GRADE-3 THE JACOB HIRSCH PREVIEW
Maryland (MD)
Saturday, May 21, 2022 — 1:30:00 PM EST | Race ID : 2801792
The Jacob Hirsch
Grade III / Group 3*CPU – Purse : $150,000
Restricted to 3 Year Olds
6 Furlongs | ~1200 Meters | Three Quarters of a Mile Fast Dirt
UNDERLAY / OVERLAY RACE STUDY (thru 05/20/2022):
| total races | 116 | total horses | 1620 | ||||
| underlays | 406 | wins | 33 | places | 35 | show | 28 |
| win % | 8.128% | place % | 8.621% | ||||
| avg win pay | $16.30 | avg plc pay | $8.53 | ||||
| win ROI $ | -$0.67 | place ROI $ | -$0.57 | ||||
| overlays | 464 | wins | 51 | places | 45 | show | 40 |
| win % | 10.991% | place % | 9.698% | ||||
| avg win pay | $26.75 | avg plc pay | $12.66 | ||||
| win ROI $ | $0.94 | place ROI $ | $0.62 | ||||
| non-select | 750 | wins | 32 | places | 36 | show | 48 |
| win % | 4.267% | place % | 4.800% | ||||
| avg win pay | $30.36 | avg plc pay | $13.72 | ||||
| win ROI $ | -$0.70 | place ROI $ | -$0.76 |
Here’s the capsule breakdown for the 14 entries:
| 1 | 8 | TRIPSANITY | PACE | 7.17% | SPEED | 11.34% | CLASS | 26.53% | BET VALUE | 179.38% |
| trainer | scoobzilla7 | RANK | 10 | RANK | 3 | RANK | 1 | RANK | 2 |
EARLY POSITION – REAR MID PACK
comment … excluding a minor bounce in the Grade-2 The Golden Nugget Futurity, which was his only route race, TRIPSANITY’S record is sterling. The 3-year-old colt already has 2 Open Stake wins, his last race was a good 2nd place effort in the Grade-1 Lets Get Girty which should set him up perfectly for today’s Grade-3 Jacob Hirsch. Normally 8-1 odds aren’t considered a generous overlay, but TRIPSANITY’S form fit and certainly has the credentials needed to notch his first Graded Stake victory, all systems go!
| 2 | 13 | SINGAMEANTUNEKID | PACE | 2.13% | SPEED | 8.24% | CLASS | 0.61% | BET VALUE | 69.31% |
| trainer | esrreserve | RANK | 14 | RANK | 6 | RANK | 14 | RANK | 13 |
EARLY POSITION – NEAR THE REAR
comment … the Jacob Hirsch is an interesting spot for trainer esrreserve to enter his colt SINGAMEANTUNEKID in for his first go at Graded Stake level competition. His late stretch rallying style seems to be better suited for the longer sprints or possibly even route racing. In SINGMEAMEANTUNE, last race a 6 1/2 furlong conditioned allowance, he rallied late but was too far back to reach contention, so it’s hard to imagine he’ll be closer early and consequently will have less ground to reach contention. Given the circumstances 13-1 odds aren’t a bargain, SINGAMEANTUNE’S best races have been at 6 furlongs, hoping the trainer knows best!
| 3 | 9 | AWESOME ROOTINE | PACE | 4.43% | SPEED | 12.54% | CLASS | 2.50% | BET VALUE | 92.17% |
| trainer | trotter2 | RANK | 12 | RANK | 1 | RANK | 13 | RANK | 7 |
EARLY POSITION – REAR PACK
comment … even though a 4th place finish in his first entry at the Open Stake level isn’t a career defining accomplishment, it does mark the 5th race in a row that AWESOME ROOTINE has moved forward and improved his speed figure, in fact he’s improved his figures in 8 of his last 9 entries. He’s one of 5 in today’s field that’s topped the 100+ speed figure barrier and that qualifies AWESOME ROOTINE as a legit threat. His 9-1 odds are fair, and while he may not win today, he’s steady and a top-5 finish seems more likely than not, keeps progressing!
| 4 | 5 | SO FLAT | PACE | 7.77% | SPEED | 10.28% | CLASS | 4.16% | BET VALUE | 55.30% |
| trainer | sano | RANK | 8 | RANK | 4 | RANK | 9 | RANK | 14 |
EARLY POSITION – MID PACK
comment … trainer sano’s colt, SO FLAT has been designated as the 5-1 morning line favorite by the track handicapper. SO FLAT has raced more than any of today’s rivals and good credentials in Stake competition, after winning his first 3 Open Stake races as a 2-year-old, he’s been 2nd and 3rd in his last 2 Open Stake efforts against short 4 & 5 horse fields. In Graded Stake competition, SO FLAT has 3-2nd place efforts in his 6 tries, but victory has eluded him recently. While SO FLAT is definitely a prime contender in the Jacob Hirsch, the 5-1 odds are too short, like his chances, hate his odds!
