GRADE-1 THE STAND BROKE – PREVIEW
Victoria-AUS (VIC)
Saturday, May 28, 2022 — 3:00:00 PM EST | Race ID : 2802038
The Strand Broke
Grade I / Group 1*CPU – Purse : $750,000
Restricted to 3 Year Olds and Older
7 Furlongs | ~1400 Meters | Seven Eighths of a Mile Firm Turf
UNDERLAY / OVERLAY RACE STUDY (thru 05/27/2022):
| total races | 118 | total horses | 1648 | ||||
| underlays | 414 | wins | 34 | places | 37 | show | 28 |
| win % | 8.213% | place % | 8.937% | ||||
| avg win pay | $16.34 | avg plc pay | $8.65 | ||||
| win ROI $ | -$0.66 | place ROI $ | -$0.52 | ||||
| overlays | 472 | wins | 52 | places | 45 | show | 41 |
| win % | 11.017% | place % | 9.534% | ||||
| avg win pay | $26.71 | avg plc pay | $12.64 | ||||
| win ROI $ | $0.94 | place ROI $ | $0.60 | ||||
| non-select | 762 | wins | 32 | places | 36 | show | 49 |
| win % | 4.199% | place % | 4.724% | ||||
| avg win pay | $30.36 | avg plc pay | $13.72 | ||||
| win ROI $ | -$0.72 | place ROI $ | -$0.78 |
Here’s the capsule breakdown for the 14 entries:
| 1 | 9 | G’DAY | PACE | 12.85% | SPEED | 5.27% | CLASS | 4.13% | BET VALUE | 83.09% |
| trainer | wharfside | RANK | 1 | RANK | 11 | RANK | 6 | RANK | 8 |
EARLY POSITION – ON OR NEAR THE LEAD
comment … one thing you can count on is that G’DAY will have a big impact on the pace thru the first 5 furlongs of the GRADE-1 Stand Broke. The 5-year-old son of sire Australia has led the field to the 3rd call in 19 of his 22 lifetime starts. It’s hard to imagine he won’t be in position to win when the field nears the stretch run. Although G’DAY primarily has been entered in 5-to-6-furlong events since he turned 4, he has 3, 7-furlong wins, most recently in an Open Stake in his 2nd last start. His 9-1 odds are a pretty fair value, the question will be his stamina, he faded late, last race in the 6-furlong Grade-1 Sydney Spring so an added furlong could be problematic, needs to set a reasonable pace!
| 2 | 13 | UNHEALTHY | PACE | 2.57% | SPEED | 8.75% | CLASS | 1.28% | BET VALUE | 79.13% |
| trainer | redhill25 | RANK | 14 | RANK | 4 | RANK | 13 | RANK | 9 |
EARLY POSITION – NEAR THE RAER
comment … UNHEALTHY concluded his 3-year-old campaign on a high note, winning the 7-furlong Grade-2 The Greys. His first 2 starts against the older crowd in the Grade-1 Pekays Remembrance and the Grade-3 Mr. Anderson Special Stakes, were both steps back for the 4-year-old son of sire Farhh. He improved last race, winning an Open Allowance sprint against 9 older runners earning a spirited 115.391 career best speed figure. Although 13-1 seems generous, this is a big step up in class and considering the fact he will more than likely take the overland route, from the rear, it’s a daunting challenge making his odds less of a bargain than they appear, improving, but a tough task to recommend!
| 3 | 13 | ANGASTON | PACE | 7.66% | SPEED | 7.35% | CLASS | 12.90% | BET VALUE | 164.38% |
| trainer | grassman | RANK | 5 | RANK | 9 | RANK | 2 | RANK | 2 |
EARLY POSITION – LEAD PACK
comment … he’s won a Grade-1 as a 2-year-old, also as a 3-year-old and just missed winning one last race as a 4-year-old. ANGASTON looks very well placed in Saturday’s Stand Broke, his style seems perfectly suited for the 7-furlong event. ANGASTON should be able to position near the front in comfortable tracking position and will have first crack at the leaders if the early speed falters. Distance is no problem, he already has 3 route wins, including the 8-furlong Grade-1 Jean Brat. ANGASTON’S odds of 13-1 are very generous, he’s fit and coming off the best race of his career. All systems are a “go”, “prime” challenger!
