Miscalcualtion Looks to Remain Unbeaten in Yanta Snez Stakes
Race 15 on this week’s
We’ll revisit the history with a quick look at the earlier winners:
1999 (
2000 (Cal) – Every That Tempest – Giantputz2 – 1.23.0 – 100 – Retired winner of $800k. – Dam of three, including stakeswinner The Road Warrior (Grand Slam).
2001 – Fire N Desire – hladun – 1.23.2 – 98 – Retired winner of $270k – Dam of five runners
2002 – Free
2003 – I’m High – upsandowns – 1.22.6 – 104 – retired winner of $961k. – Dam of two, including dual Graded winner Offlee High (Oflee Wild)
2004 – Dixielandfan – reminder – 1.23.2 – 97 – Retired winner of $1.1m. – Dam of two, including stakeswinner Dixie’s Grand Fan (Grand Slam)
2005 – K’s Eskape – pompeya – 1.22.0 – 107 – Active winner of $790k.
2006 – Smokin Lois – molwr – 1.23.0 – 95 – active winner of $610k.
2006 – Grey Ice – crandyiii – 1.22.8 – 97 – active winner of $337k.
History has not been a great guide to the speed required to triumph in this event, although it tends to indicate that the winner should stop the clock in around 1.23, and go close to registering a triple digit speed rating. The race record of 1.22.0 belongs to K’s Eskape in 2005, while 1.23.2 has been good enough to take home the winners share on three occasions. Winning speed figures range from 87 to 107. It would appear that, historically, tactics have played a more significant role than sheer speed.
An interesting but irrelevant breeding note. This race has not been a great start for future broodmares, with most winners achieving only modest success in the shed after retirement. Just three stakeswinners have been produced to date by the victors of the Yanta Snez Stakes, and two of them have been by Grand Slam. Perhaps that is worth keeping in mind for this year’s winner.
Let’s work through the formguide for this year’s renewal:
The inside gate will be occupied by Incredible Cause, looking to overcome her hoodoo of being thereabouts, but out of the money, in two Graded attempts, while proving more than a match for her opposition at the ungraded stakes level. A mitigating factor in her underperformance at Graded level may be the fact that both of her attempts against this class have been over the route distance, while the other two of her four most recent starts, both over seven and a half furlongs, each resulted in comprehensive all the way wins. Those who follow this line of argument will have no difficulty in supporting her this week, whereas those who prefer the ‘not up to graded class’ line, may well live to rue their decisions. Incredible Cause is a daughter of
Storm Forecast lines up in 2, and brings into the event one of the more consistent sprinting formlines. If we ignore her one failure when attempting to cover the longer trips, her form well and truly stacks up against the opposition she faces here. The low point of her sprints when, at just her second start, she was far from disgraced when fourth of thirteen in the G2-Red Fish Blue fish Stakes. Other than that, she’s been on the podium at every run, with her career high to date being her third placing in the G3-Closest Friend Stakes. Her most recent appearance was in a restricted stakes where she came home second, but the 93 speed rating she registered is the second highest number ever recorded by a runner here. Storm Forecast is a daughter of Vision and Verse from Ginger Liability (Two Punch / Irish Castle), a winner of one race from her truncated seven start career. This filly is the third, and most successful issue of the spewu ‘exclusive’. While every filly in the race has put in performances which would not want to be repeated this weekend, this one has tended to remain a model of consistency. The close in draw should assist her foreward running style, although there are many potential leaders in this race. In a most even contest, she can once again be expected to put in an impressive performance, and is an undeniable chance.
Barrier 3 holds Dream Thief, lining up for the eighth time this weekend, after establishing her credentials with a pair of ungraded stakes victories at each of her two most recent sprint appearances. If we remove her route runs from the equation, the formguide shows five runs for three wins, a second and a third. bigspruce created the filly by sending the very nicely bred Dream Song (Unbridled’s Song / Summer Squall) to Cat Thief. The dam didn’t quite live up to expectations, but was a handy allowance quality winner of four from forty one. Totally irrelevant to the form analysis, Dream Thief traces her ancestry back through four generations to the Graded winner Music Winter (Woodman / Herculean / Sir Gaylord). Back to the event in question: In an even race in which some runners are likely to indicate increasing maturity, while others will leave their best form on the juvenile page, this filly gives every indication that she belongs in the former category. Her speed ratings are still showing consistent improvement. Expect to see her settle just off the lead, possibly camped right behind the leader waiting to make serious inroads at the business end of the race.
From 4 comes Pomeroy’s Quest, a talented, stakeswinning filly who can boast that her best career effort to date was scored over the exact trip of this week’s race; seven furlongs on the dirt. Her last three runs have all been against black type opposition, and she’s recorded a first, second and third in those three runs. First glance at her most recent race tends to disappoint, as she failed to capitalize on her solid victory the time before. I’m willing to forgive that run (not that third in a stakes race is exactly failing), largely because I feel she’s now looking for more ground. She made up many lengths in the run home, and at each of her last five, she’s been doing her best work at the ends of the races. I believe six is just too short for her now, seven is better, and I’d like to see her trying even further. Of course, this advice comes from a trainer with overall poorer stats than pointblank, so perhaps it is best ignored. Pomeroy’s Quest is a scratchbred daughter of Pomeroy / Coronado’s Quest / Wild Again. She’s the star performer of the lightly used sire’s initial crop, and is undeniable chance to secure his first Graded winner this week.
