Preview – G2 The German 2000 Guineas

Off we go to Germany this week for this G2 battle on the turf. Some of the best 3 year old milers will take part in this event. Here is the field:

#1 Boondock Return (Pastures of Green) 4/1

As A 2 Year Old: Started his career with a pair of dirt races that left a bit to be desired. The move to turf helped, but so did the increase in distance later in the 2 year old campaign. His speed figures kept improving and he won both allowance routes he was in to end his juvenile season.

As A 3 Year Old: He is two races in and still improving. The jump to stakes competition in the Prospect Learn didn’t phase him as he looked very professional coming from way back (13 lengths at one point) to win going away. Both races over 100 and still improving.

Outlook: He has won 4 in a row and seems to get better with each race. Beautifully bred and is in this with a big chance to continue his win streak.

#2 Denials (East-West Connection) 5/1

As A 2 Year Old: A tale of two stories for him in his juvenile season. Routing in allowance races he looked very much the part. A 2nd and a victory with improving speed figures. However, his two attempts in stake races saw a much different outcome with a 9th and 14th place line by his name. 

As A 3 Year Old: 2 for 2 and more importantly he got over those stake race disasters with a win last out in the Prospector Doc. The speed figures have improved as well and he got over that 100 plateau which is key in a race like this.

Outlook: Back to back wins and finally got over that stake inconsistency. Like the jump in figures. Should be in the mix late and wouldn’t be a surprise. Contender.

#3 Aussie Zoo (Only Stayers) 11/1

As a 2 Year Old: A 3 race win streak to start his career as he progressed through the allowance ranks. He ended his season with a fading 3rd in the Pepes Pipes. This was the first time he hadn’t seen the lead as he led throughout all 3 of his first races.

As A 3 Year Old: He sure likes getting out of the gate quickly, but hasn’t had the stamina to make it last in his 2 stakes tries this season. Wasn’t a complete disaster as he finished middle of the pack (4th and 5th), so probably deserves one more chance here.

Outlook: It is hard to back a horse that needs to do something it has never done before. This one either needs to change its running style or hold the lead with stakes competition. Two big ifs for this one to see the podium.

#4 Byram (East-West Connection) 6/1

As A 2 Year Old: Scratch that poly start off the record and his season made a bit more sense. Progressed through his levels and tried the stakes at the end of the year. The 6th in the Unbridled Group was a bit disappointing as he faded badly down the stretch.

As A 3 Year Old: 2 for 2 this season. Won the allowance mile in demanding fashion and was impressed with the huge jump in speed figure to take down the Cannon in D. He won going away by 2 ¼ lengths and with that jump in figure got to triple digits.

Outlook: Wouldn’t have thought this one would be a factor until he popped that big race last one out. If he can put that same race together again would have to consider him to have a legitimate chance here.

#5 Kat Kat Shalouf (No Residency) 3/1

As A 2 Year Old: Took 4 starts to break his maiden, but looked the part when he did. The added distance helped this one as the season progressed. Finished the year with a nice allowance win leaving some optimism for the future.

As A 3 Year Old: Started 2 for 2 with another nice allowance win and a victory in the Ball Ban. Made the jump to graded stakes next out and was a bit overwhelmed there at 6-1 odds. Meant that he probably belonged and that experience should help him here.

Outlook: Back to back races with triple digits and a recent experience edge made this one the favorite in the morning line. Needs that little progression to get it done, but should be right in the mix with this group.

#6 Bonebooster (Universal Racing Club) 12/1

As A 2 Year Old: Patiently started his two year old season working his way through some of the allowance ranks. Won his first two starts routing on the turf in front running style. His last one of the year was slightly disappointing as he faded to fifth in a NW3L.

As A 3 Year Old: A lone start in his 3 year old season had him taking part in the G3 Dracula going the same distance as today. Was a longshot and faded badly to 10th in that one. Hoping the experience helps here.

Outlook: Will need to boost that speed figure, but one of a bunch who has graded experience. The 12-1 morning line is probably fair as will need to see more for this one to be competitive here.

#7 Lovely Dragon (Universal Racing Club) 13/1

As A 2 Year Old: Another one who seemed to hit his stride as the distances increased. Had a nice 4 race winning streak which included a win in the G2 Bedford. Finished the year in the G1 Futurity and as a 17-1 shot didn’t really disappoint. Was picking up pieces late and finished 6th only 2 ¾ back of the winner.

As A 3 Year Old: He is making his 3 year old debut in this race.

Outlook: Tough to gauge as others in here have seen a boost at the start of their 3 year old seasons. Might be a tough ask first time out as a 3 year old.

#8 BK The Ferryman (Drunken Jockey Club) 18/1

As A 2 Year Old: Broke his maiden on the dirt, but stayed on the turf for the rest of his successful 2 year old campaign. Is the only one in the field with a G1 win under his belt and he did it with a head victory in the G1 High Flyer. Finished the year competing in the G1 Futurity but faded to a disappointing 14th place.

As A 3 Year Old: Disappointing start with 2 graded race attempts. He was a non-factor in both, only beating two horses, while finishing 12th and 13th. The decrease in his speed figures is of greater concern for him.

Outlook: Only G1 winner here, but boy those last 2 have been ugly. Maybe cutting back to a mile will help him but those speed figures aren’t increasing like others here. Would be the surprise of the field.

#9 Yadalla Prime (European Union Racing Organization) 8/1

As A 2 Year Old: Can’t complain about his 2 year old season as he was a perfect 4 for 4. Broke his maiden and then took 3 straight stakes victories going 7F. The speed figures also kept improving. What more could we ask for?

As A 3 Year Old: Began the year with another victory in the Maraudinski and put up his perfect record sprinting in the G1 Equinics. Was an 8-1 shot there, but never really got it into gear. Speed figures have dipped a bit, something to watch heading into this one.

Outlook: Hard to nitpick a horse with 4 stake victories and 5 of 6 lifetime. I think the move to the mile will be more in this one’s comfort zone. Wouldn’t surprise me to see a bounceback effort here.

#10 Persian War Front (No Residency) 6/1

As A 2 Year Old: Broke his maiden 2nd race in while going a mile. Followed that up with 2 more victories in a row, an allowance win and a Galt House victory. His speed figures moved in the right direction. Liked how he waited for those routes, which he seems to be the fit for.

As A 3 Year Old: Only 1 start in the G1 VT Is 4 Lovers and ran a respectable 5th. His speed figure didn’t get a boost into that triple digit range, but might have needed a start before this one.

Outlook: Scaling back a mile makes sense for him. Wasn’t out of place last out in a tougher field, so if he can use that to take a step forward will be able to compete with these ones.

The Field In Numbers

Horse	Speed2yr	Speed3yr	SpeedDist	Total Points
Kat Kat Shalouf	95.3	101.8	100.9	24
Byram	87.7	103.8	103.8	21
Denials	92.3	102.1	98.6	21
Persian War Front	98.2	98.4	89.7	18
Boondock Return	90.1	106.4	89	16
Bonebooster	88.2	95.8	95.8	15
Yadalla Prime	98.4	94.6	N/A	14
Lovely Dragon	94.6	N/A	94.6	13
BK The Ferryman	94.3	88.2	94.3	12
Aussie Zoo	87.4	94.7	94.7	11

Prediction

#4 – Undefeated at a mile. Like his style in this one as he continues to improve

#1 – Comes from way back. Just doesn’t get up in time in the mile cutback.

#9 – Regains his form as he stretches out to a route for the first time.