Preserving Memories Of Hialeah? Hallelujah!
Instead of aiming for some clever gambit to introduce the pre-race article about the Grade II $200,000 Hallelujah Turf Cup, allow me to vent just a little.
[rant]
I hate south Florida racing, in the real world. What I hate isn’t the racing itself, per se, but the way Gulfstream and Calder a few years ago muscled out Hialeah from taking part in racing. When Florida deregulated their system of giving racing dates to all three tracks, Hialeah didn’t help themselves by opting to go head-to-head with Gulfstream. Gulfstream won the battle, and eventually between Gulfstream taking control of winter racing and Calder’s expansion into the remainder of the calendar left no room for Hialeah to operate with profitability. Hialeah has been shuttered since 2001, its stables razed, its famous flamingos imported to zoos, and its existence threatened by development in spite of having been listed twice in the National Register of Historic Places. In the interim, Gulfstream has gone from a major pinnacle of winter racing to a randomly criticized mess, between its reconfiguration and renovation into a faceless “racino” that de-emphasized its famous racing for its casino games. And Calder is still around, with a racetrack surface that produces racing which is the equivalent of running uphill in molasses (or, on a rainy day, chocolate pudding), and a racing calendar that makes the inner-track winter at Aqueduct seem borderline tolerable.
Gulfstream is still a winter destination for most Eastern horsemen, and Calder does have its merits, between the Summit of Speed, the Florida Stallion series, and quality racing on turf in its eight whole months of continuous racing. I’m not knocking what they provide to racing itself. But I don’t forget they pushed out of existence, with some help from the people who operated Hialeah in its last 15 years or so, a racetrack that has both historical and practical value to horsemen and fans alike. The game has changed, and there’s no arguing with progress. But Hialeah has merit as a historical site, to protect history, and surely some way can or should be found to reincorporate the track into the racing circuit. Like Calder really needs all 8 months it operates for the scads of maiden claimers for two-year-olds it floods the market with beginning in the summer. Anyway, I am grateful both tracks exist, but I dislike the way the circuit has transformed from competitiveness to monotony and another case of progress overriding common sense.
[/rant]
I am glad the Sim exists, because it can incorporate some of Hialeah’s historic races into its own circuit and still get a big field while honoring the memory. The real-world Hialeah Turf Cup produced, in its prime, some legendary winners. John Henry, anyone? How about Theatrical, or Bowl Game, the champion mare? Or Awad, Drumtop (the dam of Topsider) or El Senor? That’s some pretty good company, y’know. In the Sim, the Hallelujah Turf Cup hasn’t done too badly, with the stakes record of 1:53 4/5 set three years ago by Tern Of The Wheel. Causes Wood(IRE), Hawiian Lord, and Black Air(IRE) are among the luminaries who captured this race in years past (with Hawiian Lord earning the best speed figure of them all here, a 114 for the mile and three-sixteenths back in 2002). This year’s field includes Grade III winners Woette’s Delight and Ghetto Muppet, and Lear Park, who with a win joins the select group to have earned $1,000,000 in career earnings; he’s about $62,500 short.
Pardon the ranting and raving, and look at the field:
Praetorian Perfect [Roman Ruler-Auror World, by Spinning World, bred in Kentucky by trainer empirez for Nextbonus Racing]
As he approaches what arguably is the beginning of peak time for a Sim horse, this one has responded by cracking the 110 speed figure mark twice this year thus far. He cuts back in distance from an eleven-furlong stakes last out, where he was third but tired, and the turnback in distance should be to his benefit. This distance is not his best one, as he’s 0-for-1 at the mile and three-sixteenths distance, and he has earned better results, including his two stakes wins, going up to a furlong longer. Still, two stakes wins is certainly credible, plus the speed figures recently earned him a spot as third choice in the wagering. He likes to come from off the pace, but not from far out of things, and loves the grass to be sure. But he makes his graded debut here, and even at his peak, his first outing into graded company means a rise in the class of the foes he’s facing. Even in spite of all that, his recent form leaves him poised to make a splash against some inconsistent opposition, and he might just be set up for a big year with a good result likely here.
