2022 Equinics- The Orangutans

The Equinics are here!!!  Let’s give a cheer!!!

Let’s take a look at the race that is at the longest distance, the 2-mile dirt race with a $1,250,000 purse, is open to all 4 year-olds and up.  The weather people are telling us they expect a 0% chance of precipitation for race day, but I’ve seen them be wrong before.  But we’ll assume they will be right and handicap for a nice dry surface.  We have a nice field of horses ready to dig in for the long journey, each representing one of the many residencies that support our game.  This year’s Equinics theme is to honor the world’s species that are endangered, and this race honors the Orangutans. 

1.   10/1

SADLER’S PIRATE joins this Equinics field courtesy of the Northwest Racing Circuit residency and his owner Jubalrtledge.  The 2021 was largely successful with 4 listed stake wins being collected in all four tries at the long route distance, with a top speed of 116 coming in one of those victories at a distance of 12 furlongs.  This horse is one of the older runs competing in this field at age six and he spent the entire season racing in listed stakes and grade level races.  While he dominated in the listed stake level, he had his struggles at the graded level group.  In five tries at this high level, he hit the board twice, the first in May in the G3 Purchased Race for Stockswami where he finished third at 12f.  Sadler’s Pilate also scored a second in the G2 New Zealand Drinking Device in November going 16 furlongs.   His last three starts were in the grade level class which include that second place finish but was far back in the G1 Winter Cup and G1 Ark De Comicdog.  Sadler’s Pirate, since hitting the 116 speed, has been range bound with speeds between 104 to 106 in his last four races.  He’s had his struggles in graded company but if he can find the ability to pull off another speed in the 116 range, he could find himself walking away with a shiny prize around his neck.

2.   10/1

DUCATI MONSTER has drawn a spot into this field as the representative from the Lationos Del Mundo residency.  He’s a six-year-old who took a very long break between 2020 and 2021.  Owner Pato7, after an allowance race win in August, 2020, opted to farm this horse for a long time, but did bring the 6-year old back to the raceway in May, 2021 where he finished third with a 109 speed at 14f on his return.  He stepped up to the G2 Greatwood Cup, with hopes that the second start back after a long rest would be even better, but in Ducati’s case, it was not as he finished with a 99 speed, and well behind the winner.  But the third start after the layoff was dynamite as he struck a 117 speed and got the win in the G2 Irish Saint Legend and wired the field by three lengths.   His last two races were very good too as he won both, although they were allowance levels.  The first was a 111 speed and a 4-stride win.  His last was a prep race for the Equinics within the residency that only had four runners that he dominated over.  I think Ducati Monster is in top shape and he may be overlooked by the oddsmakers.  He has the ability to upset and I think it may be at a good price!

3.   10/1

SHADY WARLOCK is owned by Chilimac and is the Hoosier residency representative in this field.   This five-year-old War Front bred gelding that started racing in the graded race level back in June last season.  He’s had five races at this higher level with all on the turf with the exception of the G1 Hit Man, which was on the dirt and his most recent outing.  He put in a nice effort where he led most of the way, growing his lead to over five strides going into the final half-mile where he was overtaken and lost by 4 strides, finishing second.  He likes to be on the front and will more than likely be looking to do just that in the Equinics.  He has two wins in the four turf graded races which came in the G2 Longdale Cup (and his grade level best speed of 112) and the other a month later in the Longchamp Marathon (111 speed in this one) where he relaxed off the lead early on and played a stalker roll.   The other pair of graded turf races, Shady Warlock ran off the board.   He’s got talent and while he doesn’t run away with the lead early on could be good thing and may indicate he knows how to conserve some energy to keep himself there for the duration of the race.

