Nehi Orange Favored In California Oaks
CALIFORNIA OAKS
CA, 8.5F dirt, $400,000, 3yo Fillies
Stakes Record: 1:41 4/5
WELCOME!
This is the 10th running of the California Oaks. The inaugural running of the stakes race was March 13th, 1999 and showcased a short field of 7 runners. For the last six years, however, the field has been nothing short of 14 fillies. As a prep race for the Bluegrass Oaks, surprisingly enough, this race has only produced four Bluegrass Oaks winners, and only one filly has won both races, Armed With Money (2006). The current stakes record of 1:41-4/5 is held by two talented fillies: Livvi’s Lass (2003) and Edge Hopper (2004).
Let’s take a look at past California Oaks runners to see where it led them:
1999: Virginia Well –PP4 (7). The filly led throughout to win by 4 with a 97sp. Was 4th choice at the betting window. 1:43 3/5
BG Oaks: was not run in 1999
2000: Wooden Vice – PP5 (12). Wired the field to win by 4, 102sp. Betting favorite. 1:43-
BG Oaks placing: 2nd
BG Oaks winner: DNR in the CA Oaks
2001: Newbie’s Dream – PP 8 (10). Stalked early, won by 2 ½ with a 106sp. 2nd choice at the windows. 1:42 3/5
BG Oaks placing: 4th
BG Oaks winner: Jeremy’s Nijinsky, 2nd in CA Oaks
2002: Madreach’s Fnas(gb) – PP6 (14). Stalked early, won by 5 ½ with a 111sp. 10/1 odds. 1:42-
BG Oaks placing: DNR
BG Oaks winner: DNR in the CA Oaks
2003: Livvi’s Lass – PP 5 (14). Came from mid-pack, won by 1 ¼ with a 113sp, Betting favorite. 1:41 4/5
BG Oaks placing: 12th
BG Oaks winner: DNR in the CA Oaks
Note: CA Oaks runner-up, Wolf Of Queensland ran 3rd in BG Derby
2004: Edge Hopper – PP3 (14). Came from mid-pack, won by 2 with a 114sp, Betting favorite. 1:41 4/5
BG Oaks placing: DNR
BG Oaks winner: Texas Tornado, 3rd in CA Oaks
Note: Edge Hoper ran 6th in BG Derby
2005: Lovaluce – PP3 (14). Stalked early, won by 1 with a 103sp, Betting favorite. 1:42 3/5
BG Oaks placing: 7th
BG Oaks winner: Swift Kick, 5th in CA Oaks
2006: Armed With Money – PP3 (14). Closed from way back to win by 1 with a 102sp, 10/1 odds. 1:42 2/5
BG Oaks placing: 1st
Note: only filly to win both races
2007: Zarallana(ire) – PP1 (14). Stalked early, won by 2 with a 94sp, 10/1 odds. 1:43 2/5
BG Oaks placing: 3rd
BG Oaks winner: DNR in the CA Oaks
OVERALL:
Most winningest PP: 3 (produced 3 winners), PP: 5 (produced 2 winners)
Other winning posts: 1, 4, 6, & 8
Best Odds: 4 winners were favorites, 1 was 2nd-choice, 3 were 10/1, and 1 was 4/1.
Winning move: 6 of the winners have either led or been within 3 of the lead.
Best Pick Jockeys:
F Ford (1st & 3rd) – No mount
M Staples (2nd, 2nd, 3rd) – Dreamy Cat 15/1
E Land (2nd & 2nd) – Battle Music 15/1
N Bonus (2nd & 3rd) – No mount
T Bates (2nd & 3rd) – Bellissima G 5/1
R Simcox (1st) – Annana 24/1
F Gossett (1st) – Nehi Orange 9/2
In 2008, the California Oaks has 4 graded winners loading into the gate on Saturday. There are some very talented frontrunners in this race, which could set up perfectly for the deep closers of the field. Let’s check out the horses (listed in order of rank).
