Three Year Old Fillies Take to the Turf in the $100,000 ESR Player Contribution Stakes 34

A field of Six Three Year Old Fillies will enter the Big Apple starting gate in the $100,000 ESR Player Contribution Stakes 34.  The race will be run at Nine Furlongs over the Turf Course.

HEY FRENCHY – the nextbonus 3-Year Old Bay Filly is out of the little used, even  lesser known FR sire French Fifteen, a multiple Graded Stakes winner in France that includes the Grade One Criterium International over the Turf Course at One Mile…his SIM offspring, an impressive Filly, has won four of six starts and has already established herself as her DAM’s best runner and is well on her way to bearing that same distinction in her sires resume`…the FR bred parlayed a third place finish against a small but talented field of fillies in the Arc Over Danzig Turf Filly Route, into her first career stakes victory last out in the A. P. Swamp Turf Filly Route in what was a career best in her first try at the mile and one eighth distance…the $125k claiming tag in her first career start now looks like a bargain as the FR bred has gone on to earn $129k in her six career starts with a huge upside on her earning potential going forward…nothing about this pedigree says nine panels, the DAM, out of Oasis Dream did her best running at a mile and under, her half-brother, out of Frankel, hit the board only once in 11 career starts beyond a mile, so the question is, was her last start  an anomaly?  Could the hard-fought head victory in her last start have taken something out of her? Is a bounce off a career best speed-figure on the horizon?  For my dollar, she has defied all the logic a handicapper can summon, is clearly on the path to become the top offspring of this obscure sire, and has certainly earned the right to dismiss any doubt when making your choice at the betting window…major player

CLOAKED IN GOLD – no race is cut and dry when there is a kingab runner in the field…his 3-Year Old Bay Filly by Dubawi has cruised through conditions and now has dead aim on her first career Stakes victory…second by only a head in the 9.5-furlong Its For La Rossa Turf Filly Route two races back left the ENG bred yearning for more, but a third place finish LTO in the 10-furlong Carson A. S. Turf Filly Route, despite a career best 103 speed figure, kept the champagne on ice…turning back to nine panels, where she is a perfect two for two, should pop the cork on this celebration and point this filly toward the next level of racing…one to beat

BUTCHERS HOOK – the trotter1 entry by English Channel looked like a different filly in her last start when she drew away from a NW2L field while posting a career best 104-speed figure…maybe it was the dirt to turf angle, maybe she figured it out, or maybe it was that dose of pixeline I injected into her just before the race, but who knows, maybe I DO have a shot in this race…hahaha, not a chance…there isn’t enough pixeline to get this gal home ahead of the top two, but oh whaESR Player Contribution Stakes 34t a buzz…look elsewhere

SWEET SOVEREIGN – if it was a Dirt race I might be all over this valesa trained 3-Year Old Bay Filly by Malibu Moon, but I’m not quite ready to go all in on this KY bred based on her Turf victory two races back in her first career start…yes, the filly jumped a couple of conditions in that start, but she has been keeping strict company in her previous outings and she definitely enjoyed some class relief in that Turf start despite the jump in ALW conditions…sure connections may have used that race with the ESR feature in mind, but ask yourself why her last start was on dirt…I suspect connections know her real success for this filly is going to come over the dirt course and it is very likely, unless she can somehow steal the bottle of bubbly, that you will find her in a very long and successful dirt career going forward…might surprise

AKR TAPIT IN – the ace trained 3 Year Old Light Grey Filly by Tapit always draws you in like a magnet with her beautiful pedigree…the winner of the ESR Player Contribution Stakes 20 was taunting the field with her 103-speed figure but was just plain showing off when she popped a 111 speed figure to finish second in her next start in Button Dirt Filly Mile, a race that featured multiple stakes winners…here’s the rub, her excellence has come over the dirt course and at distances under nine panels…yes I saw her turf victory in May, but NWx races are some of the easiest races to win that early in the year for 3yo’s, especially if your daddy is Tapit…it’s that 9f race in the Also Sweet Dirt Filly Route on the Dirt, a surface she excels on, that makes me look elsewhere, but as ace often does, she makes me look back and then I turn to stone…your call

WAY TO FIRE LAKE – I’m sure the casino connections are feeling the frustrations of breeding a Frankel and the best races so far come in a sprint…not quite what one would envision, been there…the good news is that Frankel’s take time, and maybe the 9-furlongs is just what the horse whisperer ordered, or perhaps it’s time for this KY bred filly to follow in her hemare’s footsteps and find her way in 12-16-furlong marathons…the winner of one lifetime is in tough against this field regardless of whether she moves up at this distance, but connections would love an improved effort with the added distance…must show more

Handicapping the Field

There is a big question of surface, distance, or class for all but two horses in this field , so a $50 Exacta Box with HEY FRENCHY and CLOAKED IN GOLD is in order.  This is the time of the year when so many 3-year old’s are coming off career best speed figures, so it is hard to draw and conclusions from those starts. Giving class and distance is the priority when trying to determine the outcome of this race.

CLOAKED IN GOLD looks more like a seasoned veteran and the closest runner in this field to a Graded try.   HEY FRENCHY, based of pedigree, is a freak.  There is no telling how good this filly is or will be.  She has certainly exceeded any expectations this writer would have imagined, so why should it stop there.  Enjoy the ride.

SWEET SOVEREIGN and AKR TAPIT IN are mirror images on each other.  Both very talented with a potential to run on both surfaces, however, for my money, I expect they will excel over the Dirt surface.

BUTCHERS HOOK looked like another filly in her last start.  Was it a fluke; as the trainer, I say absolutely. I would have to see a lot more from her to start touting her in a race.

Look, WAY TO FIRE LAKE is bred to run all day.  Sure, she might improve going today’s distance, but Keith, I love you man, but get this filly in a 12–16-furlong race and end the frustration.

The Picks

CLOAKED IN GOLD – the pen of death strikes again

HEY FRENCHY – I hate when I have to go and use a sire I never heard of

SWEET SOVEREIGN and AKR TAPIT IN – you decide which one completes the tri