Black West [Gone West-Ela’s Storm, by Black Minnaloushe, bred in Kentucky by trainer freek for Karie’s Super Stables]
Here’s another one entering a certain peak period of his young career; where Praetorian Perfect is making start #18, Black West is coming in at start #15. I am particularly impressed with the methodical way this colt has been brought along, not being placed at a distance he has yet to handle and not rushing him to get a mile and a half before he could get, say, a mile and an eighth. He’s a deep threat, usually making a cavalry charge from deep behind the leader. That almost worked expertly two back, where he was more than sixteen lengths behind and rallied late, only to come up a half-length short. He can get a mile and an eighth, as proven by his 110 in a stakes win last out, and the extra sixteenth at first blush seems within his scope. There is a modest pace to chase here, but it doesn’t appear to be anything that could irreparably harm his chances. Class might be another story, though, as his previous graded race was a fair and game effort in the Grade III Violin Mile last fall. The late run was a deep one, but with muted results, yet it was not done at his optimum distance. He hasn’t quite found that distance yet, which is a good thing, but much more than today’s nine-and-a-half furlongs might be asking a little much. It should be noted that even with the furious rally for second two back, the subsequent return to nine furlongs produced a win, as well as a higher speed figure that is closer to what might be required to get the win here.
St. Agur [Theatrical(IRE) x Nijinsky II, bred in Kentucky by syo3 for trainer lenny13 representing The Evil Empire]
He makes his thirtieth start here, and it should be said that his recent speed figures do not necessarily reflect this horse’s abilities, particularly at this distance. In fact, he’s 2-for-4 at today’s distance, no result worse than third, and his last two speed figures at the distance were a 104 and a 110, respectively. Since that 110 last November, however, he’s been in a slump, beginning with the 104 in the Grade I Pennsylvania Handicap just before last Christmas, and extending through his first three outings this year. He prefers to sit closer to the pace most times, moving with about a half-mile left to the front. It’s usually served him well against lesser competition, but in graded action, it’s been a wild diversity of result. His best graded finish was a third in last June’s Grade I NY Island Handicap on New Yorker Day, which was a solid but unspectacular result considering he wasn’t a factor in the result. At the distance in a listed he’s a considerable force, but even if this field isn’t stacked with most of the top 20 within the division he should have some say in the outcome, with the pace scenario not exactly heralding a lot of hot and heavy speed. A shorter distance should give him a boost here, but the recent form (hitting the board in two stakes going longer, two eighth-place finishes in races at or around this distance but with slightly elevated speed figures) gives one a little pause.
Spice [Sumitas(GER) x Tabasco Cat, bred in Germany by volare for trainer lalakers8 representing Lakers32 Stables]
Here’s the likely pace control, a consistent vet who is a born leader with a regular string of good results, but without a graded race in his career before now. He’s the one with a regular routine of heading to the front and trying to gut races out from gate to wire. And he can get results: he’s unbeaten in two races at the distance, and both of those were stakes wins, one with a five and three-quarter length margin. He’s fast from the gate, and has the heart to step up to stakes level repeatedly, with two stakes wins and six finishes on the board in eight stakes outings. And the speed figures are quite solid, in the high end of the 100s most of the time. Plus, he’s got a mini-rivalry with Black West going on: Black West won last out in Wyoming, getting revenge on a defeat to Spice two back in northern California. He’s also faced Lear Park and St. Auger, and lost to them in both instances. That’s the issue here, his inconsistency against more seasoned opposition, and this time, he’s not just facing one of them, he’s got all of these three and then some to try and take down. And recently he’s been less successful at lulling his foes into defeat on the lead, with his defeats coming by slim margins each time. He’s a gamer, he’s fast, he’s certainly up to the level of competition here, but is he fast enough to hold on against a lot of titans in one spot? He’s certainly likely to be in for a share of the purse, but in his graded debut, all alone on the lead, whether he can gut one out at this level is suspect.
Woette’s Delight [Falbrav(IRE)-Dagety Bay, by Sadler’s Wells, bred by trainer totje for The royalstables of Ostend]
He’s got back class and two graded wins, plus a win at the distance in four tries. So why is his recent form rather middling? He was, to coin a phrase, precocious at two, winning the Grade III Grand Critter and finishing a strong fourth in the 2004 Breeders Bowl Juvenile Turf. At 3, he was a quality miler who just missed in a pair of Grade I races. At 4, he was a multiple stakes winner, with his strongest effort coming at a mile and an eighth. And last year at 5, he regained some of his dimmed luster by winning the Grade III King George BB Stakes. But times have gotten tougher recently, even with a win at this distance; he hasn’t won since last September, and only broke the 100-figure mark once, when turning back to a mile when fourth in a stakes two back, in his ’08 debut. Graded winners must always be respected at least a little bit, and this one is no exception. But the distance, even with successes previously, does seem to be just a little beyond his scope, with just the one win at this distance, and most of his other wins coming at races shorter than this one. He is a closer, which is always a plus with races that don’t contain a lot of speed options, and his one win at the distance did produce a solid 104. But his recent races have been, frankly, not very good at all, with a recent eleventh-place finish following a pair of no-factor fourths. And the last-out speed figure of just an 85, coming at what historically has been an ideal distance for him, is painful at this level of competition. His historical numbers here are fairly decent, but his chances to match them against a tough field at this distance aren’t comforting.