NEHI ORANGE (Light Grey 3yoF by Unbridled’s Song, out of Windham County, A.P. Indy x Alleged): Rank: 1, G1 Winner
Nehi Orange’s 2yo season up to the Breeder’s Bowl was fairly average. She broke her maiden at first asking – dueling on the lead and winning a head bob. Her next two starts came in overnight stakes where the filly proved headstrong, again battling on the lead only to fail near the wire, finishing 2nd in both. Many trainers would look at those performances and fear that the filly couldn’t handle stretching out. Trainer Hillhouse knew better. Nehi Orange’s fourth start came in a restricted 8F allowance. The filly broke well and quickly got down to business, opening up a comfortable lead. She held off challenges and crossed the wire first. With a 2nd victory notched on her belt, Nehi Orange was placed in another overnight stakes. As predicted, the quick-footed filly jumped to the lead, but she had company this time. After burning herself up she could only manage 2nd-best at the wire. Hillhouse was still hopeful. The filly was showing her trainer something special in the morning sessions… Hillhouse just had to figure out how to get the filly to produce on the track. A third in the 8.5F Margarine Stakes-G2 earned her a birth into the BB Juvenile Filly-G1. There was a lot of early speed in the race so jockey P Munoz decided to take her back in an attempt to rate her. Nehi Orange wanted nothing of it, fighting the hold. As the pack turned for home, P Munoz nudged Nehi Orange. The filly responded momentarily, but quickly ran out of steam. She had nothing left, finishing 5th, 3 lengths behind Ten Year Storm (Dreamy Cat, 2nd). A short 4 weeks later, Nehi Orange was entered in an 8F overnight stakes. The jockey was instructed to let the filly have the lead. Nehi Orange won by 1 length. Her final 2yo start came in the 8F Mother Story Hcp-G1. The filly replicated her performance for her prior race, this time winning by 1 ½ lengths.
Nehi Orange was given a well-deserved 7 weeks rest. Hillhouse picked out the 8.5F Vermont Is 4 Lovers-G1. Mile and sixteenth had been her most unfavorable distance to-date, but this day in February would be different. The filly broke sharply from the gate. She took command and held an authoritative lead throughout. Nehi Orange won the race by 1 ½ lengths with a 105sp. The race notched a 2nd G1 victory and boosted her to the #1 spot.
DREAMY CAT (Bay 3yoF by Bluegrass Cat, out of Northern Dancer x Secretariat): Rank: 10, G3 Winner
Dreamy Cat debuted as a 2yo on the turf, but after a lackluster run trainer Elzid quickly switched to the main track. The filly finally broke her maiden in her 4th start. The filly led throughout, but the race was a short 5F. Elzid knew that the filly would need to learn to rate if she was going to get more ground. Three weeks later Dreamy Cat was entered in the Lean Machine-G3. The filly beautifully 3 lengths back before making a winning move in the 6.5F stakes. Elzid gave the filly 7 weeks to rest and train before running in the 7F Getaway-G1. This time the filly sat even further back (7 lengths) before running at the leaders. She closed swiftly, but came up short, finishing 3rd, beaten 1 ½ lengths. Following the theory, if it’s not broke, don’t fix it, Elzid entered the filly into the World Cup Juvenile Filly Sprint-G1 off of 3 weeks rest. Unfortunately, Dreamy Cat struggled to find favorable footing on in the Minnesota dirt; jockey V Drosos smartly reserved the filly for another day. Five weeks later, that day came in the Breeder’s Bowl Juvenile Filly-G1. After her poor World Cup run, the crowd had lost a little love, sending her off as a 15/1 longshot. That didn’t bother the filly. She sat coolly 7 lengths off the pace in 13th, bidding her time. As they neared the final turn, Dreamy Cat made a run at the leader. The winner was too good that day, however, and Dreamy Cat was good for 2nd, 1 ¾ lengths beaten. Her final 2yo start came in the Movieland Futurity-G1. The filly was fresh and rank. She battled her jockey throughout. When it was time to run there wasn’t much left. Dreamy Cat finished 3rd, beaten by 6 long lengths.
The filly will be making her 3yo debut on Saturday. I suspect she’ll be a bit fresh off a 3-month layoff. She’ll need this race plus 1 or 2 more before we see her best as a sophomore.
