EVEN IN THE SOUTHERN SKIES THE NORTH STAR SHINES BRIGHT

In this addition we are going to look at Australian sires. The first point to make is finding data of the standard the TDN provides for free was impossible at least from easy Google searching. This though had positive effects in that I took time to understand the data on hand and analyse it even it its basic form.

The data is only for runners in Australia so does not reflect the true worth of a stallion many top horses get sold on for instance to Hong Kong which would improve the stakes winners to runner’s data. The data is basic and only shows stakes winners not the class. Some of the research showed up that the class of a race is not always apparent from it’s grading positive or negative.

The limited data has let me check at what ages the stakes wins from a sire were achieved at this is very useful when looking at maturity. The assumption is always to think Australian racing is about quick developing speed. This is true for certain sires. Others tend to develop more slowly and by default the offspring tend to be sound and take racing well, ideal horses for the game.

The second data check I undertook was to access the rankings of the sires versus the TRC rankings. I have checked Northern Hemisphere sires and there appears a strong correlation between the list produced by TRC and sire stakes horses lists. This should hold true for the Southern Hemisphere. The addition on the TRC list of ratings variables helps us measure quality across regions and race types. This more accurately reflects true ability and helps reduce bias. It would appear using this two years ago a lot of revision in Australian sires in the game so regardless of opinion should be seen in a positive light.

The one factor of the TRC to consider is they rate current form highest. As this is the Australian quiet season this will slightly deflate their sire rankings by a few places. This is more evident lower down the list and for younger stallions.

The game rankings have Australian sires at lower rankings than would be expected. This would suggest there is both opportunity and value in the ranks when breeding in the game. We should not let past results influence us.

I have only looked at the sires with 5 or more graded stakes winners in the 2018/19 Australian racing season.

I AM INVINCIBLE he is a truly exceptional stallion. He had 28 stakes winners only one sire managed more than half that number. His stakes winners to runner’s was 8.33% looking at the list anything over 6% is brilliant. He started off at the low end, but we are now seeing better bred runners coming through. His offspring also improve nicely with age he is no one trick pony. He has everything you want from a stallion. He is currently ranked 8 on the TRC list and with deaths and time of year considerations this looks a realistic level which should be higher. It would be unjust and worrying if come 2020 he is not rated with the top 5 active sires in the game.

NOT A SINGLE DOUBT he is the only sire to get within half the number of stakes winners of I Am Invincible. His percentage of 6.58% is excellent. Again, his wins come across a nice spectrum of ages showing he has a lot to offer in the game. The one factor is his lack of runners for a stallion this age. If you add this to a stud fee that is half his stud mate next on the list, you do wonder if he has any fertility issues. Is this a long-term problem or something developing as he gets older? Are his days numbered in the breeding shed? He is rated at 23 on the TRC list and a game ranking of around the 20 would appear to be very viable.

SNITZEL his prize money winnings would leave him top. This is proof that using this basis is a total waste of time. The results totally distorted by winning one race which has massive prize money and is restricted in its nature. His stakes winning percentage is 3.47% 12 winners which is a long way removed from the stallions above. Hence his TRC ranking is lower at 40 which makes a lot of sense. He probably should sit slightly above that in the game but well below the stallions above the facts do not lie. He again has a nice spread of winners over the ages and should be a very effective stallion in the game.

HIGH CHAPARRAL dead though for anyone from Europe the fact he had as many winners as Snitzel would be a shock. He is helped by two factors buying of older high-class runners from Europe and the fact longer races in Australia are less competitive. The sprints more so. It is impossible to have in the same class of Snitzel even if he was alive and a TRC ranking of 106 seems fair.

SEBRING dead though in a strange way is one of the more interesting sires here. He sired no 2yo stakes winners in the last Australian season though plenty at three. He has a very low TRC rating of 267. Looking into his rating he has only sired two horses with a rating over 110 both long retired so the ranking does therefore appear understandable and reasonable a stake winning percentage of 3.37 is near the bottom as well. He appeared to be over-rated in the game whilst others seem to be under-valued. He really is the stallion who shows understanding the quality of a performance means a lot.

FASTNET ROCK he has been a top-class stallion for a long time. His results spectrum is ideal for a sire in the game at 20/20/60 split showing they improve with age and keep and hold there form well. His stakes winning percentage of 3.62% is below the best. He is though the winning most sire based in Australia in terms of graded stakes wins per TRC over the last three years. This without looking at the statistics behind the results makes him appear the best sire in Australia. His TRC ranking is 29 and around the 25 mark would appear about correct in many ways he is the Australian Tapit and both should be rated around the same.

EXCEED AND EXCEL he is another class sire who has been around a long time. He does well in both hemispheres and has a 30/30/40 split. This does not surprise, and his offspring do mature quicker on average than Fastnet Rock. He has a TRC ranking of 40 which appears to be fair. He is becoming a very though after broodmare sire as well, this again is not a big surprise. If you went to a racecourse paddock with 20 runners in a maiden race with one sired by him and a picture of him, you would be hard pressed not to identify his offspring. He stamps his stock well and is a very good sire in all respects especially in the speed department.

