, 2022 — 3:00:00 PM EST | Race ID : 2802157

Derby de English

Grade I / Group 1*CPU – Purse : $6,000,000

Restricted to 3 Year Olds

12 Furlongs | ~2400 Meters | One Mile and a Half Firm Turf

UNDERLAY / OVERLAY RACE STUDY (thru 06/03/2022):

total races	119	total horses	1662
underlays	418	wins	34	places	37	show	29
		win %	8.134%	place %	8.852%
		avg win pay	$16.34	avg plc pay	$8.65
		win ROI $	-$0.67	place ROI $	-$0.53
overlays	476	wins	52	places	46	show	41
		win %	10.924%	place %	9.664%
		avg win pay	$26.71	avg plc pay	$12.64
		win ROI $	$0.92	place ROI $	$0.60
non-select	768	wins	33	places	36	show	49
		win %	4.297%	place %	4.688%
		avg win pay	$30.45	avg plc pay	$13.78
		win ROI $	-$0.69	place ROI $	-$0.76

Here’s the capsule breakdown for the 20 entries:

1	12	PANDEJOS	PACE	8.52%	SPEED	10.26%	CLASS	29.17%	BET VALUE	193.54%
	trainer	tnilsson	RANK	4	RANK	1	RANK	2	RANK	2

EARLY POSITION – ON OR NEAR THE LEAD

comment … he’s been first at the 2nd call in 12 of his 18 lifetime starts, so needless to say, PANDEJOS will be a major factor in the early pace of the Derby De English. It’s interesting to note that PANDEJOS’S had 13 of his 18 starts in his 2-year-old season, no other runner in today’s field has more than 9 lifetime starts, so it’s safe to say he’s already an experienced veteran. Hard to argue his class credentials as his last 2 starts were both Grade-1 victories in the 11-furlong Italian Derby and 12-furlong Sydney Derby. You’d expect that PADERJOS would be one of the top 1 or 2 favorites but he’s actually listed at 12-1 bargain odds, he’s fit and sharp and extremely bet worthy!

2	31	LIGHTEN ROCK	PACE	1.85%	SPEED	7.23%	CLASS	1.92%	BET VALUE	112.20%
	trainer	xpansion6	RANK	20	RANK	7	RANK	14	RANK	8

EARLY POSITION – NEAR THE REAR

comment … lightly raced with only 3 starts, LIGHTEN ROCK nevertheless already has a good signature win on his resume. After scoring his maiden win in his 2nd start, trainer xpansion6 showed his confidence in LIGHTEN ROCK, entering the colt in the 13-furlong Grade-3 Vase Of Chester. LIGHTEN ROCK responded with a dominant late rally that allowed him to breeze to a 3 1/4 length win. That win answered 2 major questions, can he compete at the Graded Stake level and can he handle the 12 furlong distance of today’s event. He’s being dismissed at 31-1 odds in today’s morning line and that may be a mistake, upset chance, beware!

3	17	KIAMA TYSEA	PACE	9.09%	SPEED	8.39%	CLASS	2.44%	BET VALUE	100.40%
	trainer	sparadise	RANK	3	RANK	3	RANK	13	RANK	10

EARLY POSITION – ON OR NEAR THE LEAD

comment … add KIAMA TYSEA to the list of runners that will be vying for the early lead, the son of Dubawi has never been more than 1/2 length off the early lead in any of his 5 career starts. He’s coming into the Derby De English off 3 wins in a row, the last win was his best as he won wire to wire in a 10 1/2-furlong Open Stake, recording a personal best 108.063 speed rating. KIAMA TYSEA has improved his speed figure in every start, if he continues that trend today, he may just keep the win streak alive. There may be a question whether he can carry his speed 12 furlongs, but his 17-1 odds are fair and he’s certainly coming into the race fit and sharp, dangerous speed!

4	9	CRYPTO ME	PACE	9.27%	SPEED	7.80%	CLASS	4.52%	BET VALUE	63.29%
	trainer	sandownred	RANK	2	RANK	5	RANK	9	RANK	14

EARLY POSITION – ON OR NEAR THE LEAD

comment … three major early speedsters in the first 4 posts mean’s that something’s (one) got to give. I actually think CRYPTO ME may have the best early kick of all the speedy runners today. I also think he may have a stamina wall that’s a bit short of 12 furlongs. In his last race the 10-furlong Grade-3 Dee Stake, CRYPTO ME easily made the early pace, opened up a 9 3/4 length lead and then had to hold together late to win by a rapidly diminishing 1/2 length. He’s actually faded in the stretch in all 5 of his last races. CRYPTO ME is one of the 3 favorites under 10-1, a bit of an underlay if you think his stamina might come into play. Very fast, will be prominent early, can he handle the late pressure?