PORN STARR (Bay 3yoF by Empire Maker, out of Mr. Prospector x Nijinsky II): Rank: 12, G1 Winner
Porn Starr was hot from the get-go. The tall filly rated nicely in her 2yo debut over 5.5F on the main track, finishing 2nd, beaten by 1 ½ lengths. Her next start came in a 6F MSW. This time Porn Starr played hard to get, leading the field of 13 others gate to wire in taunting fashion. Trainer Korn knew he had something good and entered the Empire Maker filly in an overnight stakes 5 weeks later. The filly was even money at post-time. When the gates opened she leisurely broke in 2nd, relaxing behind the leader before making her winning bid. The Hoserhead Juvenile Fillies-G1 was next on the list. Porn Starr rated well, but wasn’t quick enough on that day in July. She finished 3rd, beaten 1 ¾ lengths. After another quick trip to the winner’s enclosure in an overnight stakes, Korn sent his filly to the starter in the Margarine Stakes-G2; it was her first time around 2-turns. The race was a disaster for Korn and company; Porn Starr struggled throughout. Back in the shedrow, Korn had the vet check the filly over after feeling warmness in her right fetlock. The vet diagnosed her with a minor sprain and suggested a little time off. Korn did just that. Porn Starr returned to the track two months later, winning another overnight stakes as the even money favorite. Five weeks later Porn Starr started in the 6F Thxmsslew Handicap-G1. Porn Starr rated beautifully in route to becoming a G1 winner.
As a 3yo, Porn Starr is winless in 2 starts. She finished 2nd in an 8F overnight stakes against colts where she was being taught to come from far back, proving that she was more than just a one-trick pony. Last time out was in the 8.5F Vermont Is 4 Lovers-G1. The filly laid off the pace 6 lengths back. She was persistent in her drive to the wire, but not good enough that day, finishing 3rd, beaten 3 ½ lengths with a career best 100sp. Rumor has is that she may have the Bluegrass Derby on her agenda.
IT’S RATHER CLOUDY(eng) (Bay 3yoF by Pivotal, out of Storm Cat x Seattle Slew): Rank: 18, G2 Winner
It’s Rather Cloudy is by a hot-upcoming sire, Pivotal. She was nothing less than perfect as a juvenile, winning her maiden debut at even money. The race took place around 6.5F on the main track. It’s Rather Cloudy made it look like a cake-walk, winning by 3 lengths. Seven weeks later, trainer Borrow placed her in her proper conditions, a restricted allowance around 7.5F. The filly was again even-money by race time. She made a game of the event, taunting the field with a 4 ¾ length victory. Borrow was excited at this point, but kept a level head and placed It’s Rather Cloudy in an overnight stakes, going 8F for the first time. The filly was the 3/1 favorite. She was shuffled back in the early going, but she remained calm and collected, listening to her jockey’s knowing hands. On cue, the filly began picking off fillies in front of her. At the top of the stretch she was 6th, 5 ½ lengths behind the leader, but was in full flight. Momentum propelled the filly down the lane, past the leader, to win by 2. It was time to make an appearance in graded company. Borrow picked out the 8.5F Boca Stakes-G2 6 weeks down the road. The filly had trained brillantly up to the race. Once again, It’s Rather Cloudy left that starting gate as the 3/1 favorite. She replicated her previous race, except in exaggerated fashion: she sat further back, she began picking off tiring fillies, she was further back at the top of the stretch, and she won by more daylight while posting a higher speed figure. She was a perfect 4 for 4 at 2.
Her connections had high hopes for her sophomore season. Unfortunately, even the best fall down, and It’s Rather Cloudy had her relapse last time out in her 3yo debut. The race was the 8.5F Sunny Florida-G1. Justify and Rattyburg ran 2nd and 3rd in the race while It’s Rather Cloudy struggled home 10th. It’s Rather Cloudy has a chance to redeem herself this Saturday.