She represents terrific value at the 15/1 on offer. Look for her to be giving the leaders a few lengths in the run before flying over the closing stages.
Barrier 5 holds Aurora At Sea, a filly who has clearly overcome a slight form slump towards the end of her two tear old season, and who finished the year off with a performance which, like most of her early career, indicates she is well placed in this event. A scratchbred daughter of Northern Afleet / Southern Halo / Mummy’s Pet, owned and trained by kindnews, she showed gradual improvement as she advanced her way through her early races, proving herself capable at every level. Excuses could be made three starts back, when contesting the G2-Camlaw Stakes in
Stormlear begins from barrier 6, bringing plenty of black type experience with her, having had the most recent six of her total of seven runs against the better classes of two year olds. Following victories in each of her first two, including against a full field in the G3-Television Sstakes, her form tapered for the next three before re-igniting for her last two. The mid career slump though was not as severe as it perhaps look, given that she finished mid-field each time, and one of the races was the G1-World Cup Juvenile Filly Sprint. Stormlear is a scratchbred daughter of Fantasticat / Storm Boot / Lear Fan, bred and trained by xssessivx. The fact that she’s failed to greet the judge in her last five runs presents connections with a degree of concern, but balancing the ledger are points such us her victory against graded competition, a feat achieved by only one other entrant in the event, and the very sold 91 speed figure she posted last time out. At this time of year we often find that the birthday has not been kind to some talented juveniles. That’s not likely to be the case here. There’s a danger that she may find herself posted wide in the early charge for the lead, but since she lines up as the second rated qualifier for the race, the 11/1 on offer appears overly generous.
In gate 7 we find the early market favorite, Miscalculation. One of the anomalies of this race is that virtually all the runners have produced sub-par performances during their juvenile seasons, and that those stumbles tend to undermine confidence when it comes to the bigger stage. Such concerns do not exist here, and as such the respect of the odds assessors has been totally earned. There is not a lot you can say about an unbeaten filly on the way up. Superbly placed in her three runs to date, she’s given her opponents a start and a beating on all three occasions. Those looking for flaws may point out the small fields in the two stakes races, and the fact that others have recorded smarter speed ratings. But you can only defeat the opposition that turns up to meet you, and there are no bonuses for big winning margins. Miscalculation is a superbly put together scratchbred daughter of Unbridled’s Song / A.P. Indy / Storm Cat. Owner breeder fanatical has done everything right up to here, and there is no reason to suggest the filly will not continue on her winning way.
Taking The Rap starts from 8. No stranger to the track, she comes to the races to start her three year old season, having faced the starter ten times as a juvenile. She’s dropping back in distance here after finding the eight and a half furlongs of the G1-Mistletoe too big a challenge. That run may have been an uncharactistically poor run, however, as the start prior she powered over the mile in 1.36.0. Her win in an ungraded stake in
Stall 9 is the starting slot for Storm E Mesa, a proven performer in the graded ranks, and carrying the enviable record of never missing the podium in eight previous runs on the unaffected dirt surface. Last time out she finished down the field in the G2-Mistaken Soda Identity Stakes, but as a result of that one off poor performance, it’s probably fair to conclude that she like’s the track to be fast. Storm E Mesa is a daughter of Sky Mesa, the first foal of Raiders Wedding (Secret Claim / Storm Cat), a winner of two minor races from 22. She boasts a second and two thirds from three Graded runs on top of the ground, establishing her credentials at this level. Looking for concerns, she’s won just the two races, the more recent being in a minimum sized field of four. Balancing that is the quality of opposition she’s faced on most visits to the track. Starting prices and field sizes from most of her races prove that she’s lined up against some talented opponents, and that the fact that she’s acquitted herself admirably at every run (we’re ignoring the off track) points towards her yet again putting in a solid effort. Breeder / trainer bmr003 will expect her to be mixing it with the backmarkers early on, before motoring home when it counts.