Lear Park [Ecton Park x Lear Fan, bred in Kentucky by trainer kino for Back of the Pack Stables, Inc.]
He’s the horse of the hour in this field, as he just requires a stakes win here to put him over the $1,000,000 hump in earnings. Can he get that here? It’s unclear, because he’s a miler and not a solid route expert. He’s got a stakes win, and a third-place finish, at the distance, and a win going a mile and a quarter, with some respectable speed figures to accompany those two strong efforts at today’s distance (a 108 for the stakes win, a 101 for the third-place finish). And he’s been in the money 25 of 28 grass starts, which bodes very well for him to pick up a check here. He’s the lone Grade I winner in the field, with a win in last September’s Canada Mile, and the mile seems to be his favorite thing in the Sim to do. He was third earlier in the year in the Grade III Race 5 Ramblings, and fifth last fall in the Breeders Bowl Mile. In fact, his stakes figures even now at the mile distance average just over 110. Why I’m citing chapter and verse here on his stats is because his average speed figures at this distance and beyond in his stakes history averages in the low-to-mid 100’s, which isn’t typically good enough at this level to win a graded race. So, he’s bucking his own historical trend in this field, though he has more than enough back class to compensate; you don’t get ranked #15 just by reputation. Still, though his numbers suggest this is less supreme confidence by his connections than a training tool for later on, his recent form remains consistently very good, with a third last out in the Grade III Misfired Bogie last out that got him a good 104 figure. He’ll likely sit just off the early leader here and make a stalker’s move later on, but even if he did hit a 113 going nine furlongs in February, this Grade III is going to require staying power that hasn’t historically been on his side. He may inch closer to the million mark here, but whether he gets beyond that depends on just how much staying power he’ll have against a veteran field of stayers.
Ghetto Muppet [Rock Of Gibraltar(IRE) Stop Nop And Roll(NZ), by Zabeel(NZ), bred by trainer elnop for Elnop Stables]
A two-time Grade III winner with a very unforgettable name, this horse has a solid parallel with Lear Park in that he’s a capable middle-distance horse whose historical numbers at this distance and beyond don’t support positive results at this distance this time around. He’s 0-for-2 at this distance, the farthest he’s run to date in his career. But his average speed figure is only a 95. That’s not a comforting stat here, either; his graded win last summer in the Philly Cheese Steak Turf indicates that he’s usually just more competitive at or around a mile. He’s also not edged above a 109 since 2006, though recent form does suggest that with his closing style, coming from well off the pace, the door cannot be completely closed on attempts at the distance. That his last-out 109 at a mile and an eighth equals his career-best figure in eighteen months hints at a recent peak on his form, which includes four times picking up a paycheck in each of his last four outings, including the Grade III Utah BB Mile last fall, where he was fourth. It’s an upswing in his speed figures at the right time, but he’s still 0-for-1 in graded races at or beyond nine furlongs, and in this field, he may require a similar strong effort. Nevertheless, he might be in the right place at the right time to pull a surprise at an unproven distance, and it’s the strategies on which his success here may depend.
Shriver Mine [Dynaformer-Snow Snakes(FR), by Irish River(FR), bred in Kentucky by trainer shawke for Jrogue Stables]
He’s making just his sixteenth start, but this one is primed for a step out into the limelight here. All but his first two starts were between nine and fourteen furlongs, so even with a light résumé he does have experience running all day at a preferred distance of ground. He is only stakes-placed in his career, though he has cleared his allowance conditions and was a much improved, late-closing fourth last time out in the Grade III Misfired Bogie. His speed figures are still rather meager for this level of competition and distance, which does put him up against it a little bit; there’s nothing higher than his last-out 103. But he is still hovering around his most preferred distance to compete at, and this field doesn’t come up quite that strong in proven contenders at both level and distance. He likes to sit just off the pace and play the waiting game, and in this particular field that might prove to be an ideal way to go. The Grade III last time was a quite encouraging sign, and hints that he might be hitting his best stride here as well. Make no mistake, there’s a lot of improvement that’s required to get the job done here, but he is poised to run an effort big enough to begin to make an impact in the division, and this race is odd enough in that there are a lot of contenders who are talented enough in their own right, for whom this race might not necessarily be the most precise, snug fit for their abilities. He appears more comfortable here than most, so there’s an intimation of sorts that this could be a contender for a surprise at a price.