JUSTIFY (Chestnut 3yoF by Distorted Humor, out of Vicious Circle, Wild Again x El Gran Senor): Rank: 19, Stakes Winner, Graded Placed
Justify is a very talented sprinting filly, but she has been a bit questionable around 2-turns. The first of the two Distorted Humor fillies entered in Saturday’s race made her 2yo debut in a restricted allowance race. The filly broke on top and didn’t look back, pulling away with each stride to win the 5.5F event by an easy 1 ¾ lengths. Trainer Zwango1 entered Justify in an overnight stakes around the same distance next. Justify broke fast, but not fastest. The filly had to work every step of the way, finishing 2nd, beaten ¾ of a length. The race told a lot about the filly, she had heart and courage. Her next two starts came in more overnight stakes, going 6F and 7.5F – she won both, wiring the fields and winning comfortably. Seven-weeks later, Zwango1 placed Justify in the 8.5F Margarine Stakes-G2. It would be her first attempt around 2-turns. The filly hooked up with Nehi Orange right out of the gate. The two of them matched strides for the first 7 panels of the race. As the field turned for home, Zwango1 could see his filly was beginning to get leg-weary. Ten Year Storm picked up the pieces to scoop up the win. Justify held on for 4th, beaten by 5 lengths. The Breeder’s Bowl was a no-go. Instead, the filly was nominated to the DelPenn Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies. Justify prevailed throughout, winning by nearly 4 and proving she could handle 8.5F. Zwango1 gave Justify 2 months off. In late December she was nominated to another restricted DelPenn race. This time the race was over a shorter 8F. The filly raced similarly, but wasn’t good enough off an 8-week layoff, only managing 4th. Zwango1 knew what he was doing, though. It was the new year that he was preparing the filly for.
Justify made her sophomore appearance in the warming climate of Florida. Her chosen race was the 8.5F Sunny Florida-G1. The field had a lack of early speed, leaving the lead to Justify. The filly had her way, but as they turned for home she couldn’t hold off Lovestruck. Justify finished 2nd with a 97sp. It’s been 5 weeks. If the filly can withstand Nehi Orange, then she will be tuff.
BELLISSIMA G (Bay 3yoF by Dixie Union, out of Cantpassthiscat, Storm Cat x Buckpasser): Rank: 21, Stakes Winner, Graded Placed
Bellissima G began her career on the turf, but that was a bit short-lived. In her second career she was placed on the dirt, and she won immediately. The next three starts all came in restricted allowance races; Bellissima G showed versatility in her ability to race on or off the lead. She won 2 of the 3 races. Trainer Buxpasser was happy with what he was seeing and jumped straight into graded company with his filly. Her 6th start came in the 7F Getaway Stakes-G1. Bellissima G rated well, but didn’t have enough to wear down the leader, finishing 4th (Dreamy Cat, 2nd). Next up was an attempt at routes. Buxpasser brought the filly back down to the allowance level. The filly sat back in 3rd before making a winning move to take the race by nearly 3 lengths as the even-money favorite. Bellissima G’s final 2yo start came in the 8.5F Golden Red Stakes-G2. She broke alertly and sat 3 back in 2nd. As they turned for home Bellissima G was on the move, taking the lead as they entered the stretch. Right behind her was Azza Muss. The fillies hooked up, but Azza Muss was too much. Bellissima G placed 2nd.
After 6 weeks rest, Bellissima G debuted as a fresher filly. Buxpasser placed her in an 8F overnight stakes. The filly rated in 2nd, 4 lengths back. Turning for home she kicked into a whole new gear, soaring past the leader for the win. She posted a 103 speed figure, a career best. Last time out was another quick victory in another 8F overnight stakes. In this one, however, the filly dictated the lead and coasted home with ears pricked. She comes into Saturday’s race off 4 weeks rest and could easily pick up the pieces if Justify and Nehi Orange, among others, battle early on. She’s my pick to win.
RATTYBURG (Chestnut 3yoF by Johannesburg, out of Wild Again x Saint Ballado): Rank: 35, Stakes Winner, Graded Placed
Rattyburg debuted as a 2yo in Minnesota going a short 4.5F on the dirt. The filly trailed early on, made a move, but ran out of ground, finishing 2nd. Her next race was similar, but over 7F. With a little time off, the third time was the charm as trainer Darnath3 entered Rattyburg in her first turf start. The chestnut filly relished the green stuff, winning the 6.5F by 1 ½ lengths. A brief 4 weeks later, Darnath3 gave the filly her first taste of routes in Eastern Kentucky going 8F. Rattyburg ran sluggishly throughout and could only manage 4th. Darnath3 wasn’t discouraged. Another 4 weeks went. Rattyburg had been training well at Eastern Kentucky so she was entered in another restricted allowance, again over 8F. This time she ran more alertly, staying within 2 lengths of the frontrunner before taking the race by 2 ¼ lengths. The filly’s first stakes race had been circled on the calendar. Darnath3 shipped his filly to New York where she won another restricted allowance by daylight. Next was the 8.5F Minnesota Miss Juvenile stakes. Rattyburg rated 5 lengths back in 8th, bidding her time. As the field of 19 approached the final turn she had picked off horses and was sitting pretty in 2nd, just 3 lengths back. A few urges from her jockey was all she needed as she changed leads and took over the lead. The filly won her 3rd straight race finishing out her 2yo season strong.