4.    17/1

INTO DEEP EVIL enters into this field as the selected choice from DellPenn National residency and is owned by Kingranch.  In the March to June span of 2021, this horse ran a trio of races with the allowance group on the dirt where he did well with a win and pair of seconds.   He returned to the grass in July and took a nice win by over three strides, again an allowance race outing.  Come August, this late and hard closing horse moved into the local championship stake races, competing four times and bringing home two wins and a second in the process.   He scored his best speed in his most recent race with a 114 that came at 12 furlongs and was the one stake race where he finished second, by ¾-length and that came after training by well over 15 lengths at the half.   The race before that was a win at 16-furlongs but with a lower speed of 98, but was a relatively easy win that he did not have to push hard on the speed dial.  The speed figure in Into Deep Evil’s last outing was terrific and if that carries over to this big race, he could be a threat to medal.

5.   12/1

FRANK MAMBO travels to this China race as the representative of the Elite Racing Club residency and is owned by Amir1605.  He has won four times and three of those happened prior to 2021.  Thus, only one of his victories has come since then and that came in a listed stakes race, at the two-mile distance, where he pulled out an upset at 13/1 odds, rallying from 11 back at the half to draw away from the field with a solid three stride win and a 111 speed.   He’s able to hit the 110+ speeds, as he kicked off the 2021 season with his career best, at 11.5 furlongs, with a slightly better 112, and he finished third with another late charge.   Frank Mambo hit the board twice more, which came in his last two starts, one a listed stake, the other the G2 Fitness Cup but had a decent gap between himself and the winner.  Since 2021, he’s had 9 starts and of these, five have been run with speeds of 107 or 108.  Over his career, he’s competed in 6 grade level races and hit the board only once, which was in the Fitness Cup.   Perhaps this could be a sign of something good, but he’ll need to brake out of his 107-108 speed trends and pop the numbers upward in order to medal.

6.   17/1

GRANDEZZA will represent the Empire State Racing residency and Frankster is the owner of this colt.   He is a runner who desires to be on the front side of things and has done rather well with this style.    He started to run races at distances over 10-furlongs last May and has 6 tries at the higher distances.  His first three were in allowance races where he gathered a pair of wins and a second.  Come September, he moved up into a listed race at 10.5 furlongs and finished third with a 110 speed.  He elevated up to the G1 Japanese Saint Legend, where he went 15-furlongs, the longest of his career, and he wired the field by three strides and a career best speed of 113.   His last outing was on Christmas Day where he battled in the G1 Winter Cup at 13-furlongs.  He left the gate and seated himself in third but could never find his pace to make a move and faded well back in the field, losing by double-digit lengths.   Hopefully, his last outing is just a throw-away and he can recover and be in better shape and ready for this one.

7.   11/1

MIX OF EMOTIONS has the highest earnings in the field with a tad over $4 million earned.  He is owned by Corza and runs for the East-West Connection residency.   Going back to last April, this horse went berserk.  He broke his maiden at 2 miles and did not stop there.  He went on to win his next five starts as he climbed the ranks.  His first three wins, after the maiden victory, came in the allowance class.  Each of these first four wins came at a margin of three lengths or more.  He is a slow starter and it’s expected he’ll be in the back section of the field in the Equinics.  His fifth win in his win streak came in the G2 Don’s Plastered Cup, where he ran 81 off the lead at the mid-point and rallied to take the lead and win by more than four strides.  This win pushed him up into the G1 Millwood Cup where Mix of Emotions was considered an unlikely winner as he went to post at 21/1.   He was exceptional in this event, spotting the leaders almost 20 strides at the half only to run them down and blow off to a 3-length win.  Both of these graded were had his best speeds of 112 in each.  His win streak was halted in his last race, the G1 Japan Classic.  While he made up a ton of ground in the second half of the race (about 14 lengths), it wasn’t enough as he finished fifth and four strides behind the winner.  Mix of Emotions has developed into a fine long-distance late runner and gold is within his reach.