MEDAGLIA D’ORO he is another stallion who has been around a long time and does very well in both hemispheres. His stakes winning spectrum split is interesting 22.22/44.45/33.33. this appears to suggest his offspring do not retain their ability well with age. If this is not in the game ratings it should be incorporated as the ability to do this is there. As a son of El Prado this is not such a great surprise. He has a TR ranking of 13 if you consider living stallions 10. It would be hard to argue given his solid results over many years that he is not near or close to that ranking in the sim. Top class dual hemisphere stallion.

PIERRO he is very much a young sire on the rise. It is at this point no fair to evaluate his maturity spectrum. it is fair to say they do seem to run well from an early age. This should not be surprise when we look at his sire latter. The other striking point to mention is half of his last male graded stakes runners are geldings. There is obviously a temperament issues now we have gelding in the game you would hope sires of his like have similar characteristics. He is rated highly by the TRC at 25 given his start at stud he is a stallion aiming for the higher level of the game rankings.

SMART MISSILE a son of Fastnet Rock and he is early in his carrier as a sire. The offspring are improving from two to three. He does not have a rating on TRC and when you look at the result in terms of rating his highest rated runner 108 it is not a surprise. Most wins seem to be in races over a mile restricted to 3yo’s which to be honest would barely get listed status in the UK. His runner in Hong Kong joint third highest rated horse seems to back that up with his form over there in a very competitive environment. It is very hard to get excited about this stallion at all.

STREET CRY has been dead for a long time but was a high-class stallion now Winx has been retired we will hardly ever hear about him anymore in this capacity.

LOPE DE VEGA he appears of often in my reports and no longer shuttles to Australia the person who owned the Australian interests went bankrupt. He is a top-class sire wherever he goes his TRC rating off 25 is not far off the mark.

LONHRO he has been around for a long time his results though show a significant bias. All his stakes winners in the season were either two or three. This would suggest given his age his offspring mature vey quickly and lose that class just as quick unlike some of the sire already mentioned. If he is not already programmed to do this, it would be useful if his statistics were update. It therefore flows if you have horse’s sired by him race them early race them hard.

WRITTEN TYCOON the first thing to say is the data put up by the stud where he stands is the best, I have seen and should be industry standard. It is excellent. The data backs up what my simple breakdowns appeared to show of a good spread of wins with a bias towards those at ages 4+. The other factor is his recent crops have not done so well, but these followed a breakout period and the resulting foals have not yet run. So hopefully they will see his results bounce back otherwise he is likely to be slightly downgraded. I was shocked to see he is coming up to 18 years old. His TRC ranking of 60 appears reasonable and fair and would be a sensible sim position to hold.

REDOUTE CHOICE has died and for a long time was right at the top of the Australian sire rankings. He is another who’s offspring progressed well and improved with age. Should be a very good dam sire in the game for a long time to come.

ZOUSTAR his shuttle base is only about 10 miles from my home, so it has the effect of creating a wish a sire does well. His early results have been excellent his stakes winning percentage is 4.76% which is at the higher end. What we cannot tell as there is no data is how well and long his offspring will hold their ability. We can see he had more winners at the age three from his first crop and two out of three 2yo winners won stakes at three. He is at this point an exciting prospect who is likely to be getting upgraded in some way or form depending on how high his initial rating was. His TRC rating is 40 and you would expect a reasonably high game ranking as well. Likely to go higher overtime.

HINCHINBROOK has died but would have appeared to be generating a similar profile to his sire Fastnet Rock which is not a bad thing though was not going to be as good.

EPAULETTE has posted some interesting results his stakes winner’s percentage is 6.19% which is top class. Though it is fir to say these are mostly at a lower level. As with Zoustar we cannot be sure how is horses will develop in the future, but they did improve in terms of stakes wins massively from two to three and stamina wise they look the type to improve with age. This is a positive sign as he is a full brother to Helmet who at least from his Northern Hemisphere runners showed a similar profile. They appear to be obtaining more influence from the dam side of the pedigree rather than the sire. They appear to be staying well for Australian bred horses which sort of reinforces the view the dam line is a very important factor. His TRC ranking of 49 seems a bit high, but the stakes winning percentage and ability to sire horses that stay could well keep the profile looking good. Seems to have a lot going for him.

NICCONI he is a sire who’s offspring defiantly improve with age. His recent crops have been getting smaller and the number of stakes winners is low his stakes winning percentage is 2.36% the second lowest on the list. His TRC ranking of 148 does not appear unreasonable and would be a good gauge for the game as well. He appears to be a sire who is probably not winning the fashion battle with younger stallions and his influence will wane. This is all to common all over the world.

UNIVERSAL RULER he is a 10-point game sire with no stakes winners, he is either under rated in the game or under used. His 5 stakes winners at a lower level were achieved at a rate of 5.95% he is obviously better than people perceive. This could be due to the fact he is based in Western Australia. If given better chances would produce much better horses. His ranking of 408 on TRC is probably not unreasonable given all the parameters, even if he had a game rank of 400 for active sire it would probably be a massive jump from where it is now and would be well deserved.

GALILEO is the last sire on the list and has the highest stakes winning percentage at 13.16% you cannot really read anything into that when comparing against the other sires. He should as most of his runners have been purchased to run in longer distance high class races. You are not going to ship a horse without the potential halfway around the world, so this just reflects good selection. It does just emphasis why he is the best stallion out there.