Darnath3 appeared to riding on cloud 9 with his filly’s success. Overeager, the trainer entered the filly in his first graded race just 3 weeks later. Rattyburg went to the starter as the 3rd choice in the 8.5F Santa Jezebel-G3; the favorite was Black Flag Flying. Rattyburg didn’t relax, struggling throughout the race and finishing a dull 6th. Two weeks later she was entered in the 8.5F Sunny Florida-G1. The filly fell back in 11th early on, racing further back than she had in any other race. In the stretch run she managed to pass tiring horses to gain 3rd, but was beaten 5 ¼ lengths. It’s now been 5 weeks and I’m sure the filly will appreciate the longer break. I suspect that she will perform much better this time around.
TRAIL AND TREASURE (Chestnut 3yoF by Mineshaft, out of Indy Connection, Forty Niner x Storm Cat): Rank: 42, G2 Winner
Trail And Treasure won her 2yo debut like a pro. She started next in a restricted allowance race, but after dueling on the lead, she didn’t have much left in the tank to hold off challengers, finishing 3rd. Her next two starts came in overnight stakes. Trail And Treasure won both in wire-to-wire fashion. Trainer Oaklawn88 knew she was ready for her graded debut. The lanky chestnut was shipped out to California for the 6.5F Dazzling Daisies-G2. Trail And Treasure was just that, dazzling in her wire-to-wire performance upping her record to 4 wins in 5 starts. Unfortunately, that would be her last trip to the winner’s circle. Her next 4 starts came in various graded races and overnight stakes all ranging from 6.5F to 8F. The filly struggled to find the lead in each one and looked to be discouraged, throwing in the towel. The best she could manage was a 3rd and three 4th’s. Oaklawan88 gave the filly another shot at 8F in her final 2yo start: the Reflection Futurity-G3. Trail And Treasure battled for the lead, gaining it. She attempted to pull off, but wasn’t quite good enough to hold off a late challenger, finishing 2nd beaten by 2 lengths with a career-best 90 speed figure.
Trail And Treasure is a consistent filly, but it’s been 7 months since she has visited the winner’s enclosure. Another negative is her past speed figures are low in comparison to many of the other fillies in this field. She will be making her 3yo debut on Saturday after a 9-week layoff, so I don’t expect to see her best race, but she will be fresh. She will have two classy speed fillies to battle with on the lead. Hopefully she can be rated.
BATTLE MUSIC (Dark Grey 3yoF by Unbridled’s Song, out of Battle Song, War Chant x Seattle Slew): Rank: 48, Allowance Winner, Graded Placed
Battle Music began her career on the turf. The near-black filly ran well to finish 3rd, but not well enough. Her trainer 2ofus switched her over to the main track in her next start. Battle Music closed to finish 4th. It appeared that 6F was not enough ground. In her third start, Battle Music was entered in an 8F maiden race. The filly relished the extra 2 furlongs, making up ground to win the race by daylight. Six weeks later the filly replicated her performance in an 8F open-allowance. Next up, 2ofus placed her in the 8.5F Frickazee Stakes-G1. A win would place her in the Breeder’s Bowl. Battle Music wasn’t gaining much love at the windows, entering the starting gate at 17/1. When the gates opened, Battle Music found herself behind a wall of 11 horses, the furthest back she had ever been. Traffic was thick and as the field of 14 fillies rounded the corner for home, Battle Music was still in 9th 6 ¼ lengths back. Her jockey swung her out to the middle of the track and the filly lengthened out, passing horses like they were standing still. She drove home 3rd, losing by 2 lengths. It wasn’t enough for a birth to the Breeder’s Bowl. Another six weeks went by; 2ofus entered Battle Music into the 8.5F Mistaken Soda Identity-G2. Oddly enough, the sunny skies of Arizona opened up. Torrential rains soaked the track. Sent off at 17/1, Battle Music had not gained any respect. This time around she found herself even further back in 13th, 12 ½ lengths behind the leaders. Turning for home, Battle Music was 10th still 10 lengths back. Suddenly a spot opened on the rail and Battle Music dragged herself and her jockey through. Daylight ahead, Battle Music put her head down and dug in. At the wire she was 4th, just 2 ¼ lengths behind the leader with a career-best 93sp.