8.   13/1

FIERCE PREDATOR will seek a medal, courtesy of the Only Stayers residency who is footing the tab to ship him, and owner Bizalls, to this Equinics race.  Back in May of 2021, this 4yo colt started to pop 100 speeds and up, notching his first in an allowance race where he was second and got a 101.  Speeds have gone upward as he charted a 109 in June as he again finished second, this time in his only start in a listed stake race.  He would follow that with a 102 in his only grade race appearance in the G3 Derby de Danish (12f) but the results were not there, as he finished a well-back sixth, however, earned the respect of the bettors as he was the second choice at 5/1.   His last three starts were all in allowance level, with a nice speed enhancement with all three in a range of 111-114.  He will be facing the older horses for only the second time and he’s never gone longer than 12 furlongs, so he’s being asked to add a half-mile in distance.  Fierce Predator also rarely faces fields of 8 or more and will be stepping into a huge field in this race.  While all these look like negatives, he could be a flower getting ready to open as those recent speeds look very promising.

9.    7/1

VELTOR is owned by Adrian and will be the representative from the All-Stars Racing residency.   This 5-year-old gelding has six of his eight 2021 races in listed/grade level stakes.   He’s a front runner that has hit the board in all 8 starts and has a record of 3-2-3 in this span.   In listed stake races, he is 2-1-2 and notched a 115 as the top stake speed for himself in a 11-furlong race.  He has one grade level race, in this duration, and he set the early pace, taking a 5-stride lead to the half in the G3 Ark Trial (11f) but could not retain the lead, faltering back to third and six behind the winner and a 111 speed.   While the 115 speed is his best in stake competition, his career best of 116 came during the year in a 13f allowance which he was the victor in by three strides.    Veltor started the year with a second and 105 speed in an allowance race and concluded the season with a 109 listed stake win by five lengths, his only races at the 16-furlong distance.   His speeds are good and he’s done well at the 2-mile route and is coming off a win at that distance and could get a speed boost off of that win at the right time for this race.

10.    14/1

PRISTINE EXAMPLE represents the GR Simsters residency and is owned by Padrebri.   Since last April, he has been on the board in seven straight races at distances of 10.5 furlongs to the 2-mile distance.   Four of these races were with the allowance company and he scored wins in each of these runs.  He also took on a pair of listed stakes and finished third in the first try, but was double-digit lengths behind the winner.  He finished second in the other, which was his last start, making up 9 strides in the final quarter mile to miss by under three lengths.  Both of the listed runs were at 2-miles with speeds at 102 and 103.   He has one graded race in this span, which was a winning one in the G3 Sick No More.   He was 19 back at the half of the 12-furlong race and got the win by ¾- stride.   Here, he hit his lifetime best speed of 114.   Pristine Example has been running very well and form has been nice.  I am concerned on his ability at 16 furlongs as the speeds quoted before, in my opinion, are below the 110+ speed I believe will be need to get the gold.  However, he did get his career best speed in a graded race, so maybe lightning will strike again.

11.     10/1

DANCE IN CLOVER  has the most career wins in this field with 13 over his career.  He represents the Midas residency and is owned by Dixiedotcom.  This 6-year-old gave up running longer distance grade level races earlier in 2021 after finishing a well-back 6^th in the G2 Clubhouse Stakes.  He dropped down to the allowance ranks over the summer in an effort to rebuild this guy’s confidence.  The maneuver had it’s benefits as Dance in Clover swept three long route allowance races.  He returned to top level racing in October and competed in the G3 Two Mile Classic, a race he won back in 2020.  He went and got the lead and held it onto the backstreach of the race before being overtaken in the final quarter of the race, finishing third as the second betting choice, but a well-back 11 strides and a speed of 104.  He bounced back in a 19-horse Local Championship listed stake race in which he looked solid in winning by over three lengths and a timed speed of 106.   His last start was in the allowance level in mid-January this year and he got beat in the stretch, after controlling the lead throughout the race, to finish second by under a length.   Dance in the Clover has had a nice career and has been ITM 24 of 28 turf races.  He’s on of the oldest in the field and age maybe “having it’s say” with him as hitting a speed of 110 or over last occurred almost a year ago.  I think this race will need a speed in the 110-range for the winner and maybe this guy can pump one more out.