| 4 | 7 | NUKE SITE ALPHA | PACE | 3.61% | SPEED | 4.93% | CLASS | 12.64% | BET VALUE | 72.41% |
| trainer | lenny27 | RANK | 13 | RANK | 12 | RANK | 3 | RANK | 10 |
EARLY POSITION – NEAR THE REAR
comment … NUKE SITE ALPHA has started off 2022 in fine fashion, winning 2 Open Stakes and placing 2nd in the Grade-1 New Market Handicap, arguably the highwater effort of his 25-race career, as it’s the only time he’s finished in the money in 4 Graded Stake entries. This looks like a good time and place for NUKE SITE ALPHA to try and capture that elusive Graded Stake victory, he’s in good form and fit and needs to win soon as father time is coming. NUKE SITE ALPHA’S 7-1 odds are pretty light considering he’s never won a Graded event, add in the fact, he’ll will have to pass virtually everyone to win the Stand Broke, will be flying late!
| 5 | 7 | BEAUTIFUL VAR | PACE | 6.76% | SPEED | 9.04% | CLASS | 2.39% | BET VALUE | 65.56% |
| trainer | ddkstables29 | RANK | 9 | RANK | 3 | RANK | 11 | RANK | 11 |
EARLY POSITION – MID PACK
comment … he’s kind of a 7-furlong turf specialist, BEAUTIFUL VAR has run 13 of his last 15 races under today’s exact conditions, his record, 3-wins, 3-2nd’s and 4-3rd’s. His signature wins are the Grade-2 Sumo Sprint and Grade-3 Polar Bear Cup. Both of BEAUTIFUL VAR’s 2022 races ended in respectable 3rd place finishes in the Grade-3 Mr Anderson Special and the Grade-2 The All Ages in his last race. While he’s got a fair chance to win and a good chance to finish in the money, his 7-1 odds are low comparing his credentials against several others in this field, usually gives a good account, chance on best!
| 6 | 8 | RAZOR CREST | PACE | 8.75% | SPEED | 7.19% | CLASS | 1.56% | BET VALUE | 62.94% |
| trainer | rdyplyr1 | RANK | 3 | RANK | 10 | RANK | 12 | RANK | 13 |
EARLY POSITION – ON OR NEAR THE LEAD
comment … RAZOR CREST is a tough runner to get a handle on, when he’s good, he’s really good, like when he was on a 3-win roll as a 3-year-old, culminating in winning a leg of the Grade-1 Equinics. However after that signature win, it took RAZOR CREST 13 races to win his next Graded Stake, the Grade-3 Sumo Sprint in February, where he “blazed” to victory, recording a splendid 118.898 speed figure. His next 2 races were a respectable 4th in the Grade-1 Ye Olde Shopping Exchange, where RAZOR CREST had the lead turning home but hung mid-stretch and had to settle for 4th. Last race he ran an odd race in the Sydney Sprint, where he gained ground late but wasn’t able to pass anyone and finished 9th, however he was only 3 lengths behind the winner. Given his up and down performances, 8-1 odds aren’t real attractive, but he certainly is capable of winning the Stand Broke, on and off good efforts!
| 7 | 25 | MY BOY CASPER | PACE | 6.46% | SPEED | 1.93% | CLASS | 0.67% | BET VALUE | 64.41% |
| trainer | woette5 | RANK | 11 | RANK | 14 | RANK | 14 | RANK | 12 |
EARLY POSITION – REAR PACK
comment … as you peruse the MY BOY CASPER’S past performances, it’s tough to make case for him winning the Grade-1 Stand Broke. His signature win came July 2021, when he captured the 6-furlong Grade-3 Hackwood. That is certainly the highlight of his career, his 3 wins were all at the 5-6 furlong distances and he’s still eligible for nw-3x allowance conditions. It’s hard to imagine that odds of 25-1 are a significant underlay, but that’s what the numbers indicate. MY BOY CASPER needs to up his game about 2 levels to compete at this level and that’s a tall order at this stage of his career, against this field!