With the closing kick that Battle Music had been demonstrating it was natural that 2ofus would find a 9F spot for the filly’s sophomore debut. The filly struggled a bit, appearing to not like the surface, finishing 5th. Battle Music is a question mark in my opinion; she’s not as consistent as a lot of the top fillies in this field. She will need to improve her speed figures and performance greatly to get a top 3 finish. A positive, however, is that there are at least 3 fillies that will be on the lead setting honest fractions for Battle Music’s closing drive.
STORM E MESA (Bay 3yoF by Sky Mesa, out of Raider’s Wedding, Secret Claim x Storm Cat): Rank: 65, Stakes Winner, Graded Placed
Storm E Mesa broke her maiden in her February 2yo debut. After a showing in a restricted allowance, trainer Bmr003 entered the filly in a couple of overnight stakes. Storm E Mesa produced a 2nd and a 3rd respectively. Her fifth and sixth starts came in G3 sprints. The filly laid back 5 or 6 lengths in each one before making a bid for the lead. She closed well, finishing behind by 1 ½ lengths for 2nd and 3rd respectively. After those performances, Bmr003 placed Storm E Mesa in an overnight stakes to give the filly some confidence and another victory. The filly rated well and pushed on for the win with a career-best 88 speed figure. Four weeks later she made her routing debut in the 8F Walnut Tree Stakes-G2. Storm E Mesa raced well early on. As the field turned for home she made a bid for the lead, but the 1-2 finishers had too much left in the tank. Storm E Mesa had to settle for 3rd beaten by 6. Her next race occurred in the 8.5F Mistaken Identity Soda-G2. The race came up listed ‘good.’ The filly hated the going, managing to pass only a handful of tiring fillies for 9th. Bmr003 gave the filly the rest of the year off to grow.
After a 9-week layoff, Bmr003 picked the 7F Santa Ynez-G2 for the filly’s sophomore debut. Storm E Mesa stumbled out of the gate and found herself in dead last. Her jockey collected her and got her settled into an easy stride. Turning for home, the filly was still in 14th and not moving anywhere. McGriggs forced her to change leads and with some heavy whipping the filly made up 3 lengths at the wire. She was 9th. Storm E Mesa is another inconsistent filly in terms of finding the winner’s enclosure. It’s been 6 weeks since that start. I doubt she’s ready to perform to her best ability just yet. And with an 88 speed figure rated as her best to-date, she will need to pick up the pace a bit more to catch these.
THOUGHTFUL TYPHOON (Roan 3yoF by Stormy Atlantic, out of Nethereal, Unbridled’s Song x Saratoga Six): Rank: 74, Stakes Winner
Thoughtful Typhoon comes into this event as the least experienced filly in the field with a mere 3 starts under her belt. The filly debuted as a 2yo in November in an 8F maiden special weight. The race drew a full field of 14 fillies, and Thoughtful Typhoon received 8/1 odds. When the gates opened, the roan filly broke smartly. She settled into 3rd just behind the pacesetters. As they field approached the turn for home she pinned her ears and sailed past the two fillies on the rail. The filly extended out nicely down the lane, winning the race in a hand ride by 1 ¾ lengths. Her trainer Optimal was impressed with how well the filly had raced and placed her in stakes company in her next start. The 8F overnight stakes drew only 5 other fillies. Thoughtful Typhoon broke fastest and dared the rest to catch her. Once on the lead the filly pricked her ears and started looking around. Late in the stretch a challenger came up on the outside before Thoughtful Typhoon was able to respond. The filly had to settle for 2nd by a length.