5	9	FANCY LIKE	PACE	5.52%	SPEED	4.40%	CLASS	8.03%	BET VALUE	57.94%
	trainer	beerkeg	RANK	12	RANK	16	RANK	5	RANK	16

EARLY POSITION – REAR MID PACK

comment … it’s hard to find fault with FANCY LIKE, the 3-year-old gelding has won 4 of his 5 starts, his only loss was in the Grade-2 Golden Rose where he finished 2nd, losing by a head in a 3-way photo at the wire. FANCY LIKE came right back from that heartbreaker to post a thrilling stretch rally, where he erased a 9 3/4 length deficit to win the 8-furlong Grade-1 Vagabond drawing away. In his brief 5 race career, FANCY LIKE already has a Grade-1 and Grade-2 win and has amassed over $700K in earnings, even though my program lists him as an underlay at 9-1, it’s hard to deny that he’s got plenty of credentials to win. If there’s knock, it’s that he’s primarily competed at 8 furlongs and even though he’s a late runner, FANCY LIKE still needs to prove he can run a lot longer, nearly perfect so far, good test to extend endurance capability!

6	21	INNOCENT SON	PACE	5.25%	SPEED	7.21%	CLASS	4.29%	BET VALUE	114.17%
	trainer	dsg	RANK	14	RANK	8	RANK	10	RANK	7

EARLY POSITION – REAR PACK

comment … started his career on dirt, quickly switched to turf and immediately won a conditioned allowance and a 9 1/2-furlong Open Stake. Trainer dsg has really been pushing INNOCENT SON and the 3-year-old son of sire Nyquist has responded well. INNOCENT SON followed the Open Stake win with a pair of game 2nd place finishes in the 10-furlong Grade-3 Manatee Classic and the 11-furlong Grade-2 Hogwarts, each race has expanded INNOCENT SON’S class and distance exposure. Today’s race is another “big” step up in class and distance, INNOCENT SON has a steady forward grinding style which should pay dividends if he can handle the longer distances. His 21-1 odds are more than fair, I’m not sure he’s a major threat to win but a top-5 finish is well within his capabilities, slow and steady runners may not always win, but they cash a lot of checks!

7	12	DUNRAVEN STOKE	PACE	4.10%	SPEED	8.88%	CLASS	9.08%	BET VALUE	77.36%
	trainer	deyoto9	RANK	17	RANK	2	RANK	4	RANK	12

EARLY POSITION – REAR PACK

comment … has already amassed over $1.2 million in earnings in 8 races. In his 5 Graded Stake entries, DUNRAVEN STOKE is a perfect 5 for 5 recording either 1st or 2nd place finishes, he’s earned 1-Grade1 win, 2-Grade-3 wins and 2-Grade-1 places. DUNRAVEN STOKE is usually mid-pack early and launches a smart stretch move, in the Derby De English there’s a lot of speed and 20 horses, so DUNRAVEN STOKE may find himself a bit farther back than normal. Will that hurt or help his chances, it shouldn’t hurt them as long as he can keep the lengths back early reasonable. He’s rattled off 3 straight 100+ speed figures and if he can move forward a couple ticks, he should be right there at the wire. His 12-1 odds are a bit light, but not too bad as he’s definitely a “major” player in today’s Derby!

8	19	OMEGA FUN	PACE	7.79%	SPEED	2.14%	CLASS	1.45%	BET VALUE	54.87%
	trainer	aussiebiz	RANK	7	RANK	19	RANK	17	RANK	17

EARLY POSITION – LEAD PACK

comment … OMEGA FUN has proven to be a good capable Allowance runner for trainer aussiebiz, after cracking his maiden in his 2nd start, OMEGA FUN has won all 3 conditioned Allowances he’s entered. OMEGA FUN has tested the Open Stake waters 4 times now and while he’s managed good 2nd, 3rd or 4th place finishes, that Open Stake win has still eluded him. OMEGA FUN is moving way up in class, challenging at Grade-1 level and given the fact he’s never hit the 100 speed figure barrier makes it a real uphill climb. At 19-1 odds he’s an underlay and unless somehow lightning strikes, seems really up against it!