| 5 | 15 | YOUTUBER | PACE | 7.95% | SPEED | 5.59% | CLASS | 7.10% | BET VALUE | 129.48% |
| trainer | quietemper | RANK | 7 | RANK | 9 | RANK | 5 | RANK | 5 |
EARLY POSITION – MID PACK
comment … on the surface YOUTUBER’S record looks very impressive, 5 wins, 10 for 10, 100% in the money. Hard to argue that record, but if you dig deeper, you notice several reasons to question the obvious results, YOUTUBER has raced in small 7 horses or less fields in 7 of his 10 starts, his record 5-wins, 2-2nds, in his 3 starts in fields of 9 or more his record is 3-3rds, while that’s certainly not a bad record, it does question his level of actual competition. Today’s Grade-3 Jacob Hirsch is a good test for YOUTUBER to validate his record, 15-1 are generous odds for a runner that’s never been off the board, cautious approach to chances!
| 6 | 13 | SANTA BALLADO | PACE | 8.03% | SPEED | 2.51% | CLASS | 16.28% | BET VALUE | 149.45% |
| trainer | shadowmoss | RANK | 6 | RANK | 14 | RANK | 2 | RANK | 3 |
EARLY POSITION – MID PACK
comment … based on his 2-year-old record it would be hard to rate SANTA BALLADO a serious contender in this field. but based on his last 2 races, it looks as if he’s starting to fill out as a 3-year-old, he started the year with a stalking near miss in a conditioned allowance. SANTA BALLADO’S last race was a very good 3rd place effort in the Grade-1 Lets Get DIrty Stake at 17-1 odds, where he was rallied in the stretch but hung just before the wire. He’s light on credentials but improving, at 13-1 his odds are decent, not sure he’s up to the win, but I like his chances to place top-5.
| 7 | 8 | YOZE DUET | PACE | 8.51% | SPEED | 7.36% | CLASS | 5.25% | BET VALUE | 82.63% |
| trainer | altona3a | RANK | 4 | RANK | 7 | RANK | 7 | RANK | 10 |
EARLY POSITION – LEAD PACK
comment … interesting record thus far, YOZE DUET has never been worse than 5th and has provided trainer altona3a a steady source of revenue. YOZE DUET has won 5 of his 9 starts, but 4 of the 5 have come at the expense of short 4 to 7 horse fields, He did win his maiden race in a field of eleven, but that was at the low $6,250 Maiden Claim level. His best barometer for today was his 5th place finish in the 7-furlong Grade-1 Dell computer Futurity, he only missed winning by 2 lengths and finished 1/2 length behind TRIPSANITY one of today’s favorites. His 8-1 odds are an underlay, YOZE DUET is another runner I’m on the fence as to his chances, beaten 6-5 favorite last race, needs best effort!
| 8 | 8 | KIAMA ZEPHYR G | PACE | 7.20% | SPEED | 4.05% | CLASS | 9.16% | BET VALUE | 84.91% |
| trainer | worldclass | RANK | 9 | RANK | 11 | RANK | 3 | RANK | 8 |
EARLY POSITION – MID PACK
comment … there’s lots of things to like about KIAMA ZEPHYR G, he’s versatile, has won on turf and dirt, he has decent early speed but also has shown good stamina, having won already at 8 1/2 furlong route distance. He has finished a solid 2nd in the Grade-3 Montana Futurity, losing by a head at 5 1/2 furlongs. It’s hard to pinpoint his early position in the Jacob Hirsch as he’s been competing in route’s in 5 of his last 6 races. I’m guessing trainer worldclass is using the Jacob Hirsch to not only gauge the level of competition, but also the distance that best suits his runner. Lots of positives and lots of questions, I would like a bit more than 8-1 odds, but I also like KIAMA ZEPHYR G’S upside potential!
| 9 | 7 | TIZ IMPISH | PACE | 9.12% | SPEED | 8.65% | CLASS | 6.64% | BET VALUE | 83.08% |
| trainer | grassyknoll | RANK | 3 | RANK | 5 | RANK | 6 | RANK | 9 |
EARLY POSITION – ON OR NEAR THE LEAD
comment … not a lot of mystery about trainer grassyknoll’s strategy for his colt TIZ IMPISH in the Jacob Hirsch. TIZ IMPISH is 3 for 3 in races where he’s gotten the early lead and held on wire to wire, in the other 5 starts he’s got a 2nd place finish in an Open Stake as his only real accomplishment. There’s 3 or 4 in this field that will challenge for the early lead so it’s certainly not a given, the good news is that TIZ IMPISH has shown he can carry his speed beyond 6 furlongs so if he gets there, he’s got a decent shot to hold together. I’d feel lot more comfortable at odds of 10 or 12 to 1 rather than the 7-1 2nd favorite’s role, must respect early speed!