Optimal placed Thoughtful Typhoon in another 8F overnight stakes for her sophomore debut. This time the filly would face only 4 other horses. She was named the even-money favorite. The jockey rated her behind the frontrunner this time around. They had decided that the filly needed something to run at to keep her engaged. The plan worked. As they turned for home, Thoughtful Typhoon had taken command, but she had a challenger come up on the rail trying to get by. The two of them ran on together, Thoughtful Typhoon holding out for the win by a ¼ length. I feel it may be a bit premature for a start in graded company against some of the best fillies, but the filly is coming in off a nice prep 5 weeks ago. The filly will need to improve to place in the top 3 on Saturday.
AUROR DERBY (Bay 3yoF by Gone West, out of Auror, Sadler’s Wells x Blushing Groom): Rank: 81, Stakes Winner
Auror Derby’s first 5 career starts came on the turf. The filly won at first asking and was then quickly placed in the 6.5F Fast Lane Stakes-G3. The filly attempted to lead, but couldn’t keep up after being pressured in the first half. Her next starts came in an open allowance and two overnight stakes in which she finished 1st, 2nd, and 2nd respectively. Trainer Auror wasn’t satisfied with what the filly was demonstrating on the turf. In her 6th start she received her first taste of dirt as well as an increase in distance (7.5F). Auror Derby attempted to wire the overnight stakes field, but again, was challenged early on for the lead and couldn’t keep up the pace. She faded down the stretch to place 2nd, beaten by 2 ½ lengths. The filly had improved speed figures-wise, but Auror wasn’t decided on what the filly’s best distance was. In what was her final 2yo start, Auror Derby ran in a 5.5F overnight stakes. The field drew only 3 other fillies (a common them in 5 of her 8 career starts). Auror Derby was given even-money odds at the windows. This time she was rated in last before making a run at the 3 fillies in front of her. The strategy paid off. Auror Derby won by ¾ lengths.
Currently, the filly has made only one start as a sophomore. It was the first time the filly traveled around 2-turns. The filly relished the extra distance, wiring the field in easy fashion. It’s been 7 weeks since that race. That may (or may not) have a negative effect on the filly’s performance. She’ll have to rate off the lead to get the best of the 4 other frontrunners in the field.
ANNANA (Dark Grey 3yoF by Kitten’s Joy, out of Song Wood, Unbridled’s Song x Woodman): Rank: 86, Stakes Winner
Annana is the another filly that has minimal career starts – four to be exact. From that, however, she has 3 victories. Her 2yo debut came in early September against 3 others in a 7F overnight stakes. Annana sat off the pace saving herself for the finish to win by a head in a photo finish. Trainer Ringott2 entered the filly in a 7.5F overnight stakes against 4 others as a prep for a duo of owner-restricted races. The filly struggled this time around, finishing 3rd, but being beaten by 6 lengths. Seven weeks later, Annana entered the starting gate as the 3/1 choice in the 8F Resident Futurity. The gates opened and Annana found herself in the front. The filly was fresh and ready to run. She opened up a 4 ½ length lead by the time the field realized what was happening. At the wire she was still ahead by 1 ¼ lengths.
Her sophomore debut occurred 5 weeks later in the 9.5F EAAA Division Inter-Residency Challenge Stakes. The race was 1.5 furlongs longer than the filly had ever run and it was the largest field she had faced to-date. How would she handle it? Like a pro. The filly rated beautifully before making a drive to the wire just getting up in time to win by a ½ length with a career-best 87 speed figure. It’s been 7 weeks since that last race; Annana has proven she can run big off a long period of rest. However, she will need to improve her speed figures by at least 10 points before the steals the show on Saturday.