9	12	HARDERTHANITHASTOB	PACE	7.91%	SPEED	2.05%	CLASS	10.89%	BET VALUE	75.71%
	trainer	worldclass6	RANK	6	RANK	20	RANK	3	RANK	13

EARLY POSITION – LEAD PACK

comment … interesting runner has the most wins (5) of any other runner in the field. It’s an interesting array of wins, Maiden, Hot, Allowance, Open Stake and Grade-1 Equinics. The 8-furlong Grade-1 Equinics win is far and away the highlight of HARDERTHANITHASTOB’S 9 race career, his speed figure of 106.644 fits nicely in this crowd. Can he handle 12 furlongs, that’s the question as HARDERTHANITHASTOB has never raced farther than 8 furlongs. Interestingly, his last race the 8-furlong Grade-1 2000 Guineas, where he finished 4th (the worst finish of his career) and yet, HARDERTHANITHASTOB was still gaining on the winner as he crossed the wire, a positive sign that he may be able to carry his speed further. How much further, that may be answered today, his 12-1 odds aren’t very attractive, but he certainly has to be considered a threat today!

10	62	KNIGHT OF PLUNDER	PACE	6.62%	SPEED	2.22%	CLASS	6.06%	BET VALUE	288.52%
	trainer	deyoto4	RANK	9	RANK	18	RANK	8	RANK	1

EARLY POSITION – MID PACK

comment … so what do you do for an encore after your 3-year-old colt has just broken his maiden in a 12-furlong Grade-2 Stake as a 31-1 longshot? Well of course you enter them in a $6 million Grade-1 event and now KNIGHT OF PLUNDER is a 62-1 longshot, seeking what is in essence his Allowance nw-2L win. Hats off to trainer deyoto4, despite the improbable background situation, you have to consider KNIGHT OF PLUNDER a contender, much less than his 62-1 odds would indicate. He’s won a Grade-2 Stake, he’s won at the distance and on the surface, so there’s no obvious reason to downgrade his chance for success, cheers!

11	28	ICE SPIKE	PACE	5.60%	SPEED	6.40%	CLASS	6.97%	BET VALUE	180.77%
	trainer	crackpot	RANK	10	RANK	12	RANK	7	RANK	3

EARLY POSITION – MID PACK

comment … another runner who’s taken a rather strange career path. ICE SPIKE started his career challenging Open Stake company on the dirt, considering he’d never raced before, his 7th of 10 and 6th of 15 place finishes were pretty respectable. Trainer crackpot then moved ICE SPIKE to the turf and he ran a good 2nd in an 11-furlong Allowance nw-1yr. in a small field of 5. ICE SPIKE was then thrown to the wolves in the Grade-1 Italian Derby and rallied late to show. ICE SPIKE finally broke his maiden winning by 18 lengths in a $10K hot race against 2-cpr runners and a stablemate. Taken at face value his chances look very slim, but I must admit, he’s ran better than one would think, given his lack of race experience. His 28-1 odds are fairly attractive, today’s Derby De English will provide us with better insight on how much potential ICE SPIKE has, curious entry!

12	11	KIAMA AGILITY	PACE	7.52%	SPEED	8.16%	CLASS	7.44%	BET VALUE	87.42%
	trainer	chatham05	RANK	8	RANK	4	RANK	6	RANK	11

EARLY POSITION – MID PACK

comment … KIAMA AGILITY has taken a more conventional career path, after winning his Maiden at first asking. The son of sire Sea The Stars stalled a bit in the conditioned Allowance nw-2L, finally winning wire to wire on his 3rd try, posting a very good 101.641 speed rating in the 9-furlong event. KIAMA AGILITY followed with a dominating 4 length win in a 9 1/2 furlong Open Stake and a 1 1/2 length triumph in the 10-furlong Grade-2 Derby Stud Trail recording solid 105 & 104 speed figures. He’s coming in to the Derby De English fit and ready, his 11-1 odds are a bit short but there’s no way to avoid the fact he’s a prime contender today, well positioned for success!

