Top Three Turf Route Fillies Headline Penn Debutante
Race 10 on this week’s Delpenn card is the Penn Debutante. It’s the first of the Grade 1’s which have collectively drawn the cream of our horses to this program which is now entrenched as a sim institution. A program which rounds out the season of major racing, and a program which so often makes or breakers the various contenders in their quests for eclipse immortality. Having said that, whether this particular event will have any bearing on the Eclipse awards remains to be seen, but a couple of trainers will be far more confident in their quest for the elusive Eclipse Award, should their fillies taste victory. We’re here to take an in-depth look at this feature event: a mile turf challenge for the three year old female brigade which carries a most impressive million dollar purse.
As expected, the cream of the class has turned up for the day. First second and third ranked turf route fillies have accepted, and although a number of top ranked fillies are not represented, the race lacks nothing in quality, as a number of well deserving, if lesser performed animals accept the challenge to step out against the elite
Let’s work through the formguide for the race:
Drawn the inside we find Infernal Tutor, lining up with a last start Grade 3 performance which has made all race assessors look up and take note. If we forgive her second last run, her recent form is most impressive. Returning a rating of 111 when second in the G2- Roberto Clement Handicap, she then took out the G2-The Prabha Special, before that inexplicable flop, finally rounding out her preparation for this with almost three lengths to spare, when tackling the older girls for the first time in the G3-Ida Ore Stakes. But, understandably, it’s that run two starts back which creates some animated discussion at the bar.
“That was nine furlongs, she’s a miler”, say those who think she can upset the favorite. “She’s won over ten, so that’s no excuse. It’s the Grade 1 company she can’t handle”, say her opponents, and so it goes.
“Just an off day”,
“Not up to top quality”
“Will benefit from the experience. Heaps of great horses flop first time in G1’s”
“Look at the bloodlines – She should be towing a milkcart!”
One thing we can be sure of. She’s adding plenty of interest to the race. An inexpensive scratchbred filly, Infernal Tutor carries the blood of Moulin / Trempolino / Apalachee. In her eight wins from fifteen, lender has trained her to within one step of the top. The inside draw will assist greatly if her top class rider chooses to lead and she may well take that one step this weekend.
Nook Queen begins from the number 2 stall, and her major claim to fame is simply that she has the carries the longest current winning streak into this event, having won on each of her most recent six trips to the track. Of course, Grade 1 racing is a totally different kettle of fish to allowances and ungraded stakes, but the way she’s been cleaning them up recently, it would take a very brave handicapper to underestimate her chances. Nook Queen is a beautifully bred daughter of Kingmambo, from Nook (Nureyev / Riverman). The dam has earned her position in sim history, being one of the few to chalk up the magical 100 starts. Sadly, as a racemare she failed to live up to her bloodlines, winning just twice and banking less than 75k. All’s forgiven though, as she’s turned it around in the breeding shed, producing this winner of nine of her dozen starts to date. perko1 is showing no fear as he sends the filly out to tackle the cream of the class, and the bookmakers have also been most impressed with her form. The fact that she’s registered solid triple digits in all six of her current winning streak, has influenced the oddsmakers far more than the lower standard of those races. They’re taking no chances, and the 6/1 on offer appears somewhat short for a filly with a lot still to prove. That’s not to detract from her chances of course, just in the eyes of this assessor, there should be a more generous quote on offer for a stakes filly taking on Grade 1 proven opponents for the first time.