12.    10/1

OLDSHCOOLBACKEND got the nod to represent The Mecca residency in this long 2-mile Equinics route.  He is owned by Kimugle and was very lightly raced in 2021.  He ran only three times last year, appearing in a pair of allowance races at the beginning of the season with a second and a win at 10-furlongs and 13-furlongs respectfully.  In these races, he had competitive speeds of 109 and 115.  There was nearly a 10-month gap until his season ending 16-furlong race going 2 miles for the only time in his career in a stakes race where he finished second and a 103 speed.   The speed would sharpen up in 2022 with a 116 clicked off in a 12-furlong stake win by 4-lengths.  He last raced in early February, again a stakes race, but the finish was an off-the-board seventh but with an ok speed of 107.   Oldshcoolbackend will be making his first-grade level start and enters with only 3-weeks rest.  He has shown ability as two of his last four outings had speeds of 115 and 116.   He has a chance if he can shrug off his last race.

13.    5/1

TELL ME WHO I AM is the runner representing the Universal Racing residency and is owned by Dydalt.   Since July, this gelding has performed very well, running in half a dozen long distance routes, all in the graded level class.   In this span, he’s collected a pair of wins and three seconds.  The first win came in the G2 Greatwood Cup, back in July and the other one was in his last start, the G2 Fitness Cup.  His racing theme is to stagger back to the back quarter of the field early on and fire up after moving the half.  He was very impressive in the Fitness Cup where he was about 15 off the lead after running a mile and galloped his way to the front and the win by just shy of 4 lengths.   His best speed over the 6 starts came on Christmas Day in the G1 Winter Cup where he came on late and finished second with a nice 119 at 13 furlongs.  His other seconds came in the G3 Cannon Gold Cup and G1 Longchamp Marathon.  Tell Me Who I Am has the ability and grade race level experience which should work favorably and I could see him having a shot at getting one of the medals.

14.    24/1

HOLY CROSS RYDE gets shipped into the Equinics as the representative to The Canadian Thoroughbred Residency.   This five-year-old is owned by Ontracing and he could have the highest odds in the field.   Since being claimed out of a turf race back in 2020, he has been running well in dirt sprints where he’s been ITM in nine of eleven races.   Previously, on the turf, he had 16 races on the turf and was ITM 10 times.   All of his career races have been in claiming and allowance events with the exception of a listed stake race he appeared in last November.  Here, he broke out of the chute in the second spot, pressing the leader, only to get the better of the leader but be overtaken by a stalker late in the 5.5-furlong race.  Holly Cross Ryde doesn’t look like he has much of a chance here, as he has never gone longer than 8.5 furlongs, which was back in 2020, and the two-mile distance is almost double this distance.  But, much like the Jamaican bobsled team, he’s an underdog, that you still find a heart for and find yourself rooting for him.

15.    14/1

TETE IMBOIC  will represent the European Union Racing Organization residency and is owned by Sabbath.   This five-year-old gelding has been on a little bit of a roll as he’s won his last four races at the allowance level.  These have come at distances of 11 and 14 furlongs and have had speeds as high as 109 and 110.  In all four of these races, he was either the front runner or was holding the second spot.  In fact, in every race where he has held either the first or second spot early on, he has had a top-three finish in all but one race.   Sandwiched between his last four allowance wins are a pair of listed stake races which did not go so well.   Tete Imboic finished fifth in the first at 11.5 furlongs and was 12^th in a 9.5-furlong race which had a huge 19 horse field.   Based on his last two starts at 14 furlongs, he looks capable of handling the 16-furlong distance demanded in this race.  He hasn’t fared well in his listed stake races but does enter off a nice 110 speed in his last.  He’ll be a longshot, but if he can polish up that last run, he just may find a polished medal.

MY PICKS

Here are my selections for getting medals:

GOLD:  MIX OF EMOTIONS has won his last five races going the two-mile distance and could notch another one and take home the top medal.

SILVER:  TELL ME WHO I AM has hit speeds of 110+ in 7 of his last 11 races and has been first or second in 5 of 6 races at the two-mile distance.  Good enough and earns a medal.

BRONZE:  SHADY WARLOCK will be one of a handful seeking the lead early on and he has a knack to keep something in his reserves that keeps him close to get a piece of change at the end.  In this case, the change could be a medal.

Good luck to our runners!!!