Attempting to select a Derby winner the morning of the race is an incredibly difficult proposition, much less three months in advance. Think about it. These are still relatively young horses being asked to do two things they have never done before. For the first (and last) time in their careers, they will go postward with 19 other horses. This creates total chaos. At least three horses every year have any chance at winning ruined by an awful trip. And for the first time in their careers, they will be asked to run a mile-and-a-quarter distance. Many of these horses want no part of this distance. Tony (aka. AFC) once said that the Derby is like feeding a bunch of 15-year-olds a few bottles of whiskey and then betting on which one can run to the pisser the fastest- if they don’t fall down. Of course I don’t condone that sort of behavior, but you get the drift.
Luckily, I’ve fallen on the right horse the last two years of the Derby. I thought that Barbaro was the most talented horse in 2006, and last year it seemed that Street Sense was sitting on a monstrous race.
When reading my Top Ten, keep in mind I tend to lean towards horses that have the pedigree to get the Derby distance. There are a number of very talented horses that I don’t think will get the distance, and I have modified their rankings accordingly.
Given’s Derby Rankings
1) Pyro, trained by Steve Asmussen, must be ranked at the head of his list off his recent win in the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds. You can this race at Youtube here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tc1eV2rfp0M. Trailing the field through tepid fractions and being bottled up on the rail at the top of the stretch, he was veered sharply to the outside and closed like a rocket to win going away. The speed figures for the race were slow, but when a horse closes like he did into slow fractions, you can throw the figures out the window. Looking forward to the Derby, I have question marks about his sire, Pulpit, passing along enough stamina for him to stay the distance. In addition, his extreme closing style could lead to him running into traffic problems in stretch.
Probable Next Race: Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds, 3/8/2008
2) War Pass, trained by Nick Zito, was the dominating champion juvenile of 2007. He’s undefeated and has beaten Pyro three straight times. You can watch his Breeders Cup Juvenile win at Youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AWeV2KU67DY. So you may ask why he’s not ranked first on my list. Pedigree, pedigree, pedigree. War Pass’ sire, Cherokee Run, was a champion sprinter, and his dam, Vue, is a half-sister to two graded quality sprinters. I have a very hard time seeing this horse enjoy the Derby distance. It also looks like he’s going to be handled with kid gloves by Nick Zito leading up to the Derby, which isn’t a good thing. I expect him to slip on this list if there are some dominating performances by horses with better pedigrees.
Probable Next Race: Allowance Race at Gulfstream, date undecided
3) Giant Moon, trained by Richard Schosberg, is undefeated in four career starts, yet has received very little attention from the pundits. That’s likely because his first three races were restricted to New York-breds. Sound familiar? It should. Funny Cide, the winner of the 2003 Derby, started off his career with three straight wins in New York-bred company. Both horses have great tactical speed, and their Thoro-Graph numbers are very similar through their first three starts. You can watch his wins in the Damon Runyan and the Count Fleet from the NYRA web site: http://www.nyra.com/Aqueduct/Broadcast/Video/StakesRaces.shtml. His next test will probably be make-or-break for the Derby trail, as he’ll get his first taste of graded company. My feeling is that he will pass that test.
Probable Next Race: Gotham at Aqueduct, 3/8/2008
4) Z Humor, trained by Bill Mott, is one of those horses that is really flying under the radar. But if you look closely, it becomes apparent that he had a really good juvenile campaign. In the G1 Champagne at a mile, he finished a good third behind War Pass and Pyro. After he clearly disliked the sloppy Monmouth track on Breeders Cup day, he rebounded to a dead-heat win in the $1 million Delta Jackpot at Delta Downs. That day he chased really fast fractions and still had enough to hold on for the win. You can watch a replay of it from the Delta Downs website: http://www.deltadowns.com/site/racing/replays.html. It’s race 8 on 12/7/2007. Out of an A.P. Indy mare, Z Humor has every right to really improve as a 3yo, especially under the guidance of brilliant trainer Bill Mott.