| 8 | 15 | DIABOLICAL TALONS | PACE | 5.73% | SPEED | 4.09% | CLASS | 5.54% | BET VALUE | 115.57% |
| trainer | given7 | RANK | 12 | RANK | 13 | RANK | 5 | RANK | 5 |
EARLY POSITION – REAR PACK
comment … it took trainer given7 awhile to decide the distance that best suits his runner DIABLOICAL TALONS, after giving his runner 5 tries at route racing, he turned the 4-year-old son of sire Gleneagles back to sprinting and his career took off. DIABOLICAL TALONS has rattled off 5-wins and 2-2nds since the distance cutback and last race even though he wasn’t top-3, DIABOLICAL TALONS finished a fast-closing 4th in the 6-furlong Grade-1 Sydney Sprint. Conventional wisdom says that the late closing effort should set him up nicely with the added furlong in the Stand Broke. His 15-1 odds are more than fair, he’s improving and a real danger to score his first Graded Stake win, sleeper pick!
| 9 | 10 | I JUST AM | PACE | 7.01% | SPEED | 9.66% | CLASS | 2.56% | BET VALUE | 92.52% |
| trainer | stkilda | RANK | 6 | RANK | 1 | RANK | 10 | RANK | 6 |
EARLY POSITION – MID PACK
comment … you have to call I JUST AM’S rebirth as a turf racer a success, after a good initial start on the turf, I JUST AM couldn’t crack the top-3 in 4 tries so trainer stkilda moved him to the dirt. I JUST AM managed 2 wins against State Bred Allowance company, then stalled in 3 straight dirt track efforts and stkilda moved him back to the turf. In his 2nd turf career, I JUST AM has already taken his game up 2 class levels, winning an Open Stake and following that with a very nice 2nd place effort in the Grade-3 Sumo Sprint. After 5 straight 1st or 2nd place efforts, I JUST AM “bounced” a bit last race posting a 9th place finish in the Grade-3 April Showers Cap, so I’m not sure the timing of the Grade-1 entry will move his game forward. Given his current form, 10-1 odds are a little low, needs to revert to his Sumo Sprint form!
| 10 | 14 | GALILARYAS | PACE | 6.89% | SPEED | 8.72% | CLASS | 3.44% | BET VALUE | 124.56% |
| trainer | mightyforego5 | RANK | 7 | RANK | 5 | RANK | 8 | RANK | 4 |
EARLY POSITION – MID PACK
comment … it took GALILARYAS 4 races to crack his maiden win, but he followed that win with 4-wins and 2-2nd’s, 2 of those wins were back-to-back Open Stake events, after those 6 races, he ran a respectable 3rd place showing in the Grade-1 Ye Olde Shopping Exchange Stake. His last race saw GALILARYAS finishing 6th behind 3 of the runners he’ll face in the Stand Broke, he was however only 2 1/2 lengths behind the winner. GALILARYAS only has 12 races under his belt, so the lightly raced 4-year-old may move forward off that minor bounce, he’s priced at 14-1 and I think there’s value in those odds, I’ll be surprised if he further regresses, improving colt may be primed for an upset!
| 11 | 6 | THE PERFECT LAP | PACE | 8.65% | SPEED | 8.34% | CLASS | 11.54% | BET VALUE | 91.22% |
| trainer | sedation0 | RANK | 4 | RANK | 6 | RANK | 4 | RANK | 7 |
EARLY POSITION – LEAD PACK
comment … another runner whose trainer decided to switch his runner’s preferred surface mid-career, THE PERFECT LAP already had over $500K and a Grade-1 Stake win on his resume when trainer sedition0 decided his charge could use a scenario change. While his runner hasn’t quite found Grade-1 success yet, THE PERFECT LAP has won an Open Stake and also the Grade-2 Mile Championship, with a near miss in the Grade-3 Hungry Ford and in those 6 turf races has earned almost $400K. I have a soft spot for these versatile runners and THE PERFECT LAP is a pretty good one. In his last race the Grade-1 Sydney Mile, THE PERFECT LAP chased the early leader in 3rd but had nothing left for the stretch and finished 9th. He’s been made the 6-1 co-favorite in the Stand Broke and while not terrible odds, they’re a bit short considering his last race produced his lowest turf speed figure, rebound off last race?
