German Derby G1
A field of ten three year olds line up for the Grade One German Derby this weekend. The mile and a half race carries a $750,000 purse and will be run over a firm turf course. This is not the strongest field of three year olds with nine of these horses never having run this distance before and only one of them a previous graded winner. That said it could be a breakthrough race for a number of horses, especially some of them who are very lightly raced. Let’s take a look at the field.
1 Orphans In the Sky 9/1
Full disclosure – this is my horse. He was entered in a NW3L Alw at a mile and a half and when looking for a race to write up for the BTB I saw this one and thought it was a weak field so I switched him to this race. He has two wins and two thirds from nine starts, only one of those wins on turf. He has done better routing than sprinting but has never been farther than a mile and an eighth. In three starts this year he has only run on the dirt and his best finish was a third. So why did I enter him? His three turf routes all came when he was a two year old and his mile maiden win was pretty strong. After that win I immediately got greedy and entered him in a grade one where he finished sixth but closed strongly towards the end. Instead of running him in an allowance I started him in a listed next where he finished fourth. He had a three month layoff over the winter and that thought that he has not run back on turf this year makes him a wild card. He’s a son of turfer Lancaster Bomber (by War Front) out of a stakes winning Frankel x Street Cry mare who was also best on turf. The mare has not produced well so far but her two year old debuted last week and ran a very promising second. I’m taking a flyer here but that’s what makes the game fun.
2 Send It In Army 4/1
Favored here is Send It In Army, a colt with three wins and three seconds from nine starts, all on turf and most routing. He enters off a very impressive win in a listed stakes at a mile and a quarter where he ran a 106 speed. In that start he was towards the back early before making a strong move in the stretch run. He improved his speed seven points from his previous race, a second in another listed going a mile and three sixteenths, suggesting that the increase in distance really suited him. He’s a scratchbred son of Gleneagles x Kris S. x Kingmambo which is an obviously strong turf pedigree. One thing to consider as he adds another two furlongs to his last race is that Gleneagles was best sprinting and up to a mile. Kingmambo was also a miler although he certainly sired horses who could go much farther. Is Send It In Army going to be able to get that extra two furlongs or is a mile and a quarter his niche distance? Either way he’s a classy colt who could win this race even if it is not his best distance.
3 Tete Iodhar 6/1
Tete Iodhar finished third in the listed won by our favorite Send It In Army in his last start. That ten furlong race was his stakes debut and first race beyond a mile and three sixteenths and he improved his speed from a 90 in his allowance previous start to a 104 in the stakes. He’s a front runner who never really opened up the kind of lead he is used to in the listed and faded slightly in the stretch. Adding the two furlongs may allow him to kick away from the field and he has been in the money in seven of eight career starts, all in turf routes. He’s a son of Roaring Lion, a son of Kitten’s Joy who was European Horse of the Year in 2018. He did his best running around a mile and a quarter although he was quality enough to stay on for third in the Epsom Derby. Sadly Roaring Lion died after servicing only one crop. Tete Iodhar is out of a graded placed, stakes winning daughter of Loep de Vega x Rock of Gibraltar. He is her first foal but she is a full sister to Champion Tete Fanapath who was best at marathon distances on dirt. His third dam also produced three graded winners so this is a very strong female family to rely on.
4 Deathcrush 19/1
Longest shot in the field is Deathcrush, a colt with only four starts under his belt. He won his debut in December on the turf sprinting before being stretched out to a mile in an allowance where he finished fourth. He was gelded in January and returned in April on the dirt running a mile and three sixteenths and then a mile and a quarter in allowances. He finished second and third respectively in those races. He ran a 95 speed in that first start but dropped precipitously to an 86 in the second. He’s a total wildcard given he’s never won routing but has run okay albeit on dirt. He’s a son of Heart’s Cry out of a Samum x Montjeu mare which is a strong turf long pedigree. He’s the only son of his dam who was all dirt.
5 Paleosaurus 6/1
Paleaosaurus is coming off two straight wins – a nine furlong maiden special weight and a first level allowance at a sixteenth of a mile longer. He only has five starts to his credit and only four of those were on turf. He ran 97 and 98 speeds in those wins although his style changed from the first race to the second. In his maiden win he was well back in the field early but in the second he was much closer to the early pace. He’s a scratchbred son of Teofilo x Dynaformer x Nijisnky II so you have to assume he can get the distance with ease and might even want to go more.
6 Capaneus 8/1
The only horse in this field to actually have experience at the distance is Capaneus. In his last start he finished second in the Grade One Adelaide Derby with a 102 speed. He was only beaten three parts of a length after tracking the early lead and taking the lead in the stretch. That was the first time he hit the board in a graded race, although the two he tried previously were at much shorter distances. He did finish third in a listed going a mile and three sixteenths three starts back. Although his speed in the Adelaide Derby was not as strong as others in this field it was a good number considering it was his first try at such a long distance. He’s a son of Awesome Again out of the stakes winning Giant’s Causeway x Sadler’s Wells mare Noastradamus. She was based on the Champion Urko’s King who was a pure sprinter!
7 Dept of Mysteries 7/1
Another horse whose extended female family has produced a number of stakes and graded winners is Dept of Mysteries. He’s a son of Shamardal based on the graded placed stakes winning Fastnet Rock x Dynaformer hemare Ministry of Magic. Ministry of Magic did his best running in turf marathons and he was based on a grade two winner. Dept of Mysteries enters off an impressive allowance win going a mile and five sixteenths with a 99 speed. In that race he pressed the early leader before drawing off to win by four lengths. He’s got three wins and two seconds from six starts with his only off the board finish coming in his only graded run back in January.
8 Sparkling Demeanor 9/2
The only horse with a graded win in this field is second choice Sparkling Demeanor. The son of Pivotal also holds the highest speed run by any horse in this race. He’s got a 7-5-2-0 record. The only chink in his armor is that the longest he’s run is a mile and three sixteenths. That was the second of three races he’s won in a row, a listed stakes where he stalked the early place before taking the lead in the stretch and running away from them. He followed up that win with a nine furlong grade two win where he ran a 109 speed in his win. In that race he was much further back early on but closed with heart to win by three quarters of a length. He’s out of a stakes winning daughter of Fusaichi Pegasus x Saint Ballado mare. He’s the second grade two winner for the mare who aslo has produced four stakes winners from sixteen foals.
9 Kymar Kedwell 8/1
Kymar Kedwell is an interesting horse. He’s four for four with a sprint win and three wins at a mile. His last race was a listed which he won by stalking the early lead before making a move down the stretch to win with a 102 speed. He’s a son of the South African stallion Mambo in Seattle out of a stakes winning Oasis Dream x Sadler’s Wells mare. Just by looking that those first two stallions a mile and a half does not seem an ideal distance and personally I don’t like jumping a horse up in distance more than two furlongs at a time. He is the mare’s second foal.
10 Majoring 7/1
Majoring has never been out of the money in seven starts but only has two career wins. He ran his best race in his most recent start, a mile and five sixteenths listed stakes. He closed from over seven lengths back to lose by just three quarters of a length with a 97 speed. That was his stakes debut and it was a really solid race. In his previous start he was much closer to the early pace before taking the lead around the final turn and opening up in the stretch. That was an allowance at a mile and three sixteenths. He’s a son of Sebring whose best sim offspring is the amazing Spiced Turtle who was a specialist at this distance. He’s out of a stakes winning Daiwa Major x Dubai Millennium mare. He’s her fifth foal, the first was a grade one winning mare by New Approach.
Good luck to all!
Thanks again for the writeup!