Faceoff in New Mexico
This weekend’s Grade III He’s a Charmer features an unusually deep field for a Grade III. It features some household names from last year as well as some up-and-comers and some solid, steady performers. Put it all together, and there should be a terrific race in the New Mexico desert on December 1.
1 BLINKIN’ 21/1 Nasrullah
Cat Thief daughter has a nice record of hitting the board in 12 of 18 starts. Her only time on the board in a graded race, however, was on an off track. It was a win, true, but she’s had poor showings in graded races since then. A nice, successful filly, but she looks to be out of her depth.
2 DYNAMIN 9/2 Leesnyder
Leesnyder’s Dynaformer mare is second choice on the morning line and is coming off a near-win in a Grade II last time out. She’s not terribly consistent at high levels of competition, but is quite capable of winning a race. Grade Is are her real weakness – she is much more consistently successful when you look at her in Grade II or IIIs. If she can bring her A game this weekend, she should be a factor as they come down the stretch.
3 JUST BEFORE AGAIN 13/1 Chuckrock
Big ouch on her last outing, when she posted a 15 fig in a 10.5 furlong race. The good news is that she was running beautifully heading into that race. Her previous start was a four-length win in a Grade III at this distance. Her soundness will be a big question – is she ready to run a big race after that last disappointment? Although she has questions to answer, I like her quite a bit at the price of 13/1. It’s worth noting that this stellar filly is by a cheap sire, the obscure Pennsylvania stud Just Beforemidnite. It’ll be fun to see how she comes back from that last race.
4 EMPIRE REEF 9/1 Lenny13
Lenny graces New Mexico with the presence of the sublime Empire Reef. No, she’s not what she once was, but this Grade I winner on both surfaces is still an awesome piece of horseflesh. This race looks to be beyond her reach (she’s been looking pretty rough the latter half of this year), but it’s still fun to have her around. And, who knows? These aging horses can surprise from time to time with glimpses of their former form. Add a 25% winning jock, and other trainers would be foolish to ignore the great mare. The ace in the hole for this veteran is that she is pretty much the lone speed in the race – if the tough mare and her ace jock can, they will steal this one from the front.
5 SINNDEE SLEW 10/1 Goody5
This four-year-old filly is a bit of a sleeper at 10/1, but she’s managed second and fourth in her last two graded efforts at this distance. Her speed figs are very nearly what they’ll need to be to hit the board here and her jockey is okay, making her an interesting horse to look at if you’re betting. She’ll come from a few lengths back and with a strong race, she could find herself up on the board again.
6 MADE THE PLANS 7/1 Kaif031
The Kaif empire brings us an exciting filly with 14 starts and 12 times on the board. She’s been progressing nicely in recent starts, culminating with a 111 fig and a win in an overnight stakes. The downside? That race was a smallish field of seven and this weekend will be her first attempt at a graded race. I look forward to seeing what she can do, though my gut says she may need a couple of graded starts under her belt before she performs well at that level. She likes to come from way back, and is unquestionably a mare to keep an eye on through her next few starts.
7 SPOOKY BALLET 7/1 Apmccoy
Spooky is a very capable Silver Ghost daughter with 22 wins in her 49 starts. She’s coming off an impressive win in an overnight stakes, but there are several reasons to think that this race won’t go as well: 1) This will be her 50th start; 2) she hasn’t hit the board in a graded race in over a year; 3) this race is a little short for her; 4) 3% winning jockey. A classy mare on the downside of her career, and not a horse I expect to do well this weekend.
8 MEATBALL HERO 8/1 Bigted2
Another hardworking veteran, this Trempolino mare is on her 46th start. She’s a former graded winner, but has been less stellar in her last few. It looks like wear and tear is taking its toll on her. The upside on her is that she hit the board in a Grade I at this distance just in September. Even more recently, she was fourth in a graded race. So, she could still have a big race in there. Still, I don’t like counting on a mare with this many starts. Don’t be shocked if she gets a piece, but don’t be shocked if she folds.
9 K’S PANACHE 3/1 Kuovadis
The morning-line favorite is a very nice mare with a Grade I win early this year in the Sexy Muffins. But she is on a nasty seconditis streak lately, with three straight seconds in small-field overnight stakes. Her speed figs are right where they need to be and she’s handled tough competition in the past, but those seconds in races that should’ve been easy are real cause for concern. Maybe another second again, or will she regain her will to win?
10 TENACIOUS V 7/1 Peeps4
The race features another heavyweight in the form of 2006 1000 Guineas winner Tenacious V. The four-year-old daughter of Vincation blazed an impressive trail through the sophomore turf filly ranks last year, but she’s had a tougher time in 2007. While she continues to run some big races, she’s hit the board in only one graded stake so this year. She’s coming off a narrow win in an overnight stakes with a six-horse field – running in a good time, though she just barely pulled off the win. She’s had only 28 starts, so she could still have some top races in her, but right now she’s running like a mare a bit past her prime. Maybe her victory last time out will get her confidence up
11 NEUSCHWANSTEIN 14/1 Waremblem8
This Castledale filly has run well as a three-year-old, winning 8 of 14 starts. But she’s been on the board in a graded stakes only once (a win in the Grade II Guineas Trial) and her numbers are not where they’d need to be to win a graded race against her elders. A perfectly nice young mare who hasn’t yet shown that she’s up to this week’s very tough field.
Good luck, everyone!