3yo hot sires

CLASSIC GENERATION HOT SIRES

This is always a list it is worth taking notice of these sires are hot right now and assuming horse racing survives the current world events will be sires to look out for going forwards. The skill is to target the value in the ranks.

The list always favours first season 3yo sires as in most cases this will be the best set of mares they are ever bred to unless they massively exceed expectations. In which case it is upwards and better times ahead.

I will look at sires of graded stakes winner’s northern hemisphere bred, to qualify the sire needs 3 or more graded stakes winners.

GALILEO it is no surprise to see him top and with 13 graded stakes winners at a rate of 14.77% he is way ahead of the other sires. The only real question is how long is he going to keep it up in more ways than one. He will be 23 on the 1 January.

UNCLE MO is second with 9 at 7.50% this is a long way ahead of all other North American based sires. The only negative is that he has not converted any into grade 1 winners. He has an average winning distance of 7.74f which in the world of North America is a long way. These mares came on the back of good initial results so it is a good sign he has produced these results.

DEEP IMPACT dead but interesting for later.

KINGMAN his 6 graded stakes winners at 7.14% mark a good return especially as this is his third crop of foals. The third and fourth crops tend to be sires weakest unless they fail altogether. He has since received far superior mares so you can only see the results improving in future years. It is hard not seeing the current raking and numbers rising especially as Galileo has limited time left. Top class stallion.

SEA THE STARS he has 5 graded winners at 7.46%. This is an impressive set of results. We need to set this against the fact his offspring usually improve with age and are not seen to best effect until 4. If we factor in an average winning distance of 11.35f this usually demonstrates slower maturity. It may be the fact some mares are going his way rather than Galileo due too, his younger age better fertility. These are improved results this year.

NIGHT OF THUNDER the first of the first crop 3yo sires and the one with best returns 5 winners at 6.33%. These results are even more impressive given the initial mare quality. He was massively oversubscribed this past breeding season and his results are only going to get better in time. He produces horse more preciouses than his dad Dubai. It is hard to see him going anywhere but higher up the rankings. As with all the first crop 3yo sires on the list he has failed to get a grade 1 winner.

AMERICAN PHAROAH he has 5 winners at lower percentage of 4.95%. He had the best book quality of mares in North America so should be on the list. That is the positive aspect to look at the negatives he is not really producing horses that are excelling in the job he is meant to be doing. The best dirt runners in Japan which is a bit like being the goblin world heavy weight champion, even David Price could whip your ass. Things have to improve to maintain the position going forwards. Several factors suggest that Coolmore are not confident. The purchase of another outcross source for Galileo mares and the less than enthusiastic sales pitch to Australian breeders this year.

SHAMARDAL dead

INTO MISCHIEF he has 4 winners at 3.03%. There is something odd with this sire’s statistics he has 24 black type horses this year but very few graded stakes winners. This could be down to two factors the first his average winning distance of 6.73f which suggests the horses in general do not see out the trip to be competitive at the 8-9f races which make up a lot of US graded racing. That is a something planners need to look at especially given the horses being bred. The other is he is not delivering his side of the DNA and that a lot of the ability is coming from the mares. Uncle Mo has produced a much more even quality set of results and is the clear leader for North American sires.

KIZUNA he is a shock most forget he won the Derby in Japan at three came to Europe won an Arc trial and was fourth in the race itself. He was due to come back the next year started ok went off the boil looked like an injury back again at 5 for one run. He went to stud at 6 and did not even get a fee. These horses were bred for not very good mares. His stud fee has risen steadily ever since. He is likely to be well supported next year in Japan, given his dad Deep Impact is dead you can see many knocking at his door especially as Lord Kanaloa offspring have distant limitations which is a massive negative in Japan. At the time of writing he is available for 69 credits. He has 4 graded stakes winners at 2.53%. He offers great value for next year when he is likely to upgraded considerably.

WOOTTON BASSETT he leads the 3 brigade with 4.84%. The interesting feature is that for a sprinter his average winning distance is 8.32f. He is better than could be expected both in terms of quality and diversity of offspring. You can see why Coolmore purchase him as an outcross option especially as those they already have are not up to scratch or in the case of Uncle Mo appear to lack an affinity to European turf racing. His rating and real-life results should continue to improve.

SPEIGHTSTOWN he has 3 at 4.48% he continues to be a sire that keeps throwing out decent statistics without really hitting the headlines. You know what you get with him and Mike has him ranked including performance type to reflect this. He is another in the Galileo camp coming up 21 and cannot have long left sowing his not so wild oats.

AUSTRALIA he again is on 3 at 4.29%. He has an average winning distance of 10.02f though most of his better horses need further. I was slightly surprised to see how low this was. I would suggest he will breed to less horses going forwards but more mares that suit him will come along he like Kingman is a third crop sire. He is a decent sire though you do wonder if a switch to national hunt breeding is likely to occur sooner rather than later given the book sizes he will receive in this field.

DECLERATION OF WAR his 3 winners coming at 4.11%. He is a sire Coolmore really got wrong. Started in Ireland classic winner first crop, then off to the USA and still a steady stream of graded winners. He is already in Japan I am sure he will be well supported and continue to throw out above average numbers of graded stakes horses. He is an undervalued sire in both the real and game world.

LE HAVRE is the leading sire in France his 3 graded stakes winners coming at 4%. An average winning distance of 10.58f shows he is a true turf classic sire as well. I have mentioned many times before he is related to Pivotal via Polar Falcon and has a lot of that can of look about him. He is already doing good work as a dam sire for players in the UK think Pyledriver expect him to be a major player in this department going forwards.

NO NAY NEVER he is the third of the third crop sires in the list which is no mean feat. All three of these are obviously very good. His statistics 3 for 3.53%. He is very much a sire of 2yo’s and an average winning distance of 7.15f is low for Europe in top ranking sires. As mentioned in the past there are issues a lack of sex drive being the main one along with the precious nature of his stock (this is more a game negative given we breed horses to race long term).

MUNINGS rounds up the list with 3 wins at 3.03%. Once again, he is a sire who appears often in these lists but seems to lack a lot of love in the game. The fact he can be grabbed for a price of 206bps is amazing given due to player demographics US sire always trade for a massive premium and never really represent value for money. Though this is how a real market economy of supply and demand works. Very good consistent sire deserves more respect from game players.