Sinanju goes for the Victory
In recent years 3 and 4yos have taken the Victory Marathon trophy, but odds are on the side of returning the prize to one of the older crew for the first time since 2002 with this year’s running of the British Columbia G3. The six past winners of the race have been a diverse lot, featuring a 6yo (Swampy Honor in 2001), a son of Ron Rivers (2002 winner Jed’s Ground), a classy 3yo filly (Sacrilege in 2003), the only male winner out of a game mare (Auror World in 2004), a 4yo (Pharao’s Tornado in 2005), and another 4yo in 2007 (Credit Given). The stakes recordis held by Sacrilege, who completed the race in 3:00.2 on an off track.
The favorite in this year’s renewal of the 14f dirt race is the 5yo Sinanju. He’s making his first stab at the Victory, but this is one very classy horse with a penchant for long races. Frosty’s star son of Rahy has earned over $1.5mil in 35 starts, but still keeps trucking along t the highest levels. He finished second by a slim nose in the G2 Breeders Bowl Uncard Marathon 5 weeks ago, and before than was second at 12f in the Sim World Cup Marathon. At the 14f distance he’s twice a winner, his only loss a second on an offtrack. In great shape, prepped well, and looks to put in a huge race.
Topicount4’s Pine Spirit beat Sinanju in the SWC, but settled for either in the Uncard Marathon last out. The 3yo Arch colt has found his niche going long, having won four of five starts in that division. This will be his first go at 14, but he’s won so easily at 12 that you have to think he’ll enjoy this distance too. Has no problem beating elders. The pair of 111+ SPs earned this year suggest he’s got the goods to take the Victory.
Purrfect Prospect runs for the Stevemunoz stable, and while this is his first graded start ever, he’s earned a shot. Last out the 4yo Pleasantly Perfect colt rolled to a 3 1/2 length win in the NWRC’s 12f dirt championship stakes. He’s only tried 14f twice, winning an allowance and running fourth in a very tough stake. The 110 he posted last out puts him well within striking distance of Sinanju and Pine Spirit.
Saosin, a 3yo son of North Light, runs for the Adrian stable. The colt is riding a four-race win streak as he makes his graded debut. The 113 he earned last out in winning by nearly 6 lengths at 13f . He’s trying 14 for the first time, and the jump from a previous high of 103 to 113 makes one wonder if a bounce is likely to happen here. Can lead or close as called for.
Dalakh Mogul has to be one of the best Dalakhani offspring the sim has ever seen. Horsestab’s 4yo colt has earned over a quarter-million, and though he’s never entered a graded race on dirt, he is twice a stakes winner in the long division. never finished worse than fifth at 14f, and that fifth was on the grass, making him a perfect 100% ITM on dirt (though winless at 14). He closes really well, and should enjoy getting back up to 14. Only question is whether 14 is long enough.
Farad enters the 3yo Dehere colt Jibe, who won the Uncard Marathon by the smallest of noses over Sinanju last out. he’s one for one at 14f , and has the advantage of versatility here. He can lead, as he did in that 14f stake, or stalk or even come from way back. He’s got two wins from three tries in grades, and looks to be one of 2008’s leading marathoners.
Rama is winless in stakes, but the Super11 trainee still deserves a shot at this big race by virtue of a one for two record at 12f and decent performances at the stakes level. With Kingmambo as a sire you wouldn’t think Rama would love going long, but he’s shown an affinity for a good route of ground and has flashed some talent as he matures. He’s just three, suggesting he’ll come into his full potential next year. Ran fifth in his only graded start, the Federico Tesio at 9f back in April.
Pharao’s Tornado is back looking for his second Victory. He won the race in 2005 by almost two lengths, but skipped it last year in favor of a listed stake (which he won by over 8 lengths). Stars1’s Doyoun 6yo has three wins in the last year, all in listed company. He likes the distance, which is a point in his favor, but seems to be slowing down. Just two 100+ SPs in the last year indicate the old boy is no longer the speed/marathon demon he once was.
Agnelo is a 3yo on with a tough mission ahead. Volereta’s Theatrical youngster just stepped into stakes for the first time last out. He did it very well, notching a win at 2 miles from a strong front-running finish. He’s perfect at 14f, but so far doesn’t have SPs equivalent to the bets of this group.
Paddy’s Cetawayo colt doesn’t yet have quite the same notoriety as his namesake. John Holmes is a very consistent runner, hitting the board 11 times in 17 total starts. He’s yet to run 14, but is a stakes winner at 16, and acquitted himself well with a fifth in his sole graded start (the G1 Derby De Swedish). A pair of 101SPs indicate he’s getting better, but like some of his 3yo peers still needs some more time to develop before we know what he’s really capable of.
Super Chap runs for the Twinoaks stable. The 4yo High Chaparral colt is closing in on $100k in earnings after winning six of 26 starts. He’s two for two at 14f, though both were allowances. Until six weeks ago the colt had a dismal stakes record, never running better than fifth. Last out, however, he finally realized what to do and took home second in a 13f listed stake. he’s clearly on the improve as he finds a home going long distances, but is he really stakes class? We’ll find out.
Hayden’s Fury makes his takes debut at the grand old age of five. Bobby2khw ran the Langfuhr son through every condition possible and then some, but he’s finally getting a workout in the highest class of race. Ten wins from 26 starts says its more than past time. For wins from six tries at 14f, one a 9 1/2 length drubbing, make this a perfect race to test out the horse. Biggest challenge will be the SP issue – he’s hit a triple-digit number just once, but he’s been running so easy there’s been no great need to run big.
We’ve got yet another 3yo entrant in Dynavelox. Trained by Grracers, the Dynaformer colt broke his maiden three back and decide he likes winning, as he took home top prize in the next two races. This is his stakes debut, but when you’ve got a colt that wins by over 6 lengths at 14 and then digs in gamely to win by a nose at 12 a shot at the big time is appropriate. 101 is his best SP, but he’s clearly improving quickly.
The final entrant is Thunderation. Trained by Rihanna, the 3yo Vindication colt already has 20 starts in him, 15 of those this year. he’s on his third owner after taking a trip through claimers and the auction ring. With his current owner he won a 13f stake in September, but has failed to hit the board since. Top SP of 89 will not be competitive in this crowd.
Sinanju and Pine Spirit are the clear class of the field, but Purrfect Prospect and Jibe are worth extra looks. I’m calling this one for the 5yo, Sinanju.