| 10 | 14 | DEEP WOODS OFF | PACE | 5.97% | SPEED | 5.50% | CLASS | 4.14% | BET VALUE | 102.50% |
| trainer | mattress | RANK | 11 | RANK | 10 | RANK | 10 | RANK | 6 |
EARLY POSITION – REAR PACK
comment … another case of a runner who has been feasting on smaller fields, DEEP WOODS OFF has 6 wins in 9 races and is 8 for 9 in the money, 89%. He has made 2 tries against Open Stake company, in the first try he finished 3rd in a field of 6, in his 2nd last race he took on a field of 12 and finished 11th. This will be a huge step up in class and a real test of where DEEP WOODS OFF’S competition level is currently. While 14-1 odds are fair, he’s certainly a longshot to win the Jacob Hirsch, hard to determine class level!
| 11 | 9 | ATLANTIC DOOTSIN | PACE | 9.72% | SPEED | 3.17% | CLASS | 4.69% | BET VALUE | 71.21% |
| trainer | zcutty | RANK | 2 | RANK | 12 | RANK | 8 | RANK | 12 |
EARLY POSITION – ON OR NEAR THE LEAD
comment … I’m going to go out on a limb but if there’s any runner in today’s Jacob Hirsch that has the potential to win the race wire to wire it’s ATLANTIC DOOTSIN. There’s certainly no guarantee that he’ll even lead early but if he does, it’s hard to see him giving it up, he’s already won a 7 1/2 furlong Open Stake wire to wire and has wired a conditioned allowance field in an 8 1/2 furlong affair. This is one time that I’m going against my program and see fair value in his 9-1 morning line odds, speed and stamina are a dangerous combination!
| 12 | 21 | THAT CAT IS CRAZY | PACE | 8.21% | SPEED | 5.72% | CLASS | 2.66% | BET VALUE | 137.41% |
| trainer | elzid | RANK | 5 | RANK | 8 | RANK | 12 | RANK | 4 |
EARLY POSITION – LEAD PACK
comment … broke his maiden in a residency Open Stake, a bit misleading as only 1 of the runners he faced has an allowance win on their record. THAT CAT IS CRAZY ran a good race last start, beating a short but evenly matched field of 6, recording a 91.314 lifetime best speed figure. Is that good enough to seriously challenge a Grade-3 event, I’ve got some doubts. At least you’re getting 21-1 odds if you fancy his chances, tough crowd will give him experience to move forward and up his game!
| 13 | 32 | UPTOWN MYSTERY | PACE | 10.63% | SPEED | 3.16% | CLASS | 7.41% | BET VALUE | 264.87% |
| trainer | mattyice2019b | RANK | 1 | RANK | 13 | RANK | 4 | RANK | 1 |
EARLY POSITION – ON OR NEAR THE LEAD
comment … with only 4 races on record and all of them on the turf, there’s obviously more questions than answers regarding UPTOWN MYSTERY’S chances in the Jacob Hirsch. He’s shown good early speed in all of his turf starts, will that carry over on dirt? He’s won at 6 furlongs but hung late in his last 2 Open Stake turf efforts at 5 & 5 1/2 furlongs, does he have the stamina? Would you bet him at odds of 32-1? These are all good, hard questions, it’s a game and lots of it’s pretty random, it’s going to be very competitive early so UPTOWN MYSTERY is kind of up against it on every angle, name is appropriate for chances today!
| 14 | 9 | MACHAPUCHARE | PACE | 3.17% | SPEED | 11.91% | CLASS | 2.86% | BET VALUE | 75.25% |
| trainer | plano9 | RANK | 13 | RANK | 2 | RANK | 11 | RANK | 11 |
EARLY POSITION – NEAR THE REAR
comment … lightly raced, but definitely on the improve. Even though it’s his first crack at Stake racing at any level, at least we know MACHAPUCHARE is coming into the Jacob Hirsch fit and sharp off the 2 best races of his career. He conquered allowance nw-2L and quickly followed that win with his best lifetime race moving up another allowance rung rallying late to notch an allowance nw-3L. MACHAPUCHARE recorded a lifetime best 101.342 speed figure winning that last allowance event and that should set him up nicely for his first crack at Stakes level competition. He’s 9-1, a bit short considering it’s his first Stake try, but he is fit and in good form. He’ll have to win from far back, that’s never easy, so I consider him a really good in the money prospect!