| 12 | 6 | VERY FUNNY B | PACE | 6.58% | SPEED | 7.91% | CLASS | 3.96% | BET VALUE | 59.14% |
| trainer | cheapobarb2 | RANK | 10 | RANK | 7 | RANK | 7 | RANK | 14 |
EARLY POSITION – REAR MID PACK
comment … after earning his maiden victory in his first race, VERY FUNNY B rattled off 4-wins, 1-2nd and 1-3rd against conditioned allowance runners, a very rapid allowance class rise by any standards. He then jumped into the Open Stake level and had good early sucess there, winning 2 of his 1st 4 tries. VERY FUNNY B was then entered in Graded Stakes and that’s where his record stalled, only managing a 4th in the Grade-3 Hungry Ford as his best showing. VERY FUNNY B was dropped back into Open Stakes and after a mediocre 6th, bounced back with a good 2nd place finish, recording a 115.192 speed figure. He then re-emerged in the Grade-3 Thank You Stake this February and got his long-awaited Grade-3 win. Last race he ran a respectable 4th in the Grade-2 Bourbon Mile, VERY FUNNY B seems back on schedule, but it seems a stretch to make him a 6-1 co-favorite in the Grade-1 Stand Broke, while he may do well, he seems like 12-1 would be more in line with his chances, moving forward?
| 13 | 20 | EXETHAMBTHSAN | PACE | 6.86% | SPEED | 7.35% | CLASS | 3.26% | BET VALUE | 159.27% |
| trainer | fromtheu | RANK | 8 | RANK | 8 | RANK | 9 | RANK | 3 |
EARLY POSITION – MID PACK
comment … interestingly after his colt EXETHAMBTHSAN broke his maiden in his first race, on the dirt, trainer fromtheu immediately moved him to the turf, without another dirt try. EXETHAMBTHSAN responded with an allowance nw2L win and he was 2 for 2 lifetime. In his next 7 starts EXETHAMBTHSAN only managed 1 more win (conditioned allowance), but his speed figures were advancing upward, in April after another conditioned allowance win, fromtheu decided to enter his runner in an Open Stake and EXETHAMBTHSAN responded with a good mid pack tracking win, not only notching an Open Stake win in his first try, he also set a career best 114.171 speed figure which marks him as being competitive at the Graded Stake levels. Is he good enough to make the jump all the way up to Grade-1 after that win? We’ll find out, but at 20-1 odds, he’s a runner you don’t want to leave off your betting slips, big leap, but capable!
| 14 | 10 | WASH RINSE REPEAT | PACE | 9.63% | SPEED | 9.48% | CLASS | 34.12% | BET VALUE | 251.58% |
| trainer | appalachia | RANK | 2 | RANK | 2 | RANK | 1 | RANK | 1 |
EARLY POSITION – ON OR NEAR THE LEAD
comment … racing is a tough game, regardless of what you’ve done, there’s always questions about your ability and of course, you’re only as good as your last race. Going into his division of February’s Equinics, WASH RINSE REPEAT was a “hot” horse, he had won 5 straight, the 5th win was his first try at Open Stake company, but now he was going against proven Graded Stake level runners. All he did was win, drawing away from everyone and set a phenomenal 123.337 speed rating, at 19-1 I might add. Predictably last race the Grade-1 Sydney Sprint, WASH RINSE REPEAT bounced, finishing 5th but beaten less than 2 lengths. That brings us to today and there’s now 2 questions that need to be answered, can he rebound from that last race and can he handle 7-furlongs, all 6 of his wins were at 6 furlongs? I definitely think the answer is yes to can he rebound, the distance question is legit but WASH RINSE REPEAT is listed at 10-1 odds and that’s awful generous for a 4-year-old with his potential, regardless of the questions, he’s a must play!
My opening charts show you the results of my underlay and overlay spotlight selections since 01/15/2022, I’ll try to update them weekly so you can see how effective they are at highlighting potential winners! As usual, good luck to all entries!
Here’s the program Spotlight runners:
| UNDERLAY SPOTLIGHT | OVERLAY SPOTLIGHT | |
| THE PERFECT LAP | WASH RINSE REPEAT | |
| G’DAY | ANGASTON | |
| I JUST AM | GALILARYAS | |
| VERY FUNNY B | EXETHAMBTHSAN |