Lady’s New Cause starts from 3, and her consistent recent racing, albeit at a lower level, makes it clear that she’s not here simply to make up the numbers. Any filly boasting five wins and five seconds from just a dozen starts deserves her chance at the highest level, and although she’s picked a race full of the absolute cream, she’s racing well enough to give them all something to think about. Interesting to note the two races where she failed to finish first or second. After an impressive beginning to her career, ladyssecre stepped her up to Graded company for her fourth run. Not disgraced there (sixth of ten) she returned to an allowance for a confidence builder then to an ungraded stakes, before a second tilt at Graded class. Fifth of fourteen there showed that she was not far away, and in her last four outings, she’s finished second in both the G3-Diana Classic, and the G3-Red Bird Handicap. Those results are perhaps not sufficiently impressive to expect her to leap to victory in this Grade 1, but with half a dozen consecutive triple digits on the form page, she’s worthy of, and is given in the markets, plenty of respect. Lady’s New Cause is, not surprisingly, a daughter of
Silver Glory jumps from 4, taking a huge step as she looks to put together a string of thee consecutive victories. Her only previous tilt at grade 1 racing saw her finish midfield back in July when contesting
From 5 comes Xtra Smart, racing in superlative form at lower levels and deserving of plenty of respect, despite choosing a tough assignment for her first tilt at Grade 1 racing. Contesting significantly lower class for the first nine of her eleven races, she collected a check in every turf run, winning three times and scoring two podium finishes in ungraded stakes. It’s her most recent two runs, however, which command more respect. Promoted to Graded racing in
Gate 6 is the starting position for The Edge. Like several of her opponents here, she lines up this week following a blinder last time out, when she covered the eight and a half furlong trip in 1.41.4, taking out an ungraded stake by a comfortable two lengths and returning a speed rating of 109. Her last two appearances at this lofty level have done little to entice enthusiasm, but if we retrace to earlier in the year, she was most competitive at
From 7 comes Torch The Flame, currently rated number two in this division, she’s been given the nod by the oddsmakers, and carries favoritism in the morning line at 5/1. She has certainly had a year to remember, winning six of her dozen runs and finishing in the money on another five occasions. Twice this year, she’s put together strings of three straight, taking out two ungraded races, before landing the G2- Storm Dog Stakes back in June. Then in August and September she repeated the effort, winning the G2-Roberto Clemente Handicap, the G3-Diana Classic and the G1-World Cup Ladies Turf Mile. That most recent Grade 1 win against the older mares underlines her class, while the string of six consecutive triple digits (three above 110) franks her consistency. A member of the ultra strong super conglomerate, Torch the Flame is a daughter of Kingmambo, from Gordies Seattle (Seattle Slew / Alydar), a three times Graded placed winner of six from twenty seven. Half brother Torch Song (Woodman) was a Graded winner at two, but this filly has far surpassed the achievements of the rest of the family. The only question mark surrounds her two most recent runs. Towards the end of a solid year, she’s finished third, both times behind fillies she meets here. She’ll settle close up, in the firing line all the way, and is sure to run a bold race yet again.
Theory of Love lines up in 8, and she’s something of an enigma here, as her recent return to the turf has seen her add many lengths to her previous ability, bringing her into this event as something of an unknown quantity. Her career began on the turf where three runs saw her win the maiden and perform moderately in a small field stakes race. Tried on the dirt, she was once again above average, collecting an allowance and an ungraded stake. It’s her three most recent starts, however, which create the interest for this event. In late September she ran 1.34.4, when returning a 109 in winning the ungraded stake at the tough
Barrier 9 finds Nothin’ To Lose, a three year old filly with a most impressive ten wins from seventeen starts, and an established member of the Grade 1 club, having tasted success at the ultimate level two starts back. Her victory in late September, when convincingly outclassing a dozen opponents in
Zalba exits the 10 barrier and is another talented young filly taking an enormous leap in class after establishing herself with a string of solid performances in the lower ranks. In the money ten of her fifteen starts, while banking just shy of $150,000, she’s shown that she can post smart times, registering a 107 when victorious against allowance company three starts back. She’s going to need to reproduce that, and probably better it by a length or two, to feature the closing stages here. Of real concern is her black type record. She’s had just the two runs in ungraded stakes, for a second and a third. The fact that she’s yet to win at that lower level makes it hard to see her as a serious threat to multiple Grade 1 winners. Zalba is a scratchbred daughter of Montjeu / Graustark / Mill Reef, bred and raced by
Boc Dragonball Z exits the 11 gate, and gets a run here solely due to the fact that there were 14 nominations for the race. A solid allowance performer, she’s never previously set foot on the black type stage, but I guess connections need to be congratulated for spotting the vacancy and filling it. She’s managed a triple digit speed rating once in her sixteen starts, but comes into this unplaced at her two most recent runs. Boc Dragonball Z is a daughter of King Kamehameha from Golden Connection (Theatrical / Danehill). Mum won a couple of inconsequential races in her sixteen tries for four trainers. This lordpye6 bred and trained filly has outscored her dam, but as I can’t find any more nice things to report, I’ll end here
Culinary Cutie has drawn 12. Where do we start? In real life a filly racing in her current form would have scared off half the opposition. She comes into this race with nothing to prove from this year’s efforts. Ranked top of her division, she’s been top three in all of her races since March, she’s made the transition from two year old stakeswinner to three year old to open aged female competition at the top level, and has met and accounted for much of the cream of next year’s likely opponents, and drops back to her own age division here. If we just discuss her last run, clearly a repetition almost guarantees her the win. 1.33.2 for the mile in a comfortable two length victory in the G1- Breeders Bowl Mile, returning a 118 was a simply awesome display. Perhaps fortunately for her opponents, only once in her career has she previously put consecutive wins together, so there is at least a glimmer of light along the tunnel for those taking her on here. That’s a fact perhaps not lost on the bookmakers, as they offer the ridiculously generous price of 6/1. Now to her year on the racetrack: Nine starts for five wins and three more ITM’s. In a superb training effort, after winning two races over the mile in ungraded stakes (with a dirt experiment sandwiched between), buzz threw her in at Grade 1 level where she ran her worst ever race. Returning her to lower graded events, she matured superbly and has now lined up in Grade 1 contests for her most recent four starts, winning twice, with second and third at the other two. Culinary Cutie is a daughter of El Prado, based on West of Slew, (Gone West / Seattle Slew), himself a Grade 1 winner of almost 1.5 million dollars. His daughter has surpassed even his excellent standards as she races herself into the sim history books. In this scribe’s opinion she is the measuring stick.
