GRADE-2 THE TURF QUEEN
Victoria-AUS (VIC)
Saturday, April 2, 2022 — 2:30:00 PM EST | Race ID : 2801233
The Turf Queen
Grade II / Group 2*CPU – Purse : $375,000
Restricted to 3 Year Olds and Older, Fillies and Mares Only
7.5 Furlongs | ~1500 Meters | Fifteen Sixteenths of a Mile Firm Turf
UNDERLAY / OVERLAY RACE STUDY (thru 04/01/2022):
| total races | 83 | total horses | 1153 | ||||
| underlays | 295 | wins | 21 | places | 28 | show | 20 |
| win % | 7.119% | place % | 9.492% | ||||
| avg win pay | $14.82 | avg plc pay | $7.86 | ||||
| win ROI $ | -$0.94 | place ROI $ | -$0.69 | ||||
| overlays | 332 | wins | 38 | places | 30 | show | 28 |
| win % | 11.446% | place % | 9.036% | ||||
| avg win pay | $26.75 | avg plc pay | $7.86 | ||||
| win ROI $ | $1.06 | place ROI $ | $0.64 | ||||
| non-select | 526 | wins | 24 | places | 25 | show | 35 |
| win % | 4.563% | place % | 4.753% | ||||
| avg win pay | $30.04 | avg plc pay | $13.59 | ||||
| win ROI $ | -$0.63 | place ROI $ | -$0.73 |
Here’s the capsule breakdown for the 14 entries:
| 1 | 17 | WOETTE’S PYRAMID | PACE | 10.19% | SPEED | 8.44% | CLASS | 7.07% | BET VALUE | 163.76% |
| trainer | woette7 | RANK | 2 | RANK | 5 | RANK | 7 | RANK | 1 |
EARLY POSITION – ON OR NEAR LEAD
comment … has won 3 in a row, finished in the money in 12 of 13 career starts. She’s placed in both Open Stakes efforts, only initial Grade-3 try unsuccessful, chance to make amends here!
| 2 | 17 | HASHTAG HOPE | PACE | 9.90% | SPEED | 7.97% | CLASS | 5.30% | BET VALUE | 148.79% |
| trainer | littlebitii | RANK | 3 | RANK | 8 | RANK | 8 | RANK | 2 |
EARLY POSITION – ON OR NEAR LEAD
comment … already won an Open Stake at this 7.5-furlong distance. She’s 0 for 5 in route racing and has 4 wins in 6 sprint tries, cutback in distance may be just what the doctor ordered!
| 3 | 6 | SOPHIE HOHENBERG | PACE | 9.51% | SPEED | 8.32% | CLASS | 8.25% | BET VALUE | 70.19% |
| trainer | harasauxerre3 | RANK | 5 | RANK | 7 | RANK | 4 | RANK | 12 |
EARLY POSITION – LEAD PACK
comment – winner of 5 Open Stake events, hasn’t been able to crack the code to win at Graded level, Good versatile style, can track or lead, but 7.5 furlongs may be the edge of her stamina limits.
| 4 | 8 | FIRE WHISKEY | PACE | 10.76% | SPEED | 7.78% | CLASS | 8.09% | BET VALUE | 87.62% |
| trainer | kaner13 | RANK | 1 | RANK | 11 | RANK | 5 | RANK | 10 |
EARLY POSITION – ON OR NEAR LEAD
comment … speedy runner will try to bust out early. This will be her first crack at graded company after 18 career starts. FIRE WHISKEY has 2 Open Stake wins under her belt, 7.5-furlongs will test her stamina, but early speed is always dangerous!
| 5 | 13 | MAYBE NO DOUBT | PACE | 2.15% | SPEED | 1.80% | CLASS | 1.79% | BET VALUE | 63.62% |
| trainer | corzak9 | RANK | 13 | RANK | 13 | RANK | 13 | RANK | 13 |
EARLY POSITION – NEAR THE REAR
comment … likes to fall back early and launch a late rally, all of her success is at 8.5-furlongs or longer. With only a Maiden win on her resume’ today’s field looks like an “uphill” task, tough spot!
| 6 | 6 | FROZEN PROFIT | PACE | 8.00% | SPEED | 7.84% | CLASS | 13.18% | BET VALUE | 85.85% |
| trainer | japan99 | RANK | 6 | RANK | 10 | RANK | 2 | RANK | 11 |
EARLY POSITION – MID PACK
comment … sharp form off 3 straight Open Stakes wins, has the tracking style that suits this distance. The consummate sprinter, FROZEN PROFIT has been at the top of her game since Sept. 2021, legitimate favorite!