DIE VERWANDLUNG(ger) (Chestnut 3yoF by Monsun, out of On The Big, Gone West x Alleged): Rank: 102, Stakes Winner
This filly has one obscure sire… or maybe I live in a little box. Either way, I’m a fan. This filly is dynamite as of last time out. Die Verwandlung debuted on the dirt; however, trainer chilcoat2 wasn’t exactly impressed with her 4th place finish. The next two starts the filly attempted to show her stuff on the turf, but a 3rd and a 7th weren’t exactly worth bragging about. At this point she had run on both surfaces going 6F and on the turf going 8F. In a last ditch effort chilcoat2 had to see what Die Verwandlung had to offer in an 8F race on the dirt. In September the filly got her chance to redeem herself. The filly broke well and sat back in 3rd, 2 lengths behind the pacesetter… and that’s exactly how she finished. An inkling of hope had emerged with her 11 point increase in speed figures. Her next start came in another 8F maiden race 7 weeks later. The track came up ‘good.’ The filly broke sharply. In the first half she kept pressure on the leader. As they rounded the 5F pole Die Verwandlung had taken command and was pulling off. A late challenger came at her in the final jumps, but the filly had enough in reserve to hold on by ¾ lengths.
Chilcoat2 turned the filly out for a few weeks then brought her back into training. After a 9-week layoff, Die Verwandlung was ready to make her sophomore debut. The chosen race was a 9.5F restricted allowance. The filly was ready. When the gates opened she flew out to the lead. That was the closest the rest of the field would ever get to her. The filly opened up with every jump, wiring the field to win by 7 lengths. Last time out Die Verwandlung received her first taste of stakes competition in a 9F California overnight stakes. Again the filly exploded out of the gates. By the first call she had opened up an amazing 4 length lead. Heading into the stretch she was ahead by 7. But a fast closer was moving quickly. The filly had to work for her ¼ length victory. In the process she posted a career-best 96 speed figure. This one could be the fastest frontrunner of the bunch. If they let her get out lose on the lead like her prior two races then it could be lights out for the rest of the field.
REPEATING HISTORY…
Well, if history decides to (somewhat) repeat itself here’s what the Sim-stars may have in store for us.
According to my investigative work all the past winners have come from POST POSITIONS 3 (most common), 5 (2nd most frequent), and then 1, 4, 6, and 8. INCLUSION: Storm E Mesa (1), Battle Music (3), Rattyburg (4), Trail And Treasure (5), Justify (6), and Bellissima G (8). EXCLUSION: Auror Derby, Nehi Orange, Die Verwandlung, Porn Starr, Dreamy Cat, and Thoughtful Typhoon.
From what I found regarding ODDS 4 of the past 9 winners were favorites while a 5th winner left the gate as the 2nd choice. One winner was 4th choice at 4/1 odds, and three more fillies won with 10/1 odds. There have been no winners with longer odds than 10/1. EXCLUSION: Storm E Mesa, Auror Derby, Battle Music, Trail And Treasure, Annana, Die Verwandlung, Dreamy Cat, and Thoughtful Typhoon. INCLUSION: Nehi Orange (9/2, fav), Porn Starr (5/1, 2nd choice), and Bellissima G (5/1, 2nd choice).
Next on the list is JOCKEY selection. The “best pick” jockeys are listed in the beginning of this article (refer to that). INCLUSION: Dreamy Cat will be ridden by Staples, Battle Music has Land, Bellissima G with Bates, Annana and Simcox, and lastly, Nehi Orange has Gossett. EXCLUSION: everyone else.
Last, but no least, is RACING POSITION. Six of the 9 winners have either led wire to wire or been within 3 lengths of the leaders in the early going. Yes, that does leave room for a closer to steal the show, but I’m just going to point out the pacesetters and stalkers. INCLUSION: Frontrunners: Auror Derby, Trail And Treasure, Justify, Nehi Orange, Die Verwandlung. Five speed horses, in my opinion, equals too many cooks in the kitchen and could only mean disaster for those fillies. There are 4 (possibly 5) fillies that will be running within 3 lengths of the pacesetters, these are: Annanna, Bellissima G, Porn Starr, Thoughtful Typhoon, and Dreamy Cat.
Analyzing all of that information leaves one common factor: BELLISSIMA G. She is my pick to win. But if she decides to fall down, then my 2nd-choice falls to PORN STARR. To finish out my picks I’m going with a deep closer: IT’S RATHER CLOUDY.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a new stakes record set on Saturday. Happy racing/betting to all & Good Luck!! Hope you enjoyed my mini-novel! Ha!
~Keely ☺