13	27	YOZE KEJEE	PACE	5.54%	SPEED	6.90%	CLASS	1.56%	BET VALUE	117.68%
	trainer	yoz09	RANK	11	RANK	11	RANK	16	RANK	6

EARLY POSITION – MID PACK

comment … entered in a bargain basement $3K maiden claimers in his first race, YOZE KEJEE has proven to be a real bargain. After winning that initial maiden claimer and a follow-up $3K starter allowance, the son of sire Sweynesse was able to move up in class and post a solid Allowance nw-1x victory. YOZE KEJEE was the entered in 3 Open Stake contests and posted in the money finishes in all 3, recording a solid 100.752 in his 2nd last race. He’s obviously taking a big step up to challenge Grade-1 runners, add in the fact he’s never won a race over 8 1/2 furlongs. YOZE KEJEE’s 27-1 odds seem about right and while it’s hard to envision him winning today, a respectable finish in the top half of the field wouldn’t surprise, tough spot!

14	15	BLOODY CHUFFED	PACE	5.34%	SPEED	3.69%	CLASS	3.04%	BET VALUE	60.37%
	trainer	allfrankel	RANK	13	RANK	17	RANK	12	RANK	15

EARLY POSITION – REAR MID PACK

comment … lightly raced and improving, BLOODY CHUFFED won his maiden at first asking. He graduated and won his first conditioned Allowance on his 2nd try, finishing 2nd in his first effort. In his 4th start, BLOODY CHUFFED was entered in 9-furlong race against Open Stake company and rallied mid-stretch to win by 2 lengths. Last race BLOODY CHUFFED took on Graded competition in the Grade-2 Griffen and held on in a photo, finishing a solid 3rd. It appeared that BLOODY CHUFFED was backing up a bit late in his last race, so 12 furlongs may not be his optimal distance and I’m not sure he’s ready for this level yet. He’s an underlay at 15-1, but BLOODY CHUFFED is on the right path and I’m pretty sure he’ll be competitive in Graded Stakes company, tough race but trending well!

15	20	TETE MARTYRIUM	PACE	5.08%	SPEED	7.21%	CLASS	1.76%	BET VALUE	104.02%
	trainer	racelord	RANK	15	RANK	9	RANK	15	RANK	9

EARLY POSITION – REAR PACK

comment … won 3 in a row to start his career, albeit against short 4-5 horse fields, in the 3rd win TETE MARTYRIUM posted a 100.197 speed figure. Trainer racelord decided to give TETE MARTYRIUM a go against Grade-1 runners in an 8-furlong branch of the Equinics and unfortunately, TETE MARTYRIUM wasn’t ready and finished a non-competitive 14th. After a 6-week rest, TETE MARTYRIUM was entered in the 10-furlong Grade-3 Jargon Stakes and this time his colt responded well with a stalking 2 1/2 length win. He moved forward in the Jargon recording a career high 103.496 speed figure, is he ready for Grade-1 now? At 20-1 he’s fair odds and I wouldn’t dismiss his chances, not sure he’ll be able to track the early pace as closely as he usually does, fit and ready to advance!

16	15	STRUCTURAL DAMAGES	PACE	4.99%	SPEED	7.07%	CLASS	1.38%	BET VALUE	54.49%
	trainer	foxon	RANK	16	RANK	10	RANK	18	RANK	18

EARLY POSITION – REAR PACK

comment … coming into the Derby De English off 3 winning races in a row, STRUCTURAL DAMAGES certainly looks like an improving colt on his way to bigger accomplishments. His breeding is very turf forward, Churchill x Sea The Stars x Sadler’s Wells, he’s won in good conventional step-ladder format, winning a conditioned Allowance, an Open Allowance and finally a 10.5-furlong Open Stake, posting a 104.422 and 102.120. The only question raised in STRUCTURAL DAMAGES last Open Stake win, in fact in all 3 wins is the quality of opponent. All 3 wins were against small 5-6 horse fields and while trainer foxon can’t help that, it will be interesting to see how STRUCTURAL DAMAGE will fare against a large field with several very accomplished opponents. His 15-1 odds are definitely light considering it’s his first Graded Stake effort, interesting well-bred runner, big test!