| 7 | 5 | SECRET CABAL TB | PACE | 5.75% | SPEED | 9.00% | CLASS | 23.28% | BET VALUE | 104.15% |
| trainer | sremel72 | RANK | 12 | RANK | 1 | RANK | 1 | RANK | 5 |
EARLY POSITION … NEAR THE REAR
comment … like a “fine” wine, SECRET CABAL TB is definitely getting better with age. Two years ago, she was running against 20K claimers, last race she missed winning a Grade-1 event at these conditions by 3/4 length. Remarkable turnaround, looking for a repeat performance!
| 8 | 10 | NEW SPIRIT LADY | PACE | 6.80% | SPEED | 8.65% | CLASS | 4.53% | BET VALUE | 98.43% |
| trainer | stockswami23 | RANK | 9 | RANK | 4 | RANK | 10 | RANK | 7 |
EARLY POSITION – REAR MID PACK
comment … with a win vs. Open Stake company at these conditions and a fine 3rd place Grade-3 finish, NEW SPIRIT LADY has shown she has the ability to compete at this level. A bit inconsistent, but her 10-1 odds are just about right!
| 9 | 9 | STILL RAISE HELL | PACE | 6.15% | SPEED | 7.91% | CLASS | 4.74% | BET VALUE | 88.58% |
| trainer | upandatom | RANK | 10 | RANK | 9 | RANK | 9 | RANK | 9 |
EARLY POSITION – REAR PACK
comment … all eleven of STILL RAISE HELL’S sprint races have been good efforts and while she’s won 3 of them, she’s cashed a paycheck in all eleven. A win is possible, a top 5 finish is likely!
| 10 | 10 | FALLEN TYCOON | PACE | 9.74% | SPEED | 8.76% | CLASS | 9.54% | BET VALUE | 124.69% |
| trainer | redhill26 | RANK | 4 | RANK | 2 | RANK | 3 | RANK | 4 |
EARLY POSITION – LEAD PACK
comment … with 3 Open Stake wins and 11 top 3 finishes in 13 starts, throw in 10-1 odds and it’s hard to not like FALLEN TYCOON’S chances in the Turf Queen. About the only question is will she “bounce” off 2 consecutive wins, setting personal best speed ratings in both. I don’t know the answer, but I like her chances!
| 11 | 11 | POWER THROUGH | PACE | 7.62% | SPEED | 8.76% | CLASS | 7.58% | BET VALUE | 126.95% |
| trainer | galileo | RANK | 7 | RANK | 3 | RANK | 6 | RANK | 3 |
EARLY POSITION – MID PACK
comment … lightly raced 5-year-old mare, POWER THROUGH has moved quickly and steadily up the class “ladder”. Logical entry after 2 Open Stake wins, also testing her with a bit more distance, enticing 11-1 odds, all systems go!
| 12 | 12 | NAVIGATING MOON | PACE | 7.61% | SPEED | 6.42% | CLASS | 3.54% | BET VALUE | 103.63% |
| trainer | raceck | RANK | 8 | RANK | 12 | RANK | 11 | RANK | 6 |
EARLY POSITION – MID PACK
comment … interesting runner, looks equally comfortable on turf or dirt. Stretching out a bit, shouldn’t hamper her too much but this is a “tough” field so NAVIGATING MOON will need to move forward another level to compete for win!
| 13 | 10 | BELLE OF MALIBU | PACE | 5.80% | SPEED | 8.35% | CLASS | 3.13% | BET VALUE | 96.33% |
| trainer | mtklaamistad | RANK | 11 | RANK | 6 | RANK | 12 | RANK | 8 |
EARLY POSITION – REAR PACK
comment … after “hanging” in the stretch in her initial Maiden effort, BELLE OF MALIBU has used a hard charging stretch rally to propel her to 6 wins and 9 of 9 in the money finishes. She’ll be “flying” late, hard to not see a top 5 finish in the cards!
My opening charts show you the results of my underlay and overlay spotlight selections since 01/15/2022, I’ll try to update them weekly so you can see how effective they are at highlighting potential winners! As usual, good luck to all entries!
Here’s the program Spotlight runners:
| UNDERLAY SPOTLIGHT | OVERLAY SPOTLIGHT | |
| FROZEN PROFIT | SECRET CABAL TB | |
| FIRE WHISKEY | FALLEN TYCOON | |
| SOPHIE HOHENBERG | POWER THROUGH | |
| NEW SPIRIT LADY | WOETTE’S PYRAMID |