Weapon X [Sadler’s Wells x Exclusive Native, bred by trainer tesio for Galileo Stables]
Another deep closer, another horse who might be just at the edge of his preferred distance, another horse who can make a solid case for eking out a strong performance here. He was a good, late-kicking fourth last out in the Grade III Boogity Bear, which earned him a very competitive 109 speed figure. Two back, though, was a more impressive late kick, one that helped him make up ten lengths in the last quarter-mile. He still came up a length short of the win, but it encouraged his very successful connections to take a chance on the graded race last out. His nine-furlong speed figures are very encouraging; his ten-furlong numbers are less so, but those came rather early in his career. The extra sixteenth these days shouldn’t be much of a bother. He has developed into a rising star in the turf route division, and a solid performance will increase the speed of his rise. The lack of stakes seasoning is neutralized by his recent fourth in the Boogity Bear, and in a field where no one seems like a fit on form, history and/or ability, he’s another solid contender for the win. The question is whether race strategies will set his late kick up nicely enough, or if his natural ability will even need some help for his best race.
Dwyck [Spinning World x Dubai Millennium(GB), bred in Australia by trainer willyam13 for Willyam13 Stables]
Making his eighteenth start, he’s only recently started getting acquainted with stakes company, with a two-length win last out in Connecticut. This marks his first foray into graded company, and this is another fine example of a trainer bringing a horse along in just a steady fashion, not giving him more distance than he can handle unless he proves he can master distances he’s already run at. This marks his first try beyond a mile and an eighth, and he’s looking for his fifth win in a row. These are reasonably good signs, but with this one we’re starting to wait for the other shoe to drop, against graded foes now. He’s another one who prefers to sit in mid-pack and wait for an opening, but where he might be up against it is that he’s never faced a field quite as deep as this one. He took nine tries to break his maiden before succeeding, which is an angle at this level I like to see, because it’s a sign of a never-say-die attitude towards a stable. That kind of patience can pay off, in a Sim where the opposite seems more true. That aside, though, the pedigree does tend to hint that much beyond a mile is like straying too far out of town, so that one gets lost. The speed figures are creeping up at the right time, with maybe some improvement needed on that last-out 106 to prove he can hold his own at this level, but he faces a staunch class test in this slot; we’ll start to find out just where his ceiling lies here.
Ruin [Galileo(IRE)-Doggie Walacki, by Kris S., bred in Ireland by trainer theagakhan for Galileo Stables]
Making his fourteenth start is Weapon X‘s stablemate. His speed figures still hang in the low-to-mid 100s, but he’s kept some mighty fine company recently, with a second in the Panhandle Derby and a seventh in the Haw Haw Derby, both Grade III races for three-year-olds last fall. His weapon is also to close from the pack, but unlike his entrymate, he prefers to be much closer, in the middle of the peloton, before moving in for the kill. He’s certainly solid enough to compete against stakes foes, even in spite of not winning a stakes race yet. He’s faced some strong fields last year, but he’s been finding his own level and been running well against them. A 101 (last-out figure when beaten almost two lengths in a ten-furlong stakes) is probably not going to cut it here, but a slight cutback in distance should help improve things. He’s on the right track, and wasn’t far away from a breakthrough last fall, but it’s still going to take some more development before he finds his best stride against graded opposition. But he’s not far away from kicking the door in.
Fearsome [Fusaichi Pegasus x Deputy Minister, bred in Kentucky by trainer avalanche3 for Squirrel Stables]
The dirt portion of his career was a hit-and-miss affair, but the surface switch to turf connected big time, with a hard-charging head-bob win in the Grade III Boogity Bear last out that earned him a 111 speed figure, the best last-out number in the field. That was over a very nice field of talented runners, including Weapon X, Ollie’s Gone and Last Groom T, and it came by just a narrow margin from well back in the pack. It was his first stakes win in four grass tries, and it was the farthest distance at which he has won a race. He is, however, 0-for-1 at today’s distance, and his post position is rather lousy even at a distance such as this. He’s a deep threat, though, which helps minimize the damage, and should be coming from well out of it late with a good, wide late run. But this is also a Jekyll & Hyde horse: that 111 figure and Grade III win came after a flop going a sixteenth longer than this, in which he was seventh and earned a 93 in a listed stakes. The 111 seems truer, but can he handle that extra sixteenth against some seasoned closers in this Grade II? That’s difficult to say here, as again even with the late closing kick being so strong there are others here who are just as talented doing that, and he has yet to establish that the extra sixteenth will not be an issue.
It’s a fairly wide open affair, at a distance that a lot of horses in here haven’t shown beyond a doubt they are quite talented at, so it’s a bit of a crapshoot as to whose advantage this race’s conditions will truly favor.
My selections:
1. Praetorian Perfect
2. Fearsome
3. Weapon X
4. Ghetto Muppet
5. Lear Park
Good luck to all, and happy racing.