17	38	KYROCK	PACE	8.48%	SPEED	6.00%	CLASS	1.33%	BET VALUE	169.34%
	trainer	atw5	RANK	5	RANK	13	RANK	20	RANK	4

EARLY POSITION – LEAD PACK

comment … while he’s a nice-looking colt with some up-side, trainer atw5 has really presented his 3-year-old colt KYROCK a tough challenge in the Derby De English. KYROCK failed to crack his maiden in 3 tries against MSW company so atw5 entered him in short fields against conditioned Allowance nw-1yr. runners. All the fields were only 4-5 entries and it took 5 tries to post that first win, to his credit KYROCK followed that Allowance nw-1yr. victory with another win against conditioned Allowance nw-2L, recording his career best 98.863 speed rating. Is that enough to challenge this field? You get 38-1 odds if you like his chances, it looks like a really tough placement for KYROCK!

18	6	BEST INJECT	PACE	10.12%	SPEED	4.63%	CLASS	55.63%	BET VALUE	161.21%
	trainer	tootees	RANK	1	RANK	15	RANK	1	RANK	5

EARLY POSITION – ON OR NEAR THE LEAD

comment … first the positives, there’s little doubt that BEST INJECT’S wire-to-wire victory in his last race, the Grade-1 2000 Guineas is the best signature win in the today’s field. He recorded a fantastic 115.248 speed rating that is 5 points higher than the 2nd best posted by any of his opponents. The only problem and that is the same problem all lightning-fast early speed runners face and that’s his stamina ceiling. Looking over BEST INJECT’S past performances reveals he’s faded late in all 7 of his career starts, all of which were contested at 8 or 8 1/2 furlongs. He’s been made the favorite at 6-1 odds and if the Derby De English were 8 to 9 furlongs that would be a bargain, but 12 furlongs is a whole different game, can BEST INJECT win? Certainly but he’s going to have to show he can withstand early and late pressure a lot farther than he ever has had to, major player will be tested!

19	10	AT DEATH’S DOOR	PACE	3.44%	SPEED	7.48%	CLASS	1.38%	BET VALUE	33.80%
	trainer	peeps4	RANK	19	RANK	6	RANK	19	RANK	20

EARLY POSITION – NEAR THE REAR

comment … if there’s a sleeper in today’s field, it’s trainer peeps4’s AT DEATH’S DOOR. The 3-year-old son of sire Galileo has won 3 of his 6 starts and has finished in the money in all 6, he’s only lost by a combined 1 1/2 lengths, so you can count on him to be in the thick of the battle. He’s a late running closer and that well could be the style that prevails today, given the amount of early speed in the field. His last race was extremely impressive, AT DEATH’S DOOR rallied from 10 3/4 lengths back at 8 furlongs to lose by 1/2 length in the 10-furlong Grade-3 Dee Stakes, there’s little doubt he’d have won with an extra furlong. Today he’s got 2 extra furlongs so it’s logical that his chances of winning are enhanced, my program’s got him as a huge underlay at 10-1 but that doesn’t take into account all of today’s circumstances, will be charging hard late, hard to not include on all bet slips!

20	19	I AM SWEEPER COTC	PACE	3.47%	SPEED	4.63%	CLASS	3.44%	BET VALUE	54.03%
	trainer	cotclaim	RANK	18	RANK	14	RANK	11	RANK	19

EARLY POSITION – NEAR THE REAR

comment … took a big leap forward in his last race, winning the Grade-2 Griffen, posting a career best 106.521 speed figure. I AM SWEEPER COTC is another late stretch running colt, who I think the pace and distance will favor in the Derby De English. When a runner improves 9 points and wins a Graded Stake after finishing 6th in a conditioned Allowance, he’s always a candidate for a “bounce”, so that’s always a possibility. My program downgrades the winning chances of the late runners, hence the 19-1 underlay projection, but these longer races for young horses are a bit out of the programs main scope, so if he doesn’t bounce, I’d expect to see I AM SWEEPER COTC rally late and pass lots of tired runners, good shot at top-5 or better!

My opening charts show you the results of my underlay and overlay spotlight selections since 01/15/2022, I’ll try to update them weekly so you can see how effective they are at highlighting potential winners! As usual, good luck to all entries!

Here’s the program Spotlight runners:

UNDERLAY SPOTLIGHT		OVERLAY SPOTLIGHT
KIAMA AGILITY		PANDEJOS
DUNRAVEN STOKE		BEST INJECT
CRYPTO ME		KIAMA TYSEA
HARDERTHANITHASTOB		ICE SPIKE