Probable Next Race: Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs, 2/16/2008
5) Cool Coal Man, trained by Nick Zito, is a horse that you probably won’t see on most people’s top ten lists for the Derby at this point. However, with the lack of proven 3yo’s, I am taking a shot here with a horse that has tremendous upside. This son of Mineshaft already has six races under his belt, including a very impressive mile-and-an-eighth allowance at Gulfstream on January 26. He is a horse with tremendous speed, but he’s now shown the ability to rate behind other horses. That is a very important trait for a Derby hopeful. By Mineshaft, he will have no problems with the Derby distance, and it would be no surprise to see this horse have a huge stakes performance in the near future. You can watch some of his replays at the California Racing Site: http://www.calracing.com/replays.php
Probable Next Race: Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream, 2/24/2008
6) Crown of Thorns, trained by Richard Mandella, is my top choice from the California-based horses on the Derby Trail. That being said, I must express my concern about any of these horses never having raced on a dirt surface. Synthetic tracks clearly play differently than dirt tracks, so taking any of the California horses requires a real leap of faith. This year at the Breeders Cup, almost all of the horses that had been running mainly on synthetic surfaces did not run well at Momouth. But I do love this horse’s pedigree, by Repent out of a Thunder Gulch mare. He should love every inch of the Derby distance. You can watch all of his races at the California Racing Site: http://www.calracing.com/replays.php
Probable Next Race: Sham at Santa Anita, 3/1/2008
7) Anak Nakal, trained by Nick Zito, hasn’t done much wrong in three career starts. Two of those resulted in wins, including a G2 win in the KY Jockey Club in November. You can watch that race on Youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xB2KphrPbw. That was his most recent start, but he’s had a steady slew of works while preparing for his 2008 debut. I love his pedigree, and there is no question that he will stay the Derby distance. He has a ton of upside, and it will be no surprise if he comes out running as a 3yo after a long freshening by Zito.
Probable Next Race: Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream, 2/24/2008
8) Z Fortune, trained by Steve Asmussen, tasted defeat for the first time when he was mowed down by Pyro in the Risen Star. You can this race at Youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tc1eV2rfp0M. Before that race, this colt had won all three of his starts by a combined 14 lengths, albeit two against New York-bred competition. And there is certainly no shame in losing to the top horse on my list. He has intriguing breeding, by the Brazilian sire Siphon, who was a G1 winner at the Derby distance. He probably got a lot out of the Risen Star, and should run a big race next time out.
Probable Next Race: Rebel at Oaklawn Park, 3/15/2008
9) Into Mischief, trained by Richard Mandella, is another California-based horse that has never run on a dirt surface. He is bred to get the Derby Distance, and his first route resulted in a very impressive G1 win in the Cash Call Futurity at Hollywood Park. For some reason his connections turned him back to 7 furlongs in the San Vicente, and he didn’t run nearly as well. I suspect that when he gets stretched out again we will see a big performance. I just hope that Mandella gets him on the dirt at some point before the Derby. You can watch all of his races at the California Racing Site: http://www.calracing.com/replays.php
Probable Next Race: San Felipe at Santa Anita, 3/15/2008
10) Roman Emperor, trained by Steve Klesaris, is a horse that I think is going to improve leaps and bounds the first time that he runs a mile-and-an-eighth. Both his sire (Empire Maker) and his damsire (Colonial Affair) won the Belmont, and his dam’s damsire (Alydar) nearly won that race as well. If there was a future book for the Belmont, this would be your horse. That being said, he’s run very well at shorter distances, finishing a very good second in the Whirlaway at Aqueduct. His trainer doesn’t have much experience with the Derby trail, but that is about the only negative that this horse has as the distances get longer. You can watch his runs in the Count Fleet and the Whirlaway from the NYRA web site: http://www.nyra.com/Aqueduct/Broadcast/Video/StakesRaces.shtml
That’s the early top ten for now. I’ll be making some changes along the trail, so stay tuned!