Bluegrass Derby – It’s Never too Soon
With the 2007 racing season coming to a close, much of the racing world’s attention will now focus on the three year old colts and their run to the Triple Crown.
Scanning the top twenty colts in the 3yo Classic Route Division, you already notice a separation from the top 2yo’s and the rest of the hopefuls. Some of these horses, with the luck of the racing gods, will continue their domination leading up to the 3yo Classics, while other succumb to the consequences of a rigorous campaign, and those who will benefit from the Derby Lock races as the Bluegrass Derby draws near. In the end, only one will be declared the top three-year old colt on that first Saturday in May.
Lets take an early peek at some of the top contenders.
FLEET DAISY (AFLEET ALEX x AFFIRMED x NUREYEV) trained by opus, has positioned himself as the early favorite to take home the roses, and rightfully so, by virtue of his outstanding victory in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile. His Dosage Index 1.67 and Center of Distribution .50 indicate that this potential Juvenile Champion will do his best racing covering a distance of ground. With a leg up on the competition for an Eclipse Award, it should be noted that every Eclipse Award winning 2yo dirt Champion has made the Bluegrass field with the exception of CHAMBERLAIN, who was never the same horse after a brilliant 2yo campaign.
BROADWAY DANCER (KINGMAMBO x DEPUTY MINISTER x ALYDAR) trained by super20 ranks 2nd among the top two year olds, and distinguishes himself with a victory over FLEET DAISY in the G1-World Cup Juvenile Colt Mile. Stalking DE FU every step in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile, he was unable to overcome that rival in the final 100 yards, both giving way to late closing rivals. Distance restrictions could be a factor with a Dosage Index 3.00 and Center of Distribution .91, but this promising young colt is in more than capable hands.
ZABEEL WARRIOR(AUS) (UKOK WARRIOR (AUS) x RANSOM CALLING x ZABEEL(NZ)) trained by hewett is not what you would call your classic bred horse, nonetheless this talented Australian bred has sure run like one sporting a Grade I victory in the G1-Sparkling Wine Stakes in New York in October. Throw out his last start over an off track and this colt has hit the board in every start, with a propensity for stalking the leaders and looking them dead in the eye in the stretch. Another whose pedigree has no distance limitations, Dosage Index 1.40 and Center of Distribution .25, this capable juvenile may continue to surprise in the weeks to come.
ALYDAR AGAIN (AWESOME AGAIN x NORTHERN BABY x ALYDAR) trained by texasace04 made his presence felt with a furious stretch drive to capture the 1 1/8 G1 Arizona Diamond 8th Running. This explosive colt ran to his dosage figures DI 1.86 CD .70 over the off going in Arizona and could easily become the betting favorite given his already demonstrated ability to handle the corners and run them down to in the stretch. Already looking like my early choice. Did I mention my track record?
PYRALIS (BANDINI x FOREST WILDCAT x WILD AGAIN) trained by kbsweet finished 2nd to FLEET DAISY in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile earning his 5th place ranking amongst the top 2yo candidates. A rigorous 2yo campaign may have caught up with him in his last start, finishing far back in the G2-Club Stakes at 1 1/16, and despite a strong showing against the top rated colt, I’m not so sure his Dosage Index 3.67 and Center of Distribution 1.07 (reminiscent of LITERARY GOD in 2006, DI 3.67 CD .93) is going to get him the 10 panels he needs in Kentucky.
GHOST IN A DANCER (GHOSTZAPPER x STORM CAT x FAPPIANO) trained by triscay is the epitome of the term blueblood. This wonderfully bred colt made amends for his start in the G1-World Cup Juvenile Colt Mile with a rallying 3rd place finish in the G1-World Cup Juvenile Colt Mile, after dominating the 2yo division early in the racing season. This late running colt does flirt with a dosage that might present some distance limitations with a DI of 3.00 and a CD of .81, but his late running style could help him overcome that disadvantage with fast fractions in front of him.
SUITED AK(JPN) (DAVID JUNIOR x MISWAKI x COZZENE) trained by chilichili has made a name for himself after returning to the dirt around two turns with an Allowance win in Minnesota followed by a win in the 1 1/16 St-The MOMENTARY QUEST Memorial in Alabama three back. A 3rd place finish in the G1-Sparkling Wine Stakes and 2nd place finish in the 1 1/8 G1-The Arizona Diamond 8th Running has earned him the last triple digit ranking in the 2yo Classic Route Division. Sporting the classic dosage figures DI 2.33 CD .55 for the 1 ¼ the Japan bred son of freshman sire David Junior could receive some serious consideration in the coming races ahead.
Horses 8 through 20 in the rankings range from 86 to 51 stakes points, all capable of breaking into the top ten as things start to heat up in January, when three year olds battle for position in the rankings, and only the top 20 will make their way into the starting gate in Kentucky in the 2008 Bluegrass Stakes.
Stay tuned for more features as we countdown to the 2008 Bluegrass Derby Watch.