Barrier 13 holds Buda For a Day, looking to round out her superb year with a fourth win at the elite Grade 1 level. Following an unprecedented patch of four races without greeting the judge, she burst back into serious contention last time out with a flashing victory in the G1-Rock of Cashel, flying from near the rear to win convincingly. This is a top quality field, and this filly boasts the rare coupling of versatility and adaptability which will see her not disadvantaged, no matter what sorts of tactics her opponents adopt. Equally capable as either a sprinter (where she ranks #1 in the division) or miler, she’s also proven that she a force to be reckoned with either racing on the pace or from the rear. An interesting side note on the form page is that she’s really only failed once at this distance or shorter. Her three poor runs against quality opposition have all come when she’s tried to extend beyond the mile. Buda For a Day is a daughter of Dayjur, from the magnificently bred Vicky’s Gal (Storm Cat / Seattle Slew), a mare who, although stakes placed twice in her racing career, has done far more from the breeding shed, where she’s developed into one of the sim’s most impressive producers. Her other issue includes Graded placed stakeswinner Danzig’s Buda (Danzig), stakes placed Storm of Buda (Forty Niner) and stakes winning (from just four starts) two year old Rock the Buda (Rock Hard Ten). With all four runners still active in the vicki barn, the family continues to provide ongoing success and enjoyment. This filly, the pride of a most talented family, is a top chance to add the Penn Debutante trophy to this years collection which includes the G1-1000
From the outside barrier emerges Mendela, a winner of eight from eighteen and a bank balance in excess of $430,000. Scratchbred, carrying the blood of Alberto Giacommetti / Dubai Millennium / Nashua, her formguide shows consistent, impressive results at all levels through to Grade 2, but a worrying statistic in that the only two races of her career where she’s gone home empty handed, were her two previous runs in Grade 1 events. At the end of her two year old season, she loomed on the forefront of greatness, having won four consecutive black type races, culminating in the G2-Silver Spoon Juvenile. Connections may well be a tad disappointed, looking back on 2007, that he hasn’t made the transition to Grade 1 greatness. It’s been a solid year however, with podium finishes in the G3-Panhandle Park Oaks, G3-Traingular Star Stakes and G3-Panhandle Oaks. She’s taken home a check on nine of eleven trips to the races and is scoring consistent triple figure ratings in recent outings. The market is keeping her relatively safe at 15/1, and even trainer / breeder bossross would begrudgingly concede that her juvenile form has contributed to the level of respect being shown by the oddsmakers. She’s another of the brigade which would surprise if victorious, but would not surprise with a competitive performance.
Summary: My first shock came with the early market. I’m astounded that Culinary Cutie is not the favorite, but pleasantly surprised in that I’m now more than happy to tip her to win. She doesn’t just head her division, she’s currently thrashing the opposition. She lines up here carrying 316 stakes points, while second placed Torch The Flame has 205 and Buda For a Day, third has earned 201. She’s not the only runner to have cleaned up against the older division, but she did so in the premier event on the calendar for open aged female turf milers. Her 1.33.2 in that race is a good three lengths superior to any other performance ever produced by an opponent. Of course, this is horse racing, and past performances often count for nothing on the day. Buda For A Day has won three times at Grade 1 level in 2007, and her recent form is as good as ever. I’m putting her in for second. Looking to add value to the trifecta, Theory of Love looks way better than the 15/1 on offer, and at that price she’d make a great across the board play, while Torch the Flame has had a great season and may well make me regret omitting her from the top picks while Infernal Tutor is another which could win without causing this writer any surprise. In a most competitive event, genuine chances must also be given to Nook Queen (going for seven straight), Lady’s New Cause (six consecutive triple digits), Xtra Smart (great run in Panhandle Oaks), The Edge (Superb last time out), and Nothin’ To Lose (recent Grade 1 winner). Silver Glory, Zelba and Mendela are rough outside chances, while if pye’s filly wins, I’ll cut his lawn with a pair of nail scissors.
The Market:
5/1 – Torch The Flame
6/1 – Nook Queen, Culinary Cutie
7/1 – Buda For A Day
8/1 – Lady’s New Cause
Qualification Order (Class Rating Position):
Culinary Cutie – 1
Torch The Flame – 2
Buda For A Day – 3
Infernal Tutor – 12
The Edge – 13