Gate 10 is the starting position for Just One Breath, returning to Graded racing on the back of three consecutive wins at ungraded stakes and allowance levels. With a record of four wins from seven, couple with her recent excellent form, she must be taken seriously here. Of minor concern is the fact that her best speeds are still somewhat shy of the likely requirement this weekend, but more than balancing that, at least in the three most recent starts, is the obvious fact that one needs to go only just fast enough to beat the opposition. They don’t pay bonuses for speed ratings or winning margins. Just One Breath is a daughter of Lemon Drop Kid, from The Ripper (Wild Again / Easy Goer). Mum was a stakeswinner and she’s passing on her talent through her offspring. Her first foal Miss You Hate You (
Silver City Gal begins from the number 11 stall, and the depth and stength of the field is demonstrated clearly by her position in betting. She’s far and away the top qualifier for this race, with more than double the stakes points of any other runner, but when it comes to the morning line, she’s not as well respected as her record would lead us to expect. The only Grade 1 winner in the event, there are five runners ahead of her in the market, with another three sharing her quote of 10/1. Did she peak too early? Has she left her best runs on the juvenile form page? We’ll find out this week, but lets look at her last four runs, all of which have been at Grade 1 level. She took out the G1-Horsehead Juvenile, was then beaten less than two lengths in the G1-World Cup Juvenile Filly Sprint, didn’t handle the extra distance in the G1-Breeders Bowl and was midfield but less than four lengths from winner in the G1-Thmxsslew Handicap. That’s not real bad form for a top rated filly dropping in class. Silver City Gal is a scratchbred daughter of Silver Train / Carson City / Roberto. squity has done a superb job with placement throughout her career, and the decision to step the # 2 rated sprinting filly back a notch in class may be just the tonic required.
Barrier 12 is the starting place for Derelect Noonan, a most impressive young sprinting filly who tested the Graded waters over the mile last time out in the G2-Boca Stakes. Far from disgraced there, she fought the race right out to the wire, eventually running fourth. She drops back from eight and a half furlongs to the sprint here, and this is where here recent form stands out. Her three most recent sprint starts have all resulted in victory, twice in allowances, and once in an ungraded stakes, where, two starts back, she wired the field by four lengths. With just seven runs prior to this, her career is going from strength to strength, and in a race where several of her opponents are not past throwing in the inexplicable shocker, her dirt sprint form has been exemplary. She’s won four with a second from five under these conditions. Derelect Noonan is a daughter of the lightly used but most capable young sire Johar, from Mine Deelites (Narghile / Nijinsky), a winner of two from eleven, in her short career with phartlap6. The filly will not be looking to lead, which is a positive in this speed filled field, but she won’t be far away and is more than capable of keeping her sprinting intact.
From 13 comes Bassett Girl, the most highly experienced runner in the race, having been to the track on eleven occasions as a juvenile. She had no problem at all coping with the heavy work load, greeting the judge on five occasions and underlining her versatility by scoring black type wins on both surfaces. She rounded out the year with a stakes win at her final two year old appearance, returning a speed figure which proves she is still on her way up. Of some minor concern is the statistic surrounding her graded form. She’s gone home without a check just twice in those eleven runs, and they were her only two previous tilts at Graded competition. Offsetting that is the fact that one of those Graded runs was at the route distance (where’s she’s missed the podium at both starts) and the other was contested on the grass. Perhaps the greatest argument for her chances comes by studying her efforts under the conditions of this week’s event. She finished second in a full field of fourteen at her first career run, but since then has raced four times in dirt sprints for four wins. Bassett Girl is a daughter of Woodman from Turcat (Turkoman / Storm Cat), first foal of a disappointing winner of just one from 23. Raced by her breeder, jockster, she’s in grave danger of being carted wide early in the rush for the lead, but if she can get across and have things her own way, she’s a most definite threat.
Terri Irwin jumps from the outside gate, and appears to be facing a solid task, given that her only victories have come in restricted allowances, while her half a dozen attempts at black type contests have resulted in just a couple of second placings in minimum sized ungraded fields. That’s the bad news. Looking a little deeper, her recent performances under the conditions she faces this week make the formline look somewhat stronger. She’s won twice, with two seconds at her most recent four dirt sprint outings. The two seconds were the aforementioned small stakes fields, but overall those efforts are strong enough to justify the connections making a case for this tougher event. Terri Irwin is a daughter of Langfuhr, based on Quick Silver (Sunday Silence / Brave Shot), a maiden retired after just five starts. hardygirl is setting her a ‘make or break program’, backing up her from the down the track effort in the G1-Mistletoe, and although I can’t see her atop the podium, a solid run is would not be a surprise.
Summary: The oddsmakers have had their problems framing the market, and I’m having my share in trying to sort it out. It’s one of those races. There is not a runner in the event incapable of taking home the major slice of the pie. But we’re here to have a go, so let’s try. 10/1 seems a ridiculous price for the only Grade 1 winner in the field. It’s rare to get luxury odds for the clear top pick in the qualification order, so Silver City Gal gets the nod for first. I love runners with consistency, especially if they represent value. Miscalculation, Storm E Mesa, Derelect Noonan, Dream Thief and Basset Girl have all finished on the podium in every dirt sprint conducted on a fast track. Derelect Noonan for second and Bassett Girl third, based on value. Having said that, I’m not willing to admit I got it wrong, unless Terri Irwin salutes, and then I definitely got it wrong
The Market:
6/1 – Miscalculation
8/1 – Taking the Rap
9/1 – Storm Forecast, Dream Thief, Storm
Qualification Order (Class Rating Position):
Stormlear – 21
Storm
Just One Breath – 60